DaveA1102

Stock Up, Stock Down - Kevin Bowen

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Really interesting write up from KB in relation to how training camp is changing the perspective on a number of players as we progress. 

 

Who's stock is rising, and who's is falling quicker than Vujnovich's foot on another lineman's ankle?  See below for link:

 

http://www.1070thefan.com/blogs/kevins-corner/colts-coverage/stock-stock-down-colts-training-camp?utm_content=buffer073b3&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

Great to see John Simon on the rise, while Austin Howard is plummeting.

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That is an interesting write up, thanks for posting.

 

I will say, I'm not surprised by Howard's decline.  I never thought he was good.

 

 

Like I tell my wife, things would go a lot smoother if people just listen to me to begin with. :)

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Nice read. 

I've been all in on Wilkins for a while and I really hope he gets more snaps against Baltimore. He kinda has to considering the injury situation, but still. Really glad Braden Smith is taking advantage of this chance at RT. Didn't think I'd wanna see him there considering what was said about his stint at RT in college, but he looked solid the other night, albeit against mostly camp bodies. It'll be  interesting to see how he does against better competition.

And man, for our defense's sake we really need Turay and Lewis to get healthy and show something. Unfortunately it doesn't seem like Basham's proving much, which sucks. Thankfully Simon's been doing well, but it'd be really nice if Ballard's DL picks can pan out.

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6 minutes ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

Nice read. 

I've been all in on Wilkins for a while and I really hope he gets more snaps against Baltimore. He kinda has to considering the injury situation, but still. Really glad Braden Smith is taking advantage of this chance at RT. Didn't think I'd wanna see him there considering what was said about his stint at RT in college, but he looked solid the other night, albeit against mostly camp bodies. It'll be  interesting to see how he does against better competition.

And man, for our defense's sake we really need Turay and Lewis to get healthy and show something. Unfortunately it doesn't seem like Basham's proving much, which sucks. Thankfully Simon's been doing well, but it'd be really nice if Ballard's DL picks can pan out.

 

Braden Smith is an interesting one as even Ballard specifically said they never even considered him as a RT until necessity has put them in that position.

 

You would hope that the quality of the central 3 players in our O-line mean that Andrew has space to step up into the pocket on quick throws and so the onus is less on the tackles and they can focus on just pushing rushers past the pocket.

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14 minutes ago, DaveA1102 said:

 

Braden Smith is an interesting one as even Ballard specifically said they never even considered him as a RT until necessity has put them in that position.

 

You would hope that the quality of the central 3 players in our O-line mean that Andrew has space to step up into the pocket on quick throws and so the onus is less on the tackles and they can focus on just pushing rushers past the pocket.

The question is, what if Braden Smith does well at RT?  Do they keep him there and try to find another guard next year or do they move Smith back to guard and try to find another RT?

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22 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

The question is, what if Braden Smith does well at RT?  Do they keep him there and try to find another guard next year or do they move Smith back to guard and try to find another RT?

He has the length and look of a tackle. If he does well over the 

course of the year then keep him there and find a replacement 

at guard.

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13 minutes ago, dodsworth said:

He has the length and look of a tackle. If he does well over the 

course of the year then keep him there and find a replacement 

at guard.

It's a tough one.  Conventional wisdom says guards are easier to find than tackles. 

 

I believe there is a shift in the NFL... for offenses to combat the speed rushers on the outside I think NFL offenses are shifting to a quick throw, running between the tackles philosophy which is going to make the guards a more premium position.

 

Just so everyone knows, I'm a lot more interested to hear other's opinions on the matter not to argue, just to hear the opinions.  I think it could be a very interesting discussion.

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19 minutes ago, dodsworth said:

He has the length and look of a tackle. If he does well over the 

course of the year then keep him there and find a replacement 

at guard.

Exactly. 

 

I'm surprised to hear that Ballard never even considered him there, and in his mind is getting a bit lucky with Smith's performance thus far.

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1 hour ago, Coffeedrinker said:

It's a tough one.  Conventional wisdom says guards are easier to find than tackles. 

 

I believe there is a shift in the NFL... for offenses to combat the speed rushers on the outside I think NFL offenses are shifting to a quick throw, running between the tackles philosophy which is going to make the guards a more premium position.

 

Just so everyone knows, I'm a lot more interested to hear other's opinions on the matter not to argue, just to hear the opinions.  I think it could be a very interesting discussion.

It would be an awesome problem to have 4 of the 5 O line positions

locked in if Smith pans out at RT. Then we just need Slauson, Good,

Haeg or maybe another team's last day cuts to solidify the last guard

spot.

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Smith looks and seems like a natural at RT.  If he continues to get better, I leave him there. 

