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Had Andrew Luck Lived up to Expectations?


tucky89

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2 hours ago, RockThatBlue said:

You can make a case for yes and no.

 

But he is a pretty damn good QB and we are very lucky (no pun intended lol) that we got him just 2 years after Peyton left. There are many teams in the NFL who would take him in a heartbeat. 

 

I don't know if that answers your question OP, but its the best answer I could come up with.

We got him not even two MONTHS after Peyton was cut...

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Luck has somehow exceeded ridiculously high expectations. Took 3 garbage rosters to the playoffs, including an AFC championship. Torched Seattle, the NFL's marquee defense at the time. Made both Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen look like capable NFL TE's. 

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12 hours ago, tucky89 said:

Has Luck lived up to the "Expectations"? Remember he was touted as being the " Next Elway" coming out of USC. He was the next " Big thing". 

 

Awful OL lines, unspectacular coaching, & injuries have all impacted his career to this point. It's not all on him. I wanna make that clear.

 

How do you judge and/or analyze Luck's career to this point?

 

 

First of all Luck went to Stanford not USC second of all he was living up to the hype just fine it was the poor decision making of this franchise is the reason he got hurt to begin with I believe once he has been back for a little while he will be the guy we had before injury. I am cautiously optimistic with Luck simply cause I expect him to be a little bit off his game for the first month or so of the season. The old regime did not give him everything he needed to win a super bowl that's why we haven't won another one already you need two major things to win a super bowl one is good coaching which everybody here knows we didn't have and the other is more than a few good players here and there you need good players across the board to win the super bowl or guys that are good enough to fill a role which under Ballard I believe this team will now get better every single day. As for Lucks career to this point even Peyton hadn't won a super bowl yet to this point in his career so the fact luck hasn't yet not worried.

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Its give or take. Lets face it, Andrew has done more with much less then Peyton ever did(he had three HOFers on offense and two on defense in their prime along with a stout oline for most of his tenure, don't argue please) and yet in just his third year in the league, he goes to the AFC championship game and imo if Grigson actually provided talent to help Luck going forward after the 2014 season instead of signing old vets that didn't amount to anything ala herrman cole andre johnson perhaps the last three years could have been avoided. Dont even get me started on the horrid drafts from 2013-2015. 2016 doesnt look that much better either outside of kelly and maybe haeg

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13 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

29 isn't that old. Peyton won his 1st SB when he was 29 going on 30 that March. I know what you are saying though, Peyton spoiled everyone rotten LOL

He was a month or so away from turning 31 in SB 41. Not to nitpick lol.

 

Unfortunately, the Colts are not better than the Jags & Texans. Debatable on the Titans. Even if Luck is a top five QB, it'll still be extremely difficult to win a SB.

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6 hours ago, tucky89 said:

He was a month or so away from turning 31 in SB 41. Not to nitpick lol.

 

Unfortunately, the Colts are not better than the Jags & Texans. Debatable on the Titans. Even if Luck is a top five QB, it'll still be extremely difficult to win a SB.

Yeah he was 30 going on 31 you are correct. I was off by a year. He turned 31 that March after winning the SB.

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I'm here as a Colts fan because of Andrew Luck.

 

I followed him since he was a senior in High School because Stanford recruited him.    I saw every game he played in college.

 

I've seen every game he's played with Indianapolis.

 

And I honestly don't think Luck has come close to living up to expectations.    And while I'm willing to give some of the blame to Andrew,  most of the blame goes elsewhere....

 

To Grigson,  for the poor roster he put around Luck.

 

To the OC's we've had,  who wanted "chunk plays" that mostly needed 7 step drops behind poor offensive lines.

 

To the offensively philosophy we've had which was dictated by the HC,  who believed in "chunk plays.

 

And to an amazing amount of injuries and players who just didn't pan out.

