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Simulated Mock Drafts for the 2019 NFL Draft

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I think Ballard likes to double up on positions in drafts to create more competition. I also went all in on this draft this year to try to speed up the "rebuilding" process. High risk high reward. I traded our first round pick this year and our first round pick next year for Oaklands first round pick 25 and 27 and their second round pick two. 

 

25: R1P25

EDGE JACHAI POLITE- very high ceiling perfect for robert mathis to work with

FLORIDA

 

27: R1P27

DL JEFFERY SIMMONS- 3 technique with character issues can move blockers very well

MISSISSIPPI STATE

 

34: R2P2

CB DEANDRE BAKER- little smaller but great cover corner

GEORGIA

 

36: R2P4

DL DEXTER LAWRENCE- nose tackle can take up blockers stop the run and get to the quarterback. 

CLEMSON

 

51: R2P19

CB AMANI ORUWARIYE- big corner better for zone so should fit our system well

PENN STATE

82: R3P18

 

WR KELVIN HARMON- big body great awareness could be a good number 2 but we have bad luck with receivers for some reason

NC STATE

 

121: R4P19

OT KALEB MCGARY- good back up at right tackle before smith got settled in right tackle was a revolving door

WASHINGTON

 

135: R4P33

LB JOE GILES-HARRIS- good coverage linebacker should fit in great with our WLB & MLB.  Anthony Walker went down this week and you could tell he wasn't in the lineup

DUKE

 

158: R5P19

OT ISAIAH PRINCE- ballard wants ten olinemen so he is going to keep drafting them

OHIO STATE

 

193: R6P18

QB JARRETT STIDHAM- getting an option so we have an option to  trade Jacoby and get more draft capital

AUBURN

 

235: R7P19

EDGE ULYSEES GILBERT III- throwing a dart in the seventh round because i like his name

AKRON

 

 

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Here's my post playoffs attempt:

 

26: R1P26

DL JEFFERY SIMMONS

MISSISSIPPI STATE

 

34: R2P2

CB DEANDRE BAKER

GEORGIA

 

58: R2P26

WR MARQUISE BROWN

OKLAHOMA

 

89: R3P25

WR HAKEEM BUTLER

IOWA STATE

 

128: R4P26

EDGE JAYLON FERGUSON

LOUISIANA TECH

 

135: R4P33

RB DAVID MONTGOMERY

IOWA STATE

 

165: R5P26

TE KADEN SMITH

STANFORD

 

200: R6P25

LB GARY JOHNSON

TEXAS

 

242: R7P26

WR GREG DORTCH

WAKE FOREST

 

 

Thoughts?

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This is my latest attempt:  I think it's a draft we could (as fans) be happy with.

 

26: R1P26

 

LB DEVIN WHITE - Imagine our LB core w/ DL, AW and DW!!

LSU

34: R2P2

 

DL DEXTER LAWRENCE - Disruptive  DL who can also rush the QB

CLEMSON

58: R2P26

 

WR N'KEAL HARRY - Big bodied WR for 50/50 balls

ARIZONA STATE

89: R3P25

 

C DALTON RISNER - Best center in draft, need a backup for if/when Kelly goes down, can also be a G

KANSAS STATE

128: R4P26

 

S DARNELL SAVAGE JR. - Backup / replacement for Geathers

MARYLAND

135: R4P33

 

RB KARAN HIGDON - Depth RB

MICHIGAN

165: R5P26

 

Honestly, don't know much about the last few picks, just got best value based on draft position

 

CB MYLES BRYANT

WASHINGTON

200: R6P25

 

EDGE MALIK REED

NEVADA

242: R7P26

 

EDGE SUTTON SMITH

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

 

 

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It's too early for me to draft by player / position. A lot depends on whether we want to transition from Cover 2 to something different / diversify on defense. Pass rush and WR seem obvious - but we will need to see how FA pans out before setting draft priorities.

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Pretty sure I've seen every single one of these picks, with the exception of the last one, mocked in the first round on various mocks that I've come across. So... Super realistic, lol. Here's hoping!

