Would you trade an early 2nd round pick of ours for a future 2019 1st?

[Yoshinator]

The 2018 draft will be an exciting draft for all of us Colts fans, as not only do we have a top 5 pick in each round, but we have 3 additional 2nd round picks in the next two drafts thanks to incredible fleecing by Chris Ballard. However, if it came to this, and a team that really wanted a player at one of our early 2nd round picks decided to offer their 1st round pick next year for a 2nd rounder this year, would you do it? Would you have the patience to put off one of those picks to upgrade to a guaranteed extra 1st round pick in a year? We would still have an extra 2nd this year, and an extra 1st, 2nd, and any compensatory picks we receive as well. 

 

Let me know in the poll and any comments below!

[Carlos Danger]

There are only a couple teams that could would qualify for me to do that... The Jets come to mind. 

 

If the team you trade with had better be bad or you might end up only moving a few spots... Plus, you cant predict  what players you might get a whole year in advance.. 

 

I'd trade that lower 2nd rounder for just about any team's 2019 1st, though... It makes sense in a 3 year rebuild, but not necessarily for a contender, imo. 

[WarGhost21]

This is not very likely to happen. This is something that may happen in Madden, but a team would never trade a first for a second no matter what year it might be. If we were offered this for whatever reason, you jump on it. A first is always better than a second, no matter what year you have it in

[Finball]

33 minutes ago, WarGhost21 said:

This is not very likely to happen. This is something that may happen in Madden, but a team would never trade a first for a second no matter what year it might be. If we were offered this for whatever reason, you jump on it. A first is always better than a second, no matter what year you have it in

 

We actually did that little over decade ago... And used the pick to take Tony Ugoh. LOL.

 

But I don't think it's been done this decade. Broncos and Panthers traded their '10 first rounders for '09 second rounders (with bad success) and it hasn't been done since.

 

 

As for OP, depends on the team. There are about dozen teams for which I probably wouldn't accept the trade.

[chad72]

I'll take my chances with pretty much every non-playoff team from the last year (makes 20 of them) that we will move at least 5-10 spots if a few things go our way.

[OffensivelyPC]

Yeah, as the others have stated, it's such a rare happenstance that it almost never happens. 

 

First, there has to be a team willing to trade, this is going to remove the teams that aren't automatic playoff contenders on a regular basis.  The Browns, for instance, aren't going to use a future first knowing that based on the last however many years, they've consistently had top 5 or 10 picks.   

 

Second, the received pick will have to be early in the second round, which ours is, of course. But the draft class has to be strong enough that the players that make it to the second round are strong enough to warrant using a mid-first round pick .  This is why I say it can't be perennial bottom dwellers, because it would be a top 10 pick which is far more valuable than a mid-late first.  So there has to be a good 15 to 20 people that basically have to have mid-first round grades so that a handful of those guys get pushed back to the second round. 

 

This leads to the final reason it's not likely to happen.  The draft has to go just right to push guys that the receiving team have mid-first round grades on to justify using a future first in order to obtain a second.  In most cases, guys drafting within 10-15 spots can use the current second plus other owned or acquired draft capital from the current draft.  So really, the only teams you're going to get a 1st from as payment for a 2nd are teams that are too far away to get the pick with their current second plus a 3rd et al.  Of course, getting a 1st from a team that's made the playoffs isn't what I think you are hoping for, but that seems to me to be the likely trade partner in the scenario you've envisioned.

[chad72]

2 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Yeah, as the others have stated, it's such a rare happenstance that it almost never happens. 

 

First, there has to be a team willing to trade, this is going to remove the teams that aren't automatic playoff contenders on a regular basis.  The Browns, for instance, aren't going to use a future first knowing that based on the last however many years, they've consistently had top 5 or 10 picks.   

 

Second, the received pick will have to be early in the second round, which ours is, of course. But the draft class has to be strong enough that the players that make it to the second round are strong enough to warrant using a mid-first round pick .  This is why I say it can't be perennial bottom dwellers, because it would be a top 10 pick which is far more valuable than a mid-late first.  So there has to be a good 15 to 20 people that basically have to have mid-first round grades so that a handful of those guys get pushed back to the second round. 

