Cut Manning, Don't Sit Luck!

[jvan1973]

exactly. Peyton was the opposite of clutch back in college.

He couldnt beat Florida, but alot of teams couldnt beat Florida.

[UndecidedFrog]

Even with Manning's injury he had as many NFL wins as Luck so that really doesn't mean anything.

In 2011, if you put Luck under center with the 2011 Colts team, he would perform better than a post-surgical rehabbing PM under center.

That's nice, but it's really nothing more than speculation, it's not really a serious answer. You have no idea if Luck will improve any year nor if Luck will be better than a 43 year old Manning.

You asked what I thought about Luck being better than Manning. I answered seriously.

These are my serious thoughts.

You have no idea if a 43 year old Manning would be better than Luck in his 9th year in the NFL.

[UndecidedFrog]

Rating means very little until you prove something in the NFL. There have been alot of "cant miss" prospects fall on their face in the NFL.

Scouts have been more right than wrong, especially with first round prospects. If they weren't, teams would not use them.

[bellboys]

I love watch Manning play, but we seen what happen when you put all your eggs in one basket. Sometimes they all break. Keeping Manning would be like that old car that you love. After several years it starts to break down and you can't get parts for it or they cost so much it don't worth it. Not saying Manning still can't play that a high enough level. But what happens if he gets hit hard enough he can't play anymore. Then the colts are stuck with a big contract.

[Coffeedrinker]

In 2011, if you put Luck under center with the 2011 Colts team, he would perform better than a post-surgical rehabbing PM under center.

Again, just a guess on your part and no way to prove it so it's really not worth discussing.

You asked what I thought about Luck being better than Manning. I answered seriously.

Actually I didn't. I asked Grav. but you bring up an interesting thought but that's for the mods to look into. And I asked about a rookie Luck better than Manning.

These are my serious thoughts.

I'm sorry.

You have no idea if a 43 year old Manning would be better than Luck in his 9th year in the NFL.

No I don't, nor have I speculated such.

[Coffeedrinker]

Scouts have been more right than wrong, especially with first round prospects. If they weren't, teams would not use them.

Scouts don't make the ratings that we see. Draft publications do.... and if they were right more than they were wrong, teams would hire them.

[UndecidedFrog]

Again, just a guess on your part and no way to prove it so it's really not worth discussing.

Not only a guess, but a pretty educated guess that PM, post surgery was not able to perform the entire 2011 season, whereas Luck was without injury. On that basis alone, I can easily deduce that Luck would have been a better QB under center with a Colts team than Manning in 2011.

Actually I didn't. I asked Grav. but you bring up an interesting thought but that's for the mods to look into. And I asked about a rookie Luck better than Manning.

If seriously only wanted Grav to answer, you should have pmed him/her. Posting it on the board invites responses from everyone.

[UndecidedFrog]

Scouts don't make the ratings that we see. Draft publications do.... and if they were right more than they were wrong, teams would hire them.

And from whom do you think these draft publications derive their ratings?

Let me guess....from people who do similar type analyses that scouts do.

[Coffeedrinker]

Not only a guess, but a pretty educated guess

But that's just it, it's not an educated guess. In order to have an educated guess you have to have some knowledge of the events that could lead to, in this case, Luck starting his first NFL game. And since you have no idea if Luck would; get injured in TC, hold out for an extended period of time, or any other of the numerous items that could prevent someone from starting an NFL game. Without know the outcome of those items then it's just a guess.

that PM, post surgery was not able to perform the entire 2011 season, whereas Luck was without injury. On that basis alone, I can easily deduce that Luck would have been a better QB under center with a Colts team than Manning in 2011.

No, you can't... that's not a deduction it's a guess.

If seriously only wanted Grav to answer, you should have pmed him/her. Posting it on the board invites responses from everyone.

I have no problem with you answering but you didn't say, "[y]ou asked if..." You stated, "[y]ou asked me if..." The use of that pronoun is interesting and I did not ask you. I asked Grav... perhaps it's the same thing.

[Coffeedrinker]

And from whom do you think these draft publications derive their ratings?

Not from team scouts.

Let me guess....from people who do similar type analyses that scouts do.

Yes, people who are not associated with a team and therefore their ratings only have value to those who buy their publications, which is not NFL teams.

[UndecidedFrog]

No, you can't... that's not a deduction it's a guess.