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1 hour ago, dodsworth said:

It would be an awesome problem to have 4 of the 5 O line positions

locked in if Smith pans out at RT. Then we just need Slauson, Good,

Haeg or maybe another team's last day cuts to solidify the last guard

spot.

 

39 minutes ago, LockeDown said:

Smith looks and seems like a natural at RT.  If he continues to get better, I leave him there. 

If Smith has the "look" of a RT and "seems" like a natural RT (personally I don't see it but I know a lot of others have watched him more than I, so I'm not disagreeing with you per se, just saying I've seen something different in the little I have seen of him) then why didn't Auburn play him at tackle?  Or his HS in Olathe?

 

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Happy to hear about Smith, we will see against a good Ravens front on Monday.

 

Turay and Lewis, I hope they pick it up as the year goes on. We will badly need them at least on the depth front. 

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4 hours ago, dodsworth said:

He has the length and look of a tackle. If he does well over the 

course of the year then keep him there and find a replacement 

at guard.

 

He may have the look of a tackle.   But he does not have the length.   The arm length that is critical for a tackle.

 

Smith’s arms are 32 and a 1/4.    Those are guard arms.    Short arms for a tackle would be 33.    Odds are Smith’s arms will cause him some problems this year.   How much us unknown?

 

Odds are Ballard will revisit this next off-season....    hopefully the line is good enough this year.   But another fix may be necessary next year.

 

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52 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

 

If Smith has the "look" of a RT and "seems" like a natural RT (personally I don't see it but I know a lot of others have watched him more than I, so I'm not disagreeing with you per se, just saying I've seen something different in the little I have seen of him) then why didn't Auburn play him at tackle?  Or his HS in Olathe?

 

 

I’m not in the Smith is a tackle camp.  

 

32 and a 1/4 inch arms won’t work in the long run.    This feels like a short term fix (this year) but perhaps not a long term one.

 

But I believe Smith did play some tackle at Auburn.   Going into his senior year I saw one story that listed him at tackle.  I just haven’t found a breakdown if how many games at guard and how many at tackle.  

 

I’ll keep looking.

 

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14 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

He may have the look of a tackle.   But he does not have the length.   The arm length that us critical for a tackle.

 

Smith’s arms are 32 and a 1/4.    Those are guard arms.    Short arms for a tackle would be 33.    Odds are Smith’s arms will cause him some iyobkems this year.   How much us unknown?

 

Odds are Ballard will revisit this next off-season....    hopefully the line is good enough this year.   But another fix may be necessary next year.

 

I don't think I'm alone with this but what is a iyobkems and is it good or bad?

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4 minutes ago, Coffeedrinker said:

I don't think I'm alone with this but what is a iyobkems and is it good or bad?

Damn,  I hate auto-correct....

 

The word I was trying for was....  problems.

 

 

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Well if Smith can play T and Slauson excels. we can resign Slauson and focus on other needs in the draft. I'm gonna get heat for this, but I think we should go WR in the first to get Hilton some help. Nothing against Grant or Rogers, but their not gonna take attention away from Hilton

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6 minutes ago, CR91 said:

Well if Smith can play T and Slauson excels. we can resign Slauson and focus on other needs in the draft. I'm gonna get heat for this, but I think we should go WR in the first to get Hilton some help. Nothing against Grant or Rogers, but their not gonna take attention away from Hilton

Slauson is on the wrong side of 30.   I think he’s 31.   Guys like that can grow old very fast.

 

I’d hope for a good FA signing next March.

 

As for WR...   I doubt I’d ever use a 1 on a WR ever again.    Way, way too many failures and under achievers.

 

As for Hilton, the irony here is you want to spend a 1 to help him.   What round did we draft Hilton?   3rd.

 

You can find good WRs in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and so on.    Look at Minnesota’s two WRs.    Diggs is a 5,  and Theiken is an undrafted free agent.   You can find quality WRs after the first round.

 

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9 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Slauson is on the wrong side of 30.   I think he’s 31.   Guys like that can grow old very fast.

 

I’d hope for a good FA signing next March.

 

As for WR...   I doubt I’d ever use a 1 on a WR ever again.    Way, way too many failures and under achievers.

 

As for Hilton, the irony here is you want to spend a 1 to help him.   What round did we draft Hilton?   3rd.

 

You can find good WRs in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and so on.    Look at Minnesota’s two WRs.    Diggs is a 5,  and Theiken is an undrafted free agent.   You can find quality WRs after the first round.

 

 

Slauson is up there yes, but we could get a good 3 years from him so signing him to a two year extension would not be too bad. Yes you can find WRs in any round, but you can also miss. I get the whole Dorsett thing was a bust, but so were 90 percent of Grigs picks. 