 

So.....     no,  Luck has not lived up to expectations.     I've said too many times over the last 6 years,   I don't think we've seen a full season of the Real Andrew Luck.    A game here and there,   but not a great season.    If he's healthy in this comeback,  I still think he's capable of a level of season-long performance we have yet to see.    He's not yet 30.    He's got a lot of time left.    And a reminder,  the Sainted Peyton Manning didn't get to,  and win a Super Bowl until his 9th (Ninth) season.     Luck is starting his 7th season this year.

 

Just saying....

 

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3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I'm here as a Colts fan because of Andrew Luck.

 

I followed him since he was a senior in High School because Stanford recruited him.    I saw every game he played in college.

 

I've seen every game he's played with Indianapolis.

 

And I honestly don't think Luck has come close to living up to expectations.    And while I'm willing to give some of the blame to Andrew,  most of the blame goes elsewhere....

 

To Grigson,  for the poor roster he put around Luck.

 

To the OC's we've had,  who wanted "chunk plays" that mostly needed 7 step drops behind poor offensive lines.

 

To the offensively philosophy we've had which was dictated by the HC,  who believed in "chunk plays.

 

And to an amazing amount of injuries and players who just didn't pan out.

 

So.....     no,  Luck has not lived up to expectations.     I've said too many times over the last 6 years,   I don't think we've seen a full season of the Real Andrew Luck.    A game here and there,   but not a great season.    If he's healthy in this comeback,  I still think he's capable of a level of season-long performance we have yet to see.    He's not yet 30.    He's got a lot of time left.    And a reminder,  the Sainted Peyton Manning didn't get to,  and win a Super Bowl until his 9th (Ninth) season.     Luck is starting his 7th season this year.

 

Just saying....

 

Yeah pretty spot on Post. Luck has really had only 1 Great season in his 5 played and that was the 2014 Season. Where he led us to the Title Game and threw for over 4700 Yards and 40 TD's. If he can get back to playing like that, we will win a SB eventually.  

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32 minutes ago, NannyMcafee said:

John Elway Career stats: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/ElwaJo00.htm

 

Andrew Luck Career stats: 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/L/LuckAn00.htm

 

what was so special about John elway again? 

You do realize that Elway played in an era where they didn't throw the ball as much, right? If you look at stats, someone like Mariota or Winston will produce more than him if they have a long career. Doesn't mean most of the QB's today will make or win a SB. Elway carried his team in his first 7 years (Luck's current timeframe), and was good enough to finish the job twice before he retired. Everyone is putting up big yards today at QB. Doesn't mean Luck will win a SB or even make one just because he's benfitted by the current rules. Everyone is, and the same team has dominated the AFC since Manning started QBing. 

 

Elway took advantage of his era and outplayed his conference, Luck hasn't done so. The stats are meaningless when comparing different eras, and you are smart enough to know this.

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9 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

You do realize that Elway played in an era where they didn't throw the ball as much, right? If you look at stats, someone like Mariota or Winston will produce more than him if they have a long career. Doesn't mean most of the QB's today will make or win a SB. Elway carried his team in his first 7 years (Luck's current timeframe), and was good enough to finish the job twice before he retired. Everyone is putting up big yards today at QB. Doesn't mean Luck will win a SB or even make one just because he's benfitted by the current rules. Everyone is, and the same team has dominated the AFC since Manning started QBing. 

 

Elway took advantage of his era and outplayed his conference, Luck hasn't done so. The stats are meaningless when comparing different eras, and you are smart enough to know this.

 

For sure. You can’t really compare players from different eras... I know this. I was just doing the comparison “best QB since elway”. So I looked up both their stats. 

 

I suppose i could go through and compare Andrews stats with every QB drafted since elway, but that would take some major dedication. And you would also have to consider the fact that Elways era didn’t end for quite some time. And then there were other eras that involved Peyton/Brady/Rogers. So many eras. Why even compare players? 

