Who is the team to beat in our division?

[CR91]

Yes I know everyone will say the jags, but honestly I don't think their the most talented team and no I don't think its us either. Lets look at each team and their strengths and weaknesses

 

Jaguars

 

Jaguars are an old school type of team which is no surprise since their run by Tom Coughlin. They want to run the ball and play great defense especially when their passing game is subpar at best. While the Jags defense is still in tact, their offense especially at WR took a huge hit when they lost the allen brothers. Yes I know they didnt have Robinson and Hurns got hurt often, however this was a team that took the league by surprise, that won't happen again. Fournette is gonna get the Gurley treatment from year 2 which means Bortles will need to be more of a factor and I can't see that happening when his weapons are Moncrief, Lee, and Jenkins. 

 

Texans

 

Texans are really a wild factor when it comes to the division because you're really not sure what you're getting. If you believe in Watson from his brief 7 games where he was just going wild in the league, then their the team to beat, but if he regresses and is not completely healed from tearing his knee, then they might take a step back. Their defense is also getting back their two best players in Watt and Merclius. 

 

Titans

 

If I were to say what team worries me the most, its the titans. Their an underdog team that no one is talking about even though they won a playoff game last year. Mariota imo is a top 10 maybe just a couple spots outside QB and honestly he gets it done with subpar WRs. You now have Henry and Lewis which imo will be a heck of a tandem to add to Mariota's running ability which will cause problems. Not to mention the titans have always had a middle of the pack defense. I just think this team has a lot less questions marks then the Jags and Texans, maybe not as talented, but probably a more complete team.

[Shadow_Creek]

its all a toss up right now cause on paper the jags, titans, and Texans look good and of course were averaged at best. But in reality we could be the biggest threat this year once the season gets going

[Yoshinator]

IMO, the Texans scare me. I think Watson has the potential to be the best QB in the NFL this year if he has no effects from his ACL tear. He looks like he knows exactly what he is doing, and played like a top QB from day 1. The offense is great with him, and the defense is still very solid. Their only weakness is the O-Line, and I don't think we are good enough to take advantage of it.

Titans and Jags are also problems, but the Texans can eat us alive.

[Everyone]

11 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

IMO, the Texans scare me. I think Watson has the potential to be the best QB in the NFL this year if he has no effects from his ACL tear. He looks like he knows exactly what he is doing, and played like a top QB from day 1. The offense is great with him, and the defense is still very solid. Their only weakness is the O-Line, and I don't think we are good enough to take advantage of it.

Titans and Jags are also problems, but the Texans can eat us alive.

     I too think Watson has the potential to be a top flight QB. My only concern outside of the ACL is if he is still successful now that teams have studied his film?  Texans are still the team to beat imo with the Jags a very close 2nd, not worried about the Titans at all with Mariota at QB and I don't think their new coach will be that successful.

[IinD]

Totally depends on if Bortles, Marriota and Watson can play 16 good games.

 

If any/all of them struggle or miss time to injury, the division is wide open.

 

I wouldn't be drop dead shocked if we win the division simply because those QB's have never put together 16 good games in a season like Andrew has in the past.

[Fisticuffs111]

Yeah, I think the Titans GM is doing an amazing job there. Their drafts recently have been really solid, bringing in lots of talent. Only thing I'm skeptical on is the coaching hire but even I'll admit that he has high upside.

As for the team to beat, it's tough. I'd say both the Jags and the Titans honestly, as 1A and 1B. The Jags are stacked on defense and have a solid OL and RB stable, but the Titans are just all around talented. Texans are no slouch either and I'd say we're the team that has the most to prove.

[TKnight24]

Jaguars have the best roster in the AFC top to bottom so that’s clearly the team to beat 

 

Houston 2nd. Will JJ Watt ever play a full season again? Will Watson play the same after now a 2nd leg injury? 

