Observations and thoughts on the season so far.

[Legend of Luck]

Well... it's been a rollercoaster season so far hasn't it?

I think many of us can see that this team, when healthy, is good. We're a few plays away from being 5-1 or 4-2, even 6-0 possibly. But, the injuries have caught up with us and we have beaten ourselves.

That is actually one of my biggest reasons for optimism. This is not like last year, or the Pagano era at all. We're not getting blown out by sub 500 teams. We dont feel out coached or out matched physically. It's been one or two mistakes each game that have made the difference.

Vs Bengals- A few defensive penalties and Doyle's fumble.

Vs Eagles- a few defensive penalties and 1 or two offensive plays

Vs Texans- Botched snap in our own endzone

Vs Patriots- Most injured team I can remember in the Luck Era along with drops

Vs Jets- Drops leading to picks, and gifting them 14 points.

But we have been RIGHT THERE in all 6 games. If we can get guys healthy and correct our own mistakes, we can still make a run at the playoffs. We're only 2 games behind in this crummy division.

Here are a few random thoughts/observations I've made so far.

- I'm incredibly happy that we can put the Andrew health saga behind us. He's back and he's been absolutely stellar.

- I gotta say, I'm blown away by how good the offensive line has been in pass pro. Andrew is hardly getting sacked and his hit rate is dramatically lower. Obviously we still need the RT of the future, and some more quality depth, but even with the injuries, I'm very proud of this group.

- Marlon Mack is the only play maker we have as a runner. Hines has been decent as a runner, but not great. Wilkins has a few good runs but has been mostly unimpressive. Turbin is hurt again. So, that begs the question, what do we add next year? A top draft pick? LeVeon? An RB 2 free agent or late pick and keep Mack as our lead guy? I honestly don't know. I need to see more from Mack before I can really feel like I can make that evaluation. My gut says Mack can be a stud, but if we have the opportunity (we all know we have the cash) to bring in LeVeon, that'd be hard to pass up. He's a true game changer.

- I think the loss of Deon Cain is looming large this year, much larger than any of us thought it would. Losing TY has shown us just how mediocre the rest of our receiving corps is. Cain was playing so well in camp, there was a legitimate shot that he could have ended up in the starting lineup. He showed the playmaking skills that we are all begging for right now. Next year, he could be a massive addition to this offense. In the meantime, I'd like to see Fountain to get promoted. It's time to give him a shot. With even more injuries at that position, we need a shot in the arm offensively.  Maybe he's the key?

- Eric Ebron...WOW. So proud of him. He's gonna be a Colt for a LONG time.

- Random free agency thought: Jesse James is a free agent next year. If he doesn't resign in Pittsburgh, he's the type of player that I think Reich would really value.

- So many props to Margus Hunt. Unbelievable story for him. Actually the entire DL deserves credit. Hunt, Sheard, Woods, and Autry have been better than advertised. Turay has made some big plays and looks to be everything they were hoping for. The possible addition of Tyquan Lewis could be big as well.

- What can I say about Maniac that hasn't been said? Dudes a superstar. But I think Anthony Walker deserves a TON of recognition. More credit to Ballard, yet another big piece to our defense added later in the draft.

- The secondary is my biggest concern at the moment. We have a ton of injuries, but, if there was a spot on this team that needed an upgrade, it's the CBs. Not that our corners are bad, they just aren't elite playmakers, and we could definitely use an infusion of talent there.

-With 120 Million in cap space next year, we will be forced to do a heavy amount of spending. Beyond that, I think this was Ballard's plan all along, to get to 2019, giving his '17 and '18 draft picks a chance to play all year and really develop, then have the financial firepower to go after any free agent he wants. Here are a list of some potential offensive targets next year, guys that intrigue ME that I think could help the team. (In no particular order)

RB: LeVeon Bell, Mark Ingram, Tevin Coleman

WR: Randall Cobb, Quincy Enunwa, Tyrell Williams, Geronimo Allison

TE: Jesse James

The defensive free agents are pretty stacked as well.

Just wanted to share the thoughts that have been bouncing around in my head. I really think we are gonna win a bunch of games to end the season. One things for sure, this is a good team, and the future is very bright.

