Colts hire new analytics guy

[Steamboat_Shaun]

 

On a sidenote, how MASSIVE of a bullet did we dodge by "missing out" on Gruden?

[Fisticuffs111]

This seems like a really good hire. Ballard’s done a great job putting together this FO and coaching staff.

[Steamboat_Shaun]

8 minutes ago, Fisticuffs111 said:

This seems like a really good hire. Ballard’s done a great job putting together this FO and coaching staff.

 

Agreed.

[PrincetonTiger]

Nice Hire

  got to remember that Gruden is old school while Analytics is new school

 

 The anti-Analytics argument is not something new 

[LJpalmbeacher2]

22 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

On a sidenote, how MASSIVE of a bullet did we dodge by "missing out" on Gruden?

 

So far raiders are 0-0 with gruden. Why is he already a Bad Hire?

[Steamboat_Shaun]

1 minute ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

 

So far raiders are 0-0 with gruden. Why is he already a Bad Hire?

 

Because the way he's constructing that roster thus far is very Grigson-esque, & we've seen how that plays out.

[LJpalmbeacher2]

1 minute ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

Because the way he's constructing that roster thus far is very Grigson-esque, & we've seen how that plays out.

If that means the raiders will be 11-5 in each of his first 3 seasons with multiple playoff wins I think raider fans will take it. 

 

I haven't been following raiders off season moves but predict they will win the west if Carr stays healthy.

[PrincetonTiger]

3 minutes ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

If that means the raiders will be 11-5 in each of his first 3 seasons with multiple playoff wins I think raider fans will take it. 

 

I haven't been following raiders off season moves but predict they will win the west if Carr stays healthy.

I actually like what they have done

[Nesjan3]

1 hour ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

 

On a sidenote, how MASSIVE of a bullet did we dodge by "missing out" on Gruden?

Depends, if your saying we dodged a massive Bullet by not getting Gruden because he doesn't like analytics, then that's just perception. Gruden knows football that's for sure. Analytics is a rather new method being introduced to sports. Baseball has by far taken the most steps with it. Cleveland hired that Baseball guy who was supposedly one of the best analytic hires. hows that working out for them?

[krunk]

Writing that Gruden bad mouthed analytics is a bit misleading without giving context.   What he meant was there's too much analytics saturation to the point where it makes a simple game harder than it should be.  What he wants is to simplify things some and he later stated that he saw the value of analytics but there must be a proper balance.

[Smonroe]

Analytics are fine - as another data point.  Certainly not the end all for building a team.  There’s middle ground between Gruden and how the Browns screwed up their roster a few years ago.  

 

Knowledge is power, the Colts are just getting more.  

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, PrincetonTiger said:

Nice Hire

  got to remember that Gruden is old school while Analytics is new school

 

 The anti-Analytics argument is not something new 

 

The ship has sailed for the anti-analytics crowd.

 

Analytics is winning in every team sport, and it's winning big.   Mixing in some old school eye ball testing is always fine...   but if that is ALL you use, then you've put yourself at a competitive disadvantage.

 

Another great hire by Ballard.   Very forward looking.   Today is a good day for Colts Nation.

 

 

[PrincetonTiger]

1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

The ship has sailed for the anti-analytics crowd.

 

Analytics is winning in every team sport, and it's winning big.   Mixing in some old school eye ball testing is always fine...   but if that is ALL you use, then you've put yourself at a competitive disadvantage.

 

Another great hire by Ballard.   Very forward looking.   Today is a good day for Colts Nation.

 

 

You would get an argument from the Old School World

[NewColtsFan]

21 minutes ago, PrincetonTiger said:

You would get an argument from the Old School World

 

I know....   but they'd lose in a landslide...

 

Teams using analytics are winning championships in every major team sport...    there's not much if an argument fir the other side.

 

The nerds have won!  Long Live the Nerds!   