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5 hours ago, Coffeedrinker said:

The question is, what if Braden Smith does well at RT?  Do they keep him there and try to find another guard next year or do they move Smith back to guard and try to find another RT?

 

I think it is a good position to be in because the don't have to force the pick in the 2019 draft.  They go BPA olineman and can move or leave Smith.

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5 minutes ago, CR91 said:

 

Slauson is up there yes, but we could get a good 3 years from him so signing him to a two year extension would not be too bad. Yes you can find WRs in any round, but you can also miss. I get the whole Dorsett thing was a bust, but so were 90 percent of Grigs picks. 

 

To the bolded - that will 100% not happen.  In fact I bet this will be Slauson's only season in Indy.

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1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

Damn,  I hate auto-correct....

 

The word I was trying for was....  problems.

 

 

If that word was corrected, then what exactly is an iyobkems? I can't

find anything on google.....

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1 hour ago, CR91 said:

 

Slauson is up there yes, but we could get a good 3 years from him so signing him to a two year extension would not be too bad. Yes you can find WRs in any round, but you can also miss. I get the whole Dorsett thing was a bust, but so were 90 percent of Grigs picks. 

 

Dorsett is not my reason on not drafting a wr in the first round.    Other than the famous WR class of 2014,  almost all WRs drafted in the first round in 12, 13, 15,16 and17, are at best average..   if not below average,  if not outright busts.   The hit/miss ratio is terrible in first round WRs.   I’ve been writing about this for nearly a year.    I’d never base any thought on the success or failure of one player.   I’m not even basing anything on Grigson.   My view is based on league-wide trends.   The value isn’t there for first round WRs.

 

As for Slauson..   I like him and happy we signed him..   but the odds of getting three quality years from him are not great.   It’s possible but not likely.    I’ll be happy if we get one.   It’s a LONG season.   Things often look different in December than they do in August....

 

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3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

He may have the look of a tackle.   But he does not have the length.   The arm length that is critical for a tackle.

 

Smith’s arms are 32 and a 1/4.    Those are guard arms.    Short arms for a tackle would be 33.    Odds are Smith’s arms will cause him some problems this year.   How much us unknown?

 

Odds are Ballard will revisit this next off-season....    hopefully the line is good enough this year.   But another fix may be necessary next year.

 

The whole "offensive tackle arm length thing" has been debunked for awhile now. Just google "ideal arm length for a NFL offensive tackle" and there are many articles and studies to back it up. Scouts do prefer their linemen to have long arms but it's not the end of the world. Hell, Joe Thomas was one of the best Left Tackles in the past decade and he had 32 inch arms.

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2 minutes ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

The whole "offensive tackle arm length thing" has been debunked for awhile now. Just google "ideal arm length for a NFL offensive tackle" and there are many articles and studies to back it up. Scouts do prefer their linemen to have long arms but it's not the end of the world. Hell, Joe Thomas was one of the best Left Tackles in the past decade and he had 32 inch arms.

 

I don’t know where you got this, but it’s 100 percent false.   Not only is it not debunked,  it’s more believed in by NFL front office types and analytics than ever before.

 

And I have Googled the issue.   And my view is the overwhelming prevailing  belief.

 

I’ll try to post some links later.

 

If you’d like to post some links showing otherwise,  go right ahead.

 

 

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40 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

Dorsett is not my reason on not drafting a wr in the first round.    Other than the famous WR class of 2014,  almost all WRs drafted in the first round in 12, 13, 15,16 and17, are at best average..   if not below average,  if not outright busts.   The hit/miss ratio is terrible in first round WRs.   I’ve been writing about this for nearly a year.    I’d never base any thought on the success or failure of one player.   I’m not even basing anything on Grigson.   My view is based on league-wide trends.   The value isn’t there for first round WRs.

I went back and looked at the drafts you mentioned and it's hard to argue your point. Besides the 2014 class there are a few guys in other classes mentioned that are better than average but the bust rate was extremely high. I think a lot of teams are reaching because of needs more than anything. I follow the draft process as much as anybody and have always been dumbfounded by some of the WR selections teams have made in the 1st round. 

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9 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I don’t know where you got this, but it’s 100 percent false.   Not only is it not debunked,  it’s more believed in by NFL front office types and analytics than ever before.

 

And I have Googled the issue.   And my view is the overwhelming prevailing  belief.

 

I’ll try to post some links later.

 

If you’d like to post some links showing otherwise,  go right ahead.

 

 

Joe Thomas alone killed that notion.

 

But here is the main link with charts.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/does-arm-length-affect-ot-play

 

To your point, there are many articles in your favor when you do google it. 

 

 

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24 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

I don’t know where you got this, but it’s 100 percent false.   Not only is it not debunked,  it’s more believed in by NFL front office types and analytics than ever before.