 

26: R1P26

 

DL CHRISTIAN WILKINS

CLEMSON

34: R2P2

 

EDGE BRIAN BURNS

FLORIDA STATE

58: R2P26

 

WR N'KEAL HARRY

ARIZONA STATE

89: R3P25

 

CB JULIAN LOVE

NOTRE DAME

128: R4P26

 

DL RASHARD LAWRENCE

LSU

135: R4P33

 

S C GARDNER-JOHNSON

FLORIDA

165: R5P26

 

LB DEVIN BUSH

MICHIGAN

200: R6P25

 

TE IRV SMITH JR.

ALABAMA

242: R7P26

 

G BOBBY EVANS

OKLAHOMA

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26: R1P26

DL JEFFERY SIMMONS

MISSISSIPPI STATE

 

34: R2P2

S DEIONTE THOMPSON

ALABAMA

 

58: R2P26

CB JULIAN LOVE

NOTRE DAME

 

89: R3P25

WR KELVIN HARMON

NC STATE

 

128: R4P26

RB DAMIEN HARRIS

ALABAMA

 

135: R4P33

OT WILLIAM SWEET 

UNC

 

165: R5P26

G ULUI LAPUAHO

BYU

 

200: R6P25

WR HUNTER RENFOW

CLEMSON

 

242: R7P26

EDGE CARL GRANDERSON

WYOMING

 

I ran this on FanSpeak. And while I know some of the picks are not realistic, but this is how the picks went. Based on that, what do you guys think?

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Here is one more simulated mock draft. I went based on what I thought was good value at No.26 and on wards as I picked:

 

26: R1P26

EDGE MONTEZ SWEAT

MISSISSIPPI STATE

 

34: R2P2

WR HAKEEM BUTLER

IOWA STATE

 

58: R2P26

S CHAUNCEY GARDNER-JOHNSON

FLORIDA

 

89: R3P25

OT DALTON RISNER

KANSAS STATE

 

128: R4P26

LB KHALIL HODGE

BUFFALO

 

135: R4P33

RB BENNY SNELL

KENTUCKY

 

165: R5P26

DL DONTAVIUS RUSSELL

AUBURN

 

200: R6P25

CB BLACE BROWN

TROY

 

242: R7P26

DL LJ COLLIER

TCU

 

I saw this detailed breakdown of Benny Snell and couldn't be anything but impressed as I dug deeper, he does not have much wear and tear, IMO:

 

https://www.ganggreennation.com/2018/10/6/17943600/2018-nfl-draft-prospect-profile-benny-snell-iii-rb-kentucky

 

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2 hours ago, chad72 said:

Here is one more simulated mock draft. I went based on what I thought was good value at No.26 and on wards as I picked:

 

26: R1P26

EDGE MONTEZ SWEAT

MISSISSIPPI STATE

 

34: R2P2

WR HAKEEM BUTLER

IOWA STATE

 

58: R2P26

S CHAUNCEY GARDNER-JOHNSON

FLORIDA

 

89: R3P25

OT DALTON RISNER

KANSAS STATE

 

128: R4P26

LB KHALIL HODGE

BUFFALO

 

135: R4P33

RB BENNY SNELL

KENTUCKY

 

165: R5P26

DL DONTAVIUS RUSSELL

AUBURN

 

200: R6P25

CB BLACE BROWN

TROY

 

242: R7P26

DL LJ COLLIER

TCU

 

I saw this detailed breakdown of Benny Snell and couldn't be anything but impressed as I dug deeper, he does not have much wear and tear, IMO:

 

https://www.ganggreennation.com/2018/10/6/17943600/2018-nfl-draft-prospect-profile-benny-snell-iii-rb-kentucky

 

 

This would be an excellent draft. The value at each pick is well done. 

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I like that this thread started with us picking at #6.  As the thread goes along, we just keep moving back.  All the way to #26.

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On 10/12/2018 at 11:07 AM, stitches said:

I finally decided to run a simulation on Fanspeak for the 2019 draft and ended up playing around with it for half an hour. :D

 

Here's a thread for everybody to post their own simulated mock drafts. Here's my first of the year: 

 

I don’t know how badly I would want a guy named greedy when it comes to resigning him

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The thing about all of those mocks is that some of the players you have the Colts landing in the 2nd, 3rd, even 4th will be long gone before our picks in those rounds. While it would be great to land 1st-2nd round talent with the first 5 picks, it just isn't gonna happen. 