No, you are mistaken. In 2011, PM did not play one down in any game. That isn't a guess. That is a fact. Comparing any QB that was playing in 2011, even at the collegiate level, it is possible to arrive at the conclusion that such a QB would perform better than PM who did not play.

[Coffeedrinker]

No, you are mistaken. In 2011, PM did not play one down in any game. That isn't a guess. That is a fact. Comparing any QB that was playing in 2011, even at the collegiate level, it is possible to arrive at the conclusion that such a QB would perform better than PM who did not play.

Well, this is something I am sure you have been told many times before.... You're wrong. Because you cannot conclude that Luck would have played a single down in the NFL in 2011, therefore, you are guessing.

[UndecidedFrog]

Yes, people who are not associated with a team and therefore their ratings only have value to those who buy their publications, which is not NFL teams.

And are you so sure that NFL teams never buy these rating publications?

I suspect that many of any teams' ratings will closely align overall with the rating supplied in these publications.

Bottom line: people (whether or not they are called scouts) who do the work that scouts do in evaluating draft prospects arrive at ratings for college players in that year's draft. If there is a consensus among these ratings that show how highly rated a prospect is, I can be assured that the prospect is highly rated, and upon comparing that rating with ratings of other players playing that position, I can determine who has the higher rating. Having done exactly this, I find that Luck is more highly rated than all the QB prospects since PM, according to some scout ratings, and since Elway, according to another scout's ratings.

[UndecidedFrog]

Well, this is something I am sure you have been told many times before.... You're wrong. Because you cannot conclude that Luck would have played a single down in the NFL in 2011, therefore, you are guessing.

You're welcome to disregard the reality of the situation. Any QB, collegiate or professional who was healthy enough to play in 2011 would preform better than a FHOF, 4xMVP, QB who could not play due to injury and surgical repair.

[Jason_]

Manning is injury prone? Nevermind I thought there could be a serious discussion in this thread but I see now that is not possible.

You beat me to it. I was thinking the same thing. That's like saying Brett Favre was injury prone.

Leaf had a talented team. Luck had scrubs.

\

Good grief...this has been discussed ad nauseam in multiple threads. Luck did not have "scrubs". Coby Fleener is considered one of, if not the best TE in this draft class and his other TE's Zac Ertz and Levine Toilolo are among the top 5 rated TEs being projected for their respective draft classes. Jonathan Martin and David DeCastro are both rated as first round talent. Martin is the #3 rated OT and DeCastro is the #1 rated OG. The Stanford rushing attack averaged 210.6 yards per game which was #18 in the country (out of120 teams) and if you remove from consideration the teams that run double/triple option-read type gimmicky offenses that don't do anything but run the ball (Navy, Georgia Tech, Army, Air Force etc) then Stanford is probably top 5. The Stanford defense was #28 in the country (again out of 120 total teams) which may not sound too impressive but considering it's out of 120 teams they were in the top 25%. They were hardly a team of scrubs despite what many people try to claim when they attempt to deify Luck. This is not an attempt to take anything away from Luck per se but rather an attempt to keep things in proper perspective, which some people seem incapable of doing.

[KaylaD]

I think its pretty ridiculous people are actually saying a rookie Luck would have been better then Peyton this year because he was injured! I guess if we use that logic then a HS qb would be better then an injured Luck? Seems to be the way people are thinking. Someone up there wrote and compared Peyton to an old car, are you serious?? I don't care who says what, about how good Luck will be. He has never played an NFL game and does not deserve nor has he earned the right to take Peyton's spot. If Peyton is healthy and can play then no one else deserves to be our qb other then Peyton. He made Indy what it is, show him some respect. As stated in another comment, 4 time MVP, Super Bowl champion. FHOF. Come on people. I'm not saying Luck will not be good or what Luck will be, that has to be proven. All I'm saying is if Peyton is healthy and can play then they need to restructure with him. Whoever we draft can sit behind him and should be happy to do so. Just my opinion.

[UndecidedFrog]

I think its pretty ridiculous people are actually saying a rookie Luck would have been better then Peyton this year because he was injured! I guess if we use that logic then a HS qb would be better then an injured Luck?

If the injury kept Luck from playing one game in 2011, then yes, the HS QB would have performed better in 2011 than Luck.