 

[PuntersArePeopleToo]

1 hour ago, Nesjan3 said:

Depends, if your saying we dodged a massive Bullet by not getting Gruden because he doesn't like analytics, then that's just perception. Gruden knows football that's for sure. Analytics is a rather new method being introduced to sports. Baseball has by far taken the most steps with it. Cleveland hired that Baseball guy who was supposedly one of the best analytic hires. hows that working out for them?

The fact is its Cleveland they had avoided his advice it seemed. Also though going from baseball to football the need changes so it take some time for his formula to get set up

[LJpalmbeacher2]

I heard someone say in baseball there won't be anymore manager types like Earl Weaver, Billy Martin, Tony Larussa etc...  Front offices are trending toward managers they can control and who will go with the analytics data.

[PrincetonTiger]

16 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I know....   but they'd lose in a landslide...

 

Teams using analytics are winning championships in every major team sport...    there's not much if an argument fir the other side.

 

The nerds have won!  Long Live the Nerds!   

 

They would argue that it is a fad and point to every analytics failure

[PrincetonTiger]

The problem with using analytics is that the definition differs for everyone 

[chad72]

46 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I know....   but they'd lose in a landslide...

 

Teams using analytics are winning championships in every major team sport...    there's not much if an argument fir the other side.

 

The nerds have won!  Long Live the Nerds!   

 

 

Analytics was a big part in the Eagles winning their championship. The things that the Jags did not do/do enough in the AFCCG were things the Eagles did in the SB and that happened to make a difference. Ultimately, if you see match ups you can exploit, you do that. However, if you are searching for those to exploit, analytics will help you, IMO.

 

This was an article I referenced a while ago, here it is again, highlighting the percentages that worked in the Eagles' favor that they repeatedly exploited:

 

https://www.patspulpit.com/2018/2/9/16994154/film-review-eagles-offense-won-super-bowl-with-heavy-dosage-of-runs-out-of-three-wide-receiver-sets

 

Some key words in the article above:

 

In all, the Eagles gained 5.4 yards per rush out of 11-personnel, with 70% of their rush attempts coming out of that grouping, and eight of their ten biggest plays from scrimmage came out of three wide receiver sets as well (six passes, two rush attempts).

 

For comparison, in the AFC Championship Game, the Jaguars used non-11 personnel on 67% of their running back rushing attempts, and gained only three yards per rush, but they gained 6.5 yards per rush on 23% of their attempts in 11-personnel.

 

The Jaguars, to their demise, allowed the Patriots to put heavier personnel groupings on the field to stop the run. The Eagles did not give the Patriots that same luxury.

 

 

[PrincetonTiger]

3 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Analytics was a big part in the Eagles winning their championship. Plus, if Tom Coughlin and his coaches had paid a tad more attention to analytics, they'd have won the AFCCG, IMO, by scoring more than the Pats, IMO. The things they did not do/do enough were things the Eagles did in the SB and that happened to make a difference.

 

This was an article I referenced a while ago, here it is again, highlighting the percentages that worked in the Eagles' favor that they repeatedly exploited:

 

https://www.patspulpit.com/2018/2/9/16994154/film-review-eagles-offense-won-super-bowl-with-heavy-dosage-of-runs-out-of-three-wide-receiver-sets

 

Some key words in the article above:

 

In all, the Eagles gained 5.4 yards per rush out of 11-personnel, with 70% of their rush attempts coming out of that grouping, and eight of their ten biggest plays from scrimmage came out of three wide receiver sets as well (six passes, two rush attempts).

 

For comparison, in the AFC Championship Game, the Jaguars used non-11 personnel on 67% of their running back rushing attempts, and gained only three yards per rush, but they gained 6.5 yards per rush on 23% of their attempts in 11-personnel.

 

The Jaguars, to their demise, allowed the Patriots to put heavier personnel groupings on the field to stop the run. The Eagles did not give the Patriots that same luxury.

 

 

I would consider that scouting not really true analytics 

[MTC]

Gruden never seemed like a realistic coaching option with Ballard at the helm. 