 

This leads to the final reason it's not likely to happen.  The draft has to go just right to push guys that the receiving team have mid-first round grades on to justify using a future first in order to obtain a second.  In most cases, guys drafting within 10-15 spots can use the current second plus other owned or acquired draft capital from the current draft.  So really, the only teams you're going to get a 1st from as payment for a 2nd are teams that are too far away to get the pick with their current second plus a 3rd et al.  Of course, getting a 1st from a team that's made the playoffs isn't what I think you are hoping for, but that seems to me to be the likely trade partner in the scenario you've envisioned.

 

Yep, I'd take my chances with the Falcons or Saints, given how the NFC South oscillates with their division winners annually, if one of them came up and gave us their first rounder in 2019.

[Shadow_Creek]

if we were a complete team already playoff worthy id say yes on using the second for a 1st but we need everyone of those extra picks plus the extra one in next years draft. 

[shasta519]

Have you seen next year's DL class? I would make this trade in a heartbeat to just about any team except a few.

[Trueman]

It would depend on who is left on the board , and which team was offering the pick.

 

If it was a perennially stupid franchise like the Dolphins , I’d definitely consider it.

 

Ideally, you want to take advantage of a team with supremely flawed expectations , like the Celtics did with the Brooklyn Nets.

 

Or like when the 49ers traded for the Patriots 27th overall in 2007 for a 2018 1st , which then became the 7th overall pick.

[stitches]

I'd trade both of them for 2019 1st round picks if those were available. IMO this type of (mis)evaluation of future assets is one of the biggest inefficiencies in the league. Assuming the draft classes are of relatively similar quality you should always trade a current year pick for better round future pick... 

 

(with one exception really - unless there is a player on the board that you value as a first rounder and you think his value will be better than the expected value of the future pick you are getting - lets say for example that a player you value as a top 10 pick somehow falls to 36 and the Steelers for example offer you their future pick - it's not very likely the future pick will get you a better player, so... you don't take that offer). 

[Yoshinator]

Nice evaluations of this guys. I was hoping Ballard might do this (although it's rare), since he's starting to store future picks now.

[NewColtsFan]

 

I'd consider the offer if I thought the team who wants the deal would finish with a top-16 draft pick in 2019.

 

And I'd probably DO the deal if I thought the pick might actually be a top-10 pick next year.

 

I wouldn't accept the offer if I thought the pick might be in the upper teens or 20's....   not enough of a benefit to have to wait one full year for that prize.

 

If you're making me wait a year,   there needs to be a BIG payoff.

 

[coltsfanmurf]

9 hours ago, Jared Cisneros said:

The 2018 draft will be an exciting draft for all of us Colts fans, as not only do we have a top 5 pick in each round, but we have 3 additional 2nd round picks in the next two drafts thanks to incredible fleecing by Chris Ballard. However, if it came to this, and a team that really wanted a player at one of our early 2nd round picks decided to offer their 1st round pick next year for a 2nd rounder this year, would you do it? Would you have the patience to put off one of those picks to upgrade to a guaranteed extra 1st round pick in a year? We would still have an extra 2nd this year, and an extra 1st, 2nd, and any compensatory picks we receive as well. 

 

Let me know in the poll and any comments below!

 

Actually NOT true for the 1st round.

[Yoshinator]

4 minutes ago, coltsfanmurf said:

 

Actually NOT true for the 1st round.

Good point. You are correct.

[AZColt11]

Yeah, but count me in the "depends on the team we trade with" crowd.  Wouldn't make much sense to trade with a team who might be picking high 20's for a guy who could help us now.  It'd have to be a team such as the Jets or Browns that'll likely suck again.

[WoolMagnet]

9 hours ago, Finball said:

 

We actually did that little over decade ago... And used the pick to take Tony Ugoh. LOL.

 

But I don't think it's been done this decade. Broncos and Panthers traded their '10 first rounders for '09 second rounders (with bad success) and it hasn't been done since.

 

 

As for OP, depends on the team. There are about dozen teams for which I probably wouldn't accept the trade.

We were kinda desperate after Tarik Glenn's somewhat surprising retirement.

[Trueman]

20 minutes ago, WoolMagnet said:

We were kinda desperate after Tarik Glenn's somewhat surprising retirement.

 

Yeah , Glenn retiring was a gut-punch. With all due respect to Castonzo , we still haven’t replaced Tarik.