Brissett Value to the NFL

[Myles]

54 minutes ago, oldunclemark said:

 Is there a reason not to keep Brissett as a low-cost backup in 2019?

I think it would be the best option.    

The alternative is getting a pick for him (probably 3rd round).   Then we would have to use a pick to draft another backup or sign a veteran for much more money.  

[Yoshinator]

5 minutes ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

ok, so what is the % chance that we get a "high" draft pick for Brissett?

 

Because I'm 99% sure that you DON'T KNOW.

 

Do me a favor.  Go put Brissett on the trading block in Madden and tell me what you get for him.

I don't know, we'll find out. If we get a 2nd round pick offered, I will guarantee the trade will happen. If we keep him, it'll be because Ballard didn't get the offer he wanted, and he'd rather take the compensatory pick, not because he thinks Brissett will carry the team to the SB. 

[oldunclemark]

17 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

im not arguing that.  the situation is strange in tampa he could win the job there

 

i believe they were in the same draft class, and JB was seen as the poor mans version of winston.  now that some time has passed im not sure that JW is any better and they are tired of his off the field crap

But they entire discussion here is about trading Brissett and getting a high draft choice.

Of course they MIGHT get him as a free agent in 2020 and he MIGHT beat out Winston but that's not what we're talking about

 

..we MIGHT get a 6th or 7th round draft choice for him.

2nd is an absolute fantasy.

 

So lets keep him and we WILL (not might) have a quality backup who knows the system in 2019, right?

 

 

[shasta519]

29 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Bortles will probably get released. Keenum has one year left on his contract, and the Broncos can re-sign Brissett, and Eli is 100% done after this year, and the Giants can use Brissett as their new QB.

 

I think the NYG could be a fit. They reportedly like Lauletta, but he has yet to take a snap. Of course they are going to be in position to draft one if they want.

 

I think MIA is a darkhorse here that no one talks about. Tannenhill's cap hit balloons to $26M after this season. They are going to re-work his deal or cut him (most likely the latter). And Osweiler sucks...and is only signed as a one-year stopgap. 

 

Brissett makes a lot of sense as a cheap option as MIA cycles through dead cap hits for one season to reset and rebuild. And Brissett, while not a local guy, played his HS ball up the coast in West Palm Beach...and originally attended University fo Florida. So there is a bit of a connection there...that MIA could market and help get him to re-sign.

[MPStack]

Just now, richard pallo said:

The Volin report has not been proved false just because LaCanfora has a contradictory report.  It's one reporter contradicting another.  Both have their sources.  Happens all the time.  You want to discount the Volin report because you don't agree with it and you want to believe LaCanfora no problem.  But the report is still a report.  Getting Brisett to back up Wilson makes perfect sense.  Wilson gets hit and sacked a lot.  He also runs a lot.  So far he has avoided anything serious but he certainly is at a higher risk for injury compared to most QB's in the league.   I can see them trying to get Brisett. 

The Seahawks didn't have a 2018 nor 2019 2nd Rd pick. So, what were they going to do, borrow one? I'm sticking with a pretty common sense article over Volin's report, which yep, I believe is 100% inaccurate and gotten into A LOT of Colts fans heads, that Brissett is way more vaulable at least for draft pick compensation wise. I beg to differ with you, but LaCanfora's article nails it for me.

 

Also, the timing was right with a healthy Luck, to trade Brissett, at the deadline and didn't happen.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

3 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I don't know, we'll find out.

 

Thank you!  That's the most insightful thing you've posted in this entire thread.

 

"I don't know, we'll find out."  should have been everyones' response to this topic in the first place...

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

Thank you!  That's the most insightful thing you've posted in this entire thread.

 

"I don't know, we'll find out."  should have been everyones' response to this topic in the first place...

By that admission, we should start 0 threads about things in the future, like SBs, the draft or upcoming games. We should only discuss them after they happen and not make any predictions.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

3 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

By that admission, we should start 0 threads about things in the future, like SBs, the draft or upcoming games. We should only discuss them after they happen and not make any predictions.

 

No, by all means, start and participate in these threads.  They're usually fun to read when people give their HUMBLE opinions.

 

But when you insist on declaring your opinion as fact (which you have a bad habit of doing), you're gonna get push-back.

 

Have a nice day. 

[shasta519]

14 minutes ago, oldunclemark said:

But they entire discussion here is about trading Brissett and getting a high draft choice.

Of course they MIGHT get him as a free agent in 2020 and he MIGHT beat out Winston but that's not what we're talking about

 

..we might get a 6th or 7th round draft choice for him.