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1 minute ago, NannyMcafee said:

 

For sure. You can’t really compare players from different eras... I know this. I was just doing the comparison “best QB since elway”. So I looked up both their stats. 

 

I suppose i could go through through and compare Andrews stats with every QB drafted since elway, but that would take some major dedication. Lol 

Yeah, there was much more emphasis on the run back then, Elway carried that team early before Terrell Davis got drafted. Luck has to deal with Brady, but the rules are in his favor where he can win games for us, so hopefully Luck can beat him h2h before Brady retires. Andrews stats will be favorable to many QBs in the 90s, 00s, and 10s. After that is when the rules really affect the league toward the pass. However, other factors affect who wins SBs, and there's a reason there are a select group of dynastys with certain QBs winning the SB time after time, and stats aren't the sole reason. Clutchness is a big reason, limiting turnovers, managing the game properly, and something we don't have yet, a hugely talented team.

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Luck has done more than most QBs in this league, with far, far less.

 

The teams that we've fielded during the Luck era have been passable at best, and laughable at worst.

 

And yet he's never won less than 11 games in a season while healthy. He's made the playoffs every year when healthy. And he's 25-0 when his defense allows less than 19 points.

 

He's had astonishingly horrific coaching , the worst offensive lines in football and an incompetent GM that ran a lot of quality players out of the city, while bringing in older, past their prime talents.

 

Andrew has exceeded all expectations and anyone who doesn't realize that just blames him for the rest of the problems around him, which is totally unfair to him.

 

We have an Elite franchise QB we need to appreciate him and his greatness. 

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At this point, with the injury stuff/missed games and season I would have to give him an incomplete. When on the field and healthy, he was projecting as if he would live up to t he hype, and when his career is over if he can avoid more injury problems has the potential to live up to the hype. Its just my opinion all the injury stuff has delayed making that assessment.

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1 minute ago, Jared Cisneros said:

Yeah, there was much more emphasis on the run back then, Elway carried that team early before Terrell Davis got drafted. Luck has to deal with Brady, but the rules are in his favor where he can win games for us, so hopefully Luck can beat him h2h before Brady retires. Andrews stats will be favorable to many QBs in the 90s, 00s, and 10s. After that is when the rules really affect the league toward the pass. However, other factors affect who wins SBs, and there's a reason there are a select group of dynastys with certain QBs winning the SB time after time, and stats aren't the sole reason. Clutchness is a big reason, limiting turnovers, managing the game properly, and something we don't have yet, a hugely talented team.

 

Yeah how many coaching staffs have been great? I only know of a few staffs that put it all together consistently. Hopefully we have one of those this time around. It’s like magic when everyone is on the same page. 

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IMO he was living up to most expectations before he got injured... and the last year when he played injured was much better than anyone could possibly expect from a player who didn't practice during game weeks and was playing at a top 3 QB level WITH torn labrum in his shoulder. 

 

That's not to say he didn't have things he could improve with his decision-making or refinements he could do to his technical throwing skill... He definitely did... it just comes to show just how good he was and how much better he could be if he was given better protection and given better playcallers in the booth as well as having the direction from an offensive guru as his coach who would help him to iron out the small things that were limiting him as a player isolated from what the limitation the team around him was putting on him. 

 

I still think he can get there and be perennial MVP candidate if he could stay healthy and Reich manages to connect with him and iron out some of his inconsistencies into strengths. 

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If everyone wants to be completely black and white about this, Luck was meeting his high expectations through 2014 as he took a step forward every year and made the AFC Championship game. After that, everything fell apart at once. Luck got hurt, our poor drafting and FA signings caught up to us, Pagano got exposed as a coach more and more, and we hit a free fall. So yes, Luck lived up to expectations in his first 3 years. However, after that, it has been a train wreck and we are back to square one in year 2 of a rebuild where Luck is almost 29 years old and just recovering fully from a major injury. 

