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OK, looks like we're drafting Nelson ...


Gigc

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17 minutes ago, OLD FAN MAN said:

I think ballard thinks our players are good enough with new coaching, imo he thinks it was coaching not talent level

If he thought that he wouldn't be pursuing these guys.

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25 minutes ago, GoColts8818 said:

I read on Twitter earlier tonight that the Colts would purse Pouncey if Miami cuts him since he asked for his release.  If the Colts got him my guess is that either him or Kelly would move to guard

Gee, ya think?

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I’m gonna put this out there for everyone right now:

 

if you think that that we are trading back (I do) then stop thinking we are getting Nelson. Nelson could go before we pick. He could go between 3-5. 

 

This whole “offensive guards never go in the top 5 and rarely in the top 10. The position is just not valued that highly” has been thrown out the window in free agency. If you used to think that then think again. Seriously. The truth is staring all of us in the face. 

 

How many RBs got $8M+ ? How many skill position guys or pass rushers so far this offseason?

 

I know some will say there was a lack of

talent there. But don’t even kid yourself. There’s a lack of talent this free agent cycle at interior offensive line and ppl are paying a ton to grab any competent player. 

 

If Nelson grades out as the best or second best prospect in the draft and a potential all-pro then that means he’s a guy with a $10-$13M value based on this offseason. The only guys landing more are QBs for the most part. 

 

So I would fully expect the QBs to take priority and then Nelson and Chubb. Possibly even in that order. 

 

There is is a paradigm shift staring us right in the face. Hopefully folks (including our front office) learn and keep up w the times. 

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16 minutes ago, TomDiggs said:

I’m gonna put this out there for everyone right now:

 

if you think that that we are trading back (I do) then stop thinking we are getting Nelson. Nelson could go before we pick. He could go between 3-5. 

 

This whole “offensive guards never go in the top 5 and rarely in the top 10. The position is just not valued that highly” has been thrown out the window in free agency. If you used to think that then think again. Seriously. The truth is staring all of us in the face. 

 

How many RBs got $8M+ ? How many skill position guys or pass rushers so far this offseason?

 

I know some will say there was a lack of

talent there. But don’t even kid yourself. There’s a lack of talent this free agent cycle at interior offensive line and ppl are paying a ton to grab any competent player. 

 

If Nelson grades out as the best or second best prospect in the draft and a potential all-pro then that means he’s a guy with a $10-$13M value based on this offseason. The only guys landing more are QBs for the most part. 

 

So I would fully expect the QBs to take priority and then Nelson and Chubb. Possibly even in that order. 

 

There is is a paradigm shift staring us right in the face. Hopefully folks (including our front office) learn and keep up w the times. 

 

Agreed, well said.

 

No such thing as positional value, save for QBs (top of totem pole), Kickers, and Punters.

 

Think the Steelers want to trade LeVeon Bell for Bjoern Werner right now?

Or the Cardinals wanting to trade David Johnson for Randy Gregory?

 

 

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1 hour ago, Gigc said:

not sure there's anything left in free agency unless there's a surprise cut. 

we just have to have another OL

 

I love Nelson and would be thrilled if we drafted him.

 

But I think the chances that it happen are small.   We look to be positioning ourselves for a trade back...   maybe even two....

 

So don't get your hopes up to high...

 

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1 minute ago, rock8591 said:

 

Agreed, well said.

 

No such thing as positional value, save for QBs (top of totem pole), Kickers, and Punters.

 

Think the Steelers want to trade LeVeon Bell for Bjoern Werner right now?

No such thing as positional value?  Look at the top flight guards that teams have let walk the last few years....Osemele, zietler, Norwell....and all in their mid 20's.  Name all the stud pass rushers that teams let walk before their 2nd contract.

dont fret about Nelson, we can pick him up in free agency in a few yrs.

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7 minutes ago, gnet550 said:

If he comes away with Pouncey and Fluker and resigns Mewhort I’d feel pretty good...let’s pump the brakes again people

I watched Fluker a lot with the Chargers and he was NOT very good. We have better linemen on the team right now.

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42 minutes ago, TomDiggs said:

I’m gonna put this out there for everyone right now:

 

if you think that that we are trading back (I do) then stop thinking we are getting Nelson. Nelson could go before we pick. He could go between 3-5. 