2nd is an absolute fantasy.

 

So lets keep him and we have a quality backup who knows the system in 2019, right?

 

 

 

A 6th or a 7th round draft pick for a 25 year-old QB with legit starting experience (AV of 11 in his only year starting) and one cheap year left of his rookie deal?

 

That is even more of a fantasy for the teams trying to trade for him. Guys that get traded for those types of picks are the Henry Andersons and Marcus Coopers of the world...or really old vets...not QBs who could be starters. 

 

There is a precedent here when it comes to trading QBs. Brissett is not Trevor Semian...coming off a dismal season. He is a somewhat untapped QB who has now played behind Brady and Luck...and has been coached by BB, McDaniels and Reich.

 

He is sort of like Jimmy G...who yielded a 2nd round pick halfway through the final year of his rookie deal. (And if NE had traded him before the season...it would been an even better pick). I definitely think Jimmy G is a better QB...but he's also not available...Brissett is.

 

The Colts should (and will) net a Day Two pick. It's a weak QB class...and FA isn't going to provide much more (Teddy B and Tyrod Taylor are the only two that any team might consider starting).

 

[oldunclemark]

I think we are creating scenarios which would favor our team.

I dont know of any team that would give us a 2nd rounder for Jacoby

 

The Giants or Broncos are NOT giving us a 2nd round choice (which is a low cost young players for 4 years) for JB to back up or to replace the guy they have now...

 

I would love other teams to just give us draft picks

[oldunclemark]

2 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

A 6th or a 7th round draft pick for a 25 year-old QB with legit starting experience (AV of 11 in his only year starting) and one cheap year left of his rookie deal?

 

 

Only one year on the rookie deal.? And then he can walk? That's about right, Shasta Man

 

[Yoshinator]

7 minutes ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

No, by all means, start and participate in these threads.  They're usually fun to read when people give their HUMBLE opinions.

 

But when you insist on declaring your opinion as fact (which you have a bad habit of doing), you're gonna get push-back.

 

Have a nice day. 

I love push-back, I just want it to be intelligent. Your whole argument on why we should keep Brissett was that he could win the SB for us if Luck goes down. That's a very specific scenario to sacrifice a pick for, and something no smart GM would do. That's not my opinion, that's a fact, that that scenario is a 1% scenario. Whether we get a high draft for Brissett is unknown, but to keep him for your reason is something an amateur GM would do, and that is fact. 

[shasta519]

13 minutes ago, oldunclemark said:

Only one year on the rookie deal.? And then he can walk? That's about right, Shasta Man

 

 

He can't walk. They can franchise tag him for two years after that (if they wanted to). A second franchise tag would never happen...but hypothetically they will have Brissett for at least two seasons (next season and one franchise tag). But most likely an extenstion will be worked out next offseason without using the franchise tag.

 

Again, Jimmy G yielded a 2nd round pick with a handful of games left in the last year of his rookie deal. SF then gave him an extension a couple months later. Ballard will use this as a precedent.

 

Jimmy G is the better QB...but in the case of Brissett, you actually get an entire season of games. This opens up the market to even more teams because teams are still putting together their rosters/strategy for the next season at that point...and Brissett fits a rebuilding team and fits a team looking to win.

 

I would be shocked if they can't get at least a 3rd round pick for him. But I also wouldn't be surprised if he gets dealt for another player...which might be a shrewd way to actually get more value. Teams don't really ever have a surplus of picks...but they do sometimes have surplus at certain positions...and that actually allow the Colts to get a better player than they would have been able to get via the draft.

 

 

[Lucky Colts Fan]

1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Your whole argument on why we should keep Brissett was that he could win the SB for us if Luck goes down. That's a very specific scenario to sacrifice a pick for, and something no smart GM would do.

 

Are you serious?  Do I have to repeat myself?

 

I am not making an argument.  I'm simply pointing out how ridiculous yours is.  I'm fine with whatever Ballard does because I'm not a wannabe-GM.  I'm just a regular ol' Colts fan...

 

3 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

That's not my opinion, that's a fact, that that scenario is a 1% scenario. Whether we get a high draft for Brissett is unknown, but to keep him for your reason is something an amateur GM would do, and that is fact.

 

And AGAIN, you are pushing your opinion as fact, which is extremely obnoxious.

 

I enjoy a lot of your posts, so when you go on manic rants like this, it's really disappointing.  SMDH.

[Trueman]

You get an offer for a 3rd or better and you move Jacoby.