 

So Luck was on his way to exceeding expectations early. Has he exceeded the first 3 years of his career? Yes. However, his whole career to date has been underwhelming and for his hype, hasn't lived up to expectations through 7 years. 

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Different viewpoint on hype and I would love NCF to comment since he was there.

 

In 1983, was the media hype machine anything like it is now? I remember Elway being touted as a football/baseball guy who had the option of either sport. I believe we had one pre-game show and one post-game show. Most, if not all, pre-draft analysis was presented in a pre-draft magazine (that was always over priced). The highlights of the magazine were quotes from highly respected former players, coaches and GMs.

 

Now compare that hype to what Andrew Luck has had to navigate himself through since 2012. Pre-draft analysts hyped Andrew like he was boy wonder and the certain #1 pick. Then the media and fans started criticizing the Colts for sucking to get Luck. The pre-draft analysts consisted of people from life-long NFLers to people like un-NFLers Mel Kiper. Add to the fact that naysaying fans now had the internet to voice their opinions and pushed the hype even further from reality. Now we have say, 15 pre-game and 15 post-game shows filled with many players who have very little original thoughts and rely on the script to not look stupid. The script is very obvious with the selected good guys talking the positive and bad guys counterpointing with the negative. It feels like a middle school debate that is hard to watch. Add in the football-only network(s) analysts who have to talk football 24/7. These guys have a very tough job, yet have proven they will say anything about anybody. 

 

The internet world is a very tough place to meet expectations and I just don't see how we can compare players from two different eras in terms of hype.

 

Just another viewpoint to ponder. 

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5 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

If everyone wants to be completely black and white about this, Luck was meeting his high expectations through 2014 as he took a step forward every year and made the AFC Championship game. After that, everything fell apart at once. Luck got hurt, our poor drafting and FA signings caught up to us, Pagano got exposed as a coach more and more, and we hit a free fall. So yes, Luck lived up to expectations in his first 3 years. However, after that, it has been a train wreck and we are back to square one in year 2 of a rebuild where Luck is almost 29 years old and just recovering fully from a major injury. 

 

So Luck was on his way to exceeding expectations early. Has he exceeded the first 3 years of his career? Yes. However, his whole career to date has been underwhelming and for his hype, hasn't lived up to expectations through 7 years. 

So he was living up to the hype until multiple factors that were completely out of his control have derailed him from doing so. Makes perfect sense to lay that at his feet.  I would love to see how many QBs could go out there with the injury that he sustained to his throwing shoulder and put up the numbers this guy did in 16.  My guess is there would be very very few, if any, but yeah that sure is underwhelming to me.

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16 minutes ago, MR. Blueblood said:

So he was living up to the hype until multiple factors that were completely out of his control have derailed him from doing so. Makes perfect sense to lay that at his feet.  I would love to see how many QBs could go out there with the injury that he sustained to his throwing shoulder and put up the numbers this guy did in 16.  My guess is there would be very very few, if any, but yeah that sure is underwhelming to me.

You assume if Luck wasn't injured that we would of made a SB or won one by now. There's no guarantee what he would of done if he was healthy. You are talking fantasy, I'm talking reality. Which probably goes with your username. I doubt you are rich. So get whatever it is out of your butt when you talk to me and talk civilly. It doesn't matter that Luck was injured and he played with such courage. Some players get injured and have a tougher road than others. Everyone has a different story. You aren't getting brownie points from Luck by defending him that way, you are just exaggerating and making yourself look bad to anyone who will consider taking you seriously on this subject.

 

I presented my case, and it was a good one, and you did little to debate it in a decent way beside make assumptions and act like a tough guy.

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57 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

If everyone wants to be completely black and white about this, Luck was meeting his high expectations through 2014 as he took a step forward every year and made the AFC Championship game. After that, everything fell apart at once. Luck got hurt, our poor drafting and FA signings caught up to us, Pagano got exposed as a coach more and more, and we hit a free fall. So yes, Luck lived up to expectations in his first 3 years. However, after that, it has been a train wreck and we are back to square one in year 2 of a rebuild where Luck is almost 29 years old and just recovering fully from a major injury. 