[2006Coltsbestever]

To me we are playing like a .500 team but unfortunately we are 1-5 not 3-3. Alot of that has to do with injuries and just having young players making mistakes on both sides of the ball. With TY missing the 2nd Half of the Houston game up through last week, Luck has had no #1 WR to throw too which has cost us at least a game or 2 IMO. Bright points so far are: Luck looks like he is getting back to his oldself and 100% healthy, Leonard looks like the real deal on Defense as well. I like Reich's play calling too, it is keeping Luck healthy and Luck has been efficient in this Offense despite all the drop balls.

[braveheartcolt]

And currently 1st on 3rd down conversions. What does that tell us?

[braveheartcolt]

48 minutes ago, Legend of Luck said:

Well... it's been a rollercoaster season so far hasn't it?

I think many of us can see that this team, when healthy, is good. We're a few plays away from being 5-1 or 4-2, even 6-0 possibly. But, the injuries have caught up with us and we have beaten ourselves.

That is actually one of my biggest reasons for optimism. This is not like last year, or the Pagano era at all. We're not getting blown out by sub 500 teams. We dont feel out coached or out matched physically. It's been one or two mistakes each game that have made the difference.

Vs Bengals- A few defensive penalties and Doyle's fumble.

Vs Eagles- a few defensive penalties and 1 or two offensive plays

Vs Texans- Botched snap in our own endzone

Vs Patriots- Most injured team I can remember in the Luck Era along with drops

Vs Jets- Drops leading to picks, and gifting them 14 points.

But we have been RIGHT THERE in all 6 games. If we can get guys healthy and correct our own mistakes, we can still make a run at the playoffs. We're only 2 games behind in this crummy division.

Here are a few random thoughts/observations I've made so far.

- I'm incredibly happy that we can put the Andrew health saga behind us. He's back and he's been absolutely stellar.

- I gotta say, I'm blown away by how good the offensive line has been in pass pro. Andrew is hardly getting sacked and his hit rate is dramatically lower. Obviously we still need the RT of the future, and some more quality depth, but even with the injuries, I'm very proud of this group.

- Marlon Mack is the only play maker we have as a runner. Hines has been decent as a runner, but not great. Wilkins has a few good runs but has been mostly unimpressive. Turbin is hurt again. So, that begs the question, what do we add next year? A top draft pick? LeVeon? An RB 2 free agent or late pick and keep Mack as our lead guy? I honestly don't know. I need to see more from Mack before I can really feel like I can make that evaluation. My gut says Mack can be a stud, but if we have the opportunity (we all know we have the cash) to bring in LeVeon, that'd be hard to pass up. He's a true game changer.

- I think the loss of Deon Cain is looming large this year, much larger than any of us thought it would. Losing TY has shown us just how mediocre the rest of our receiving corps is. Cain was playing so well in camp, there was a legitimate shot that he could have ended up in the starting lineup. He showed the playmaking skills that we are all begging for right now. Next year, he could be a massive addition to this offense. In the meantime, I'd like to see Fountain to get promoted. It's time to give him a shot. With even more injuries at that position, we need a shot in the arm offensively.  Maybe he's the key?

- Eric Ebron...WOW. So proud of him. He's gonna be a Colt for a LONG time.

- Random free agency thought: Jesse James is a free agent next year. If he doesn't resign in Pittsburgh, he's the type of player that I think Reich would really value.

- So many props to Margus Hunt. Unbelievable story for him. Actually the entire DL deserves credit. Hunt, Sheard, Woods, and Autry have been better than advertised. Turay has made some big plays and looks to be everything they were hoping for. The possible addition of Tyquan Lewis could be big as well.

- What can I say about Maniac that hasn't been said? Dudes a superstar. But I think Anthony Walker deserves a TON of recognition. More credit to Ballard, yet another big piece to our defense added later in the draft.

- The secondary is my biggest concern at the moment. We have a ton of injuries, but, if there was a spot on this team that needed an upgrade, it's the CBs. Not that our corners are bad, they just aren't elite playmakers, and we could definitely use an infusion of talent there.

-With 120 Million in cap space next year, we will be forced to do a heavy amount of spending. Beyond that, I think this was Ballard's plan all along, to get to 2019, giving his '17 and '18 draft picks a chance to play all year and really develop, then have the financial firepower to go after any free agent he wants. Here are a list of some potential offensive targets next year, guys that intrigue ME that I think could help the team. (In no particular order)

RB: LeVeon Bell, Mark Ingram, Tevin Coleman

WR: Randall Cobb, Quincy Enunwa, Tyrell Williams, Geronimo Allison

TE: Jesse James

The defensive free agents are pretty stacked as well.