 

This whole “offensive guards never go in the top 5 and rarely in the top 10. The position is just not valued that highly” has been thrown out the window in free agency. If you used to think that then think again. Seriously. The truth is staring all of us in the face. 

 

How many RBs got $8M+ ? How many skill position guys or pass rushers so far this offseason?

 

I know some will say there was a lack of

talent there. But don’t even kid yourself. There’s a lack of talent this free agent cycle at interior offensive line and ppl are paying a ton to grab any competent player. 

 

If Nelson grades out as the best or second best prospect in the draft and a potential all-pro then that means he’s a guy with a $10-$13M value based on this offseason. The only guys landing more are QBs for the most part. 

 

So I would fully expect the QBs to take priority and then Nelson and Chubb. Possibly even in that order. 

 

There is is a paradigm shift staring us right in the face. Hopefully folks (including our front office) learn and keep up w the times. 

If Nelson doesn’t go at 1 or 2, then the Colts could in theory trade back three times, ultimately ending up with spot six, and still get Nelson.  The wildcard is the Giants at spot 2.

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1 hour ago, TomDiggs said:

I’m gonna put this out there for everyone right now:

 

if you think that that we are trading back (I do) then stop thinking we are getting Nelson. Nelson could go before we pick. He could go between 3-5. 

 

This whole “offensive guards never go in the top 5 and rarely in the top 10. The position is just not valued that highly” has been thrown out the window in free agency. If you used to think that then think again. Seriously. The truth is staring all of us in the face. 

 

How many RBs got $8M+ ? How many skill position guys or pass rushers so far this offseason?

 

I know some will say there was a lack of

talent there. But don’t even kid yourself. There’s a lack of talent this free agent cycle at interior offensive line and ppl are paying a ton to grab any competent player. 

 

If Nelson grades out as the best or second best prospect in the draft and a potential all-pro then that means he’s a guy with a $10-$13M value based on this offseason. The only guys landing more are QBs for the most part. 

 

So I would fully expect the QBs to take priority and then Nelson and Chubb. Possibly even in that order. 

 

There is is a paradigm shift staring us right in the face. Hopefully folks (including our front office) learn and keep up w the times. 

 

WRs are landing more than that...and so did a CB...and good pass rushers would as well if they were available. I think the market for second-tier Gs might be shifting...but it's hard telling with a weak FA group and an increasing cap. Solder got $15M/year because of it. 

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3 hours ago, GoColts8818 said:

I read on Twitter earlier tonight that the Colts would purse Pouncey if Miami cuts him since he asked for his release.  If the Colts got him my guess is that either him or Kelly would move to guard

he was realesed and it looks like the colts are not looking at him

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I really hope so. We need a sure thing. We need a for sure solution on the OL.

 

No more "lets hope so and so falls to us in the 2nd round" or "i hope Clark can develop" 

 

Protecting 12 should be priority number 1, 2 and 3. Pass rush is number 4, 5 and 6.

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2 hours ago, TomDiggs said:

I’m gonna put this out there for everyone right now:

 

if you think that that we are trading back (I do) then stop thinking we are getting Nelson. Nelson could go before we pick. He could go between 3-5. 

 

This whole “offensive guards never go in the top 5 and rarely in the top 10. The position is just not valued that highly” has been thrown out the window in free agency. If you used to think that then think again. Seriously. The truth is staring all of us in the face. 

 

How many RBs got $8M+ ? How many skill position guys or pass rushers so far this offseason?

 

I know some will say there was a lack of

talent there. But don’t even kid yourself. There’s a lack of talent this free agent cycle at interior offensive line and ppl are paying a ton to grab any competent player. 

 

If Nelson grades out as the best or second best prospect in the draft and a potential all-pro then that means he’s a guy with a $10-$13M value based on this offseason. The only guys landing more are QBs for the most part. 

 

So I would fully expect the QBs to take priority and then Nelson and Chubb. Possibly even in that order. 

 

There is is a paradigm shift staring us right in the face. Hopefully folks (including our front office) learn and keep up w the times. 

I agree with what you are saying but i'm not so sure the bulk of it stemming from a current lack of quality Guards on the market at this time.  We see it cycle from CB to WR to OT to C.  I see it more of a splly/demand thing.  There are s geral teams (us included) with holes in the OL.  

  I think you are right, in that the importance of controlling the point of attack has increased.  We have it drilled intobour heads every game we watch.  OTs have historically got paid, but we've also seen the contracts of G and C increase rramatically too.

