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Ex QB Jim Miller hits panic button


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10 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

In the last (there have been more than 1 form these two recently) mock, Mills and PK alternated picks, unless picks were traded... which there was.

 

Stll... Mills ... whats up with Colts getting a QB after having already traded down?  Not a single Colt fan understands.  Of course we guess it is a combo of creating a stir on the air, and also that maybe he really believes Luck will suffer the fate he did with his shoulder surgeries.  Who knows for sure.

Even if Luck suffers another setback and needs another surgery/retires, we will not know that before the draft so there is no way we make a move like that without knowing for sure or with high certainty Luck is not coming back. 

 

IMO what happened is - the Colts knew what the timeline for Luck's recovery was. They knew when they will know if he will be alright going forward and that time is after the draft. At this point Ballard decided he's not getting a QB at the top of the draft because either he's confident enough Luck will be alright, or not willing to go QB at 3 without knowing Luck will be alright or not and decided to trade back and accumulate picks. 

 

At this point the chance of us trading back up in the draft for QB has to be close to zero... like... 0.0000000000000001% type of close to zero. 

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Luck's recovery is still uncertain, but I agree there's no way we trade back up in the draft to get one of the  "Big 4" which are hyped up beyond all belief.  OTOH, he could well prepare for any future situation by taking one at the top of round 3, there are are still good ones left (I Like Lauletta, and White).

 

Polian says hit rate on round 1 guys historically is 60%.  He hinted that it is near 50% for rounds 1-4 and less beyond.  To be a HOF GM, he claims the GM needs to be 52.5% correct on all picks in draft 'hits' in his career.

 

I'd rather take our 3rd rounder (#67) or fourth (#100 if a good one is still there) rather than use a top pick with a high potential bust (not elite or franchise) hit rate. You have to prepare for the worst, yet you cannot sink the organization with the potential a top draft pick pick bust for a QB; one they may not have even been needed if everything goes perfectly, as people point out.  But I'd rather deal with the 'problem' of having an extra 'good' QB than be one short when it comes crunch time and problems arise.

 

We have JB through 2019 and he could be traded before that, but a new QB we will have for 4 years (2 more beyond JB's rookie contract).  Carry 3 QB's if necessary, stash extra lower 2nd or 3rd string OL on practice squad.  Until Luck comes back and a QB can be  moved for future draft picks.  I understand this is not a popular position, but it is mine.  I was against Tolzien, and I'm now against Kaaya or Walker being QB2 behind JB if Luck can't go to start this season, and the possibility our O line is taking longer than folks here want to 'gel' together, thus punishing JB like last year.

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