Just wanted to share the thoughts that have been bouncing around in my head. I really think we are gonna win a bunch of games to end the season. One things for sure, this is a good team, and the future is very bright.

Nice post. I do think your biggest paragraph on an untested rookie is a reach though. It's taking optimism to a new level......

[Jdubu]

17 minutes ago, Legend of Luck said:

Well... it's been a rollercoaster season so far hasn't it?

I think many of us can see that this team, when healthy, is good. We're a few plays away from being 5-1 or 4-2, even 6-0 possibly. But, the injuries have caught up with us and we have beaten ourselves.

That is actually one of my biggest reasons for optimism. This is not like last year, or the Pagano era at all. We're not getting blown out by sub 500 teams. We dont feel out coached or out matched physically. It's been one or two mistakes each game that have made the difference.

Vs Bengals- A few defensive penalties and Doyle's fumble.

Vs Eagles- a few defensive penalties and 1 or two offensive plays

Vs Texans- Botched snap in our own endzone

Vs Patriots- Most injured team I can remember in the Luck Era along with drops

Vs Jets- Drops leading to picks, and gifting them 14 points.

But we have been RIGHT THERE in all 6 games. If we can get guys healthy and correct our own mistakes, we can still make a run at the playoffs. We're only 2 games behind in this crummy division.

Here are a few random thoughts/observations I've made so far.

- I'm incredibly happy that we can put the Andrew health saga behind us. He's back and he's been absolutely stellar.

- I gotta say, I'm blown away by how good the offensive line has been in pass pro. Andrew is hardly getting sacked and his hit rate is dramatically lower. Obviously we still need the RT of the future, and some more quality depth, but even with the injuries, I'm very proud of this group.

- Marlon Mack is the only play maker we have as a runner. Hines has been decent as a runner, but not great. Wilkins has a few good runs but has been mostly unimpressive. Turbin is hurt again. So, that begs the question, what do we add next year? A top draft pick? LeVeon? An RB 2 free agent or late pick and keep Mack as our lead guy? I honestly don't know. I need to see more from Mack before I can really feel like I can make that evaluation. My gut says Mack can be a stud, but if we have the opportunity (we all know we have the cash) to bring in LeVeon, that'd be hard to pass up. He's a true game changer.

- I think the loss of Deon Cain is looming large this year, much larger than any of us thought it would. Losing TY has shown us just how mediocre the rest of our receiving corps is. Cain was playing so well in camp, there was a legitimate shot that he could have ended up in the starting lineup. He showed the playmaking skills that we are all begging for right now. Next year, he could be a massive addition to this offense. In the meantime, I'd like to see Fountain to get promoted. It's time to give him a shot. With even more injuries at that position, we need a shot in the arm offensively.  Maybe he's the key?

- Eric Ebron...WOW. So proud of him. He's gonna be a Colt for a LONG time.

- Random free agency thought: Jesse James is a free agent next year. If he doesn't resign in Pittsburgh, he's the type of player that I think Reich would really value.

- So many props to Margus Hunt. Unbelievable story for him. Actually the entire DL deserves credit. Hunt, Sheard, Woods, and Autry have been better than advertised. Turay has made some big plays and looks to be everything they were hoping for. The possible addition of Tyquan Lewis could be big as well.

- What can I say about Maniac that hasn't been said? Dudes a superstar. But I think Anthony Walker deserves a TON of recognition. More credit to Ballard, yet another big piece to our defense added later in the draft.

- The secondary is my biggest concern at the moment. We have a ton of injuries, but, if there was a spot on this team that needed an upgrade, it's the CBs. Not that our corners are bad, they just aren't elite playmakers, and we could definitely use an infusion of talent there.

