CBS Sports has the Colts winning just 3-5 games this season

[IcyRhythms]

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2018-nfl-predictions-prisco-picks-every-game-for-every-team-plus-super-bowl-champion/

 

Why is there so much doubt? Our schedule isn't the most difficult we've had. If Luck is 100% and the new pieces are everything we hope they'll be, this is a 11-13 win team easily. They have the Jags and the Packers in the Superbowl. The person doing these predictions is treating the team as if Luck isn't playing again this season. These are very bold predictions IMO lol

[IndyD4U]

Although I think we will win more games than that, there are a lot of unknowns.

 

1) Our QB is returning after not playing in over a year

 

2) New coaching staff and we haven't the slightest idea of what they are going to do on either side of the ball.

 

3) Roster turnover and rookies

 

So many questions need answered 

[IcyRhythms]

1 minute ago, IndyD4U said:

Although I think we will win more games than that, there is a lot of unknowns.

 

1) Our QB is returning after not playing in over a year

 

2) New coaching staff and we haven't the slightest idea of what they are going to do on either side of the ball.

 

3) Roster turnover and rookies

 

So many questions need answered 

I understand. I went and looked and USA today's predictions, they have us winning only 1-2 games. Stating something to the affect of "even if Luck is 100% healthy and back to normal, the rest of the Colts haven't given us any reason to think they'll play at a high level"

[IndyD4U]

1 minute ago, IcyRhythms said:

I understand. I went and looked and USA today's predictions, they have us winning only 1-2 games. Stating something to the affect of "even if Luck is 100% healthy and back to normal, the rest of the Colts haven't given us any reason to think they'll play at a high level"

 

The national talking heads are usually clueless. IMO, A healthy AL gives us 8 wins at minimum

[ColtsGermany]

Why are so much people complaining about those bad predictions? It's ok.... Let the media predict the colts only win 3 games,Blake Bortles throws for 60+ touchdowns and Brady catches his own 80yd td pass in sb to win the game... Only predictions. And the more people have us underrated, the bigger will be the surprise IF we do a lot better. If not... No surprise. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

Nate Davis must've got fired from USA Today and now has a job with CBS Sports. He now gave us a couple of more wins. Ok I am being sarcastic but this prediction is about as bad as that one. If Andrew plays all 16 games we wont be worse than 8-8. 

[IcyRhythms]

1 minute ago, ColtsGermany said:

Why are so much people complaining about those bad predictions? It's ok.... Let the media predict the colts only win 3 games,Blake Bortles throws for 60+ touchdowns and Brady catches his own 80yd td pass in sb to win the game... Only predictions. And the more people have us underrated, the bigger will be the surprise IF we do a lot better. If not... No surprise. 

I'd honestly be more surprised if we did poorly than did well. I know there are a lot of question marks. New coaching staff. Luck hasn't played in a game that actually matters in very long time. New guys on defense. Rookies on offense, and any number of other things. I just think there is a little too much doubt. 2 wins, USAToday? 3 from CBS Sports? I think we're a little better than that, even with the question marks. You're right, though. We should just let them talk.

[2006Coltsbestever]

8 minutes ago, IcyRhythms said:

I'd honestly be more surprised if we did poorly than did well. I know there are a lot of question marks. New coaching staff. Luck hasn't played in a game that actually matters in very long time. New guys on defense. Rookies on offense, and any number of other things. I just think there is a little too much doubt. 2 wins, USAToday? 3 from CBS Sports? I think we're a little better than that, even with the question marks. You're right, though. We should just let them talk.

I agree. I think at worse we go 8-8 if Luck plays all 16. I have us 9-7 as of now. Now if Luck plays only 4 or 5 games gets injured than I can see something like 5-11 but even with Brissett playing 75% of the season we can 5. We won 4 last year with a Roster that was worse. 

[Dark Superman]

Does CBS Sports think know that Superman is returning as our QB? Those *s probably think Scott Tolzien is our starting QB.

