NFL doldrum time meanderings...

[ColtsBlueFL]

This time of the NFL season is often the hardest.  So in between work, holiday BBQ's, etc, I've been reading a couple books, and researching some specialized web sites.

 

I've been trying to figure out what our defense will consist of, and look like.  After looking through site after site of Marinelli/Cowboys articles, stats, etc.  I've pieced together an outline that might represent where we go on Defense.  I'm going to present basics here, and later 9if time) I'll get more detailed in coverages/schemes.

 

Player types-

The first thing I think of for what type of Defense I believe the Colts will try to implement is hustle. Yes, speed helps much here. Yes, quickness helps a lot as well.  But an instinctive, almost proactive read and burst along with a non stop motor are paramount.  I can almost see instructions to the rookies and young players-  "You're going to make mistakes now and then. Just make sure you're flying around the field at full tilt when you finally do."  Make any mistakes going 100 mph, not flat footed. Speed, quickness, instincts, and full on desire to get to the ball from anywhere and from any position on the field.

 

Less explosive pass plays! Colts were dead last in explosive pass plays allowed.  Yes, Saints had 3 more, and we tied Patriots at 64, but they had opposing team throw it at them a lot more than Colts did.  The Colts 12% EPA (explosive pass average) was 2% higher than the next worst 0f 10% (shared by 6 teams).  We will likely blitz much less, and let fewer plays get 'behind us' and burn us big.

 

 

Eberflus will likely employ both Cover 2 Man as well as Cover 2 Zone schemes when not in a sub package (Nickel, Dime, Big Nickel, etc...). In addition, Eberflus might do as Marinelli did at times to disguise looks.  Have CB's line up in Man, while LB's set up in Zone coverage. (As FYI, CB's force WR's to the outside and trail ride him in man, but funnel the WR to the inside in Zone.) Typically, the CB tries to hide his intentions, but if He is man, and LB's are going to play zone, he might 'tip his hand' to the QB hoping he assume the LB's will also be in man and thus might lead to a turnover. Where Marinelli adpated, he mixes his coverage, a CB can play man while another can play zone. 2 LB’s can play man while the 3rd plays zone. Pick your combo. This type defense can get extremely confusing to the opposing QB. The hard part is executing it. Especially for young players. The 'Old Tampa 2' was about execution over deception, these schemes are sometimes meant to be deceptive as well. I expect these type D schemes above to often be used in Red Zone and 2 minute situations.

 

I feel we will NOT be in a Cover 2 nearly as much as in our sub packages at other times, though. Yes, we will be a rush 4, drop back and cover with 7 type Defense, but with some man and Cover 1 or cover 3 schemes thrown in as well.  I feel our SS will be asked to be in the box at times and play run support too. Our front will be one gap (shoot the gap) get up the field, and linebackers will have gap responsibility as well.

 

 

Which brings me to another point,  takeaways will be as paramount as pass rush pressure, IMHO.   I think we will need 20 combined sacks from the DE's (even rotation wise), and a lot of pressures/hurries from DT's and DE's to make this D effective.

 

Off topic, I am reading an excellent analytics book, by Warren Sharp.  I'm not much into his betting/fantasy help, but the analysis is intriguing.

 

https://www.amazon.com/dp/1721539034

 

http://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/

 

I'm sure it will take a while to 'read and digest' all of this, just like it did for me with Pat  Kirwan's book. (Which I still go back and reference here and there)

 

https://www.amazon.com/Take-Your-Eye-Off-Ball-ebook/dp/B015M9SQC2

 

Chime in here what you are doing during the black hole period of the NFL between OTA's and Training Camp.

[Lucky Colts Fan]

@ColtsBlueFL  

 

19 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

I've been trying to figure out what our defense will consist of, and look like.

 

... it's like you read my mind! 

 

I'm trying not to be obsessed with what our defense is going to look like this year, but it's the big question mark in my mind, and will largely decide how our season unfolds.

 

Assuming a healthy Andrew Luck is playing behind an improved OLine, the offense is a known quantity - it has the potential to be a top-5 offense THIS year.  Andrew COULD be both Comeback Player of the year AND MVP in 2018.

 

Our Special Teams should be solid, like it always is. 

 

But the success of our TEAM this season is going to depend on the defense, which is going through a complete overhaul.  I think this season is going to remind us of our 2000s defense.  Hit-n-miss against the run, and a QB like Brady will be able to dink-n-dunk down the field all day.  But I think we'll have success against guys like Watson and Mariota. 

 

19 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

Off topic, I am reading an excellent analytics book, by Warren Sharp.

 

I read Warren Sapp at first and it made my brain hurt.  I was like "THIS guy...

wrote an ANALYTICS book?!?!?" 

 

19 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

Chime in here what you are doing during the black hole period of the NFL between OTA's and Training Camp.

 

I'm doing the same thing you are, gnawing on old football bones and creating threads in this forum while waiting...