Is there a lesson to be learned with the pick of Quenton Nelson at #6?

[Superman]

14 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

My personal dream scenario was to sign Norwell, draft Nelson, then in the 2nd round we could of taken Leonard and Josh Jackson early. That would of made us stronger at G, and gave us a #2 corner to work on the outside alongside Wilson to strengthen the secondary. I don't know how Ballard negotiates, but I would of basically given Norwell a blank check, and asked him "what will it take to get you to sign here?" 

 

Talk about an embarrassment of riches at guard... That would have been a nice haul. I would still have preferred Chubb, but it's hard to argue with an All Pro at one guard spot and a generational prospect at the other guard spot. 

 

Leonard wasn't on my radar for the second round, I wanted Christian Kirk, but Josh Jackson would have been nice, too. It doesn't sound like Hairston is having a good camp, and I was thinking he might be in the mix for the #2 corner spot. I haven't heard much about Desir... 

[Dingus McGirt]

21 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

My personal dream scenario was to sign Norwell, draft Nelson, then in the 2nd round we could of taken Leonard and Josh Jackson early. That would of made us stronger at G, and gave us a #2 corner to work on the outside alongside Wilson to strengthen the secondary. I don't know how Ballard negotiates, but I would of basically given Norwell a blank check, and asked him "what will it take to get you to sign here?" 

LOL.  Would that blank check have been drawn on your personal account.  This is business and this isn't monopoly money some are so eager to toss around.  :^)

 

[crazycolt1]

3 hours ago, aaron11 said:

i would take the center or TE, i see no reason why kelly couldnt play guard

 

i like doyle but he doesnt scare anyone, defenses have even admitted that they let him get his yards while they focus on ty.  that was the Bengals ftr  

 

i would take the safety too, and start him with hooker.  geathers has not done nearly enough to lock down that spot 

Why would the Colts draft a center just to move Kelly to guard? Just draft a guard and leave Kelly at his best position?

So what that you say Doyle don't scare anyone? He can catch 5-10 yard passes all day and rack up first downs all that is needed.

Very seldom does a rookie safety break a starting lineup.

I am just having a hard time computing in my mind what you are saying.

[Yoshinator]

4 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Talk about an embarrassment of riches at guard... That would have been a nice haul. I would still have preferred Chubb, but it's hard to argue with an All Pro at one guard spot and a generational prospect at the other guard spot. 

 

Leonard wasn't on my radar for the second round, I wanted Christian Kirk, but Josh Jackson would have been nice, too. It doesn't sound like Hairston is having a good camp, and I was thinking he might be in the mix for the #2 corner spot. I haven't heard much about Desir... 

My best friend is from South Carolina, so he knew all about Darius Leonard and talked to me about him after the 1st round when we were discussing which LBers were still available. Josh Jackson I actually liked better than Denzel Ward for our specific fit and scheme here in Indy. I was genuinely shocked Ballard didn't take him. Wish I could ask him what he didn't like about him. Hairston has me a bit worried, but we'll see what happens. He may pick it up in preseason. 

 

Kirk I like a lot, but probably like Anthony Miller better tbh. There were a lot of big time names in the 2nd round still available. I hope we got the right guys.

[Yoshinator]

15 minutes ago, Dingus McGirt said:

LOL.  Would that blank check have been drawn on your personal account.  This is business and this isn't monopoly money some are so eager to toss around.  :^)

 

Of course. My real name is Jim Irsay, nice to meet you! Jared Cisneros is just my alias for the Colts forum!  

[crazycolt1]

Just now, Jared Cisneros said:

Of course, my real name is Jim Irsay, nice to meet you! Jared Cisneros is just my alias for the Colts forum!  

I knew that all along.

[Superman]

4 minutes ago, Dingus McGirt said:

LOL.  Would that blank check have been drawn on your personal account.  This is business and this isn't monopoly money some are so eager to toss around.  :^)

 

 

We always knew what the number would be. He was going to get between $13-14m/year. It came in at $13.3m, and the Jags did a very reasonable structure with guarantees in the first two years.

