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The big Nelson gamble


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4 hours ago, azcolt said:

Nelson may well be an all-pro olineman for the next decade, but unless Luck returns to elite status for the next decade Ballard will never live down his decision to pass on a qb in the first round. I can’t see this working out well for the Colts. How many hits will Luck be able to take?

You have to have a team or drafting another Quarterback doesn't do any good. Also Nelson outside of Barkley was the best player in this draft also the best player remaining o our draft board at the time so I admit if I was sitting in Ballards seat as GM on draft night then Nelson would have been my pick too.

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Yep it's pretty obvious they are all in on Luck.. for this season anyways. If he can't return to form during this season at some point, next year we will start looking at quarterbacks.  People seem to forget there is usually at least 2 quarterbacks in each draft that have potential, just because there was more than average this year doesn't mean Ballards "never going to live it down" haha

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4 hours ago, azcolt said:

Nelson may well be an all-pro olineman for the next decade, but unless Luck returns to elite status for the next decade Ballard will never live down his decision to pass on a qb in the first round. I can’t see this working out well for the Colts. How many hits will Luck be able to take?

Based on the draft it seems Ballard is very confident that Luck is coming back. As far as how many hits Luck can take, he took a lot more than any QB should have to for years before becoming injured. If he does get back to full health he may well be one of the toughest out there again. If he doesn't get back to full health Ballard has secured a high chance that we won't suck so bad at protecting whoever the QB is. With Nelson/Smith I see it as a positive with or without Luck going forward. Luck and Brissett both held the ball to long at times but when your coach and your offensive line suck.. bad things are bound to happen.

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4 hours ago, azcolt said:

Nelson may well be an all-pro olineman for the next decade, but unless Luck returns to elite status for the next decade Ballard will never live down his decision to pass on a qb in the first round. I can’t see this working out well for the Colts. How many hits will Luck be able to take?

Whatcha talking bout!

 

We got the Big Tens  all time yardage leader.

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4 hours ago, azcolt said:

Nelson may well be an all-pro olineman for the next decade, but unless Luck returns to elite status for the next decade Ballard will never live down his decision to pass on a qb in the first round. I can’t see this working out well for the Colts. How many hits will Luck be able to take?

Calm down bro. Plus you want to build the line first before you bring a new QB anyway. The way I see it is, Colts are not making the playoffs this season, so play it out see how everything goes build your team and IF it comes down that luck won't play anymore then think about a QB. but in the mean time my money is on luck playing in 2018

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5 hours ago, azcolt said:

Nelson may well be an all-pro olineman for the next decade, but unless Luck returns to elite status for the next decade Ballard will never live down his decision to pass on a qb in the first round. I can’t see this working out well for the Colts. How many hits will Luck be able to take?

 

You do know there will be QBs in other drafts, right?

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4 hours ago, shastamasta said:

 

Look at the franchises that have drafted a G in the top 10. It goes both ways.

 

But there was no way they were drafting a QB.

Pass up a top three player in the draft due to position? Sorry that’s moronic. He is not just a G, he was rated as the top guard in the past twenty years, generational talent.  Would you have spent a top 5 pick on Larry Allen? I would have. 

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5 minutes ago, Dilger85 said:

Pass up a top three player in the draft due to position? Sorry that’s moronic. He is not just a G, he was rated as the top guard in the past twenty years, generational talent.  Would you have spent a top 5 pick on Larry Allen? I would have. 

 

Personally, I would have taken the BUF deal in a heartbeat. But Ballard apparently wanted more in that position, which is understandable if he loved Nelson. In a trade back. the Colts would have still gotten a premier player AND two extra 2nd round picks.

 

Also, Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper were both highly-touted...and were top 10 picks. And both busted. Nelson won't bust like they did...but there is no guarantee with any pick.

 

And even if he turns into Brandon Scherff on day one (which would be awesome), I still don't think it moves the needle enough to justify picking one that high. But it would definitely be nice to have one G position locked down...even if I don't agree with the value.

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4 hours ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

If I may, I don’t think the OP is trolling given their history, to write off an opinion as trolling just because you don’t agree with it, it’s lazy. 

 

Now you could debunk by examining the logic of the situation and showing there’s no scenario where taking a QB makes sense:

 

1) Luck comes back, plays at a decent level, maybe some rust. A better O line helps a lot with this. Sure he might get injured further down the line but that’s the risk with ANY player. 

2) Luck doesn’t come back, JB starts and proves he’s a viable starter, again O line helps.

3) Same as 2 but JB sucks, likely we would be picking high again in 2019 and a lot can happen in the college landscape or even in FA between then and now. 