It's really that simple.

[MikeCurtis]

5 minutes ago, Trueman said:

You get an offer for a 3rd or better and you move Jacoby.

It's really that simple.

 

I would be happy with a 3rd, but think that he is bit better than that .....  but.... I can be wrong (Ask my wife)

 

But.... lets use your point

 

Does JB do enough since he was chosen in the 3rd round of the draft to at least keep that value?

 

I think he does .... his "level" at one point was 3rd round......  I dont think he has hurt himself.

 

Again......  a bit too early, many differnent opinions, which doesnt make anyone bad.......

 

Its all good

 

 

[Jdubu]

1 hour ago, aaron11 said:

so are we likely to get a third or better from him or not?  i actually have no idea

We aren’t guaranteed at getting anything for him. He could go to another team as a free agent, get a large enough contract to qualify but stink it up on his new team, get benched or cut and we get nothing for it. It’s the gamble and risk you take. My odds think he will do well enough and gets plenty of playing time on his new team and if that team plays well enough or he does and they get a playoff berth, he is a 3rd comp but he could be a 4th or later pick as well. Crap shoot. 

[Four2itus]

2 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I'm kind of an all or nothing guy in this particular situation. With Luck, we have a chance at a SB next year if things fall right with the draft and FA and our last couple draft classes continue to improve. With Brissett, we do not. IMO, the only way we should keep Brissett if he can win the SB next year if Luck goes down. The odds of that are slim to none. I don't care if we trade Brissett, Luck goes down, and we lose every other game. We weren't winning the SB anyway with Brissett, and that's the ultimate goal. If we get a 2nd round pick, I trust Ballard to hit on that pick. He did with Leonard, Smith, Turay, and it looks good for Wilson now. A backup Veteran, like we had with Hasselback, is fine. IMO, we need to trade him, and go forward with Luck to give ourselves the best chance to win the SB. A 2nd rounder in this particular 2019 draft can get us a great defensive player, Brissett can't win us the SB.

All good. I am not an all in guy. Odds in a basic view are winning every 32 years. Even with a better run franchise, one could argue 1 in 20 years. I would MUCH rather have good play as often as possible. And, behind this line, I think Jacoby would be one of the best backups in the league. 

 

As I stated many times, I would easily take a decade of dominance or high level play and zero SB's, than 1 SB and a decade of sucking. It's not even close......

[shasta519]

1 hour ago, Myles said:

I think it would be the best option.    

The alternative is getting a pick for him (probably 3rd round).   Then we would have to use a pick to draft another backup or sign a veteran for much more money.  

 

It's really about allocating resources. You can't buy a Day Two pick...but you can buy a backup QB. The Colts have a ton of cap space to spend a few million on a backup QB. But that same few million probably won't get them a chance at a good player in FA.

 

FA is weak at QB...but that doesn't mean they can't find a passable backup. Also, Phillip Walker showed a lot of improvement from last preseason to this preseason. They just re-signed him to the PS. I wouldn't be surprised if they are looking at him as a possible future backup QB. (If they bring him up to the active roster near the end of the season...that could be a good indicator of their intentions with Brissett).

 

And this is really just one scenario. There are a handful of ways you can trade Brissett...for another good player at a position of need, to move up to a premium spot in the draft, for a future pick that is even higher. I just don't see Ballard not taking advantage.

 

 

[NewColtsFan]

21 hours ago, Superman said:

 

If we find a partner and can work out a good deal, I'm all for it. But I'm not interested in moving him for a less than worthy package just because we're risking losing him for nothing. 

 

First, it's not written in stone that we'd lose him. Sure, it's likely, but not a guarantee.

 

Second, we wouldn't be losing him for nothing. We'd get to keep him as our backup in 2019, which is worth something to me. And to the staff, presumably.

 

Third, if he has a real demand, he could gain the Colts a future comp pick. Chase Daniel got the Chiefs a 5th rounder; Nick Foles got the Chiefs a 6th rounder. Three years, $20m-ish for Brissett probably gets the Colts something similar in 2020. That plus the extra year of a worthy backup is not "nothing," IMO. I'd rather do that than trade him for a 5th in 2019 just because we don't want to lose him for nothing.

 

Fourth, the transition tag, while very unlikely, could be used after 2019. The Colts could tag Brissett and work out trade compensation with any other team, subject to the new team's contract terms with Brissett. 

 

I think they'll be very receptive to trade offers this offseason, I'm just saying I don't want to give him up unless it's a good offer. I'd rather keep him for one more year than trade him for a late 5th rounder.