[Vance]

I think its pretty ridiculous people are actually saying a rookie Luck would have been better then Peyton this year because he was injured! I guess if we use that logic then a HS qb would be better then an injured Luck?

Who would run faster, a guy with a broken leg or a guy with two healthy legs?

I respect your honor towards P-dog though.

[KaylaD]

I just do not think it is fair or right to try and compare the two. If Peyton was healthy and played college, he would destroy teams. Luck healthy in the NFL? Yeah that is an unknown.

[UndecidedFrog]

I just do not think it is fair or right to try and compare the two. If Peyton was healthy and played college, he would destroy teams. Luck healthy in the NFL? Yeah that is an unknown.

If Luck or any other college QB was healthy enough to play, they would perform better than a PM who was not healthy enough to play.

Nothing unknown here. We were talking about 2011, last season. We know for a fact that PM was not healthy enough to play.

[KaylaD]

Well why does that even matter? I don't get the point in saying something like that.The guy never missed a game til this year and now people want to say he is injury prone?

[UndecidedFrog]

Well why does that even matter? I don't get the point in saying something like that.The guy never missed a game til this year and now people want to say he is injury prone?

You stepped into the middle of the conversation I was having with CoffeeDrinker.

I never claimed that PM was injury-prone.

It matters, because it was part of my answer to the question CoffeeDrinker asked about if Luck was better than Manning.

I provided an answer that was comprehensive over time, both in history, and into the future (from my perspective).

I said in 2010, no, Luck was not better than PM.

I said in 2011, yes, Luck was better than PM due to the fact that PM was injured and not able to play one game during that year.

I said in 2012, unsure, because of PM's uncertain arm, and Luck's uncertain translation into the NFL

I said in 2013 and beyond, yes, that Luck will be better given his increasing experience in the NFL, while approaching his peak, as PM ages every year closer to his retirement.

[KaylaD]

I guess I can see where you are coming from but I will have to say I disagree with most of that. I still don't think it is right to say anything about the future. If Peyton stays healthy and is playing in 2013, no way would I predict Luck to be better then Peyton.

[Coffeedrinker]

You're welcome to disregard the reality of the situation.

That is what you don't seem to comprehend... there is no reality of the situation. Luck did not take an NFL snap, you cannot guarantee that if he was in the NFL he would have taken a snap. Therefore it is just a guess.

Any QB, collegiate or professional who was healthy enough to play in 2011 would preform better than a FHOF, 4xMVP, QB who could not play due to injury and surgical repair.

So since we are just making up scenarios that have no basis in reality, here is one. A guy steps up under center for the first snap of the football season. The ball is snapped, and the QB trips over his own feet and then fumbles the ball as he's falling to the ground. While on the ground a defender picks it up, the QB trying to make up for his error stands up and gives chase to the defender but doesn't realize he stepped in the way of an offensive player who was just about to make the tackle. That player, who just happens to be the pro-bowl RB, tries to miss the QB and tears his ACL and MCL and is done for the season, the defender easily scores the TD. The QB is so upset he takes off his helmet and throws it and breaks the snapping hand of the center who will miss 6 weeks with the broken hand. As he's walking to the sideline the players all call him a putz, when he gets to the sideline the coach chews him out and sits him on the bench. Later in the game when the coach looks over he sees the QB crying. He so disgusted by it, he makes him sit the bench for the rest of the season.

There is a situation (just as realistic as yours) where a player actually performed worse than someone who did not take a single snap all season.

[KaylaD]

That is what you don't seem to comprehend... there is no reality of the situation. Luck did not take an NFL snap, you cannot guarantee that if he was in the NFL he would have taken a snap. Therefore it is just a guess.

So since we are just making up scenarios that have no basis in reality, here is one. A guy steps up under center for the first snap of the football season. The ball is snapped, and the QB trips over his own feet and then fumbles the ball as he's falling to the ground. While on the ground a defender picks up the QB trying to make up for his error stands up and gives chase to the defender but doesn't realize he stepped in the way of an offensive player who was just about to make the tackle. That player, who just happens to be the pro-bowl RB tries to miss the QB and tears his ACL and MCL and is done for the season, the defender easily scores the TD. The QB is so upset he takes off his helmet and throws it and breaks the snapping hand of the center who will miss 6 weeks with the broken hand. As he's walking to the sideline the players all call him a putz, when he gets to the sideline the coach chews him out and sits him on the bench. Later in the game when the coach looks over he sees the QB crying. He so disgusted by it, he makes him sit the bench for the rest of the season.