 

The only scenario it doesn’t make sense is if they think Luck is done and I doubt they’d have traded out of 3 then. 

 

I do think the Nelson pick was a low risk gamble in terms of player but a low pay off too in some respects. I was for trading down and taking Edmunds, using the 2s to trade back into the 1st. If he (or Smith even) proves to be a star then it will be hard not to ask what if.

 

My point was, all these people in here scared to death Andrew isn't coming back, thinking we're gonna draft top 5 next year, or whatever, are either incredibly sad, pessimistic people, or are downright misinformed. 

 

We didn't draft a QB for obvious reasons. Andrew will be ready. Move on. Change the subject.

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6 hours ago, azcolt said:

Nelson may well be an all-pro olineman for the next decade, but unless Luck returns to elite status for the next decade Ballard will never live down his decision to pass on a qb in the first round. I can’t see this working out well for the Colts. How many hits will Luck be able to take?

:facepalm:

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12 minutes ago, Legend of Luck said:

 

My point was, all these people in here scared to death Andrew isn't coming back, thinking we're gonna draft top 5 next year, or whatever, are either incredibly sad, pessimistic people, or are downright misinformed. 

 

We didn't draft a QB for obvious reasons. Andrew will be ready. Move on. Change the subject.

 

No one knows when he’s coming back either or the standard he will come back at if/when he does. You’re no more informed than they are. 

 

 

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7 hours ago, azcolt said:

Nelson may well be an all-pro olineman for the next decade, but unless Luck returns to elite status for the next decade Ballard will never live down his decision to pass on a qb in the first round. I can’t see this working out well for the Colts. How many hits will Luck be able to take?

That is the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard... you don’t take a QB in round one when you already have one that’s good... it’s not a gamble.  Mods please close this asinine thread...

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7 hours ago, azcolt said:

Nelson may well be an all-pro olineman for the next decade, but unless Luck returns to elite status for the next decade Ballard will never live down his decision to pass on a qb in the first round. I can’t see this working out well for the Colts. How many hits will Luck be able to take?

just wait next year you will be talking about how Luck had his best season ever. If he would've worked with the guy Drew Brees worked with from day 1 he would of been fine. Just look at Drew brees his first 5 seasons he was trash not going to be a hall of famer then he goes and gets the same shoulder surgery luck had that chargers thought would be career ending and in 2006 he had his best season yet with 4418 passing yards(#1 in league), 26 tds, 11 ints. His highest yard total before that was 3576. Now he is going to be a 1st ballot hall of famer.

 

Brees First 5 years 12,348 passing yards, 80 passing tds, 53 ints (59 games)

Luck first 5 years 19,078 passing yards, 132 passing tds, 68 ints (70 games)

If Brees played 70 games 14,650 p yards, 95 tds, 63 ints

 

and now look at what happened after Brees started working with Tom House. Luck started to work with Tom in Jan of this year if House improved brees that much after the same shoulder injury Luck had just imagine how Luck will be.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BreeDr00.htm

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1 hour ago, shastamasta said:

 

Personally, I would have taken the BUF deal in a heartbeat. But Ballard apparently wanted more in that position, which is understandable if he loved Nelson. In a trade back. the Colts would have still gotten a premier player AND two extra 2nd round picks.

 

Also, Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper were both highly-touted...and were top 10 picks. And both busted. Nelson won't bust like they did...but there is no guarantee with any pick.

 

And even if he turns into Brandon Scherff on day one (which would be awesome), I still don't think it moves the needle enough to justify picking one that high. But it would definitely be nice to have one G position locked down...even if I don't agree with the value.

Draft value is relative. The old scouting mantras don’t cut it anymore. Look at the money Norwell got paid, Gs are getting paid the market has changed because there are so few excellent OL which makes them more valuable.  The gap between Nelson and the next G was greater than the other positions in my opinion. 

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56 minutes ago, Jaric said:

So is the implication there won't be any more first round quarterbacks in the future?

 

Didn't you hear, this is the last year for them.  Not unlike Ford discontinuing the Taurus, first round QBs are now a thing of the past.

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1 hour ago, SteelCityColt said:

 

No one knows when he’s coming back either or the standard he will come back at if/when he does. You’re no more informed than they are. 

 

 

 

Ballard, Reich and Irsay have said Luck will be ready by training camp, and that they're specifically taking it slow now because there's no need to push it during OTA's.

All of them, including Luck himself, have said that this rehab process will make him stronger than before, and they all expect him to be even better than before the injury.

 

If there was ANY DOUBT AT ALL in that building, there would have been necessary steps taken this off-season. But there hasn't been a single one. NOT. ONE.