[jskinnz]

47 minutes ago, IcyRhythms said:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2018-nfl-predictions-prisco-picks-every-game-for-every-team-plus-super-bowl-champion/

 

Why is there so much doubt? Our schedule isn't the most difficult we've had. If Luck is 100% and the new pieces are everything we hope they'll be, this is a 11-13 win team easily. They have the Jags and the Packers in the Superbowl. The person doing these predictions is treating the team as if Luck isn't playing again this season. These are very bold predictions IMO lol

 

Do you really not understand why there is skepticism around the Colts?

 

To your points...

     1) The ease of schedule is based around LAST YEAR's results and doesn't matter this year.   Also the rest of the division essentially has the same "easy" schedule?

 

    2) "If Luck is 100% and the new pieces are everything we hope they'll be" -aren't there a bunch of question marks there?  And doesn't every team hope their new pieces will be what they hoped for?  The hit rate on that is about 50%.

    3)  Even the biggest homer out there doesn't believe this Indy team is capable of 13 wins.

 

Lastly - who cares?  It gets settled on the field so it really matters not.

[IcyRhythms]

5 minutes ago, jskinnz said:

 

Do you really not understand why there is skepticism around the Colts?

 

To your points...

     1) The ease of schedule is based around LAST YEAR's results and doesn't matter this year.   Also the rest of the division essentially has the same "easy" schedule?

 

    2) "If Luck is 100% and the new pieces are everything we hope they'll be" -aren't there a bunch of question marks there?  And doesn't every team hope their new pieces will be what they hoped for?  The hit rate on that is about 50%.

    3)  Even the biggest homer out there doesn't believe this Indy team is capable of 13 wins.

 

Lastly - who cares?  It gets settled on the field so it really matters not.

Well, I care, obviously. As a fan of this team, I wouldn't bother discussing it(and you replying to it)if some of us didn't care.

 

Forums and social media exist to discuss thoughts and opinions. I have an account here to do just that. Yeah. In the end, what happens on Sunday is all that matters. You're right about that. It's not going to keep myself and other quiet, though. I don't get the whole "who cares" thing to be honest. 

[jskinnz]

2 minutes ago, IcyRhythms said:

Well, I care, obviously. As a fan of this team, I wouldn't bother discussing it(and you replying to it)if some of us didn't care.

 

Forums and social media exist to discuss thoughts and opinions. I have an account here to do just that. Yeah. In the end, what happens on Sunday is all that matters. You're right about that. It's not going to keep myself and other quiet, though. I don't get the whole "who cares" thing to be honest. 

 

Well it is not challenging to figure out.

 

But just so you are aware - it means why get worked up over what some writer predicted when it gets settled on the field.  In other words, who cares what he says.  It means nothing.

 

And the points he makes as to why the poor predicted record for the Colts are completely reasonable.

[IcyRhythms]

1 minute ago, jskinnz said:

 

Well it is not challenging to figure out.

 

But just so you are aware - it means why get worked up over what some writer predicted when it gets settled on the field.  In other words, who cares what he says.  It means nothing.

 

And the points he makes as to why the poor predicted record for the Colts are completely reasonable.

Idk if getting "worked up" is really what I'd call it. I'm just sharing the information. I'm just looking for discussion with myself and others on some of these opinions/predictions.

 

To say that none of you have never provided thoughts and opinions on the thoughts and opinions of others even just once on this forum would be a lie. Someone could go into every one of those threads and say "who cares" but it doesn't make sense because they bothered to click and reply regardless. The person saying "who cares" does in fact  care, obviously.

 

I feel what you're saying. I've just always questioned the "who cares' scenarios. Those who truly don't care don't bother acknowledging the topics at all.

[MacDee1975]

Who cares?  It's not like what anyone predicts will impact what actually happens on the field.

 

Colts are gonna be what they're gonna be, regardless if anyone predicts them to win 3 games or 13.

[IcyRhythms]

5 minutes ago, MacDee1975 said:

Who cares?  It's not like what anyone predicts will impact what actually happens on the field.

 

Colts are gonna be what they're gonna be, regardless if anyone predicts them to win 3 games or 13.

I mean, yeah. Totally. Who cares about anything anyone says, like...ever in the history of...well, everything. We should never comment or express thoughts on the thoughts of others ever again. 

 

 

[Chrisaaron1023]

23 minutes ago, MacDee1975 said:

Who cares?  It's not like what anyone predicts will impact what actually happens on the field.