There is a situation (just as realistic as yours) where a player actually performed worse than someone who did not take a single snap all season.

Hahaha,....love it! Totally agree! Great story by the way.

[Coffeedrinker]

And are you so sure that NFL teams never buy these rating publications?

I suspect that many of any teams' ratings will closely align overall with the rating supplied in these publications.

Am I sure they don't buy them. Of the teams I know of, yes I am absolutely sure. 27 of the 32 NFL teams do belong to a scouting service and that scouting service does provide some information to the draft publications that pay them. But what they don't provide to those draft publications is anticipated round, what percentage for each round is for each player(for example a player may have a 10% chance of getting drafted in the 1st round, 35% in the 2nd and 90% chance in the 3rd), nor the numerical rating given to each player based for which they are analyzed. If you look at CBS sports draft prospects, those 5 or 6 categories they rate a player are just headers for the categories that real scouts use.

Bottom line: people (whether or not they are called scouts) who do the work that scouts do in evaluating draft prospects arrive at ratings for college players in that year's draft. If there is a consensus among these ratings that show how highly rated a prospect is, I can be assured that the prospect is highly rated, and upon comparing that rating with ratings of other players playing that position, I can determine who has the higher rating. Having done exactly this, I find that Luck is more highly rated than all the QB prospects since PM, according to some scout ratings, and since Elway, according to another scout's ratings.

That is incorrect. They may come up with ratings but those ratings (whether a consensus or not) mean nothing to NFL teams. That is the bottom line... I understand, you are trying to be logical and I applaud your efforts because so many people don't even try... but you really need a LOT more practice.

[manningstheman]

I just dont see cutting the guy the guy that has turn the Colts into a NFL power house. There is no one that can predict the future. But, I can see the past. Peyton was the league MVP four times. He whas been to 2 SB's. He has help this team win countless AFC South crowns and two AFC championships. I havent seen Luck win one NFL game. I havent seen RGIII win one NFL game.

I cant tell you if Peyton is going to be 100 % when he comes back. But, I have now heard he is doing alot better and I have now seen him throwing the ball well. Its only the start of March. He seems to be on track to be fully ready by September. Thats 7 more months of nothing but improvement. So, I dont see why you cut him? I am not saying I wouldnt draft Luck, but to me it makes more sense to trade that pick for everything you can get and start rebuilding this team with young talented players at positions of need. Qb doesnt seem to be a positon of need right now. There is always going to be another QB that cant miss in the draft. There always is one that is advertised that way.

[insaneColtsfan]

Hi everyone been a long time since i posted here.... Moved to Iowa a couple of years ago.

I have been a Colts fan since they made the move to Indy and i think it needs to be said that maybe the best thing for Manning is to NOT stay with the Colts.

Think about it, the team is going to be rebuilding and restructuring for probably the time Peyton has left to play and so the chances of them winning a SuperBowl even with Manning at 100% are slim (face it he can't play every position).

Personally i think if he wants another SuperBowl he needs to look for a team with better chances and let the Colts rebuild a team around who ever they draft as a replacement.

[Phil J]

Think about it, the team is going to be rebuilding and restructuring for probably the time Peyton has left to play and so the chances of them winning a SuperBowl even with Manning at 100% are slim (face it he can't play every position).

agreed. welcome to the board.

[southwest1]

I think its pretty ridiculous people are actually saying a rookie Luck would have been better then Peyton this year because he was injured! I guess if we use that logic then a HS qb would be better then an injured Luck? Seems to be the way people are thinking. Someone up there wrote and compared Peyton to an old car, are you serious?? I don't care who says what, about how good Luck will be. He has never played an NFL game and does not deserve nor has he earned the right to take Peyton's spot. If Peyton is healthy and can play then no one else deserves to be our qb other then Peyton. He made Indy what it is, show him some respect. As stated in another comment, 4 time MVP, Super Bowl champion. FHOF. Come on people. I'm not saying Luck will not be good or what Luck will be, that has to be proven. All I'm saying is if Peyton is healthy and can play then they need to restructure with him. Whoever we draft can sit behind him and should be happy to do so. Just my opinion.

