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Colts activate Robert Turbin and many other moves (Merge)

TKnight24

By TKnight24
in Colts Football

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Peterk2011 Walk On

Peterk2011

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, icf said:

If your plan is to not sign any significant FA's and you want to build via the draft -- it would help if you draft a whole lot better than the Colts did in 2017....not much to show for their 2nd/3rd/4th rd picks.

 

I disagree. Rounds don't matter after the draft is over. What matters is whether you find 2 to 3 starters (and 1 to 2 rotational players) or not, in whatever round you can.

 

Why 2 to 3 starters?

A chance for a first rounder to become a starter in the NFL is around 50-55%. It depends on the position (OL is better than RB for example), but altogether, it's around 50-55%. For a second rounder the number is 30 to 40%, and the change goes down with every round. These percentages represent starters - who play at least a few years in the league -, not pro bowlers or all pro-s.  If you do your math, the expected outcome from an average draft is 2 to 3 starters. Add 1 to 2 rotational guys, who make the roster in at least 2 years, and you have an average draft. Anything better than that is an above average draft.

 

If Hooker, Hairston and Walker will become starters for 3-5 years (hopefully more), it's already an average draft. Even if none of them will become a pro bowl level player (but we hope that they will of course). If Wilson puts himself together, and joins the above three, then it will become an above average draft already.

 

Ballard had 2 extra second round picks in 2018, so I expect one more starter out of this years class. That's four. Anything more will make it above average, anything less will make it below average.

 

Btw, Ballard never said his plan is to not sign any significant FA's. He said, he wants to build the core, the locker room first.

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DougDew Ring of Honor

DougDew

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, icf said:

If your plan is to not sign any significant FA's and you want to build via the draft -- it would help if you draft a whole lot better than the Colts did in 2017....not much to show for their 2nd/3rd/4th rd picks.

I think if we rebuild via the draft it would take a 50% retention rate.  Nobody hits on every pick, and some years are better than others.  It doesn't look like the 2017 draft is going to produce more than 2 players, Hooker and Hairston, but the 2018 looks like it could produce more, giving us the 50% hits over two years.  Just like the 2013 draft for the entire NFL was poor, you need good years to offset the bad ones, and over time it evens out.....hopefully.

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Scott Pennock Ring of Honor

Scott Pennock

Posted
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My guess is one or both of Muhammad and Basham end up on the PS. 

 

Besides, both of them are better suited in the Sheard role as an edge setter who harrases the QB, not the edge rusher role especially when all they have is a bullrush and effort in thier repertoire.

 

With the emergence of Turay and Phillips showing good burst and natural bend around the corner made them semi-expendable currently.

 

 

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WoolMagnet Active Roster

WoolMagnet

Posted
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4 minutes ago, John Waylon said:

 

I gotchu. 

Haha

the best part is you are accusing me of what YOU are actually doing right now.

so i guess my joke went over your head, not the other way.

sorry.  You obviously failed to see the humor in your post.  Others did.  It was funny.  Get over it dude.

 

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John Waylon Ring of Honor

John Waylon

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

Haha

the best part is you are accusing me of what YOU are actually doing right now.

so i guess my joke went over your head, not the other way.

sorry.  You obviously failed to see the humor in your post.  Others did.  It was funny.  Get over it dude.

 

 

Boy your sense of sarcasm is like a rotten post in a field. Useless to the fullest. 

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cbear Active Roster

cbear

Posted
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5 hours ago, Coffeedrinker said:

Well I thought he would be.  But I guess I was wrong.   I figured 5 practices in a row, albeit LP that he would get out there.

 

What did you think about Smith?  I thought he was excellent in pass protection.  I don't recall him giving up anything. 

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Coffeedrinker Practice Squad

Coffeedrinker

Posted
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Just now, cbear said:

 

What did you think about Smith?  I thought he was excellent in pass protection.  I don't recall him giving up anything. 

Smith did well.  The only reason I, personally, would not say excellent is because, a) he was helped a lot.  I need to go back and watch but I think the Colts even had Glowinski in there as a 3rd tackle on a few plays.  And he, Smith, did not have to face a really good and/or fast DE.  But he did what he needed to do and there were several plays when Luck had a lot of time in the pocket.

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