 

So Luck was on his way to exceeding expectations early. Has he exceeded the first 3 years of his career? Yes. However, his whole career to date has been underwhelming and for his hype, hasn't lived up to expectations through 7 years. 

 

While this is also true, the Colts organization has a chance to turn it around and be a brilliant dynasty. If they don’t however succeed, this will be forever remembered as the team that ruined what they had in Andrew Luck. Peyton Manning era will be an afterthought. Here’s hoping Ballard knows what the heck he’s doing. 

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On 7/28/2018 at 2:46 AM, Jared Cisneros said:

John Elway made the SB in 86, 87, and 89. His career started in 83. So Elway has made 3 SB's at this point in Andrew Luck's career.

True but no player can be judged by the team's performance, look at Archie Manning and Marino for example. Luck suffers in part to believing he can do it all and that simply is not the case. His skills are top notch and if he continues to play and modify his on-field dynamics (dumping the ball and avoid hits) he should end up with great careers numbers.

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He actually far exceeded expectations his first three years, anyone who says otherwise are the people that constantly overrate their favorite team and have unrealistically high expectations. Those teams' rosters were hot garbage and Luck led them almost single-handedly to the playoffs each year and to the AFCCG. 

 

Then he hit the injury wall, which is just the unfortunate part of sports. It can happen to anyone, but it is in no way a reflection of him. Luck exceeded expectations, the rest of the Colts organization, starting from the top down are the ones that failed.

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I think we should distinguish between the Individual expectations of Luck and the Team expectations with Andrew as the Colts QB.

 

Andrew has definitely lived up to any individual expectations since he was drafted (unless you're expecting league and SB MVPs every season when guys like Brady and Rodgers are still dominating...).  He started off exceeding expectations from '12-'14, then injuries affected the last few seasons.

 

The Colts TEAM has not met the expectations of the Luck era.  It's almost worked backwards, starting off well going 11-5 in 2012-2014, then basically regressing back to square one.

 

Really the biggest knock on Luck not exceeding expectations is his playing style, which led to big unnecessary hits and injuries.  A healthy Andrew Luck would probably have kept this team progressing over the last few years, and we might be talking about Super Bowls instead of shoulder injuries.

 

:dunno:

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3 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

If everyone wants to be completely black and white about this, Luck was meeting his high expectations through 2014 as he took a step forward every year and made the AFC Championship game. After that, everything fell apart at once. Luck got hurt, our poor drafting and FA signings caught up to us, Pagano got exposed as a coach more and more, and we hit a free fall. So yes, Luck lived up to expectations in his first 3 years. However, after that, it has been a train wreck and we are back to square one in year 2 of a rebuild where Luck is almost 29 years old and just recovering fully from a major injury. 

 

So Luck was on his way to exceeding expectations early. Has he exceeded the first 3 years of his career? Yes. However, his whole career to date has been underwhelming and for his hype, hasn't lived up to expectations through 7 years. 

I can also make the argument that just one Championship with Manning in 14 years is severly underachieving given his hype and status. He didnt win until year 9, did you categorize his performance up until then as "not living up to expectations"? Just curious.

 

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And I can make the argument that Manning  went to 4 Super bowls, just not all with the Colts. 

This thing of only judging  a QB by only counting how many super bowls he won is asinine. 

The last time I checked, the team your leading has a lot to do with what you win or lose with. 

Manning gave us a lot of competitive years and I am hopeful Andrew can recover and do the same. 

 

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5 hours ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

I think we should distinguish between the Individual expectations of Luck and the Team expectations with Andrew as the Colts QB.

 

Andrew has definitely lived up to any individual expectations since he was drafted (unless you're expecting league and SB MVPs every season when guys like Brady and Rodgers are still dominating...).  He started off exceeding expectations from '12-'14, then injuries affected the last few seasons.