-With 120 Million in cap space next year, we will be forced to do a heavy amount of spending. Beyond that, I think this was Ballard's plan all along, to get to 2019, giving his '17 and '18 draft picks a chance to play all year and really develop, then have the financial firepower to go after any free agent he wants. Here are a list of some potential offensive targets next year, guys that intrigue ME that I think could help the team. (In no particular order)

RB: LeVeon Bell, Mark Ingram, Tevin Coleman

WR: Randall Cobb, Quincy Enunwa, Tyrell Williams, Geronimo Allison

TE: Jesse James

The defensive free agents are pretty stacked as well.

Just wanted to share the thoughts that have been bouncing around in my head. I really think we are gonna win a bunch of games to end the season. One things for sure, this is a good team, and the future is very bright.

If we spend cap money, I hope it’s on a higher quality CB, at least a #2 WR, a RT, and a pass rusher. Not all these spots but maybe fill 2 spots with an elite guy or just below elite. I don’t want to give Bell a 5 yr max dollar contract but I’d take the risk on a 3 yr deal with incentives built in for max money. I just think he is going to get his money then become lazy and less motivated to maintain an elite status back. Could be wrong but that’s my feeling. 

[coltsfanej]

Good post. Though calling our receivers after Hilton mediocre is a bit of an exaggeration imo. I'd say they've been closer to bad than mediocre. 

[coltsfanej]

10 minutes ago, Jdubu said:

If we spend cap money, I hope it’s on a higher quality CB, at least a #2 WR, a RT, and a pass rusher. Not all these spots but maybe fill 2 spots with an elite guy or just below elite. I don’t want to give Bell a 5 yr max dollar contract but I’d take the risk on a 3 yr deal with incentives built in for max money. I just think he is going to get his money then become lazy and less motivated to maintain an elite status back. Could be wrong but that’s my feeling. 

I agree with ur take on Bell. 

[Bravo]

“They are who we thought they were!”

 

Bad team that is giving its younger players experience like you said. Close to some wins. Need more talent to get those close wins and into the playoffs. Still sticking with my original prediction of the Colts getting only 5-6 wins this year.

 

This offseason is going to be VERY important to the Indianapolis Colts Franchise. It needs to continue making the arrow go up.

 

For now, I will keep believeing in what the Colts front office is doing.

 

[NorthernBlue]

I wanted to see growth this year and that’s exactly what I’m seeing. This young team is making mistakes, but they’ve also held it together battling injuries and a pretty rough schedule so far (4 road games and none of the teams we’ve played are currently under .500).

 

Sucks to be 1-5 and know that our shot at the playoffs is pretty much done (I was one of the few who thought maybe we could do something), but I won’t lie, watching this young team play and grow together this year has been more fun to me than I thought .

[braveheartcolt]

2 hours ago, Jdubu said:

If we spend cap money, I hope it’s on a higher quality CB, at least a #2 WR, a RT, and a pass rusher. Not all these spots but maybe fill 2 spots with an elite guy or just below elite. I don’t want to give Bell a 5 yr max dollar contract but I’d take the risk on a 3 yr deal with incentives built in for max money. I just think he is going to get his money then become lazy and less motivated to maintain an elite status back. Could be wrong but that’s my feeling. 

You were doing fine until you mentioned the 'lazy' stuff. That is just preposterous....

[r a y s k i]

I personally have been impressed by the rookie runners, Wilkins been steady, OL been messy. 

Mack can easily be a stud and 3 down player if he can stay healthy.

 

I have no interest in Leveon at all. 

[coltsfeva]

  Good post. One observation I would add is the play of the Special teams. I believe the punt and kickoff teams are top 5. Adams is a beast!

[Coffeedrinker]

8 hours ago, braveheartcolt said:

And currently 1st on 3rd down conversions. What does that tell us?

It tells us that you don't draft guards in the top 10.

 

[aaron11]

i hope we make some moves next year, cant keep wasting lucks career.  id be looking at defense in the draft and offense in free agency.   dont just sit on 50 million + again please, regardless of where the team is at

 

building through the draft could take years, arguably we have been rebuilding since peyton left despite an afc championship appearance.  you are not built to contend if you cant beat the patriots 

[Legend of Luck]

6 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

i hope we make some moves next year, cant keep wasting lucks career.  id be looking at defense in the draft and offense in free agency.   dont just sit on 50 million + again please, regardless of where the team is at

 

building through the draft could take years, arguably we have been rebuilding since peyton left despite an afc championship appearance.  you are not built to contend if you cant beat the patriots 

 

Due to the rules of cap spending, we HAVE to spend a majority of the space next year or the team will be fined.

