NFL Playoff Machine

[ColtV]

Has anyone messed around with this on the ESPN site. Did this to give my Browns fans colleagues some help(with some help for the Colts too):

 

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

 

[Boiler_Colt]

This is fun to play with. Colts can possibly get in at 9-7 as long as they don't lose to Tennessee but 10-6 would be almost a lock to get in.

[Virtuoso80]

I think we can only afford to lose 1 game either to NYG or DAL not to TENN before we get blocked from the playoffs, if im not mistaken.

 

Edit: also Miami has to lose at least 1 of their next 3 games.

[ColtV]

Maybe the most interesting thing when playing around with this was how much trouble Pittsburgh is in.

 

Games left against New Orleans and New England they then close out the season against Cincinnati

[#12.]

Crazy things do seem to happen the final few weeks, so yeah, it's fun to play around with.  As I mentioned in the other thread, under one scenario, if Houston beats Philly, the Colts miss the playoffs.  If they lose to Philly, the Colts get a bye.  

 

 

[Virtuoso80]

1 minute ago, #12. said:

Crazy things do seem to happen the final few weeks, so yeah, it's fun to play around with.  As I mentioned in the other thread, under one scenario, if Houston beats Philly, the Colts miss the playoffs.  If they lose to Philly, the Colts get a bye.  

 

 

even if houston beats philly colts can still get in the playoffs if miami loses 1 game and we lose one to either dal or nyg and win vs tenn.

[krunk]

Would love to play Houston in the playoffs.  And I wouldn't mind playing Kansas City with Andy Reids playoff history.   I'd just love to make it to the playoffs in general.

[lollygagger8]

9-7, just like the Giants when the went all the way

 

I want to believe! 

[#12.]

Just now, Virtuoso80 said:

even if houston beats philly colts can still get in the playoffs if miami loses 1 game and we lose one to either dal or nyg and win vs tenn.

 

Yeah, I was talking about getting a bye, though.  Believe it or not, there's a scenario where Houston winning/losing one game is the difference between the Colts missing the playoffs and getting a bye.

[ColtV]

4 minutes ago, #12. said:

 

Yeah, I was talking about getting a bye, though.  Believe it or not, there's a scenario where Houston winning/losing one game is the difference between the Colts missing the playoffs and getting a bye.

Yeah I ran into that scenario.

 

 

I am getting nothing productive done today

[compuls1v3]

Just now, ColtV said:

Yeah I ran into that scenario.

 

 

I am getting nothing productive done today

Agreed.  Me too!  Thanks to the OP for sharing this link!!

[NagelHausForge]

Ok this thing is a lot of fun... LOL.  

 

I think it is safe to say, if the Colts win the remaining 3 games (all very winnable) then they will be in in some capacity.  

 

I can't see the Texans losing outright for the rest of the season but from the bit I played around with it, it looks possible (not plausible) that the Colts could very well make that #4 seed with some key losses.

[compuls1v3]

1 minute ago, NagelHausForge said:

Ok this thing is a lot of fun... LOL.  

 

I think it is safe to say, if the Colts win the remaining 3 games (all very winnable) then they will be in in some capacity.  

 

I can't see the Texans losing outright for the rest of the season but from the bit I played around with it, it looks possible (not plausible) that the Colts could very well make that #4 seed with some key losses.

I could see Houston losing to the Eagles, and if we win out, and somehow the Jags pulled out a win against Houston, that would be sweet!

[NagelHausForge]

If you look too long at the scenarios you will go cross-eyed.... Beware! 

1 minute ago, compuls1v3 said:

I could see Houston losing to the Eagles, and if we win out, and somehow the Jags pulled out a win against Houston, that would be sweet!

 

[Virtuoso80]

I had it set where Houston wins out and we lose to either nyg or dal but win at tenn.  we still get the last playoff spot. (thats only if miami loses only one more game).