 

And until Andrew Luck actually loses to the Tennessee Titans, I can’t take them seriously 

[csmopar]

40 minutes ago, CR91 said:

Yes I know everyone will say the jags, but honestly I don't think their the most talented team and no I don't think its us either. Lets look at each team and their strengths and weaknesses

 

Jaguars

 

Jaguars are an old school type of team which is no surprise since their run by Tom Coughlin. They want to run the ball and play great defense especially when their passing game is subpar at best. While the Jags defense is still in tact, their offense especially at WR took a huge hit when they lost the allen brothers. Yes I know they didnt have Robinson and Hurns got hurt often, however this was a team that took the league by surprise, that won't happen again. Fournette is gonna get the Gurley treatment from year 2 which means Bortles will need to be more of a factor and I can't see that happening when his weapons are Moncrief, Lee, and Jenkins. 

 

Texans

 

Texans are really a wild factor when it comes to the division because you're really not sure what you're getting. If you believe in Watson from his brief 7 games where he was just going wild in the league, then their the team to beat, but if he regresses and is not completely healed from tearing his knee, then they might take a step back. Their defense is also getting back their two best players in Watt and Merclius. 

 

Titans

 

If I were to say what team worries me the most, its the titans. Their an underdog team that no one is talking about even though they won a playoff game last year. Mariota imo is a top 10 maybe just a couple spots outside QB and honestly he gets it done with subpar WRs. You now have Henry and Lewis which imo will be a heck of a tandem to add to Mariota's running ability which will cause problems. Not to mention the titans have always had a middle of the pack defense. I just think this team has a lot less questions marks then the Jags and Texans, maybe not as talented, but probably a more complete team.

disregard, I was dumb and looked at the wrong season stats. My bad

[CR91]

Just now, csmopar said:

Well, honestly, I think its a complete Toss up.  

 

Reason being, last year we split games with each team, with a roster that was arguably worst than we have now . And that was with Jacoby, a QB who came in DURING the season, without a training camp at the helm. With Luck, a healthy team and with a coach that avoids dumb mistakes, we could have swept them last season. We were leading in all those games in the 4th too. So I don't think we're as far behind as the "experts" think despite both the Titans and Jags winning in the play-offs.

 

We didn't split with the titans or jags. We beat the 49ers, browns, and texans twice

[csmopar]

9 minutes ago, Everyone said:

     I too think Watson has the potential to be a top flight QB. My only concern outside of the ACL is if he is still successful now that teams have studied his film?  Texans are still the team to beat imo with the Jags a very close 2nd, not worried about the Titans at all with Mariota at QB and I don't think their new coach will be that successful.

my concern with Watson is he's a Vince Young, RG3, even a Ryan Wilson type QB where he relies on his ability to run the ball a lot to set up his passes. At least from what little tape there is of him. That's not saying he's a bad QB, just saying that those types of QBs historically flash a season or two and then once the league gets enough tape on them or injuries to their legs slow them down, their game diminishes.   This is also his second ACL injury. to the same knee...  

4 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

We didn't split with the titans or jags. We beat the 49ers, browns, and texans twice

oops disregard, i looked at the wrong season, my bad. i looked at 2016 by accident. Sorry about that. Old man syndrome kicking in

[Nesjan3]

IMO all the teams are fairly even with the Texans and Jags just a little better than the Colts and Titans.

 

We have the best QB so that could be an x factor for us, Jags have the worst QB, teams this year are going to shut down their run game and they will be forced to rely on Bortles which in turn should mean the Jags won't be as good.

 

The Texans are the most unknown because its hard to know what to expect from Watson. The Titans will be average as usual. Ill say if Luck plays 16 games we will win the division with 9-10 wins, but all 4 teams will be in it until the end.

[IinD]

16 minutes ago, csmopar said:

oops disregard, i looked at the wrong season, my bad. i looked at 2016 by accident. Sorry about that. Old man syndrome kicking in

All the garbage seasons blend in after a while.. Lol, don't feel bad.

[Archer]

It’s funny how we all have our own takes.  I’m not really worried at all about the Texans.  They’ve got a mobile 2nd year QB coming off an ACL.  Not only that, but he’s only started 7 games in his career.  Not to mention that these RPO-type QBs tend to have sophmore slumps as the league “solves” them.  Plus, he’s playing behind possibly the league’s worst OL.  And he’s only got one  good receiving option (albeit a great one).  I think Watson and the O will struggle mightily.  D should be good, but I wouldn’t expect the Watt or D of old...