 

The more I read in columns by guys that know Ballard/Reich far greater than me, the more I believe that they won't end up taking a WR until the 3rd st the earliest. Ballard is gonna go defense early and often, and this is the perfect draft for that. I could see them landing one of the stud DL in the 1st, with all of the QBs that are likely to be selected way too early, then either Onumariye or Baker at CB with the 1st in the 2nd, then either a S or LB with the other 2nd. Ballard just hasn't ever been known to be aggresive when it comes to the WR position, and the odds of him starting now are slim. That being said, I'd love to see him take a Hakeem Butler, Kelvin Harmon, or DK Metcalf with on of our first 3 picks, but if I had to bet it won't be addressed that early. I think they have a lot of faith in the young WRs already on the roster. They see these guys day in and day out, so realistically they have more perspective than all of us armchair GMs have combined. I see them keeping Inman and hoping Fountain ir another of the young nucleus develops into a reliable #2. 

 

Hopefully they do land a Benny Snell in the middle rounds, we need a tough RB that can be used in short yardage or goal-line situations. I'm obviously a biased ND fan (sadly...thx Clemson) but would love for the Colts to add Dexter Williams from ND. He could most likely be had in the 6th round or so, and oozes with NFL RB traits. He's tough, has strong legs, and is a downhill runner; watched him break several really impressive runs this year. 

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Yet another one.....

26: R1P26

DL CHRISTIAN WILKINS

CLEMSON

 

34: R2P2

S NASIR ADDERLEY

DELAWARE

 

58: R2P26

WR A.J. BROWN

MISSISSIPPI

 

89: R3P25

CB AMANI ORUWARIYE

PENN STATE

 

128: R4P26

EDGE CHARLES OMENIHU

TEXAS

 

135: R4P33

RB ELIJAH HOLYFIELD

GEORGIA

 

165: R5P26

OT MARCUS NORMAN

SOUTH FLORIDA

 

200: R6P25

G VENZELL BOULWARE

MIAMI

 

242: R7P26

CB DAVID LONG

MICHIGAN

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Finally had some time to try my first mock of this year and I think it turned out quite well. Traded back from the top of the second to the mid-second, picking up another 3rd rounder. 

 

26: R1P26

EDGE BRIAN BURNS

FSU

 

Out of all the EDGE guys that could be there at 26, I like Burns the most, Oshane Ximenes is another guy I think would add some much needed pass rush if Burns is not there.

 

51: R2P19

OT DALTON RISNER

KANSAS STATE

 

After his strong senior bowl performance there are doubts he will be there in the mid-second, have seen him mocked from the late first to the late second. Lack of a clear position might cause him to fall a little bit (wishful thinking on my part).

 

59: R2P27

CB AMANI ORUWARIYE

PENN STATE

 

Oruwariye is a perfect fit for our scheme IMO, great ball skills, excels in zone coverage. If we want to continue playing as much zone as we did last season, this should be the pick in case we go corner early.

 

82: R3P18

WR JJ ARCEGA-WHITESIDE

STANFORD

 

I doubt Ballard takes a receiver with one of our first 2 picks, Whiteside would be good value in the third, he doesn't have the pure speed of Brown or Samuel, but is a pretty good route runner already, getting separation without top end speed and can make the contested catch consistently. I can see him being a red-zone weapon for Luck, taking some pressure off of Ebron in that regard. (Obviously Deon Cain might have to say something about that as well, but you really can't count on a guy coming off of an ACL)

 

89: R3P25

S AMANI HOOKER

IOWA

 

I expect us to tender Farley and bring back Geathers on a short term deal, while letting Mitchell walk. But even with Farley and Geathers back, Safety remains a need. Especially if you consider that we run a lot of nickel and dime packages, Amani Hooker would provide depth and the traits required of a SS next to our other Hooker. Run support and coverage on short and intermediate routes, while Malik can be the centerfielder he was projected to be.