[Larry Horseman]

If the Colts go 2-1, pretty good odds of the #6 seed. If Houston finishes 0-3 (this could happen, IMO) and the Colts go 3-0, Colts would win the AFC South and Houston wold be the #6 seed. Either way, if the Colts get in, there is a pretty good chance Houston will be the first round match up, which bodes pretty well for a W. 

[Str8himalaya]

59 minutes ago, ColtV said:

Maybe the most interesting thing when playing around with this was how much trouble Pittsburgh is in.

 

Games left against New Orleans and New England they then close out the season against Cincinnati

 

This is what I was thinking after playing with it a little bit. Even if we lose 1 (to Dal or NYG) and Pittsburgh loses one, we get in ahead of them. Pittsburgh very well could lose 2 of the next 3 and that would put the ravens in the drivers seat. At the end of the day, if we take care of our business and win these next three games (winnable), we should be in. I don't see Pittsburgh beating NE and @NO as well as playing a rival in the Bengals. I could see the Ravens winning out, but have at least one tough game left. We really need to get past Dallas and go from there. Tennessee could be the game we thought it might be, a meaningful game for a ticket to the playoffs.

[Virtuoso80]

2 minutes ago, Larry Horseman said:

If the Colts go 2-1, pretty good odds of the #6 seed. If Houston finishes 0-3 (this could happen, IMO) and the Colts go 3-0, Colts would win the AFC South and Houston wold be the #6 seed. Either way, if the Colts get in, there is a pretty good chance Houston will be the first round match up, which bodes pretty well for a W. 

that last game vs tenn is really a key game if we win/lose one to nyg or dal.

[shasta519]

If I am reading this right...the Colts have to go 3-0 to get in...and still get some help. If they go 2-1...they need a ton of help.

 

Right now both MIA and BAL have a better conference record...and the Colts only have one AFC game left. So unless MIA and BAL are losing those games, that part won't change...and they will have the tiebreaker.

 

Now BAL likely will lose to LAC and MIA gets a desperate MIN team...but that's about it.

 

EDIT: I thought MIA had the tiebreaker for some reason. NFL.com had them as the #7 seed yesterday...and IND as the #8 seed. But now it's reversed. Disregard what I said above.

[Larry Horseman]

5 minutes ago, Virtuoso80 said:

that last game vs tenn is really a key game if we win/lose one to nyg or dal.

Yep - Tenn is a must win obviously. I think this week's Dallas game is a solid measuring stick. Dallas has been playing good ball and the Colts and Dallas are similar in talent/competition level - neither are elite but both are capable of winning/being competitive any given week against any team. It would be really fun to watch the Colts play @ KC and Dallas play @ NO/LAR in the divisional round but that is getting way too far ahead!

[BOTT]

7 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

If I am reading this right...the Colts have to go 3-0 to get in...and still get some help. If they go 2-1...they need a ton of help.

 

Right now both MIA and BAL have a better conference record...and the Colts only have one AFC game left. So unless MIA and BAL are losing those games, that part won't change...and they will have the tiebreaker.

 

Now BAL likely will lose to LAC and MIA gets a desperate MIN team...but that's about it.

I wouldn't count on Miami winning a game in Buffalo in late December.

[#12.]

For the Colts to get in at 9-7, the loss would have to be NFC, and either Pittsburgh or Baltimore would have to lose two.  

 

That assumes Miami doesn't win out with the Pats losing 2 out of 3.  If Miami wins out and the Pats lose two, the Colts are out, even at 10-6...  unless Houston also loses two.  In that case, the Colts would get a bye.  Lol

[Virtuoso80]

so many variables, makes your head spin! 

[shasta519]

4 minutes ago, BOTT said:

I wouldn't count on Miami winning a game in Buffalo in late December.

 

I don't know why NFL.com had them as the #7 seed.

 

My post was incorrect. 

 

Colts go 3-0 and they are in. To not get in, both BAL AND PIT would have to go 3-0...which won't happen. If the Colts go 2-1...they can still get in a number of ways...mostly by PIT losing and MIA losing at least one.

[Virtuoso80]

8 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

I don't know why NFL.com had them as the #7 seed.