[shasta519]

4 hours ago, TKnight24 said:

You had me at yes until you said “with baggage” then you flipped me to no 

 

Nelson didn’t have baggage and I believe Chris Ballard is on record saying he will take baggage guys but not with early picks 

 

Now if the player doesn’t have baggage like one of those Clemson DL or Gary from Michigan then yes, pull the trigger on him. 

 

But I'm personally not expecting Colts to be in the top 15 for picks next draft unless it’s via trade up 

 

Gary would be considered a position of need because the Colts have no player like that. He would instantly be the best DL player on the team. No one on the Colts would even be considered if he was available at their pick.

 

But I don't think they will be drafting that high...even if this season is below average.

[shasta519]

4 hours ago, dgambill said:

Tea.....ok...I'm walking away lol.

 

I was going to make a teabaggage joke...but I knew someone beat me to it.

[ColtsGermany]

Considering that Vinny is pretty old, we should take a kicker in rd 1 next year. No matter what. 

[Yoshinator]

1 minute ago, ColtsGermany said:

Considering that Vinny is pretty old, we should take a kicker in rd 1 next year. No matter what. 

Does Sebastian Janikowski have a son old enough to enter the draft this year?  

[shasta519]

3 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

If we take a great RT at 14-20, I'd be fine with that. It'd improve our O-Line and we could move him to LT in a couple years. Any BPA player in the draft will always have use. Nelson proved that before the first preseason game.

 

A RT in the 14-20 range? I hope not. The Colts need impact players on defense or at WR before a RT...and I there are easier ways to get a RT than having to burn a mid-1st round pick. 

[Yoshinator]

2 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

A RT in the 14-20 range? I hope not. The Colts need impact players on defense or at WR before a RT...and I there are easier ways to get a RT than having to burn a mid-1st round pick. 

A great RT can also play LT down the line usually. It'd be a multi-purpose to complete the line if he was by far BPA. That was what the thread was about, taking BPA if it's available, and if you can get a somewhat special player, then go for it every time, as Nelson is teaching us.

[aaron11]

40 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

Why would the Colts draft a center just to move Kelly to guard? Just draft a guard and leave Kelly at his best position?

So what that you say Doyle don't scare anyone? He can catch 5-10 yard passes all day and rack up first downs all that is needed.

Very seldom does a rookie safety break a starting lineup.

I am just having a hard time computing in my mind what you are saying.

moving RK sounds like a stretch but that would give us two players of nelsons caliber plus kelly, that would be one hell of an oline.  kelly is listed at 6-4 313, i dont see why he couldn't play guard in that situation 

 

i stand by what i said about doyle, hes good but not great.  this was about hypothetically drafting a great player at those positions  

[shasta519]

52 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Talk about an embarrassment of riches at guard... That would have been a nice haul. I would still have preferred Chubb, but it's hard to argue with an All Pro at one guard spot and a generational prospect at the other guard spot. 

 

Leonard wasn't on my radar for the second round, I wanted Christian Kirk, but Josh Jackson would have been nice, too. It doesn't sound like Hairston is having a good camp, and I was thinking he might be in the mix for the #2 corner spot. I haven't heard much about Desir... 

 

I wanted Kirk as well. With so many 2nd round picks, they had the luxury of addressing the skill positions. Much like passing on Kamara last year, I think passing on Kirk will prove to be a mistake (for many teams). There are certain players who are tailor-made for today's NFL...and Kirk is one of them. 

 

Personally, I would have grabbed Kirk and Jackson at the top of the 2nd round without hesistation. Kirk is special...and I don't care if CBs are "less important" in this new scheme, I want a tall, athletic CB that takes the ball away from the other team...and that was Jackson.
 

I also would have loved to grab Guice with one of those late 2nd rounders as well. 

 

That's potentially a CB1, a WR1a and a RB1 in consecutive picks. But what's done is done. 

 

[Myles]

2 hours ago, Superman said:

 

That said, I think Ballard played with fire a little bit. First, while he got a really nice haul for trading back -- clearly won the trade with the Jets, and their guy isn't in camp yet, so double whammy -- I think it cost him a potentially game wrecking edge rusher, the kind of player that it's hard to find later in the draft and that practically never becomes available in free agency.