Well said Kayla. Peyton Manning is a proven commodity in the NFL. 4 MVP's, multiple seasons of over 4,000 yards throwing, fought his way through bursa sac knee removal surgery in 2008 & won 8 straight games to make the playoffs, his relentless work ethic is legendary...Yet some misguided individuals out there are compelled to discard Peyton for a college QB legend. Are they Crazy?!! Jamarcus Russell, Matt Liner, & Ryan Leaf were college legends at their respective universities too & where are they now? Gone or 2nd string backups that where. Veterans on an established roster could care less what a college celebrity QB has done...that's meaningless & irrelevant.

The speed of the NFL is much faster, the windows, are much tighter, & manipulation of corners, DB's, & safeties are essential to win in this league...i.e. mental toughness not just the ability to throw deep ball alone. When QB Tom Brady underwent season ending knee surgery a while back, did Patriots Nation demand that Matt Cassel replace him permanently? Of course not!!! Why are so many people ready to dig Manning's INDY grave then? Simply foolish & premature in my humble opinion.

[oldunclemark]

I guess I can see where you are coming from but I will have to say I disagree with most of that. I still don't think it is right to say anything about the future. If Peyton stays healthy and is playing in 2013, no way would I predict Luck to be better then Peyton.

That's what Im saying..K-girl

IN 2015..Luck will be better than Peyton Manning.

But I want to win next year..and rookies need time to adjust...

For decades //rookie QBs sat on the bench and nobody said 'boo'

Its better for the Colts if Manning is the QB next September and its better for Luck if he watches the first season.

[KaylaD]

That's what Im saying..K-girl

IN 2015..Luck will be better than Peyton Manning.

But I want to win next year..and rookies need time to adjust...

For decades //rookie QBs sat on the bench and nobody said 'boo'

Its better for the Colts if Manning is the QB next September and its better for Luck if he watches the first season.

Thank you! Some people seem to understand this and I am so happy to hear someone else think like I do about it. If Luck starts next year what do people really expect out of that? I think people have unrealistic expectations.

[UndecidedFrog]

Thank you! Some people seem to understand this and I am so happy to hear someone else think like I do about it. If Luck starts next year what do people really expect out of that? I think people have unrealistic expectations.

If Luck starts all the games in 2012, I expect the Colts to win 3 or 4 games. Anything more would be gravy.

After his rookie year, I expect Luck to improve substantially along with the rest of the rebuilding team such that they will win at least 9 games the following season.

Given we still don't know the status of PM's arm, whether he can throw at an NFL level or not, it is unclear to me how many games the Colts can win if he starts all the 2012 games with this rebuilding team.

[buccolts]

Who would run faster, a guy with a broken leg or a guy with two healthy legs?

I respect your honor towards P-dog though.

Did you see Peyton's bootleg against the Raiders in 2010?

The guy with the broken leg could have out run him.

[number28]

Right then lets be brutal, Colts need to cut Manning whatever and start Luck. Andrew Luck does'nt need to sit a year or 2 it will not be of any any benefit to him. Yes Rodgers blah blah blah but he was not as ready as Luck is now. If you sit Luck for a couple of years it will be a total waste! Didn't Manning himself say that the best way to learn is to play. Sorry but its time to move on

umm no

I'm sorry but many of us love Manning and love what he has done for our team. We have good memories.

You wanna cut Manning? he will win another MVP next season and will take any team into playoffs. You wanna cut him and let an unproven Andrew Luck play?

no thank you

[number28]

oh and we are on page 3 and the OP has not even one poster that "liked" your post. Phallacy doesnt get likes.

[number28]

I am a Manning fan, so dont think that I am just trying to stir things up, its called being realistic about things guys

you are not a Manning fan.

[UndecidedFrog]

You wanna cut him and let an unproven Andrew Luck play?

Yes, just like the Colts traded Jim Harbaugh to let an unproven Peyton Manning play.

[number28]

Yes, just like the Colts traded Jim Harbaugh to let an unproven Peyton Manning play.

I said it before I will say it again.

Harbaugh was an average QB. We took a gamble on Peyton and it paid off. Peyton was definitely gonna become average at the least.

Right now we are gambling with replacing a superstar HOF'er who is ticked off and had 4 more elite years left.

So, yeah, not the same thing.

[number28]

Luck has to become a star or a superstar. Anything less is a bust.

Would you be happy if Luck turns out to be just average?