Sorry 2006, but you get 4 Pinocchios :-). Lawrence's true freshman year was a lot better than Luck's redshirt freshman year, and sophomore years are shaping up to be very similar, which Lawrence has at least 2 games to go (the numbers include bowls for both)
Keep in mind Lawrence is only a true Soph, and Luck took a redshirt (so he had a year advantage in learning the system, and the stats below).
Here's their comparative stats.
Lawrence 65%, 3280 yards, 8.3 avg, 30/4 TD/INT ratio, 157.6 PR
Luck (red shirt) 56%, 2575, 8.9 avg, 13/4, 143.5 PR
Soph Year (Lawrence's soph year isn't done yet)
Lawrence 69%, 2870 yards, 9.1 avg, 30/8, 171.5 PR
Luck 70%, 3338 yards, 9.0 avg, 32/8, 170 PR
Stats farther below
Quick Summary - Buc's O vs Colts D
Passing - The Bucs have the 4th most passing yards per game in the league while we're the 11th best defending the pass. Winston is a bit hobbled, gets sacked a lot, and throws the most INTs in the league. They have a bottom 10 OL, and will be missing their starting RG. Their best WR is a bit hobbled.
Rushing - They are not the best rushing team (22nd), and Winston shouldn't be much of a running threat either with his knee.
Quick Summary - Buc's D vs Colts O
Passing - One the worst passing Ds (31st) vs one of the worst passing Os (26th). TB blitzs more than most teams in the NFL, yet aren't very successful in pressuring the QB and average in INTs. It's really all about containing Suh. While not starters, TB has hobbled #2 rotational DBs. Will we see Campbell back and will he torch a very bad group of DBs?
Rushing - 4th best rushing O meets 2nd best rushing D. If we rush well tomorrow, I'll be surprised given they are already good, and will likely do everything they can to make JB beat them. I'd hate to see Mack get hurt trying to come back quickly.
The Bottom Line
Indy should win the game regardless of injuries. TB is near the worst passing D in the league, and our guys will be open. The only question is will JB see them. Given we should be limited in the running game, it's another great opportunity (3rd in 3 weeks) for JB to crush a horrible pass D. On D, Winston and their #1 WR are a bit hobbled, and we should not have too much problem keeping him in check even without Moore. I could see both Sack and INT success tomorrow.
Prediction - I expect the Colts D to hold TB to 24 or under, and could see our guys getting some picks and sacks. I have zero idea what to expect on O. JB should have a career day.. but..., should have done better the last two weeks vs bad pass Ds. If Mack and/or the other RBs have success tomorrow, then WOW vs a very good run D.
Top Five Bolded Blue'
Bottom Five Bolded Red
Injured Starters Bolded Green
5th in total yards per game
4th in passing yards per game
22nd in total rushing yards per game
4th in total points per game
13th in Red Zone Offense %
32nd best in INTs thrown
24th best in sacks taken
Out - Cappa G, Miller WR, Logan RB
Banged up - Godwin WR (shin) - was FP, Winston QB (knee) - was FP
13th in total yards per game allowed
11th in passing yards allowed
9th in rushing yards allowed
11th in points per game allowed
9th in Red Zone Defense %
18th best in INTs
17th best in sacks
26th in blitz % (23.3%)
18th in QB hurry %
17th in total QB pressure % (22.2%)
Out - Moore CB/N,
Questionable - Hooker S (Foot), Ya-Sin (ankle)
Banged up -
17th in total yards per game allowed
31st in passing yards allowed
2nd in rushing yards allowed
29th in points per game allowed
13th in Red Zone Defense %
16th best in INTs
14th best in sacks
2nd in blitz % (43.3%)
29th in QB hurry %
25th in total QB pressure (21.5%)
Out - Nelson OLB
Questionable - Dean CB (shoulder) - was FP, Steward DB (knee) - was FP
Banged up - Pierre-Paul OLB (knee) - was LP
19th in total yards per game
26th in passing yards per game
4th in total rushing yards per game
17th in total points per game
8th in Red Zone Offense %
16th best in INTs thrown
10th best in sacks taken
Out - Hilton WR
Banged up - Mack RB (hand) - was FP, Alie-Cox TE (thumb) was FP, Campbell WR (hand) was FP,
I'd rather have Hooper for the other tight end. With Cox also around, we wouldn't need to draft a tight end this year or probably next.
I wonder how early is too early to extend Leonard and Nelson - it will probably get more expensive every year.