[PrincetonTiger]

Everyone needs to remember that Gruden had a front row seat for some bad Analytics Picks made by Al Davis

[NewColtsFan]

3 hours ago, PrincetonTiger said:

They would argue that it is a fad and point to every analytics failure

 

The "fad" has been going on for about 20-30 years now and is only increasing in popularity as more and more teams in more and more sports are using it successfully.

 

Fact is....   analytics are no longer a fad and haven't been for some time.

 

Anyone arguing against them is not only spitting into the wind....    it's the equivalent of 125 years ago a person in the horse business arguing that cars would be a fad...    

 

It's a growth industry... and it's growing in every sport, every year.   I still believe in scouting.  Most everyone does.    But analytics now has an important role to play...   anyone not using it is only hurting themselves.

 

[PrincetonTiger]

3 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

The "fad" has been going on for about 20-30 years now and is only increasing in popularity as more and more teams in more and more sports are using it successfully.

 

Fact is....   analytics are no longer a fad and haven't been for some time.

 

Any arguing against them is not only spitting into the wind....    it's the equivalent of 125 years ago a person in the horse business arguing that cars would be a fad...    

 

It's a growth industry... and it's growing in every sport, every year.   I still believe in scouting.  Most everyone does.    But analytics now has an important role to play...   anyone not using it is only hurting themselves.

 

What do you mean by analytics 

   Developing Game Plans and Scouting Reports as well as watching game film looking tells was part of my duties as a coach and player

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, PrincetonTiger said:

Everyone needs to remember that Gruden had a front row seat for some bad Analytics Picks made by Al Davis

Huh?

 

You think Al Davis used analytics?!?

 

Al Davis?!?   

 

Not!   A!    Chance!    Not with a gun to his head!    Al believed in his own eyes more than anything else.   30-50 years ago he was ahead of the curve.   Then everyone passed him.

 

One of the last dinosaurs.

 

 

[PrincetonTiger]

1 minute ago, NewColtsFan said:

Huh?

 

You think Al Davis used analytics?!?

 

Al Davis?!?   

 

Not!   A!    Chance!    Not with a gun to his head!    Al believed in his own eyes mire than anything else.   30-50 years ago he was ahead of the curve.   Then everyone passed him.

 

One of the last dinosaurs.

 

 

He drafted guys based on their workout numbers not on-the-field production

  which is a form of analytics 

[jskinnz]

13 minutes ago, PrincetonTiger said:

He drafted guys based on their workout numbers not on-the-field production

  which is a form of analytics 

 

I think you need to let this debate go.  This argument you are making is not sustainable.

 

 

[Superman]

17 minutes ago, PrincetonTiger said:

He drafted guys based on their workout numbers not on-the-field production

  which is a form of analytics 

 

I think we all know that's not what anyone means when the word "analytics" is used. 'Player X ran a great 40, that means he's fast,' isn't really analytics, it's just data. Analytics is the study of data to determine which information has the greatest and most direct correlation to success.

 

It's how we get from 'great 40 means he's fast' to 'great 10 yard split means he's quick in a short area,' which is far more valuable information for a trench player than 40 time.

 

And then the hardest part is applying that analysis to whatever field or area it relates to.

[PrincetonTiger]

Just now, jskinnz said:

 

I think you need to let this debate go.  This argument you are making is not sustainable.

 

 

I am far from arguing 

   I come from a scouting background 

[southwest1]

2 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

The ship has sailed for the anti-analytics crowd.

 

Analytics is winning in every team sport, and it's winning big.   Mixing in some old school eye ball testing is always fine...   but if that is ALL you use, then you've put yourself at a competitive disadvantage.

 

Another great hire by Ballard.   Very forward looking.   Today is a good day for Colts Nation.

 

 

I may not fully understand exactly how analytics works NCF, but even I know it works in baseball & the NBA so, why not apply to football to increase our odds of winning games? Sign me up buddy! 