 

129: R4P27

DL KHALEN SAUNDERS

WESTERN ILLINOIS

 

I think that with the depth of the interior DL class, Ballard can afford to wait maybe longer than most predict to get help there, guys like Renell Wren and Saunders are disruptive players inside that can be had in round 3 or 4 (their stock is rising after the senior bowl showing however), while some of the predicted 1st or 2nd rounders like Dexter Lawrence or Dre'Mont Jones could struggle getting pressure at the next level.

 

135: R4P33

WR TERRY MCLAURIN

OHIO STATE

 

McLaurin is the kind of prospect that's just meant to be drafted by Ballard. Yes, he's had his problems with drops, but he's got the speed, route running ability, IQ and leadership skills. Originally from Indianapolis, he was one of the leaders with the Buckeyes last year and his eloquence in interviews reminded me of a Nyheim Hines interview on GMF I watched this season. With him being compared to Nate Burleson and him being mentioned as a future CEO, I can absolutely see Ballard making this pick. 

 

I didn't include Round 5-7, because even rounds 3 and 4 seem to be a shot in the dark before the combine, there really is no way to foresee how things will shake out exactly, tried to get the value of the players right to a certain degree however. While Wren was there on the board in the fourth for example, I don't think he will be in reality, so I took Saunders instead. 

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29 minutes ago, PureLuck said:

Finally had some time to try my first mock of this year and I think it turned out quite well. Traded back from the top of the second to the mid-second, picking up another 3rd rounder. 

 

26: R1P26

EDGE BRIAN BURNS

FSU

 

Out of all the EDGE guys that could be there at 26, I like Burns the most, Oshane Ximenes is another guy I think would add some much needed pass rush if Burns is not there.

 

51: R2P19

OT DALTON RISNER

KANSAS STATE

 

After his strong senior bowl performance there are doubts he will be there in the mid-second, have seen him mocked from the late first to the late second. Lack of a clear position might cause him to fall a little bit (wishful thinking on my part).

 

59: R2P27

CB AMANI ORUWARIYE

PENN STATE

 

Oruwariye is a perfect fit for our scheme IMO, great ball skills, excels in zone coverage. If we want to continue playing as much zone as we did last season, this should be the pick in case we go corner early.

 

82: R3P18

WR JJ ARCEGA-WHITESIDE

STANFORD

 

I doubt Ballard takes a receiver with one of our first 2 picks, Whiteside would be good value in the third, he doesn't have the pure speed of Brown or Samuel, but is a pretty good route runner already, getting separation without top end speed and can make the contested catch consistently. I can see him being a red-zone weapon for Luck, taking some pressure off of Ebron in that regard. (Obviously Deon Cain might have to say something about that as well, but you really can't count on a guy coming off of an ACL)

 

89: R3P25

S AMANI HOOKER

IOWA

 

I expect us to tender Farley and bring back Geathers on a short term deal, while letting Mitchell walk. But even with Farley and Geathers back, Safety remains a need. Especially if you consider that we run a lot of nickel and dime packages, Amani Hooker would provide depth and the traits required of a SS next to our other Hooker. Run support and coverage on short and intermediate routes, while Malik can be the centerfielder he was projected to be.

 

129: R4P27

DL KHALEN SAUNDERS

WESTERN ILLINOIS

 

I think that with the depth of the interior DL class, Ballard can afford to wait maybe longer than most predict to get help there, guys like Renell Wren and Saunders are disruptive players inside that can be had in round 3 or 4 (their stock is rising after the senior bowl showing however), while some of the predicted 1st or 2nd rounders like Dexter Lawrence or Dre'Mont Jones could struggle getting pressure at the next level.

 

135: R4P33

WR TERRY MCLAURIN

OHIO STATE

 

McLaurin is the kind of prospect that's just meant to be drafted by Ballard. Yes, he's had his problems with drops, but he's got the speed, route running ability, IQ and leadership skills. Originally from Indianapolis, he was one of the leaders with the Buckeyes last year and his eloquence in interviews reminded me of a Nyheim Hines interview on GMF I watched this season. With him being compared to Nate Burleson and him being mentioned as a future CEO, I can absolutely see Ballard making this pick. 