Lol shall we start going through the list of folks who go care ..

[Myles]

2 hours ago, IcyRhythms said:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2018-nfl-predictions-prisco-picks-every-game-for-every-team-plus-super-bowl-champion/

 

Why is there so much doubt? Our schedule isn't the most difficult we've had. If Luck is 100% and the new pieces are everything we hope they'll be, this is a 11-13 win team easily. They have the Jags and the Packers in the Superbowl. The person doing these predictions is treating the team as if Luck isn't playing again this season. These are very bold predictions IMO lol

I think predicting a 13 win season "easily" is as bad as predicting a 5 win season.   After all, this is a prediction.   If he thinks Luck won't be able to play more than 2-4 games this season, 5 wins may be right on the nose.  

[MacDee1975]

1 hour ago, IcyRhythms said:

I mean, yeah. Totally. Who cares about anything anyone says, like...ever in the history of...well, everything. We should never comment or express thoughts on the thoughts of others ever again. 

 

 

 

Nice stretch.  You obviously have a stranglehold on the point I was making.

[The Fish]

5 wins is probably low, but again, I'm not really sure what this team is right now and I understand why others are putting the other teams in the division ahead of the Colts. 

 

Basically remove win total predictions and ask yourself if around January 1st, if the season was a 6,7 win type of year would you really be shocked? I wouldn't be. Lot's of unknowns with this squad right now. There's no reason for wild optimism, at least yet, but if Luck is around this notion that this is the worst team in football (or close to it) seems extreme too. 

[Flash7]

Luck has missed 26 or more games over the last three seasons. There is no guarantee he will play all of the games this season and moving forward. His style of play leads him to be in harms way (why we love him, but also why he gets hurt).

 

If you were to look at the Colts from an outsider's perspective (not as a Colts fan) basically the team would be Luck, TY and garbage.

 

We can say so and so has potential, as can any team with many of their players. The NFL is littered with potential. Aside from Luck and TY, we have no one who scares the opposition.

 

It's easy to see why the media thinks so lowly of the Colts. We sorely lack play makers. Luck makes all of the difference. 

[jblastick]

I'm fairly certain Prisco is based in Jacksonville and you can see his Jags bias in his tweets.  That being said, the Jags do look good (aside from Bortles) and should be considered a heavy favorite however when I see predictions for the Colts winning 2, 3 or 5 games, I feel that the "predictor" is a bit lazy.  Not a huge fan of national media because not many of them provide any kind of depth to their reporting. 

[NewEra]

RoflsaurusRex

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, MacDee1975 said:

Who cares?  It's not like what anyone predicts will impact what actually happens on the field.

 

Colts are gonna be what they're gonna be, regardless if anyone predicts them to win 3 games or 13.

I concur ....Fist bump!

[Valpo2004]

Realistically I'm expecting 8-8.  5 wins is too low, but I don't see us winning the division or going to the playoffs.  

[pgt_rob]

Did they forget that Andrew Luck is back? It's not like Luck just had surgery a month ago. He's been healed for a while now...

[King Colt]

The lack of a running game for previous years and the rumors of running game by committee for 2018 does not excite anyone. New coach, new players, new staff and Luck returning gives no guarantee of wins or losses. I will be happy if they show the "plan" is working and they are showing a promise for the years to come. One this is certain, they guys will  have to be a lot more inspired with Luck in there giving them a solid cahnce to win.

[MikeCurtis]

After so many years of Manning,(And Luck's start) my expectations for the Colts was always VERY high

 

For some reason.........  my expectations are modest this year.

 

This team could have 4 wins, 6 wins, 8 wins, or...... 10

 

All are good....... this team ISNT beating the Patriots.... this year

 

Next year, maybe

 

We still have significant holes to fill, and people to learn to play together....... and a new coach.........

 

Patience is key......

 

 

[indyagent17]

4 hours ago, IndyD4U said:

Although I think we will win more games than that, there are a lot of unknowns.

 

1) Our QB is returning after not playing in over a year. He is worth at least 6 wins by himself

 

2) New coaching staff and we haven't the slightest idea of what they are going to do on either side of the ball. (But they do!) so whats the fear???