[chad72]

Jaguars first. When was the last time we swept the Jaguars, even when Luck was healthy? 2014 was the last year. 

 

With Luck healthy, we lost to them in 2015, 2016 and got swept by them in 2017 without Luck. They are the most balanced team and we are not balanced enough to make Bortles matter enough, that is the sad part. On the contrary, he has played consistently well against us, more than other QBs in our division. 

 

These are not the Jaguars of 3 years ago, so the division goes through the Jaguars, IMO. 

 

Titans, actually might benefit from the change in coaching and might be a force to be reckoned with but until the "on paper" hype is proved on the field, they will be behind the Jaguars.

 

Texans, as many TDs as Watson threw, he threw plenty of INTs too, and that cost them games. Ultimately, if it is about the Ws and Ls, the Texans are still learning to win, IMO.

[Indyswagger]

the only real wildcard here is the Colts. To say that we are not at the top of the division is a bold statement. We have the only proven quarterback aside from a mediocre season from Mariota and our new defense and offense have yet to be seen in a meanngful game. I see the Colts as a team with a few holes that need filled but we still have one of the best qb's in the league. Its all a toss up at this point but I would say Colts, Jags,Tennessee and then Texans. imo

[Lawrence Owen]

Well, Personally, VRS the Colts,...Did the Titans or Texans drop 50 on us....ever? The Jags Have Beaten us 4 out of the last 5 times we played,...once they scored 50+ on us...another time their defense pitched a shutout against us.  The other two teams in our division cannot claim either of those facts. So yeah...against the Colts specifically, the Jags are our top concern.

 

The Texans are #2 IMO.  Their only real weakness is their o-line.  

 

Until the Titans can regularly beat us, They'll never have the Colts intimidated.  Respect, sure.  They are a talented team top to bottom.  But for some reason, Indy usually has their number.

[CR91]

40 minutes ago, chad72 said:

Jaguars first. When was the last time we swept the Jaguars, even when Luck was healthy? 2014 was the last year. 

 

With Luck healthy, we lost to them in 2015, 2016 and got swept by them in 2017 without Luck. They are the most balanced team and we are not balanced enough to make Bortles matter enough, that is the sad part. On the contrary, he has played consistently well against us, more than other QBs in our division. 

 

These are not the Jaguars of 3 years ago, so the division goes through the Jaguars, IMO. 

 

Titans, actually might benefit from the change in coaching and might be a force to be reckoned with but until the "on paper" hype is proved on the field, they will be behind the Jaguars.

 

Texans, as many TDs as Watson threw, he threw plenty of INTs too, and that cost them games. Ultimately, if it is about the Ws and Ls, the Texans are still learning to win, IMO.

 

Luck was not healthy in 2015 or 2016. He was basically playing with a bum shoulder and god knows what other injuries and the Jags are far from balance. They are a run first team with lackluster weapons on the outside. Fournette is gonna be bottled up with all the 9 man fronts hes gonna see

[coltsfeva]

 Well, since this Colts team has never lost to the Jags, Texans or

Titans, I’d say we have as good of a chance as the other three teams....just sayin...

[strt182]

um This is a simple one . THE COLTS duh !!!!

[2006Coltsbestever]

The Jags and their loudmouth CB should be favored, they won it last year and made the AFC Title Game. Having said that, the Texans and Colts both will be dangerous with their QB's back. If Watson and Luck both play all 16 games, those teams win at least 8 or 9 games IMO. I have the Jags pegged at 10 wins, they have a Great Defense but Bortles will lay a few eggs this season keeping them from having an outstanding record. The Titans are a team that I can't peg right now regarding Wins/Losses. To me they look like maybe an 8-8 team on paper? 

