Observations and thoughts on the season so far.

[Dingus McGirt]

3 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Goodell is a good talking head and politician.  Yes ratings are up, slightly, over last year.  But last year the ratings plummeted and they are down significantly from 2010/2011.  Here is a chart that shows add spending (bars) with ratings red line.

 

And maybe streaming media/internet is the reason, so it's not a loss it's a shift.  It will be interesting in 2020.  

 

The commish is an expert turd polisher.

[Coffeedrinker]

14 minutes ago, Dingus McGirt said:

The commish is an expert turd polisher.

I did say he was a politican.

[DougDew]

3 hours ago, Legend of Luck said:

 

If we needed to, that would work. Extend him and front load his contract. 

 

 

I expect we'll spend some FA money, but worst case scenario, we extend some guys and front load their deals like Ballard did when he brought guys in last year.

Not a bad plan.  But who do you extend?  Remember, we reportedly have the worst roster in the NFL.

[DougDew]

2 hours ago, esmort said:

 

I don't it would be nearly as hard as you believe to spend the amount needed to reach the floor even without going wild on free agency. 

 

Ballard could use up that money with just our own players we want to keep or extend, and several mid - low level FAs by how he structures the contracts. I don't think that's the plan, but there is definitely nothing forcing his hand financially to spend big in free agency. 

$60m is half again the cap we are spending now.  Who do you extend?  Kelly, the C, and who else?  TY and AC are getting older.

[Superman]

57 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Goodell is a good talking head and politician.  Yes ratings are up, slightly, over last year.  But last year the ratings plummeted and they are down significantly from 2010/2011.  Here is a chart that shows add spending (bars) with ratings red line.

 

And maybe streaming media/internet is the reason, so it's not a loss it's a shift.  It will be interesting in 2020.  

 

 

I think it's definitely a shift, due to Internet. The NFL's TV market share is higher, and it was that way last year. TV ratings are changing across every viewer base and demographic. The NFL is undoubtedly still growing in revenue. 

 

I could see the year to year cap increase shrinking, as it has the past couple seasons. But I don't see the cap going down in before 2021. It could go down in the first year of the new CBA, assuming one even gets done...

[Superman]

46 minutes ago, DougDew said:

$60m is half again the cap we are spending now.  Who do you extend?  Kelly, the C, and who else?  TY and AC are getting older.

 

By 2020, Hooker and the rest of the 2017 class  will be eligible for extensions. 

 

It's still far away enough that it's not even a consideration. By the time it's here, I'm sure the Colts will be in range.

[esmort]

43 minutes ago, DougDew said:

$60m is half again the cap we are spending now.  Who do you extend?  Kelly, the C, and who else?  TY and AC are getting older.

 

4 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

By 2020, Hooker and the rest of the 2017 class eoll5be eligible for extensions. 

 

It's still far away enough that it's not even a consideration. By the time it's here, I'm sure the Colts will be in range.

 

^^^This... 

 

Also I don't think Costanzo and Hilton are too old for extensions (front loaded those contracts could eat up some big money). We will probably have some FAs we want to keep... maybe Hunt, Woods, Swoope, Sheard(after 2019), etc... Plus any FAs we might pick up this upcoming off-season on short prove it deals, etc...

 

Point being there will be plenty of opportunities to spend money between now and 2020 without going for big name FAs. 

[Legend of Luck]

16 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I think it's definitely a shift, due to Internet. The NFL's TV market share is higher, and it was that way last year. TV ratings are changing across every viewer base and demographic. The NFL is undoubtedly still growing in revenue. 

 

I could see the year to year cap increase shrinking, as it has the past couple seasons. But I don't see the cap going down in before 2021. It could go down in the first year of the new CBA, assuming one even gets done...

 

TV ratings across the board on every single network are down. Its definitely a shift. 

[Lawrence Owen]

On 10/19/2018 at 12:05 PM, Superman said:

 

The CBA expires after 2020, so no one can be sure that the salary floor terms will wind up being enforced. We'll see. But I do expect the Colts to spend to the floor, at least, by the end of 2020. 