 

Interesting post....

 

I'm not quite sure how much I agree with,  but it IS a VERY interesting post,  and worth serious discussion....    so,  let's discuss,  and I'll try to go point by point as you did....

 

Right off the bat,  you state you're only interested in moving Brissett in a "worthy package", but I don't see what your definition of a worthy package is....      I've stated I'd move Brissett for a 3 or a 4.   Obviously more,  but I'm not at all confident we'd get that.

 

So...   point one....   it's not clear we'd lose Brissett.    You're correct,  it's not certain.   But it's everyone's hunch that this would be his best chance at being a starter somewhere, so he'd like to move on.     Would he be willing to stay as a highly paid back-up?    Don't know.   Maybe?    But I'd guess that as not likely.   Though you're idea of 3/20M is a good one.   That might work.

 

Point two...     To me, Brissett greatest worth is if he actually plays meaningful snaps and games.  Right now,  he's actually LOSING VALUE.    All he's doing is taking snaps and handing the ball off in games that are already decided.    When teams try to evaluate him,  they'll look more at his 2017 tape than they will his 2018.    This is an unintended consequence of Luck being healthy again.    Here's the downside --- it hurts the value for JB.

 

Point three...    We might get a future comp pick.   I admit I don't know/understand the formula for how comp picks are determined.     Is it only based on what he's offered?    Or is it partly based on how much he played the previous year?     I honestly don't know.    That said,  I'd be hugely disappointed if we keep him for a year,  and then only get a 5 or a 6 comp pick.   Hugely disappointed.    I'd persoally rather trade him --- hopefully for better than that --- and sign a different back-up.   A vet who uses his brain rather than his physical gifts.    I have three candidates who I think would be helpful to Luck during the week,  and on game day...   Josh McNoun with the Jets,  Ryan Fitzpatrick with the Bucs,  or Colt McCoy with the Skins.   I think they'd be a great help to Luck.   That's where their value is with me.   Their brain.   Much like Hasselbeck was.     Brissett's real value is if he's playing.    But if he's not,  his value is less...   I don't see him helping Luck in the film room or on the sidelines.   Only if he's playing because Luck would be hurt.     And no one wants that....

 

Point four...     I confess the Transition Tag didn't occur to me.    If it's a tool for Ballard, then great.    I'm fine with that.    But here's the deal,  and typically,  I don't care about public reaction.   But this situation ISN'T typical.     If we keep JB for one more year,  then only get a 5/6 comp pick,  I think we look like a Big Horses Rear End.    Why?    Because of Irsay's proclamation that we wouldn't trade JB even for a 1st round pick.   And then the uncomfirmed rumor (denied by both sides, but plenty still believe it)  that we were offered and turned down a 2 from Seattle.    If we end up with a 5/6, I feel confident that we will get snickered at that THAT is all we could get when we might've gotten more in a different scenario.    I hate the optics on this one.   We'd look bad.   I normally don't care how we look to fans in general,  but in this case,  I think it would be a really bad look for us.

 

So....     that's where I am on this....   worth keeping a sharp eye on...   again, I'm fine if we bypass a trade to keep JB as a high priced back-up.    Your 3/20 works for me.    Thanks for this....

 

 

 

[Trueman]

3 hours ago, MikeCurtis said:

Does JB do enough since he was chosen in the 3rd round of the draft to at least keep that value?

Possibly , possibly not. He's worth whatever someone is willing to pay. As it's been stated , the QB market isn't exactly flush in the draft/free agency this summer, so he might go for an inflated price. 

Where he was drafted is almost irrelevant at this point.

A young QB with some upside , an NFL sample size , and off-the-charts character, is going to entice someone. 

 

How much remains to be seen. The QB market fluctuates all the time because of the scarcity of available jobs. 

Keeping him makes almost no sense unless the offers are just pathetic. 


 

[MikeCurtis]

3 minutes ago, Trueman said:

Keeping him makes almost no sense unless the offers are just pathetic. 


 

100% 

[CheezyColt]

To me, this isn't that complicated. 

 

Option 1: Resign Jacoby to a worthy high quality backup deal that is front loaded. Ensures that we have a competent backup quarterback familiar with the system and uses some of our mandated spent cap space without overpaying on outside free agent.

 

Option 2: Trade for a 4 or higher,  including the possibility of packaging with a draft pick to get an extra or elevated pick.

 

Option 3: Try to trade him before deadline next year for minimal return but injury assurance next year. (Or before the season if a starter goes down)

 

Option 4: Let him walk after next year and hope he gets paid and put in a starting situation as to positively affect our comp pick formula.