 

I didn't include Round 5-7, because even rounds 3 and 4 seem to be a shot in the dark before the combine, there really is no way to foresee how things will shake out exactly, tried to get the value of the players right to a certain degree however. While Wren was there on the board in the fourth for example, I don't think he will be in reality, so I took Saunders instead. 

 

We have the 34th overall pick (from the Jets).

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31 minutes ago, PureLuck said:

Finally had some time to try my first mock of this year and I think it turned out quite well. Traded back from the top of the second to the mid-second, picking up another 3rd rounder. 

 

26: R1P26

EDGE BRIAN BURNS

FSU

 

Out of all the EDGE guys that could be there at 26, I like Burns the most, Oshane Ximenes is another guy I think would add some much needed pass rush if Burns is not there.

 

51: R2P19

OT DALTON RISNER

KANSAS STATE

 

After his strong senior bowl performance there are doubts he will be there in the mid-second, have seen him mocked from the late first to the late second. Lack of a clear position might cause him to fall a little bit (wishful thinking on my part).

 

59: R2P27

CB AMANI ORUWARIYE

PENN STATE

 

Oruwariye is a perfect fit for our scheme IMO, great ball skills, excels in zone coverage. If we want to continue playing as much zone as we did last season, this should be the pick in case we go corner early.

 

82: R3P18

WR JJ ARCEGA-WHITESIDE

STANFORD

 

I doubt Ballard takes a receiver with one of our first 2 picks, Whiteside would be good value in the third, he doesn't have the pure speed of Brown or Samuel, but is a pretty good route runner already, getting separation without top end speed and can make the contested catch consistently. I can see him being a red-zone weapon for Luck, taking some pressure off of Ebron in that regard. (Obviously Deon Cain might have to say something about that as well, but you really can't count on a guy coming off of an ACL)

 

89: R3P25

S AMANI HOOKER

IOWA

 

I expect us to tender Farley and bring back Geathers on a short term deal, while letting Mitchell walk. But even with Farley and Geathers back, Safety remains a need. Especially if you consider that we run a lot of nickel and dime packages, Amani Hooker would provide depth and the traits required of a SS next to our other Hooker. Run support and coverage on short and intermediate routes, while Malik can be the centerfielder he was projected to be.

 

129: R4P27

DL KHALEN SAUNDERS

WESTERN ILLINOIS

 

I think that with the depth of the interior DL class, Ballard can afford to wait maybe longer than most predict to get help there, guys like Renell Wren and Saunders are disruptive players inside that can be had in round 3 or 4 (their stock is rising after the senior bowl showing however), while some of the predicted 1st or 2nd rounders like Dexter Lawrence or Dre'Mont Jones could struggle getting pressure at the next level.

 

135: R4P33

WR TERRY MCLAURIN

OHIO STATE

 

McLaurin is the kind of prospect that's just meant to be drafted by Ballard. Yes, he's had his problems with drops, but he's got the speed, route running ability, IQ and leadership skills. Originally from Indianapolis, he was one of the leaders with the Buckeyes last year and his eloquence in interviews reminded me of a Nyheim Hines interview on GMF I watched this season. With him being compared to Nate Burleson and him being mentioned as a future CEO, I can absolutely see Ballard making this pick. 

 

I didn't include Round 5-7, because even rounds 3 and 4 seem to be a shot in the dark before the combine, there really is no way to foresee how things will shake out exactly, tried to get the value of the players right to a certain degree however. While Wren was there on the board in the fourth for example, I don't think he will be in reality, so I took Saunders instead. 

 

I like the idea of trading back to acquire more picks, there's a lot of talent in the 2nd-3rd Round range this year, may as well fully exploit that. 

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As I stated above, I traded back from 34 with the Titans for 51 and 82, which is about equal value according to the trade value chart ;)

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2 minutes ago, PureLuck said:

As I stated above, I traded back from 34 with the Titans for 51 and 82, which is about equal value according to the trade value chart ;)

 

Yeah I read that eventually lol, I'm at the end of a 3rd shift, so things are processing a little slower than normal

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2 minutes ago, stitches said:

My latest attempt:

 

8MvgXVy.jpg

 

Thoughts? 