 

3) Roster turnover and rookies

 

So many questions need answered 

 

[Four2itus]

3 hours ago, jskinnz said:

 

Well it is not challenging to figure out.

 

But just so you are aware - it means why get worked up over what some writer predicted when it gets settled on the field.  In other words, who cares what he says.  It means nothing.

 

And the points he makes as to why the poor predicted record for the Colts are completely reasonable.

Because for some, it is more about the drama surrounding the game, then the game itself. 

[Superman]

1 hour ago, Flash7 said:

If you were to look at the Colts from an outsider's perspective (not as a Colts fan) basically the team would be Luck, TY and garbage.

 

So the Colts with Luck (at 75%, at best), TY and "garbage" won 8 games two years ago. The year before, without Luck for 9 games, they won 8 games.

 

Set everything else aside. It's hard to imagine a team with Luck simply upright -- let alone healthy -- winning fewer than 8 games.

 

Now project Luck being healthy. Assume the OL play will be decent (and by "decent," let's just say we don't start five different centers and we don't give up 56 sacks). Assume the coaching staff doesn't effectively give away two games with bad game management. Assume the team doesn't blow 9 second half leads.

 

These 2-5 win predictions for the Colts are indicative of poor analysis (or maybe an absence of analysis altogether). No one knows what will happen, obviously. Maybe the Colts are a complete dumpster fire. Maybe Frank Reich is a terrible coach. Maybe Luck's right arm goes flying into the stands on his first real throw. But being as objective as anyone can be, a projection of less than 6 wins makes no sense. 

[coltsfeva]

    Interestly enough, with the exception of the Chargers winning the AFC West, all of the Division winners match last year...., hmmm.

    What I find to be near-miraculous is that he not only knows who wins ever game but by how much. 

     The first three games he has us losing to the Bengals in Indy, the Redskins in Washington and the Eagles in Philly by 18 ( something tells me we won’t be an 18 point underdog by then.)

      

    

[Flash7]

18 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

So the Colts with Luck (at 75%, at best), TY and "garbage" won 8 games two years ago. The year before, without Luck for 9 games, they won 8 games.

 

Set everything else aside. It's hard to imagine a team with Luck simply upright -- let alone healthy -- winning fewer than 8 games.

 

Now project Luck being healthy. Assume the OL play will be decent (and by "decent," let's just say we don't start five different centers and we don't give up 56 sacks). Assume the coaching staff doesn't effectively give away two games with bad game management. Assume the team doesn't blow 9 second half leads.

 

These 2-5 win predictions for the Colts are indicative of poor analysis (or maybe an absence of analysis altogether). No one knows what will happen, obviously. Maybe the Colts are a complete dumpster fire. Maybe Frank Reich is a terrible coach. Maybe Luck's right arm goes flying into the stands on his first real throw. But being as objective as anyone can be, a projection of less than 6 wins makes no sense. 

I think we're not far apart here. I agree with your perspective.

 

I think when someone has an opinion we should try to understand where that opinion is coming from. As you noted, there is very little, to no thought put into this article, which I agree with. I wouldn't expect there to be. Most of these writers have to churn out opinion pieces for clicks.

 

My point is that from a national media perspective, the Colts do not look to have much talent at all. It's basically just Luck and T.Y.

 

Two years ago it was Luck, TY, Mathis, and V. Davis. We at least had someone on the defensive side of the ball that required attention. This year, Sheard, maybe? Who else? Who's even heard of Quincy Wilson, our supposed starting Corner? Who fears our secondary: Desir, Mathias Farley, TJ Green and Co.? (Haven't included the PUP guys here). Who in our LB corps is known by the national media? (No one). 

 

I think we are a better team than given credit for. I think we'll win more games as well. But when someone in the media says they think we'll win very few games, I get why.

[Superman]

57 minutes ago, Flash7 said:

I think we're not far apart here. I agree with your perspective.

 

I think when someone has an opinion we should try to understand where that opinion is coming from. As you noted, there is very little, to no thought put into this article, which I agree with. I wouldn't expect there to be. Most of these writers have to churn out opinion pieces for clicks.

 

My point is that from a national media perspective, the Colts do not look to have much talent at all. It's basically just Luck and T.Y.

