PFF: Analytics challenging the status quo

[stitches]

 

PFF is introducing a stat that's been around in other sports, but they've developed it for football - wins above replacement. Here are some highlights from what their models are spitting out:

-QBs unsurprisingly are MUCH more important than any other position on the field.

-Second most important position - WR

-RBs are NOT valuable and the ones that are valuable, are valuable because of their ability in the pass game, rather than in the run game. 

-If they had to order them by importance here's the order:

1. Passing the ball

2. Stopping the pass

3. Running the ball

4. Stopping the run

...and and there is a good margin between 2 and 3.

-Interestingly enough their analytics show that the secondary(CBs especially) are more important for winning games than the pass-rush. It's a bit counter-intuitive but the rationale goes this way - sacks and serious snap-changing pressures are rare, passes are not... when you get passed on you need to have someone good in coverage to limit the damage. Pass rush is still important and they both complement each other(coverage and pass-rush), but coverage(not just from CBs, but by the whole secondary and by the LBs) is more important. 

-Contrary to popular belief, what a QB does under pressure is MUCH LESS important than what he does when he's clean. 

-teams punt too much, should go for it more on 4th down. 

-draft - trading up is BAD, trading down and accumulating assets is GOOD. 

[ColtsBlueFL]

Somewhat on topic, this reminds me.  I have yet to read 2018 football preview and other analytical material from Sharp football analysis yet.. (Warren Sharp) -

 

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/

 

(The do less punts thing triggered my mind here)

 

[TKnight24]

“Teams punt too much, should go for it more on 4th down”

 

*Remove Chuck Pagano, insert Frank Reich*

 

[ColtsBlueFL]

Yeah, Colts going for it instead of punting-

 

 

 

What was that old saying? Every drive should end in a kick... of some sort. PAT, FG, or Punt. In the case above, it holds true.

 

[Luck 4 president]

Tom Brady with 8 wins above replacement? They look at players but don’t look at the coaching and scheme. It’s hard to believe the patriots would have gone 5-11 with a backup.

[Crunked]

Going for it on 4th down has been a known statistic for a while now, I remember first getting turned on to the stat from reading the mmqb articles a good while back, some coaches have started embracing the metric in certain instances, but no coach has fully played the averages.

[NannyMcafee]

23 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

Yeah, Colts going for it instead of punting-

 

 

 

What was that old saying? Every drive should end in a kick... of some sort. PAT, FG, or Punt. In the case above, it holds true.

 

 

You can summarize the entire Grigson/Pagano era in that one play. 

[ColtsBlueFL]

A few quick takeaways from the beginning of Sharp's analysis (excellent, full reasoning accompanying text snipped... buy the book!!)-

 

Sharp analysis (Warren Sharp) recommendations-

 

Pass on first down (and do so especially with a young
quarterback)

Don’t run the ball on 2nd-and-10 after a first down
incompletion

Target the middle of the field on pass plays more often

Target running backs in the passing game, especially on
early downs

Pass more from 2-WR sets (12 or 21 personnel) and target
TEs more

Don’t fear using receiving backs as rushers in the red
zone

Run frequently on 2nd-and-short, and use tempo when
doing so

What is gained by huddling? Make a habit of getting to
the line of scrimmage faster ( not necessarily in just hurry up mode, though )

Use cadence and pre-snap motion to gather free
information on a defense before you snap the ball

Stop playing prevent defense in one-score games

Practice return TDs and unless it will end the game,
encourage aggressiveness in return attempts

Create conflict using route concepts against defenders
not accustomed to handling situations

Use RPOs more to make the offense “right” and the
defense “wrong” on every play

Make plays look like one another, create disguises

Always have multiple backup plans

Devote more time to studying your own tendencies and
then break them in the second half

Always take something away from your opponent – both
offensively and defensively  (BB game plans to stifle the best weapon, O and D)

 

Avoid play caller fatigue-  (one I think hurt us last year leading so many games at and after half time, just to eventually lose)

     "Far too often we see a pattern in the NFL. Once the game
script wears out, offenses grow predictable. By the time the
second half rolls around, far too often teams are simply going
with plays they are accustomed to using in those situations.
The problem is, defenses know this. They know what the
offense likes to do. If the efficacy of such plays is slowing
down, play callers need to employ n creativity. Play callers
need to always see the defense as a puzzle to solve.
Opportunity is there every single play. Stay creative, stay
aggressive, and take advantage of that opportunity.

Improve decision making in times of crisis"