 

The Colts TEAM has not met the expectations of the Luck era.  It's almost worked backwards, starting off well going 11-5 in 2012-2014, then basically regressing back to square one.

 

Really the biggest knock on Luck not exceeding expectations is his playing style, which led to big unnecessary hits and injuries.  A healthy Andrew Luck would probably have kept this team progressing over the last few years, and we might be talking about Super Bowls instead of shoulder injuries.

 

:dunno:

Luck has suffered from his style of play, but in my opinion, the injuries really occurred due to the lack of support.  He has been hit regularly, but not injured while in the pocket. He has sustained 3 major injuries which have caused him to miss playing time 1) Against the Broncos; 2) concussion against the Titans; 3) Shoulder injury against the Titans.

 

1) The game against the Broncos was a close game leading into the 4th quarter. All season long, the coaches had expressed to Luck the importance of sliding, throwing the ball away, and avoiding hits. Luck took that approach much of the game, until the 4th quarter. It was a pass play, and due to poor scheming, (no one got open) Luck scrambled and lunged forward to gain a first down. He was hit by two players, causing broken/bruised ribs and internal bleeding. Luck knew that they didn't have a great rushing attack, poor O-line, and receivers that had difficulty getting open against press-man coverage, and most likely felt that if he didn't put his body on the line, they would have lost that game. He had to move away from the conservative approach and do whatever it took to win. His supporting cast was not good enough to pull out the win for him.

 

2) Luck dropped back, surveyed the field, and no one was open. He scrambled and dove head-first towards the end zone. He got to the 1-yard line and sustained a concussion on the play. Again, no one was open and the coaches did not scheme well to get anyone open. If Luck doesn't play the hero, we lose.

 

3) I'm not sure which play resulted in Luck's shoulder injury. I'm also not sure that they have disclosed which play it was.

 

We do know that Luck has been injured on passing plays in which he scrambled. I am hoping that with better players, better coaching, we will not have to rely o Luck to be a hero, and instead, just a really good quarterback.

 

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Depends who you ask and what you signify as the expectations.

 

In my eyes, Andrew Luck is just the talent he was advertised to be when the Colts selected him number one overall. You can absolutely build a franchise around him and he can definitely lead this team to multiple superbowls (although, let's get to one first haha).

 

But on the trajectory standpoint, it's hard not to say no. Thing, is, it's not his fault. After his third year, the crappy roster, horrible GM, and poor coaching finally caught up to him. It's not his fault, but it still doesn't change the fact that 3 years ago, we were thinking super bowl, and right now, we're just hoping he can get back to his old self for good. He's not at Peyton Manning, John Elway level.

 

But here's the thing. If your expectation for a QB is for him to be the next Manning, you're probably going to be disappointed, because it's pretty freaking hard to be as good as Peyton Manning. 

 

Right now in the NFL, the elite quarterbacks are (off the top of my head), Rodgers, Brees, Brady, and Wilson. Luck is absolutely part of that group if he's healthy. 

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8 hours ago, tucky89 said:

If he retired tomorrow, is he a hall of Famer?

Doubt it. I might be wrong, but he needs a few more elite seasons of production to secure a spot in the hall. 2014 and 2016 he was elite, and his 2013 and 2012 were pretty dang good too. But I wonder if that's enough when you also consider the injuries he's had. Availability is one of the most important abilities in pro Football. 

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13 hours ago, tucky89 said:

If he retired tomorrow, is he a hall of Famer?

No but Peyton wouldn't of been a HOFamer after 5 full seasons either. Look at Peyton's career from 1998-2002. Luck has only played 5 seasons = 2012-2016, he missed his 6th last season. Peyton did lead us to 13-3 in 1999 but he really didn't get great until 2003. Luck will be 29 in September then 30 next season. Peyton didn't win his 1st SB until he was 30 going on 31 like you stated.

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