 

Very good one, the team would be much improved with this draft. Where did you do this mock? Doesn't look like fanspeak, just curious?

 

I decided to do a little different-than-my-previous-ones type of draft and this is how it turned out:

 

26: R1P26

S TAYLOR RAPP

WASHINGTON

 

34: R2P2

WR A.J. BROWN

OLE MISS

 

59: R2P27

CB JUSTIN LAYNE

MICHIGAN STATE

 

89: R3P25

EDGE CHARLES OMENIHU

TEXAS

 

129: R4P27

DL KHALEN SAUNDERS

WESTERN ILLINOIS

 

135: R4P33

RB DEXTER WILLIAMS

NOTRE DAME

 

164: R5P26

DL RENELL WREN

ARIZONA ST

 

199: R6P26

TE JOSH OLIVER

SAN JOSE STATE

 

240: R7P26

LB DREW LEWIS

COLORADO

 

Some were downright surprising, as to how some players were available where they were, but I took it and ran!!! :) 

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4 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Very good one, the team would be much improved with this draft. Where did you do this mock? Doesn't look like fanspeak, just curious?

 

I decided to do a little different-than-my-previous-ones type of draft and this is how it turned out:

 

26: R1P26

S TAYLOR RAPP

WASHINGTON

 

34: R2P2

WR A.J. BROWN

OLE MISS

 

59: R2P27

CB JUSTIN LAYNE

MICHIGAN STATE

 

89: R3P25

EDGE CHARLES OMENIHU

TEXAS

 

129: R4P27

DL KHALEN SAUNDERS

WESTERN ILLINOIS

 

135: R4P33

RB DEXTER WILLIAMS

NOTRE DAME

 

164: R5P26

DL RENELL WREN

ARIZONA ST

 

199: R6P26

TE JOSH OLIVER

SAN JOSE STATE

 

240: R7P26

LB DREW LEWIS

COLORADO

 

Some were downright surprising, as to how some players were available where they were, but I took it and ran!!! :) 

The draft network has a draft machine/simulator. 

 

I like most of your pick. I don't love the Rapp pick too much. 

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26 minutes ago, stitches said:

My latest attempt:

 

8MvgXVy.jpg

 

Thoughts? 

I'd take this all day every day.

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My first one on draft network simulator, was fun, thanks to @stitches for letting me know about it:

 

  image.png.77d4de4e38f1a5fe85773c6924dc56fe.png

 

26 - Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson

34 - Montez Sweat, DE, Miss. St.

59 - Taylor Rapp, S, Washington

89 - Paris Campbell, WR, Ohio State

129 - David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State

135 - Preston Williams, WR, Colorado State

164 - Mark Fields, CB, Clemson

199 - Greg Gaines, NT, Washington

240 - Isaiah Prince, OT, Ohio State

 

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I tried to go a bit different with this one:


 

Quote

 

1: R1P26

TE TJ HOCKENSON

IOWA

 

2: R2P2

EDGE CHASE WINOVICH

MICHIGAN

 

3: R2P27

S CHAUNCEY GARDNER-JOHNSON

FLORIDA

 

4: R3P25

DL ANTHONY NELSON

IOWA

 

5: R4P27

WR PENNY HART

GEORGIA STATE

 

6: R4P33

CB MICHAEL JACKSON

MIAMI

 

7: R5P26

EDGE JUSTIN HOLLINS

OREGON

 

8: R6P26

CB MARK FIELDS

CLEMSON

 

9: R7P26

OG G NATE DAVIS

UNC-CHARLOTTE

 

 

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26: R1P26

 

DL JEFFERY SIMMONS

MISSISSIPPI ST.

34: R2P2

 

S NASIR ADDERLEY

DELAWARE

59: R2P27

 

WR N’KEAL HARRY

ARIZONA ST.

89: R3P25

 

DL JOE JACKSON

MIAMI (FL)

129: R4P27

 

RB BENNY SNELL, JR.