 

Two years ago it was Luck, TY, Mathis, and V. Davis. We at least had someone on the defensive side of the ball that required attention. This year, Sheard, maybe? Who else? Who's even heard of Quincy Wilson, our supposed starting Corner? Who fears our secondary: Desir, Mathias Farley, TJ Green and Co.? (Haven't included the PUP guys here). Who in our LB corps is known by the national media? (No one). 

 

I think we are a better team than given credit for. I think we'll win more games as well. But when someone in the media says they think we'll win very few games, I get why.

 

I understand that there are a lot of unproven elements to the roster. But unproven and even unheard of doesn't equal bad. For instance, I personally think the secondary will be fine, if healthy, partly due to the scheme change. 

 

But bigger than that, the NFL is very definitively a QB-driven league. Teams with really good QBs don't win fewer than 6 games, pretty much ever. Rare exceptions in the last few years have been the Chargers (who were destroyed by multiple injuries), and maybe the Falcons a few years ago (also hit with a lot of injuries, notably to Julio Jones). Washington with Cousins basically bottomed out at 7-9, with an average coaching staff. The Raiders, with a bad coaching staff and Derek Carr playing through a serious injury, still win 6 games. The Lions win no fewer than 7 games a year. The Panthers went 6-10 two years ago, and that's primarily because Cam Newton played poorly.

 

I think Luck is better than Cousins, Carr, Stafford and Newton, and I don't think it's particularly close. In 2016, when he couldn't practice every day and was taking regular injections to manage pain, Luck had the second most efficient season of his career, led four game winning drives (should have been 5, or more, with better coaching against the Lions, Texans and Raiders, IMO), was 5th in TD passes, 8th in passing yardage, and 9th in passer rating. Again, this is with a bad shoulder, to say nothing of the bad OL play, poor offensive play calling, or the 25 dropped passes (7th in the league), all things that have a direct bearing on the effectiveness of QB play.

 

So even if Luck isn't back to 2014 form, even if the rest of the team has a ton of question marks, it's unreasonable, IMO, to project a team with a top 10 QB like Luck to win less than 6 games. You could argue that Luck by himself is worth 6 wins; Vegas has the over/under at 6.5. With a little bit of optimism about the coaching staff or any other element of the team, projecting 8-8 is easy to get to.

 

Like you said, we agree for the most part. These projections don't make sense. I'm just saying, even if you hate everything else about the team -- the roster, the coaching staff, the uniforms, whatever -- less than 6 wins doesn't make sense as long as Luck is on the field.

[IcyRhythms]

7 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I understand that there are a lot of unproven elements to the roster. But unproven and even unheard of doesn't equal bad. For instance, I personally think the secondary will be fine, if healthy, partly due to the scheme change. 

 

But bigger than that, the NFL is very definitively a QB-driven league. Teams with really good QBs don't win fewer than 6 games, pretty much ever. Rare exceptions in the last few years have been the Chargers (who were destroyed by multiple injuries), and maybe the Falcons a few years ago (also hit with a lot of injuries, notably to Julio Jones). Washington with Cousins basically bottomed out at 7-9, with an average coaching staff. The Raiders, with a bad coaching staff and Derek Carr playing through a serious injury, still win 6 games. The Lions win no fewer than 7 games a year. The Panthers went 6-10 two years ago, and that's primarily because Cam Newton played poorly.

 

I think Luck is better than Cousins, Carr, Stafford and Newton, and I don't think it's particularly close. In 2016, when he couldn't practice every day and was taking regular injections to manage pain, Luck had the second most efficient season of his career, led four game winning drives (should have been 5, or more, with better coaching against the Lions, Texans and Raiders, IMO), was 5th in TD passes, 8th in passing yardage, and 9th in passer rating. Again, this is with a bad shoulder, to say nothing of the bad OL play, poor offensive play calling, or the 25 dropped passes (7th in the league), all things that have a direct bearing on the effectiveness of QB play.

 

So even if Luck isn't back to 2014 form, even if the rest of the team has a ton of question marks, it's unreasonable, IMO, to project a team with a top 10 QB like Luck to win less than 6 games. You could argue that Luck by himself is worth 6 wins; Vegas has the over/under at 6.5. With a little bit of optimism about the coaching staff or any other element of the team, projecting 8-8 is easy to get to.