[pgt_rob]

Nice post man. I agree that this season is kinda showing us where we are from a ground level perspective. New coaching staff and even though we have 1 win, I agree with you, we've shot ourselves in the foot in nearly every game resulting in a loss. Except for the Patriots game, we were severely, very severely, undermanned. I think we roll with Mack this season and see what we can get out of him. We need our young running backs to prove something right away, don't have much time to be waiting around. I like Mack, but he needs to show a bit more and consistently. If not, we should 100% throw money at Bell next season if he does not sign a contract with the Steelers before then. Our corners stink really bad. They are serviceable but not really playmaker status. I'd also be on the lookout for one in free agency.

[Superman]

40 minutes ago, Legend of Luck said:

 

Due to the rules of cap spending, we HAVE to spend a majority of the space next year or the team will be fined.

 

Don't have to hit the floor until the 2020 season.

[Coltsman1788]

My thoughts on this season in a nutshell:  too many injuries, too many mistakes, not enough wins.

[DougDew]

I said we're a 6 win team at the start of the season.  I'm sticking to it.

[NagelHausForge]

So far this season has been exactly what I think most people imagined it would be, sans the injuries.  

 

Colts have a new scheme, lots of new faces, and a new coaching staff that is still very much trying to fit the pieces of the puzzle in terms of personnel together.  

 

As others have said, it has been very heartening, if not somewhat maddening, that the Colts have been competitive in every game they have lost.  If but for a couple plays or penalties one way or another, the outcome could have been different.

 

If I had to nail down the biggest flaws on both sides of the ball right now they would be the WRs and the CBs.  Granted, injuries have hurt both positional groups but even so, I would say those 2 groups are one of the priorities for next draft/ FA season.   Add into that another stud RT so Smith can move to RG then I would say the line is set.

 

I think we are fine at RB.  Mack/Hines/Wilkins/Turbin are a good combo for what we need.  

 

All in all I have been happy-ish with the performance of the team so far.  It would be nice to have a 3-3 or 4-2 record right now but perhaps the silver lining is that the Colts will have a better draft position next year with the worse record...

 

Sorry for the long post.  Its a slow day in the Army today... 

[Legend of Luck]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

Don't have to hit the floor until the 2020 season.

 

Correct, but in order to hit the required threshold in 2020, we'd have to spend quite a bit next year.

[Jdubu]

9 hours ago, NorthernBlue said:

I wanted to see growth this year and that’s exactly what I’m seeing. This young team is making mistakes, but they’ve also held it together battling injuries and a pretty rough schedule so far (4 road games and none of the teams we’ve played are currently under .500).

 

Sucks to be 1-5 and know that our shot at the playoffs is pretty much done (I was one of the few who thought maybe we could do something), but I won’t lie, watching this young team play and grow together this year has been more fun to me than I thought .

I agree with that last statement. This team has been more enjoyable to watch, despite the mistakes and loses, than most of the Pagano led teams. At least this team feels as though it has a ceiling it can reach. Can’t say that about Paganos last 3 years. 

[Jdubu]

7 hours ago, braveheartcolt said:

You were doing fine until you mentioned the 'lazy' stuff. That is just preposterous....

Time will tell but it’s my gut opinion. I don’t mind being wrong. Wife has beat that part into over the years of how wrong I am lol. 

[CR91]

The colts honestly are not a bad team. its just been very unfortunate dealing with so many injuries on top of being a very young team that is still learning how to win. its going to take some time before we're really a contender. I think Ballard has this team going in the right direction, but we need to weather the storm for now. Its just a shame this rebuilding project is being done during Luck's prime

[Jdubu]

29 minutes ago, Legend of Luck said:

 

Correct, but in order to hit the required threshold in 2020, we'd have to spend quite a bit next year.

I wonder if extending Luck and front loading that contract would be an option while we can absorb a large hit? Then build your team as though you have an average paid QB. Not sure how that could get squeezed in but it’s something we would have the cap space for now. 

[Superman]

30 minutes ago, Legend of Luck said:

 

Correct, but in order to hit the required threshold in 2020, we'd have to spend quite a bit next year.

 

Not necessarily. We probably need to spend a combined $320m over the next two seasons to hit the floor. We'll have about $130m committed next season, including draft picks. 