[MacDee1975]

3 hours ago, Archer said:

It’s funny how we all have our own takes.  I’m not really worried at all about the Texans.  They’ve got a mobile 2nd year QB coming off an ACL.  Not only that, but he’s only started 7 games in his career.  Not to mention that these RPO-type QBs tend to have sophmore slumps as the league “solves” them.  Plus, he’s playing behind possibly the league’s worst OL.  And he’s only got one  good receiving option (albeit a great one).  I think Watson and the O will struggle mightily.  D should be good, but I wouldn’t expect the Watt or D of old...

 

In those 7 games, he flew under the radar, played meaningless minutes against garbage defenses, and ran around and made plays on his own outside the structure of the offense.

 

What will happen when teams study his tendencies, gameplan for him, focus on him, and make him play in the pocket?

 

The bizarre love affair for the Houston Texans on this message board will continue for yet another year though, I see.  For some reason, people on here don't give 1/10 the love to their own team, as they do to some spectacularly mediocre and completely unaccomplished random franchise located 1000 miles to the south of theirs.  Every year Houston is irrationally talked up, every year they fail to deliver.

 

 

[TDewar1987]

If we go off of last season Jags are the team to beat in my opinion.

 

Not worried about Tennessee so much.

 

Houston, pending Watson, will be tough too. 

[csmopar]

4 hours ago, Archer said:

It’s funny how we all have our own takes.  I’m not really worried at all about the Texans.  They’ve got a mobile 2nd year QB coming off an ACL.  Not only that, but he’s only started 7 games in his career.  Not to mention that these RPO-type QBs tend to have sophmore slumps as the league “solves” them.  Plus, he’s playing behind possibly the league’s worst OL.  And he’s only got one  good receiving option (albeit a great one).  I think Watson and the O will struggle mightily.  D should be good, but I wouldn’t expect the Watt or D of old...

To make matters worse for Watson's longevity is he's torn an ACL, twice in the same knee. And 2 times in 3 years.

 

just going off what my knee specialist told me, who btw did Carson Palmers knee years ago, when I tore mine and then hyperextended it a second time, there's two tear repair options for an ACL and each can be done just once, a cadeavor as one option or a piece of your own patella tendon. If it needs surgery a third time, it involves a total knee replacement. That's not a good thing for a Pro QB.  

 

Not to mention after you tear your ACL once, the chances of it tearing a second time go up to nearly 70 percent, tear it a second and it goes up to 90 percent chance of a third tear. At least that's what I was told by my doctor. 

[Jules]

Based on last season/postseason, the Jaguars. Which just feels unnatural to say out loud lol.

[Smonroe]

The team to beat, in or out of our division, is the team we’re playing that week.  That’s the only factual statement.  

 

If you’re asking which team(s) has the most talent, we have to rank last. If you’re asking which team has the best QB when healthy, I’d say it’s the Colts.  And to me, since NFL talent isn’t hugely diverse when it comes to talent, that’s the biggest factor.  

[richard pallo]

I actually think if we could add a bona fide young all pro ER to our team that could help the defense with more sacks and pressure on the QB and also be a true defensive leader on the team then we would be the team to beat in the division.  If only we could find a way to trade for such a player.  If only there was a chance of one being potentially out there.  Hmmmm. 

[Franklin County]

I would say Jags are the team to beat. 

Titans and then Texans,

 

Colts are the biggest wildcard with a new coach and scheme change on both sides of the ball. I think the offense will be greatly improved. The defense is probably going to be what holds us back from being a major threat, IMO.

[ColtsBlueFL]

On 8/15/2018 at 6:28 PM, csmopar said:

To make matters worse for Watson's longevity is he's torn an ACL, twice in the same knee. And 2 times in 3 years.

 

That would place him in the 3-6% reinjury within 2 years group... along with Bradford.

 

Quote

 

just going off what my knee specialist told me, who btw did Carson Palmers knee years ago, when I tore mine and then hyperextended it a second time, there's two tear repair options for an ACL and each can be done just once, a cadeavor as one option or a piece of your own patella tendon. If it needs surgery a third time, it involves a total knee replacement. That's not a good thing for a Pro QB.  