If you want to sit around and mope and worry and cause a fuss over some hypothetical situation where he doesn't return, or returns but isn't himself, that's your prerogative.

I'm not gonna waste my time, or anyone else's time for that matter, talking about him as if he's some kind of unknown entity. The staff has made it abundantly clear. Andrew is fine. Move. On.

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8 hours ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

The folks on 56th street thought he'd be back last year too.

 

8 hours ago, jvan1973 said:

Or did they?  

 

7 hours ago, shastamasta said:

If Luck isn't back, Foles will be plan A. So there really wasn't much risk passing on a QB.

 

Guys.. please... come on.

 

Luck already said a few weeks ago that they had every reason to expect him back last year, but he pushed his rehab too hard to try to get back sooner and it ended up causing a setback.

 

The staff didn't lie to us.

 

There's no conspiracy theory.

 

Andrew wanted to come back and play and he did too much. It's as simple as that. 

 

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2 hours ago, Legend of Luck said:

 

Ballard, Reich and Irsay have said Luck will be ready by training camp, and that they're specifically taking it slow now because there's no need to push it during OTA's.

All of them, including Luck himself, have said that this rehab process will make him stronger than before, and they all expect him to be even better than before the injury.

 

If there was ANY DOUBT AT ALL in that building, there would have been necessary steps taken this off-season. But there hasn't been a single one. NOT. ONE.


If you want to sit around and mope and worry and cause a fuss over some hypothetical situation where he doesn't return, or returns but isn't himself, that's your prerogative.

I'm not gonna waste my time, or anyone else's time for that matter, talking about him as if he's some kind of unknown entity. The staff has made it abundantly clear. Andrew is fine. Move. On.

 

You are kidding yourself if you don't think there is some level of doubt in the minds of Ballard, Reich, and Irsay. Nothing is definitive until Luck is making passes and taking hits in a real game. 

 

I wouldn't have used an early pick on a QB, but I would have been fine taking White or Falk in 5th/6th. Just as an insurance policy and/or future backup. 

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3 hours ago, Cynjin said:

 

Didn't you hear, this is the last year for them.  Not unlike Ford discontinuing the Taurus, first round QBs are now a thing of the past.

Man.  Ballard is really going to regret not drafting one while he had the chance.

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12 hours ago, azcolt said:

Nelson may well be an all-pro olineman for the next decade, but unless Luck returns to elite status for the next decade Ballard will never live down his decision to pass on a qb in the first round. I can’t see this working out well for the Colts. How many hits will Luck be able to take?

Why is having a strong OL bad regardless of who is at QB?

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I don't know if I would have been for or against a qb @6. Because I don't know jack about whats the inside info regarding Luck's health.

 

But I was showing support for the OP's concern which is legitimate. Imo,  in no way it's a ridiculous stupid comment about acquiring a QB as insurance for one that has missed the better part of 2 seasons AND STILL IS NOT THROWING A FOOTBALL 16 months after surgery. 

 

If anything, it's stupid and naive to insult the OP's concern. A lot of people around the country share the same concern, including Wingo this morning.

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14 hours ago, WarGhost21 said:

I love the draft, a time for some of the stupidest posts ever seen on the forum to return!! Yeah, we really should have gone QB and put him out there without protection like Luck! Great call!

 

:sarcasm:

No kidding I agree!

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7 hours ago, LJpalmbeacher2 said:

I don't know if I would have been for or against a qb @6. Because I don't know jack about whats the inside info regarding Luck's health.

 

But I was showing support for the OP's concern which is legitimate. Imo,  in no way it's a ridiculous stupid comment about acquiring a QB as insurance for one that has missed the better part of 2 seasons AND STILL IS NOT THROWING A FOOTBALL 16 months after surgery. 

 

If anything, it's stupid and naive to insult the OP's concern. A lot of people around the country share the same concern, including Wingo this morning.

Semantics but he hasnt thrown a ball since mid October, so 7 months, not 16. He was throwing in September and October before he got shut down. 

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On April 29, 2018 at 10:35 AM, azcolt said:

Nelson may well be an all-pro olineman for the next decade, but unless Luck returns to elite status for the next decade Ballard will never live down his decision to pass on a qb in the first round. I can’t see this working out well for the Colts. How many hits will Luck be able to take?

Say what now? How is selecting one of the most promising guards in football a failure exactly? On NFL Network, both former GM Charlie Casserly & Shaun O'Hara--SB winning center from the NY Giants raved about this selection for Indianapolis. 

 

Whatever substance you may be chewing, snorting, swallowing, or digesting AZC, please push back from the table & walk away. Thank you. 

 

I never thought we had a shot at Nelson & I was pleasantly surprised when Ballard landed him. 

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