[PrincetonTiger]

10 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think we all know that's not what anyone means when the word "analytics" is used. 'Player X ran a great 40, that means he's fast,' isn't really analytics, it's just data. Analytics is the study of data to determine which information has the greatest and most direction correlation to success. And then the hardest part is applying that analysis to whatever field it relates to.

 

That is why I said that it was a form of analytics and that is why analytics is difficult to quantify because it means different things to different people

 

     Any Coach to develop a game plan and/or use film uses a form of analytics    

         That was my job in college and during my coaching tenure( I charted the Offense on Friday night and developed a new tendency chart each week for the HC) 

 

[PrincetonTiger]

Friendly Reminder from TigerTown    

   I was providing the other side of the analytics argument and explaining Gruden’s reasoning 

[ColtJ82]

1 hour ago, PrincetonTiger said:

I would consider that scouting not really true analytics 

It is the analytics of scouting.....as there are analytics to any situational process in the game. "Analytics" is a buzzword at the moment. Always been around, just being used at all levels now. Very broad term.

[MacDee1975]

Yes.....baseball analytics guys provided us groundbreaking discoveries such as "on base percentage is important" back in the 2000s.  Managers had no clue that it was important to get on base the century and a half baseball existed prior to that.  Hopefully the dorks can bring those kind of sweeping reforms to the NFL.

[southwest1]

3 hours ago, krunk said:

Writing that Gruden bad mouthed analytics is a bit misleading without giving context.   What he meant was there's too much analytics saturation to the point where it makes a simple game harder than it should be.  What he wants is to simplify things some and he later stated that he saw the value of analytics but there must be a proper balance.

Very well said krunk. This is probably an oversimplification, but I view analytics merely as tendencies based on formations designed to exploit what your adversary doesn't have the personnel to stop. 

 

I get Gruden's rejection of an onslaught of data that takes athletes away from blocking, passing, tackling, & catching. Paralysis by thinking too much vs trusting what you see across from you as a player. 

 

I just think that Jon is like Jim Harbaugh. A coach who burns men out quickly which is why I liked Steamboat Shaun's remark about dodging a bullet not hiring Chucky as our new HC. I respect Gruden. I just think his intensity wears thin after 3 yrs or so that's all. 

[PrincetonTiger]

Just now, ColtJ82 said:

It is the analytics of scouting.....as there are analytics to any situational process in the game. "Analytics" is a buzzword at the moment. Always been around, just being used at all levels now. Very broad term.

Agreed

   Analytics can be used everywhere    

     I studied and used it to get my political Science Degree

 

   I see the on the field game planning the job of coaches

[PrincetonTiger]

As @ColtJ82  said analytics has been around for years just not as analytics    

 

   Analytics can be seen everywhere    

      Exit Polling in Politics    

      Standardized Testing in Education    

      Pilot Development in Television

   

[ColtJ82]

4 minutes ago, PrincetonTiger said:

As @ColtJ82  said analytics has been around for years just not as analytics    

 

   Analytics can be seen everywhere    

      Exit Polling in Politics    

      Standardized Testing in Education    

      Pilot Development in Television

   

 

So is the job of the "Analytics Guy" focused on player acquisition or is it more on-field compilation?

[PrincetonTiger]

Just now, ColtJ82 said:

 

So is the job of the "Analytics Guy" focused on player acquisition or is it more on-field compilation?

I see it on the player acquisition side

   A lot of “Analytics Guys” have had more of a business background 

[NewColtsFan]

1 hour ago, PrincetonTiger said:

He drafted guys based on their workout numbers not on-the-field production

  which is a form of analytics 

 

Its not analytics if it wasn't hard as analytics.    Al simply believed I speed above all else.

 

When DHB ran sub-4.3, Al was convinced.   It didn't matter that he had terrible hands.   It didn't matter that he didn't run great routes.   He just saw another Cliff Branch and took him.

 

That's not analytics.

 

Al was as far from analytics as possible.