 

These all seem like valid options with quality reasons behind them. Doesn't seem worth all this board warfare, haha.

[NewColtsFan]

12 hours ago, richard pallo said:

The Volin report has not been proved false just because LaCanfora has a contradictory report.  It's one reporter contradicting another.  Both have their sources.  Happens all the time.  You want to discount the Volin report because you don't agree with it and you want to believe LaCanfora no problem.  But the report is still a report.  Getting Brisett to back up Wilson makes perfect sense.  Wilson gets hit and sacked a lot.  He also runs a lot.  So far he has avoided anything serious but he certainly is at a higher risk for injury compared to most QB's in the league.   I can see them trying to get Brisett. 

 

I don't think anyone doesn't believe that Seattle inquired about Brissett.    There's no reason not to believe that.    You don't have to make a case that Seattle needs a quality back-up.

 

I think what people doubt is that Seattle offered a two for him.     That's much harder to believe.

 

[NewColtsFan]

On 11/23/2018 at 2:00 PM, Superman said:

 

If we find a partner and can work out a good deal, I'm all for it. But I'm not interested in moving him for a less than worthy package just because we're risking losing him for nothing. 

 

First, it's not written in stone that we'd lose him. Sure, it's likely, but not a guarantee.

 

Second, we wouldn't be losing him for nothing. We'd get to keep him as our backup in 2019, which is worth something to me. And to the staff, presumably.

 

Third, if he has a real demand, he could gain the Colts a future comp pick. Chase Daniel got the Chiefs a 5th rounder; Nick Foles got the Chiefs a 6th rounder. Three years, $20m-ish for Brissett probably gets the Colts something similar in 2020. That plus the extra year of a worthy backup is not "nothing," IMO. I'd rather do that than trade him for a 5th in 2019 just because we don't want to lose him for nothing.

 

Fourth, the transition tag, while very unlikely, could be used after 2019. The Colts could tag Brissett and work out trade compensation with any other team, subject to the new team's contract terms with Brissett. 

 

I think they'll be very receptive to trade offers this offseason, I'm just saying I don't want to give him up unless it's a good offer. I'd rather keep him for one more year than trade him for a late 5th rounder.

 

A follow-up thought on my previous response to you...

 

When I talked about QB's who succeed with their brains, and I listed McNoun and Fitzpatrick and McCoy,  I wasn't trying to imply that Brissett wasn't smart.    Quite the contrary.   Everything I've read about him is that he IS a sharp young man.

 

What he isn't is....   experienced.    So, I don't see him as a huge benefit in the QB meetings room during the week or on the sidelines during the games.    The other three QB's I think would be a bigger help for Luck that way.   They're smart AND they're experienced.   I think that would be a tremendous benefit.

 

Hope that clarifies....

 

[aaron11]

15 hours ago, Trueman said:

where he was drafted is almost irrelevant at this point.

i dont agree with that, it shows what they thought he was worth then

 

now he would only have one year left on his contract, but hes gotten better too. 

[Superman]

On 11/24/2018 at 12:11 PM, NewColtsFan said:

Right off the bat,  you state you're only interested in moving Brissett in a "worthy package", but I don't see what your definition of a worthy package is....      I've stated I'd move Brissett for a 3 or a 4.   Obviously more,  but I'm not at all confident we'd get that.

 

Just to answer this part, I hadn't thought through what I'd want for Brissett, but I'd probably rather keep him if I can't get more than a high 4th. Even then, I'd want a future conditional pick.

 

I'm not sure what he brings in the film room and in practice, maybe not much, but I think his value is in his ability to start a handful of games in the middle of the season and keep the team afloat. I think Brissett could go 3-2 if Luck had to miss a few games, which is what you want out of a quality backup. 

 

So if I all I can get is a 2019 5th rounder, or worse, I think I'd rather keep him for another season, even if he leaves in free agency (which is the most likely outcome if we don't trade him). 

 

Another poster mentioned that you can buy a backup QB, but you can't buy draft picks. I'm fine with trading Brissett and signing another veteran backup. I'm not sure a veteran in the room is that valuable to Luck anymore -- I mean, the more experienced QBs Luck has access, to the better, but he has a lot of good coaching around him right now -- but a guy who knows how to prepare as a backup is important. 

 

The dream scenario is we clinch in Week 16 and Brissett plays a great game in Week 17, then some desperate team comes calling with a godfather offer before the draft. But that's not anything we can count on happening.