[DougDew]

47 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Not necessarily. We probably need to spend a combined $320m over the next two seasons to hit the floor. We'll have about $130m committed next season, including draft picks. 

So if my math is right and we only spend $130m next season (we'll spend more), we would have to spend $190m the next season, aka $60m more, or about half again as much as the $130m.  

 

That's a big pig for snake to digest two years from now.

 

We might have to overspend relative to talent available just to spend enough.

[Superman]

Just now, DougDew said:

So if my math is right and we only spend $130m next season (we'll spend more), we would have to spend $190m the next season, aka $60m more, or about half of the $130m.  

 

That's a big pig for snake to digest two years from now.

 

The CBA expires after 2020, so no one can be sure that the salary floor terms will wind up being enforced. We'll see. But I do expect the Colts to spend to the floor, at least, by the end of 2020. 

[DougDew]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

So if my math is right and we only spend $130m next season (we'll spend more), we would have to spend $190m the next season, aka $60m more, or about half again as much as the $130m.  

 

That's a big pig for the snake to digest two years from now.

 

We might have to overspend relative to talent available just to spend enough.

 

[chad72]

Maybe we extend Braden Smith and Darius Leonard in Year 3 (2020) if they continue to improve and play the way they do now, that would also count towards the floor, extending our own guys we want to keep.

 

Plus, the 2020 free agent class looks better to me on the surface. Tyler Boyd and Sterling Shepard are free agents then. 

 

[ColtsBlueFL]

13 hours ago, Jdubu said:

{snip}

I don’t want to give Bell a 5 yr max dollar contract but I’d take the risk on a 3 yr deal with incentives built in for max money. I just think he is going to get his money then become lazy and less motivated to maintain an elite status back. Could be wrong but that’s my feeling. 

 

Won't fly.  He wants guaranteed money.  Todd Gurley get a 5 year deal with 45 million in guarantees.  Bell wants even more...

 

5 hours ago, Legend of Luck said:

 

Due to the rules of cap spending, we HAVE to spend a majority of the space next year or the team will be fined.

 

The 89% rule does not apply to a single season, or even 3, but rather an aggregate over four years. No team failed to meet the 89% rule from 2013-2016.  We are currently in year 2 of the next quad. Therefore, it doesn't matter if the Colts had spend less than 89% in 2017, or if they even spent less than 89% in 2018. By the end of the 2020 season, though, the cumulative spending from 2017-2020 must be at least 89% of the cap, in 'cash'. Therefore, if the Colts spent very little in 2017 and 2018, in order to meet the requirement in 2020, they quite likely would be forced to spend a lot more money in 2019 and 2020.  Last I checked, Colts spent about 86% in 2017. 

 

I have not figured out (nor heard) how much Colts are on track to spend this year; but I guess it is already in the area around 76% and could/will climb as more players are to be signed during the year.  But the team doesn't have to make the 89% cash 'number' until 2020.

In addition, if the team doesn't quite make the 89% total by 2020, the Colts will have to cut a check to the NFLPA in an amount that makes up for the shortfall, so they can distribute it among the players that were on the Colts roster(s) in that time frame.

[Finball]

56 minutes ago, chad72 said:

Maybe we extend Braden Smith and Darius Leonard in Year 3 (2020) if they continue to improve and play the way they do now, that would also count towards the floor, extending our own guys we want to keep.

 

Plus, the 2020 free agent class looks better to me on the surface. Tyler Boyd and Sterling Shepard are free agents then. 

 

 

Smith and Leonard can't be extended until the 2020 season is over.

 

2020 FA class looks great now bc only some UDFAs have been available for an extension. It will look weaker year from now and even weaker on March 2020. How much weaker, that remains to be seen.

[Legend of Luck]

3 hours ago, Jdubu said:

I wonder if extending Luck and front loading that contract would be an option while we can absorb a large hit? Then build your team as though you have an average paid QB. Not sure how that could get squeezed in but it’s something we would have the cap space for now. 

 

If we needed to, that would work. Extend him and front load his contract. 

 

3 hours ago, DougDew said:

So if my math is right and we only spend $130m next season (we'll spend more), we would have to spend $190m the next season, aka $60m more, or about half again as much as the $130m.  