KENTUCKY

135: R4P33

 

CB COREY BALLENTINE

WASHBURN

164: R5P26

 

CB MICHAEL JACKSON

MIAMI (FL)

199: R6P26

 

LB TRE LAMAR

CLEMSON

240: R7P26

 

LB DAVID LONG, JR.

WEST VIRGINIA

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26: R1P26

TE TJ HOCKENSON IOWA

34: R2P2

DL DEXTER LAWRENCE CLEMSON

59: R2P27

S TAYLOR RAPP WASHINGTON

89: R3P25

WR HAKEEM BUTLER IOWA STATE

129: R4P27

G MICHAEL JORDAN OHIO STATE

135: R4P33

LB TERRILL HANKS N MEXICO ST

164: R5P26

CB IMAN LEWIS-MARSHALL USC

199: R6P26

OT TYLER ROEMER SAN DIEGO ST

240: R7P26

DL MAXX CROSBY

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I like the draft network projections a little better for their mock draft simulator here:

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/mock-draft-machine

 

image.png.117c12aff31e5dd9cff281328ee7638f.png

 

image.png.f11c3951e8ec78353dbb2779cf499241.png

 

26 - Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame

34 - Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson

59 - Amani Oruwariye, CB, Penn State

89 - Amani Hooker, S, Iowa

129 - Preston Williams, WR, Colorado State

135 - Miles Boykin, WR, Notre Dame

164 - Elijah Holyfield, RB, Georgia

199 - T.J.Edwards, LB, Wisconsin

240 - Mitch Hyatt, OT, Clemson

 

 

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This was fun.....

 

Round 1 Pick 26: Baker, Deandre, CB, Georgia (A)
Round 2 Pick 2: Harry, NKeal, WR, Arizona State (A)
Round 2 Pick 27: Allen, Zach, DE, Boston College (A-)
Round 3 Pick 25: Coney, Te'von, ILB, Notre Dame (A)
Round 4 Pick 27: Hanks, Terrill, OLB, New Mexico State (A+)
Round 4 Pick 33 (COMP): Evans, Bobby, OT, Oklahoma (A+)
Round 5 Pick 26: Gaines, Greg, DT, Washington (A+)
Round 6 Pick 26: Boykin, Miles, WR, Notre Dame (A+)
Round 7 Pick 26: Love, Bryce, RB, Stanford (A+)