I believe in MLB analytics way more than NFL analytics. NFL analytics has a lot of catching up to do. NFL analytics told the Browns not to draft Carson Wentz LMAO!

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3 hours ago, jskinnz said:

 

To the bolded - that will 100% not happen.  In fact I bet this will be Slauson's only season in Indy.

 

I was referring to if Smith does become our RT and Slauson plays well

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41 minutes ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

Joe Thomas alone killed that notion.

 

But here is the main link with charts.

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/does-arm-length-affect-ot-play

 

To your point, there are many articles in your favor when you do google it. 

 

 

When there are 32 teams in the NFL, citing a player here or there changes nothing.

 

By the way,  there are no rules for me that I believe in 100 percent...   there are always exceptions to the rule.  As you noted, Joe Thomas is going into the Hall of Fame with 32 and 1/2 arms.

 

Great for Joe Thomas.   Great for any other player succeeding with short arms.   But there are still approx 26-28 other left tackles with much longer arm length.

 

There are a large number of desirable qualities in a Left Tackle.   Long arms are only one them.   

 

As for the PFF survey, I confess I couldn’t make heads or tails of it.   But the funny thing about it, is that it’s several years old and PFF will typically mention the length of a draft prospects arms.   So while they may have posted the study,  they don’t appear to accept  the conclusion.

 

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49 minutes ago, Matthew Gilbert said:

I believe in MLB analytics way more than NFL analytics. NFL analytics has a lot of catching up to do. NFL analytics told the Browns not to draft Carson Wentz LMAO!

Fair point.   Even analytics can be subject to some level and of interpretation.   And I believe that when you have 32 NFL teams you’re still going to get 32 different points of view.  

 

People see the same things differently. People interpret information differently, even analytical information.   

 

The analytics can be right but the humans can be wrong.   Personnel can be a hard unforgiving business...

 

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1 hour ago, CR91 said:

 

I was referring to if Smith does become our RT and Slauson plays well

 

Did not need further explanation.  I knew what you meant.

 

Slauson is a stop gap answer at guard.  At his age there is no chance of him signing a multi year deal after this year.  The chances of Ballard signing him to a one year deal in 2019 is very slim in my estimation.  They will address guard again in free agency or the draft or both in 2019.

 

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3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Fair point.   Even analytics can be subject to some level and of interpretation.   And I believe that when you have 32 NFL teams you’re still going to get 32 different points of view.  

 

People see the same things differently. People interpret information differently, even analytical information.   

 

The analytics can be right but the humans can be wrong.   Personnel can be a hard unforgiving business...

 

Clark has the longest arms of all and he is almost a complete bust.  You have to factor in that it’s not the end all be all.  The tape counts.

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11 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

Damn,  I hate auto-correct....

 

The word I was trying for was....  problems.

 

 

I’m just wondering why your phone autocorrects “problems” to “iyobkems”

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10 minutes ago, Luck 4 president said:

I’m just wondering why your phone autocorrects “problems” to “iyobkems”

It doesn’t...    I miss a few letters and it misses a few more.

 

Or.....

 

I just flat out badly misspelled this...   take your pick.       :thmup:

 

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1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

It doesn’t...    I miss a few letters and it misses a few more.

 

Or.....

 

I just flat out badly misspelled this...   take your pick.       :thmup:

 

 

Looks like you need longer arms IMO...

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Yeah...,   I need tackle arms not guard arms...

 

Unfortunately,  I’m cursed with arms more suitable for being the Watet Boy!!

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9 hours ago, LockeDown said:

Clark has the longest arms of all and he is almost a complete bust.  You have to factor in that it’s not the end all be all.  The tape counts.

NewColtsFan does not need me stepping in for him.  But come on, NCF is not saying long arms is the only thing needed to be a tackle.

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2 hours ago, Coffeedrinker said:

NewColtsFan does not need me stepping in for him.  But come on, NCF is not saying long arms is the only thing needed to be a tackle.

Very true.  Perhaps I’m stating the obvious because of my disappointment with Clark.  I touted his long arms all along as if he could lean on that but it takes so much more. 

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Just now, LockeDown said:

Very true.  Perhaps I’m stating the obvious because of my disappointment with Clark.  I touted his long arms all along as if he could lean on that but it takes so much more. 

Clark really is an enigma.  He does everything near perfect... he maintains an excellent base, moves really well, gets his hands and great position and he does it all very quickly and establishes position on the defender and then.... still cannot do anything to slow down the defender.

 

I think the one issue his once his hands touch a defender his feet stop moving.  I don't know, you watch him establish position on a defender and you think... my word that is perfect and then you watch the defender do whatever he wants and it just leaves you scratching your heading wondering how that just happened.

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