 

My post was incorrect. 

 

Colts go 3-0 and they are in. To not get in, both BAL AND PIT would have to go 3-0...which won't happen. If the Colts go 2-1...they can still get in a number of ways...mostly by PIT losing and MIA losing at least one.

Colts still have to beat Tenn regardless to get in.

[shasta519]

5 minutes ago, #12. said:

For the Colts to get in at 9-7, the loss would have to be NFC, and either Pittsburgh or Baltimore would have to lose two.  

 

That assumes Miami doesn't win out with the Pats losing 2 out of 3.  If Miami wins out and the Pats lose two, the Colts are out, even at 10-6...  unless Houston also loses two.  In that case, the Colts would get a bye.  Lol

 

MIA is unfortunately running into the NFC WC race...going on the road to face a desperate MIN team. Their playoff hopes are likely dashed after next Sunday.

 

The Colts just have so much going for them. NE needs to hold off HOU for a bye...which means they are showing up against PIT. The more PIT loses, the better chances the Colts have.

 

Also, NO has to hold off CHI for a bye and home-field (no one wants to go to Soldier Field in January)...and is batting the LAR for home-field advantage throughout. NO plays PIT in two weeks...which could be the end of their chances.

 

Finally, DAL has to lose out and PHI has to win out to win the NFC East. But this isn't happening. So that DAL/IND game has now become relatively insignificant...because DAL (at best) is basically playing for the #3 seed. 

 

This is setting up nicely.

[shasta519]

20 minutes ago, Virtuoso80 said:

Colts still have to beat Tenn regardless to get in.

 

Right...that one less can't be to TENN. But that's also assuming TEN beats both the NYG and WAS. We will know by the time that game rolls around. It's most likely a must-win for IND...but it could be a pointless game (with IND locked into the #6 spot), as crazy as that sounds. Who would have thought that?

[Larry Horseman]

4 minutes ago, #12. said:

For the Colts to get in at 9-7, the loss would have to be NFC, and either Pittsburgh or Baltimore would have to lose two.  

 

That assumes Miami doesn't win out with the Pats losing 2 out of 3.  If Miami wins out and the Pats lose two, the Colts are out, even at 10-6...  unless Houston also loses two.  In that case, the Colts would get a bye.  Lol

 

It is much more likely that the Colts go 2-1 and either Pitt and Balt (my money is on Pitt) lose two than Miami wins three and Pats lose two...

 

Here's why I think Pitt goes 1-2: give them a W in week 17 at Cincy, but I don't see how they win at NO in week 16. As for this week against the Pats, despite the Pats being an underwhelming road team this year, the odds aren't in Pitts favor - since 2001, Pats are 42-12 after a loss and have only lost back to back games more than once in a season in three seasons (they lost back to back already this year). 

 

I think the Ravens go 2-1 (lose to Chargers) but 1-2 isn't out of the question since the Browns will be playing hard week 17 and Balt will be coming off a long road trip; Miami goes 1-2 (lose to Vikes and coin flip on Jags or Bills)...they just aren't that good; and Pats go 3-0.  

 

I'm actually really interested in what the Texans do this weekend. Going to be rainy in cold @ NYJ. If they drop that, a three game slide isn't out of the question, which would put the division in play for the Colts if they win out...

[AllYouNeedIsLuck]

If Pats lose and Texans lose 2 (unlikely but you never know) and we win out, we probably have the 2 seed LMAO

 

* now I’d just be happy getting the 6 tbh 

[Dingus McGirt]

Last weekend, in addition to the loss to the Jags...all the teams the Colts needed to lose - won.  It's a fickle crapshoot.

[#12.]

11 minutes ago, AllYouNeedIsLuck said:

If Pats lose and Texans lose 2 (unlikely but you never know) and we win out, we probably have the 2 seed LMAO

 

* now I’d just be happy getting the 6 tbh 

Miami would have to win out, too, l believe. 