 

Like you said, we agree for the most part. These projections don't make sense. I'm just saying, even if you hate everything else about the team -- the roster, the coaching staff, the uniforms, whatever -- less than 6 wins doesn't make sense as long as Luck is on the field.

I'm not trying to say that the Colts have the talent of the Eagles or the Ravens from some years ago, but every now and then, a few teams surprise everyone and far exceed expectations. As you mentioned before, no one can truly know what this team will look like come November and December. I guess my point is, no one expected the Jags to become the class of this division and even fewer expected the Eagles to have double digit wins and go on to win the SB with the backup. Anything in this league is possible at any time.

[Nesjan3]

id have to say 13 wins is about as unrealistic as 3 wins. I think we are an average team with Luck at the helm, 7-10 wins. Lets not go pretending like our roster as a whole has proven to be anything.

[AZColt11]

Even though I disagree, I'm FINE with these low expectations.  Better to expect little and get a lot in return than the opposite.  Hopefully they will surprise people like 2012.

[Flash7]

57 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I understand that there are a lot of unproven elements to the roster. But unproven and even unheard of doesn't equal bad. For instance, I personally think the secondary will be fine, if healthy, partly due to the scheme change. 

 

But bigger than that, the NFL is very definitively a QB-driven league. Teams with really good QBs don't win fewer than 6 games, pretty much ever. Rare exceptions in the last few years have been the Chargers (who were destroyed by multiple injuries), and maybe the Falcons a few years ago (also hit with a lot of injuries, notably to Julio Jones). Washington with Cousins basically bottomed out at 7-9, with an average coaching staff. The Raiders, with a bad coaching staff and Derek Carr playing through a serious injury, still win 6 games. The Lions win no fewer than 7 games a year. The Panthers went 6-10 two years ago, and that's primarily because Cam Newton played poorly.

 

I think Luck is better than Cousins, Carr, Stafford and Newton, and I don't think it's particularly close. In 2016, when he couldn't practice every day and was taking regular injections to manage pain, Luck had the second most efficient season of his career, led four game winning drives (should have been 5, or more, with better coaching against the Lions, Texans and Raiders, IMO), was 5th in TD passes, 8th in passing yardage, and 9th in passer rating. Again, this is with a bad shoulder, to say nothing of the bad OL play, poor offensive play calling, or the 25 dropped passes (7th in the league), all things that have a direct bearing on the effectiveness of QB play.

 

So even if Luck isn't back to 2014 form, even if the rest of the team has a ton of question marks, it's unreasonable, IMO, to project a team with a top 10 QB like Luck to win less than 6 games. You could argue that Luck by himself is worth 6 wins; Vegas has the over/under at 6.5. With a little bit of optimism about the coaching staff or any other element of the team, projecting 8-8 is easy to get to.

 

Like you said, we agree for the most part. These projections don't make sense. I'm just saying, even if you hate everything else about the team -- the roster, the coaching staff, the uniforms, whatever -- less than 6 wins doesn't make sense as long as Luck is on the field.

Here is what I think will happen: Luck will lead the Colts to greater than 6 wins this season, and give the Colts a shot at making the playoffs, (a shot - not necessarily make it). He will change the narrative for these writers (basically forcing them to recognize how impactful he really is).

 

Next year's predictions will be vastly different from this year's.

[Myles]

Vegas having them at 6.5 is interesting.   They are usually pretty accurate.  So 5 wins isn't too far off.   Certainly not like 12 or 13 wins would be.  

My guess:

With Luck healthy and back to old form, the Colts could win 11 games.    If he struggles with form or injury, the Colts could win as few as 5 games.  

[Douzer]

In my view, the Colts are about as likely to go 3-13 as they are to go 13-3. I don't believe smart money would take either of those wagers. I'd say 6-10, 7-9 would be a reasonable early forecast on this team. Personally, I think they can exceed that with a good start to the season.

[IinD]

And people will lose their mind when we get the #3 instead of #2 again.. Lol.

 

If we get 3 wins Reich will definitely not have done a good job. Luck is good enough for that alone 1 on 11 against a D. Not really, but you get the point.

 

We shouldn't be that bad this season.