 

3rd revisions are not unheard of.

 

Quote

Not to mention after you tear your ACL once, the chances of it tearing a second time go up to nearly 70 percent,

 

 

3-6%

 

Quote

tear it a second and it goes up to 90 percent chance of a third tear. At least that's what I was told by my doctor. 

 

14%

 

Actually, the other (native) ACL has a higher (9-12%) chance of injury once one side has been injured/repaired (first time). I read the reports a while back (because of Bradford) was a tiny bit surprised by the results.

 

I would be more concerned with cartilage damage and arthritis long term for either of those QB’s.

 

EDIT: For clarification, these numbers are within 24 months.

[NewColtsFan]

9 minutes ago, richard pallo said:

I actually think if we could add a bona fide young all pro ER to our team that could help the defense with more sacks and pressure on the QB and also be a true defensive leader on the team then we would be the team to beat in the division.  If only we could find a way to trade for such a player.  If only there was a chance of one being potentially out there.  Hmmmm. 

 

The Colts are not one impact player away from being a very good team.

 

The Colts are a good number of very good players away.    That’s why Ballard has been collecting as many draft picks as he can in a small window.   Just trading for Mack or Donald doesn’t make us a playoff caliber team over night....    we’ve got work to do...

 

[Coltsman1788]

Until proven otherwise I have to go with the defending champ Jags.  That pass rush is just nasty.  Plus they actually beat Pittsburgh in a playoff game and gave New England all they wanted last year.  Two things I have yet to see these Luck era Colts achieve.  Jax is legit and is the squad that will have to be reckoned with for the Colts to get back on top of the AFC South hill.

[NorthernBlue]

My personal outlook on each team

 

Jags - Loaded on all positions of the defense. Have a decent Oline, good running game, but severely lacking at QB. They're the kind of team that needs to win games by playing ahead. Can't rely on Bortles to win em games.

 

Texans - Insanely top heavy. They're gonna rely a lot on Watson, Hopkins, Watt, Mercilus, etc. If their stars go down (like last season), they're in trouble. If they're healthy, they'll be in contention to win 10 + games. 

 

Titans - Mariota is good, but I honestly don't know how good. New OC and less old school offense might help him, but I don't know about Vrabel as HC. He coached the worst defense in football last season in HOU (and I get that they were missing Watt and Mercilus, but that shouldn't instill confidence. The D was still bad). Probably the most complete team in the south.

 

Colts - Best QB when healthy. O line is improved, and decent enough weapons for Luck and the offense to put up points. An unproven, yet ambitious coaching staff. Lets see if they got what it takes to take this team back to the top of the division. The defense? yeaaaaah lets not go there . We're not good yet. 

 

Gonna take a lot of Luck (figuratively and literally) for us to win this division if you look at things on paper. But like, no one wins anything on paper. I'll believe in the Colts till they're out of it.

[The Fish]

2 hours ago, Jules said:

Based on last season/postseason, the Jaguars. Which just feels unnatural to say out loud lol.

If you actually do say that out loud, you'll hear it and think "that can't be right" and change your prediction.

[AZColt11]

I think if Watson had come to the Texans 3-4 years ago, they would be the total package right now and the team to beat.  But that defense has taken some losses and Watt has been consistently dinged up.  I think we've likely seen his best days at this point.  The Titans are strong in some areas but can be exploited in others.  The Colts are a team building their roster young, but they still have Luck, and with Luck they have a chance.  IMHO he is still the best QB in this division and that accounts for a lot.  The Jags don't really have many weaknesses.  They have been drafting high for so long that it's finally starting to pay off for them.  They are weak at QB and now WR, but that's really about it.  If they can find  good QB in the offseason, they may win the Superbowl.  And that defense scares the heck outta me.  This is the type of team that is built to make a run in the post season IMHO.

[Dark Superman]

Apparently Jalen Ramsey.

[Four2itus]

Personally...I say we beat all of them....