[krunk]

20 minutes ago, Larry Horseman said:

 

It is much more likely that the Colts go 2-1 and either Pitt and Balt (my money is on Pitt) lose two than Miami wins three and Pats lose two...

 

Here's why I think Pitt goes 1-2: give them a W in week 17 at Cincy, but I don't see how they win at NO in week 16. As for this week against the Pats, despite the Pats being an underwhelming road team this year, the odds aren't in Pitts favor - since 2001, Pats are 42-12 after a loss and have only lost back to back games more than once in a season in three seasons (they lost back to back already this year). 

 

I think the Ravens go 2-1 (lose to Chargers) but 1-2 isn't out of the question since the Browns will be playing hard week 17 and Balt will be coming off a long road trip; Miami goes 1-2 (lose to Vikes and coin flip on Jags or Bills)...they just aren't that good; and Pats go 3-0.  

 

I'm actually really interested in what the Texans do this weekend. Going to be rainy in cold @ NYJ. If they drop that, a three game slide isn't out of the question, which would put the division in play for the Colts if they win out...

The Jets are a team that can sneak you with Darnold at QB.   I don't think the Texans will win that Philly game.  Will probably beat the Jags. They could possibly lose 2-3 but I think it will be more like they will lose 1 out of 3

[Larry Horseman]

4 minutes ago, krunk said:

The Jets are a team that can sneak you with Darnold at QB.   I don't think the Texans will win that Philly game.  Will probably beat the Jags. They could possibly lose 2-3 but I think it will be more like they will lose 1 out of 3

 

I don't think it is probable they lose out. I agree with them losing at Philly. I think we both agree on the Jets - 60/40 W for Texans. I'd put Jags at 60/40 too...I have a weird feeling they are going to close out strong. Also, I don't think the Texans are actually better than a 10 W team, so always the chance water finds its level. I'm just happy the Colts are back in playoff scenarios again! 

[BullsColtsFan1]

2 hours ago, Virtuoso80 said:

I think we can only afford to lose 1 game either to NYG or DAL not to TENN before we get blocked from the playoffs, if im not mistaken.

 

Edit: also Miami has to lose at least 1 of their next 3 games.

Doesn't Miami get in if they tie with the Colts?  If the Colts finish 9-7 and the Dolphins finish 9-7.  They get in because they have a better divisional record correct? (if there one loss isn't to the Bills).

[coltsleafs]

29 minutes ago, BullsColtsFan1 said:

Doesn't Miami get in if they tie with the Colts?  If the Colts finish 9-7 and the Dolphins finish 9-7.  They get in because they have a better divisional record correct? (if there one loss isn't to the Bills).

I believe they would only get in if they're was a three way tie breaker with a third team. I think head to head is the first tie breaker if only two teams are tied. I could be wrong though.

[Virtuoso80]

31 minutes ago, BullsColtsFan1 said:

Doesn't Miami get in if they tie with the Colts?  If the Colts finish 9-7 and the Dolphins finish 9-7.  They get in because they have a better divisional record correct? (if there one loss isn't to the Bills).

divisional record doesnt apply to the tiebreaker between miami and colts

 

head to head is applied first in this scenario which favors the colts.

[Virtuoso80]

i see where miami has a chance if they tie at 9-7 with the colts, miami gets in if the chargers lose against the broncos.

 

looks like we need to root for the chargers to beat the broncos.

[Four2itus]

Ya'll scaring me with this prediction * .

[Boiler_Colt]

The only way Miami gets in with the same record as the Colts is if the Titans or Broncos also finish 9-7. Then Miami goes.

 

So beating Tennessee is the key unless the Titans lose to both the Giants and Skins.

 

Heads spinning yet?

[BullsColtsFan1]

1 hour ago, Virtuoso80 said:

divisional record doesnt apply to the tiebreaker between miami and colts

 

head to head is applied first in this scenario which favors the colts.

That's what I thought but I swore the Dolphins are ahead of us in the standings according to NFL.com.  Maybe I am wrong.  I would think head to head is the first tie breaker, but wasn't 100% sure.