 

I still think he would have gotten more bang for his resources by signing Norwell or Pugh in free agency, and then taking Chubb at #3 or even coming back up to #4.

 

 

I think Nelson will be as much of a game changer as Chubb would have been.   Maybe more being that he will be protecting Luck.  

 

I agree, signing Norwell would have been nice, but it didn't happen.   Nelson was the best choice for this team.   Especially when we got a couple more players in the trade.

[richard pallo]

53 minutes ago, shastamasta said:

 

A RT in the 14-20 range? I hope not. The Colts need impact players on defense or at WR before a RT...and I there are easier ways to get a RT than having to burn a mid-1st round pick. 

I actually think we have our RT in Good.  They are even moving him to LT with the other injuries.  He must be improving.  The big if is injuries.  Was last year a fluke?  If it was he could be a real surprise.   Last year was his first year at the RT spot as we had him at G the year before.  And he won the job outright.  I'm hoping he does well at camp this year and hopefully avoid any further  injuries.  He's young and getting better.  He just might be the guy.  

[ClaytonColt]

I'm go if to wait and see what effect he has on the results of the team first before seeing what lessons we can learn. It's obviously the only thing that really matters.

[dgambill]

2 hours ago, Myles said:

I think Nelson will be as much of a game changer as Chubb would have been.   Maybe more being that he will be protecting Luck.  

 

I agree, signing Norwell would have been nice, but it didn't happen.   Nelson was the best choice for this team.   Especially when we got a couple more players in the trade.

Sorry for the duplicates.   

So what you are saying is you think Nelson will have as big an impact as Chubb....lol....just giving you a hard time lol!

[dgambill]

4 hours ago, Superman said:

Setting aside QBs, this draft class had three players that were clearly better than the rest: Nelson, Barkley and Chubb. Great prospects, great college production, no off the field issues, no significant injury issues, highly respected character... all three were high ceiling, high floor, almost no-doubter prospects, according to general consensus.

 

While there were other really good and intriguing prospects in this draft, there was a clear line of separation after the top three. So with one of those three on the board when we picked, like Ballard said, it was an easy choice to take Nelson, so you turn in the card and never look back, IMO.

 

That said, I think Ballard played with fire a little bit. First, while he got a really nice haul for trading back -- clearly won the trade with the Jets, and their guy isn't in camp yet, so double whammy -- I think it cost him a potentially game wrecking edge rusher, the kind of player that it's hard to find later in the draft and that practically never becomes available in free agency.

 

Second, Ballard said before the draft that he only expected two QBs to go in the top five, so unless he knew that the Browns were in love with Denzel Ward at #4 -- and maybe he did; he worked for John Dorsey and presumably stays in touch with him -- he ran the risk of all three top guys being off the board at #6. It's pretty obvious by Tampa's trade back from #7 that Nelson wasn't going last much longer.

 

I still think he would have gotten more bang for his resources by signing Norwell or Pugh in free agency, and then taking Chubb at #3 or even coming back up to #4.

 

But, specific to the scenario presented in this thread, as always, I think a team is better off taking the best, most talented players that fit their team, not using the draft to try to fill needs. I think draft theory calls for maximizing value, and taking a guard at #6 isn't maximizing value. That's not because guards aren't important, but because it would be more efficient to use a rare draft pick on a player that you can't add in a different way, and good guards hit free agency every year. But that's theory; there's no guarantee you get your man in free agency.

 

Presented with the exact same scenario -- picking at #6 with Chubb off the board, and a trade back unlikely to yield a pick where you either still get Nelson or get great value for the pick -- the lesson is draft the best players you can, don't reach for need. I think that's how you build a good roster, but it takes several years of good drafting and development. 