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    • IMO this is the wrong way to look at it. IMO the reason they drop 7-8 is not because they don't fear the run game - it's because they fear the pass game much more than they fear the run game. This is especially true when you have a combination of 1. Exceptional QB with great receivers and 2. bad running game. In general the level of fear that teams should show is:   1. Fear of great passing attack 2. Fear of bad passing attack 3. Fear of great running attack 4. Fear of bad running attack.    And the distance between 1 and 4 should be light years! And when you get on your team both great passing attack and horrible running attack this forces opponents to send more help to cover.    It is not a coincidence that teams with great running backs like KC(before Hunt got banished) and the Saints(Kamara) and the Rams(Gurley) faced the least amount of stacked boxes ... this goes directly against what you would assume teams would do in a situation where they face elite running backs. The reason is - they just feared those teams passing games MUCH MORE! The passing game dictates how many people you send to cover much more than the running game.    And at the same time teams like Dallas, TEN, JAX had most stacked boxes - it's because the opponents didn't fear their passing game. I'm using just anecdotes here but the data overall supports that. The passing game strength overall dictates coverage vs run support much more than the quality of the run game. The weaker your pass game is the more stacked boxes you will see almost regardless of how good your RB/running game is.    I said 'almost' above because I can see a situation where you need to have some base level of a threat from the run. You need to at least be a threat to run it.   The short answer is ... weak passing game. Notice that this is all relative. No team will 100% leave 8 in the box and not team will 100% leave 8 in coverage. We are talking about percentages. The weaker the passing game, the more attention your run game will get from the defense pre-snap. This is alignment based... now once the snap is made the defenders have to read run and pass keys in order to know whether they should choose optimal strategy for run defense or pass-defense. In general the reason play-action(and RPO) works is because of the THREAT of the run, not the success of the run(it doesn't matter if you run it for 4.2yards a run(where we were last year) or 4.7yard a run(where Reich wants us to be). So ... my point is not that you have to completely ignore the run. You don't ignore it. You still have to keep the threat that you will run it(by running it often enough) in order to make the defenders still read the keys and give you the extra second or so that running the play action gives you while the defenders are reading the run key you are giving(faking to) them. You just don't generally care much if you run for 4.7 or 4.2 when it comes to your passing game or your play-action game. Teams react the same way to 4.7y teams as they do to 4.2y teams when it comes to play action as long as you keep the threat that you will run high enough to make defenders still read their run keys. (now this is another thing I have not seen yet, but expect at some point in the future- some defensive coordinator will say - just screw it - play the pass 100% and don't read the run keys... play the run on your way to the passer and I don't know what will happen then)      Well, that quote is a bit of an exaggeration to bring the point across. You won't really wait for the old timers to die out. Just... the more young blood comes in(Shanahan, McVey, etc.) and tries the new stuff and succeeds with it against the old strategies the more the old timers that are unable to adjust will lose their jobs to the new kids and so on. This pretty much already happened in the NBA. It's a new league now compared to just 5-10 years ago. It didn't happen because the old timers died out, it happened because the new strategies proved better and more efficient and even some of the old timers borrowed from them and incorporated them into their game plans. IMO similar things are happening and will continue to happen in the NFL. It probably will take longer because in general the NFL seems more conservative of a league but IMO it will happen sooner or later.    In 20-30 years I think we will be laughing at things like "establish the run" or "first we need to stop the run", just like we would be laughing at statements like "what this team really needs is more post ups for their center" or "this guy should have just taken one dribble into the 2p range and taken the shorter 20 feet jumper instead of the 24 feet open 3" in the NBA-context right now. 
    • Thats a bummer.  She is talented and her and Matt Taylor worked well together. 
    • "But really what is going to set the tone for us is going to be how we run the football. That is not going to change. We have to run the football. Our goal is going to be a top-five rushing football team. That will set up our play-action pass. That will set up all the big chunk plays. To me that will get us where we want to go.” https://www.colts.com/news/top-takeaways-frank-reich-on-otas-day-1     Just as Reich has stated above I do believe a good ground game opens up more favorable passing opportunities because teams have to committ more personnel than they would like to run defense. That in itself sets up more opportunities for you to get one on one coverage down the field.  I think you get less of those opportunities if you can't run.   If I want more one on one coverage down field I'd like to know how I'm supposed to do that if I don't need to run? I guess maybe you'd say screens or something?  I'm sure he's saying this based off what he's experienced during games and what he's seen on film.
    • One of my issues and I belive Princeton Tiger brought it up also was when your running game is not very effective.  For example in Peytons last years in Indy our run game was abysmal and teams literally ignored all of our play action fakes. Or you can even look at some of our seasons under Pagano.  They dropped 8 and rushed three a large majority of the time because they had little fear that we could do anything on the ground.  Do you think that happens to us with a successful rushing attack? I personally don't believe so.   I think when you are able to run it forces the defense to leave less defenders in coverage.   I don't want to turn this into a long drawn out debate but I believe your contention was it isnt the amount of times you run but more of the effect of the play action itself.  So when the defense is ignoring the play action then what is it that would cause them to honor it again? I believe you would have get some kind of success from your running game which enhances those play action fakes.  It's not just the play action fakes themselves.  I don't really think you need any type of data during a game to tell you that if the defense is committing 8 men or more in the box you've got a better chance of completing passes on the defense.  What causes the defense to committ 8 to 9 men in the box?  A successful running game gets them to do that more often than not.  I think it creates more opportunities for you to face lighter numbers of defenders when you want to pass the ball.   I got to be honest here and say I can't go toe to toe with you on all that stat crunching, but there's just a few things I will just never buy about that data.   And if you're waiting for bodies(us old school thinkers) to die it's going to be a long, long, long time before that happens in the game of football.........
    • He could "beast", and still be a bad addition to the locker room in the long run. 
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