A chunk of that money goes to resigning players right?  Like if Ebron continues to get better and wants an extension? How much % wise would you think could go to resigning?  This is Ballard we're talking about, I could see him resigning people early to front heavy contracts to eat up cash. Or would it work that way?

P.S.  If you've answered already, sorry,..i just saw post's above and i'm reading now.

[smittywerb]

I like where the team is headed.  I did not come into this season expecting much but it's funny that at 1-5, my expectations have been exceeded.  This is a tough young team and you couldn't ask for more in year 2 of a COMPLETE rebuild.

 

Offense:  I did not expect the offense to be the weak point of our team, but it is.  I like the new system Reich has in place.  The OL has improved GREATLY and the stats show it.  Some credit should be given to the system but those guys are playing well too, through the injuries at that.  Good thing is our OL is still young and we have studs in place that will grow together and hopefully become an elite line.  Our WR corps has been a disappointment.  The TEs can not bail us out every game.  They need to step up big time.  And Luck has been doing Luck things.  Good to see he's healthy.  Lastly, our RBs have been meh at best but that was expected.  

 

Defense:  Completely blown away by what Ballard and Reich have been able to get out of this defense.  Our DL has been great and we have studs in place in the LB corp.  As said before, our defensive backfield worries me.  Outside of Hooker, there's not really anyone that I have confidence in.  Other than that, stats show we are top 10 defense and I don't know if I've ever said that as a Colts fan.  Definitely surprise of the season for me.

 

Future:  I think the future is bright for us and this season is needed.  We are on track for a top 5 pick and we have additional picks also.  This upcoming can be BIG for us.  Good drafting position plus hopefully a GOOD (not BIG) splash in FA to fill some holes and we'll be competing in the playoffs next year.  Ballard has set this team up for success.  We have good young players in place, we have holes to fill.  The most important thing is WE WILL HAVE THE MEANS TO FILL THEM.  A lot of money and high draft picks.

 

Be patient Colts fan.  

[coltfaninnewyork]

Luck is healthy and getting back to old self ,needs weapons .this draft has been exceptional.Next year we have two second round picks and two fourths .we have money to select a quality free agent or two .All in all I'm excited about 2019.

[hoosierhawk]

Some optimistic posts, especially the last two. Good to know there are some true Colt fans and just not all fair weather fans.

[smittywerb]

1 hour ago, hoosierhawk said:

Some optimistic posts, especially the last two. Good to know there are some true Colt fans and just not all fair weather fans.

 

I agree and I don't get the downers.  Could we be playing better?  Yes, but we have to also be realistic and realize we are rebuilding.  This team is definitely overachieving and anyone who thinks otherwise did not have realistic expectations coming into this season.  Reich, Ballard, and company has this team set up.  This next offseason will be the make or break for our future.

[aaron11]

1 hour ago, smittywerb said:

 

I agree and I don't get the downers.  Could we be playing better?  Yes, but we have to also be realistic and realize we are rebuilding.  This team is definitely overachieving and anyone who thinks otherwise did not have realistic expectations coming into this season.  Reich, Ballard, and company has this team set up.  This next offseason will be the make or break for our future.

1-5 is overachieving?  i dont agree with that.  could have been a 500 team, but made too many mistakes

[smittywerb]

29 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

1-5 is overachieving?  i dont agree with that.  could have been a 500 team, but made too many mistakes

 

The level of play on the field shows overachieving to me.  We could EASILY be 5-1 if we take away some drops and penalties.  And it's not like the teams we've been playing were trash.