I agree. I think Ballard just was really cautious to give out that kind of money to an interior lineman when he was feeling pretty good about landing OL help in the second round at worst. I think Ballard was going to be happy with Barkley, Chubb, Nelson, or Smith honestly. I think he was looking to add a guard in the second no matter what because of the value that was there. I think he looked at the extra picks in this draft and the extra second next year that he could easily turn the two seconds into a late first or move up and target a specific top pick next year was worth possibly giving up Chubb for. Nobody will know if the move pays off for a few years but I definitely see his logic. I thought we were getting Chubb. I honestly thought that Denver was going to take Nelson in my heart. They have had such OL issues they might have been worse then ours plus they had Miller and Ray and Barrett I didn't see them loading up on pass rushers.  If we end up with Chubb then land Smith in the second people would be raving about winning the trade but I still think we did very well....and we still need to watch what Ballard does next year to see the final payoff....I think it will be worth it. I just hope Chubb doesn't end up in the HOF some day lol. 

[NannyMcafee]

*edit* 

 

message deleted 

[AZColt11]

I wanted Chubb first, but my 2nd choice was always Nelson.  Chubb was gone and so, for me, no-brainer.  Glad the Colts saw the same thing.  I'm still not certain that, when it's all said and done, Nelson won't be the better of the two.  I just felt like we needed some pass-rush more.  But we definitely need OL help as well, no doubt.  In fact, I won't complain if we take another OL high in the draft next year.

[southwest1]

11 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

 

Nelson had no baggage lol. I said if a player did in particular. Don't take it as me saying it towards Nelson.

No sweat JC. I knew that you knew, I knew, & everybody else knew that Nelson was a model citizen & a dominant player.

 

As the old adage goes, football is always won in the trenches meaning OL & DL. You control the line of scrimmage & stop the opposition dead in their tracks it's over. To quote Sun Tzu: "Every battle is won before it's ever fought." 

 

I knew exactly what you were driving at: Depth on both lines meaning everything. Just ask the Philadelphia Eagles. It's all about rotation & fresh legs baby. I get it. 

[southwest1]

12 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I'm so thrilled we got Nelson..Thank God we took Nelson. Roquan Smith hasn't even signed yet, lol!

I never thought in a million yrs INDY would get Nelson either Jared. I was elated man. Finally, we have a GM who gets it. A Grigson slam not a Polian one BTW. 

 

I'm still ticked off Big Blue [NY Giants] passed on QB Sam Darnold, but landing Nelson made me smile again. 

 

Always great to read a thread by you Jared. You know of what you speak. One of my favorite posters on the forum. Always mandatory reading. Not necessary to like this post. I just really respect what you say & your humor is second to none as well. 

[southwest1]

8 hours ago, Dingus McGirt said:

LOL.  Would that blank check have been drawn on your personal account.  This is business and this isn't monopoly money some are so eager to toss around.  :^)

 

I get dibs on the thimble DM. Touche. Yes, that is true. The NFL salary cap does tend to bring reality crashing down with a resounding thud doesn't it? It's fun to play with another owner's greenbacks though anyway. 

 

Well played though. Well played. 

[Yoshinator]

5 minutes ago, southwest1 said:

I get dibs on the thimble DM. Touche. Yes, that is true. The NFL salary cap does tend to bring reality crashing down with a resounding thud doesn't it? It's fun to play with another owner's greenbacks though anyway. 

 

Well played though. Well played. 

I get dibs on Jim Irsay and all his possessions and bodily functions (which means I can control his mouth and hands to say who I will sign for what and sign that check for what amount I want!)  

[southwest1]

5 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I get dibs on Jim Irsay and all his possessions and bodily functions (which means I can control his mouth and hands to say who I will sign for what and sign that check for what amount I want!)  

Just sell off a few of Jimmy's guitars & you'll be set for life Jared. I imagine whatever Prince Purple Rain guitar he has in his possession will have you on easy street in no time flat amigo.

 

I wonder if Jimmy has a 'quiet Beatle' George Harrison special too? Humming 'Here comes the sun' now...Okay, I'll stop now. 

 

Maybe Jimmy is accepting applications for adult adoptions & he can add you to his will man. You might get some new wheels down the road JC. It's rumored that Jimmy is an awesome Santa Claus in December dude. Just looking out for ya bro.