[funktacious2]

I certainly don't disagree with your bullit points. But in the end we all kinda have to use the info and take a guess, and my gut tells me the Jags are still thr team to beat. Maybe their offense regresses, but who know. Either way you go, our division looks as if anyone could take it. Yes, even us. Because with Luck... all things are possible.

[Superman]

It's the Jags for now. But I think there's a general assumption that just because a team had a good year that they are definitely going to be better the next year, and that's not how it works. That said, they are a tough, physical, fast team, and they were able to beat people up and impose their will on both sides of the line of scrimmage. That's a critical foundation for a good football team (something the Colts haven't been able to do, basically ever, despite trying). Their problem, IMO, is some of their most dynamic players in the trenches are either past their prime, or had banner years all of a sudden. Hard to expect that to be duplicated.

 

The other problem, while their foundation is able to keep them in games, there are times when you need your QB to make plays down the stretch. They have to rely on Blake Bortles. Look at the AFCCG, he actually played a good game -- 64% completions, no turnovers, almost 9 yards/attempt... but in the 4th quarter, when they needed a play, they were 0/5 on 3rd down, and couldn't score outside of the FG on the second play of the quarter. Not entirely Bortles fault, but a better QB probably finds a way to generate some offense. Still, they were one ugly quarter away from going to the Super Bowl with one of the most limited QBs in the league, so, respect.

 

Texans have a lot of question marks. Their defense fell apart last year, mostly due to injury, but it's not an automatic that they'll be back to their old selves. Watt will probably be a monster again... On offense, they're relying on a second year QB who had a good month and a half and then tore his ACL, again. Watson also has to make some progress as a complete passer, and if he doesn't NFL defenses are going to beat him into submission. 

 

The Titans are a tease, and I don't know what to make of them. I'm not a huge Vrabel fan, and while LaFleur is highly touted, he has to prove himself (he's not automatically going to be the next Sean McVay). Mariota might have hit his ceiling.

 

I think the division is wide open. The Colts won't be very good on defense, but the offense has a real shot at being explosive with Luck back. I don't think any team is getting ready to pull away from the pack, as things stand now.

[LockeDown]

EAch team is good but have weaknesses.  

 

Jags are built for the playoffs with running and defense, but teams will play them differently during the year.  Forcing Bortles to win with his arm, the Jags will not win win as many games.  Still dangerous in the playoffs.

 

Watson is only dangerous until he gets hurt again running the ball, which is what he will do.  ALL running QBs have this fate until they quit running.  Watt will never be the same again. He is a celebrity now and his body can’t take the toll like when it was young. They don’t have Arian Foster who was their scariest player imo. 

 

Titans are generally a more complete team but imo, Marietta hasn’t been a strong enough leader and consistent enough down the stretch.  HE will have to turn the corner in order for this team to put it all together.

 

Andrew Luck is the protypical NFL QB.  Strong leader, great arm, accurate arm,  high football IQ, pass first run if he has to (hopefully).  He is the difference maker.  We are putting a custom  offence and a fast defense around him.  Both are young but in the making.  Ballard is focusing on locker room leadership, especially on defense,.  which will become the deciding factor in our team.  If they gel and become opportunistic like we hope, we should be there in the end with a shot.

 

 

[csmopar]

9 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

That would place him in the 3-6% reinjury within 2 years group... along with Bradford.

 

 

3rd revisions are not unheard of.

 

 

3-6%

 

 

14%

 

Actually, the other (native) ACL has a higher (9-12%) chance of injury once one side has been injured/repaired (first time). I read the reports a while back (because of Bradford) was a tiny bit surprised by the results.

 

I would be more concerned with cartilage damage and arthritis long term for either of those QB’s.

Regardless, his odds of doing it again go up drastically. I wish him the best but QBs with his style of play historically hasn't lasted long and thats without many of the injury concerns

[Matthew Gilbert]

If I were a Houston fan, I'm more concerned about Watson staying healthy than being figured out. I'm not saying guys don't get figured out but when you watch him play, I have a hard time seeing how you stop him at this juncture. He was just so elusive in the pocket and giving his guys time to get open. As a defensive coordinator how do you stop him?