[aaron11]

8 minutes ago, smittywerb said:

 

The level of play on the field shows overachieving to me.  We could EASILY be 5-1 if we take away some drops and penalties.  And it's not like the teams we've been playing were trash.

trash is a strong word, but we lost to an 0-3 Texans team and the jets will probably be picking in the top 10

 

the only way they are over achieving is if you expected this team to be trash and maybe win 2-3 games this year.  i was thinking 6-8 before the season, now 6 looks like the ceiling 

[smittywerb]

1 minute ago, aaron11 said:

trash is a strong word, but we lost to an 0-3 Texans team and the jets will probably be picking in the top 10

 

the only way they are over achieving is if you expected this team to be trash and maybe win 2-3 games this year.  i was thinking 6-8 before the season, now 6 looks like the ceiling 

 

Say what you want to say, but both of those teams are 3-3.  Which is where majority of the NFL sits right now.  So they're competing for playoff spots while we're already talking about the draft. lol

 

And yeah, I had this team at 6-10 at best.  However, we are playing like an 8-8 team.

[Superman]

13 hours ago, Lawrence Owen said:

A chunk of that money goes to resigning players right?  Like if Ebron continues to get better and wants an extension? How much % wise would you think could go to resigning?  This is Ballard we're talking about, I could see him resigning people early to front heavy contracts to eat up cash. Or would it work that way?

P.S.  If you've answered already, sorry,..i just saw post's above and i'm reading now.

 

No worries, I feel like this conversation has been going on since the CBA started. I don't mind it at all, but we really make too much of the salary floor. 

 

Whatever cash the Colts spend before the 2020 league year ends goes toward the spending floor, even money spent re-signing their own players. That includes extensions to rookie contracts, signing bonuses, etc. 

 

Ebron signed a two year deal which expires after 2019. He seems to have fit in right away and has become one of Luck's favorite targets, and if that continues, I assume Ballard will want to retain him. So a new contract for Ebron should be on the radar for everyone, and I think it is.

 

What's more interesting to me is whether Ballard wants to re-sign guys on their rookie deals after three years or four. The 2017 draft class will be eligible for new contracts after the 2019 season -- Hooker, Wilson, Mack, Walker, Stewart, Hairston, along with UDFAs Moore and Sanchez. Long way to go before we know whether those guys are even worthy of new contracts (and we've already parted ways with two of those picks), but I'm curious whether Ballard prefers to let rookies play out their entire contracts, and whether he wants to use the fifth year option on first rounders like Kelly and Hooker. 

 

The main point though is that Ballard has some spending to do, and that's true. But it doesn't mean he has spend $100m next March, which is what some people seem to think. 

[Lawrence Owen]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

No worries, I feel like this conversation has been going on since the CBA started. I don't mind it at all, but we really make too much of the salary floor. 

 

Whatever cash the Colts spend before the 2020 league year ends goes toward the spending floor, even money spent re-signing their own players. That includes extensions to rookie contracts, signing bonuses, etc. 

 

Ebron signed a two year deal which expires after 2019. He seems to have fit in right away and has become one of Luck's favorite targets, and if that continues, I assume Ballard will want to retain him. So a new contract for Ebron should be on the radar for everyone, and I think it is.

 

What's more interesting to me is whether Ballard wants to re-sign guys on their rookie deals after three years or four. The 2017 draft class will be eligible for new contracts after the 2019 season -- Hooker, Wilson, Mack, Walker, Stewart, Hairston, along with UDFAs Moore and Sanchez. Long way to go before we know whether those guys are even worthy of new contracts (and we've already parted ways with two of those picks), but I'm curious whether Ballard prefers to let rookies play out their entire contracts, and whether he wants to use the fifth year option on first rounders like Kelly and Hooker. 

 

The main point though is that Ballard has some spending to do, and that's true. But it doesn't mean he has spend $100m next March, which is what some people seem to think. 

Yeah, that is what a thread  i made was talking about. Resigning rookies early to eat up cash.  But they have to prove they deserve it.  I do think Ballard could make a splash F.A. signing this or next year, but only because he has filled the locker room already with 'his' guys and be able to envelope the new player into the Colts philosophy Rather than the star player creating a problem locker room wise.  If it happens...cool, but Ballard is doing something special here i think, and I believe too many people are being hasty in wanting results now, which is why they clamour for a big signing right now.  

[2006Coltsbestever]

We are going to be Good next year, I was one year off but we still could make a run this season if we can reel off 3 or 4 wins in a row. Jacks is 3-4 LOL