 

That's a big pig for snake to digest two years from now.

 

We might have to overspend relative to talent available just to spend enough.

 

I expect we'll spend some FA money, but worst case scenario, we extend some guys and front load their deals like Ballard did when he brought guys in last year.

[Finball]

38 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Won't fly.  He wants guaranteed money.  Todd Gurley get a 5 year deal with 45 million in guarantees.  Bell wants even more…

 

 

 

It was 4 yr deal and it effectively guarantees just under 50M based on how the contract was structured. But it's bit different since Gurley had 1 year left on his rookie deal and an option year at just under 10M.

 

Shorter contracts are generally smart for a player but incentive based deals are not, especially for a RB. So I think he could take 3yr deal but not incentive based.

[esmort]

3 hours ago, DougDew said:

So if my math is right and we only spend $130m next season (we'll spend more), we would have to spend $190m the next season, aka $60m more, or about half again as much as the $130m.  

 

That's a big pig for snake to digest two years from now.

 

We might have to overspend relative to talent available just to spend enough.

 

I don't it would be nearly as hard as you believe to spend the amount needed to reach the floor even without going wild on free agency. 

 

Ballard could use up that money with just our own players we want to keep or extend, and several mid - low level FAs by how he structures the contracts. I don't think that's the plan, but there is definitely nothing forcing his hand financially to spend big in free agency. 

[Finball]

3 hours ago, Jdubu said:

I wonder if extending Luck and front loading that contract would be an option while we can absorb a large hit? Then build your team as though you have an average paid QB. Not sure how that could get squeezed in but it’s something we would have the cap space for now. 

 

It's cash spending that counts, not cap. And QBs usually get huge signing bonus so cash gets spend right there. Assuming the carryover rule is in Place for the next CBA, there is no need to absorb big cap hit which is usually trickier with QBs bc of big signing bonus though it can be done if QB is ok with smaller signing bonus and taking the money in roster bonuses. Like Garoppolo who has cap hit of almost 40M this year.

[NorthernBlue]

5 hours ago, Jdubu said:

I agree with that last statement. This team has been more enjoyable to watch, despite the mistakes and loses, than most of the Pagano led teams. At least this team feels as though it has a ceiling it can reach. Can’t say that about Paganos last 3 years. 

Exactly. We overachieved with Pagano, even the years we went 8-8.

 

I genuinely think the team is building the foundation for a perennial contender. We will have to see if they can reach that potential.

[Coffeedrinker]

5 hours ago, Superman said:

 

The CBA expires after 2020, so no one can be sure that the salary floor terms will wind up being enforced. We'll see. But I do expect the Colts to spend to the floor, at least, by the end of 2020. 

With viewership down across on networks and attendance going down in most stadiums, I think there is a very good chance that the salary cap will go down with the CBA in 2020.

 

It could be Ballard is thinking the same thing and is not going to put the team in a bind where they have to get rid of some higher priced veterans just to make the salary cap.  

[NewColtsFan]

21 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

With viewership down across on networks and attendance going down in most stadiums, I think there is a very good chance that the salary cap will go down with the CBA in 2020.

 

It could be Ballard is thinking the same thing and is not going to put the team in a bind where they have to get rid of some higher priced veterans just to make the salary cap.  

 

I don't know about attendance down in most games,  but for what it's worth,  I heard an interview with Goodell yesterday at the owners quarterly meeting in NYC.

 

And the Commish says ratings are up across all platforms.    TV, internet,  streaming, etc.

 

I don't think we're going to have to worry about the cap going down.    It may not go up as much,  but down appears highly unlikely.

 

[Coffeedrinker]

3 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I don't know about attendance down in most games,  but for what it's worth,  I heard an interview with Goodell yesterday at the owners quarterly meeting in NYC.

 

And the Commish says ratings are up across all platforms.    TV, internet,  streaming, etc.

 

I don't think we're going to have to worry about the cap going down.    It may not go up as much,  but down appears highly unlikely.

 

Goodell is a good talking head and politician.  Yes ratings are up, slightly, over last year.  But last year the ratings plummeted and they are down significantly from 2010/2011.  Here is a chart that shows add spending (bars) with ratings red line.

 

And maybe streaming media/internet is the reason, so it's not a loss it's a shift.  It will be interesting in 2020.