  I also think that Gettleman had alot to do with the crazy Norwell deal.  He helped escalate the pric as he then did with Solder.  He was getting OL NO MATTER the cost.

  I still think pass rusher still trumps all positions except QB as that seems to be the 2nd hardest position to find a playmaker or elite talent.  I guess,in my mind, the difference between elite and "serviceable". Means alot more to QBs and pass rush than any other position as it affects the outcome of games.

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18 minutes ago, needanoline63 said:

The only way Ballard can make the fans happy(or at least me) is if he drafts Saquon Barkley. Very bad off season, no offensive lineman signed either. Scary

Before you get too scared I have good news for you. The off season  isn't only 3 days long. That's right put those scary pants away time for the big boy britches the off season just started. Surprise Surprise Surprise  Ballard will sign OL.  I'm afraid it's not all good news making you happy isn't at the top of Ballard's to do list. It gets worse word is irs not even on his list.  That doesn't mean we don't draft Barkley 

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2 minutes ago, akcolt said:

Before you get too scared I have good news for you. The off season  isn't only 3 days long. That's right put those scary pants away time for the big boy britches the off season just started. Surprise Surprise Surprise  Ballard will sign OL.  I'm afraid it's not all good news making you happy isn't at the top of Ballard's to do list. It gets worse word is irs not even on his list.  That doesn't mean we don't draft Barkley 

The best offensive lineman are gone. We needed a ryan Jensen and Andrew Norwell(both for that matter). It’s sad most of you don’t get it. Castonzo isn’t gonna get better(he already is over rated), Kelly could end up catching the injury bug again,mewhort is coming off an injury. Don’t you get it?! Our entire offensive line is questionable. We’ve done nothing to protect our franchise qb. This Swiss cheese line will end up getting luck hurt again. Trade luck to the browns and get a boatload of picks. Get something for him while we can, before he gets hurt again

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58 minutes ago, needanoline63 said:

The best offensive lineman are gone. We needed a ryan Jensen and Andrew Norwell(both for that matter). It’s sad most of you don’t get it. Castonzo isn’t gonna get better(he already is over rated), Kelly could end up catching the injury bug again,mewhort is coming off an injury. Don’t you get it?! Our entire offensive line is questionable. We’ve done nothing to protect our franchise qb. This Swiss cheese line will end up getting luck hurt again. Trade luck to the browns and get a boatload of picks. Get something for him while we can, before he gets hurt again

Castonzo over rated?  That has been said but yet has been debunked time and time again.

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5 hours ago, TomDiggs said:

This whole “offensive guards never go in the top 5 and rarely in the top 10. The position is just not valued that highly” has been thrown out the window in free agency. If you used to think that then think again. Seriously. The truth is staring all of us in the face.  

 

Nothing has been thrown out the window. Just on example: Last year the Jaguars drafted Fournette at 1/4, who wasn't considered / hyped as much as Barkley is this year, but was the clear cut best prospect and most analysts put him in the top5 of last years draft. And he was good. However nothing spectacular compared to Cook, Nixon, Kamara, Hunt, etc. They now have a RB who is earning 6.5 million with his rookie deal (because 1/4 pays him that much). This year they lost their slot CB and signed D.J. Hayden for 6.5 mills per year. who in reality is a "we give you the vetmin and prove you can win this job" type of guy. Waaay overpaid. So they are paying 13 mills for a RB, who is not better than 4-5 of his classmates who earn 1 or below, and a journeyman.

 

Had them taken Marshon Lattimore instead, and put him in slot - ot put Ramsey in slot -, and drafted a RB in later rounds, then now they would have a heck of a corner who can play outside too if Ramsery or Bouye injured, and a similar serviceable to good RB depending on who they drafted insted of Fournette. And they would have to pay 7.5-8 mills for those two guys instead of 13.

 

I hear you say "but Zeke Elliot in 2016....". Well, no. :)  Imagine if they've taken Jaleen Ramsey instead of Zeke, and lets say they've taken Derrick Henry, Jordan Howard or even Alex Collins in later rounds. How would've that struggling Dallas secondary looked with Ramsey, and how much worse their running game could've been if it wasn't Zeke, but lets say Jordan Howard? Remember, Demarco Murray rushed almost 2000 yards behind that oline, then went to Philly and rushed 700 yards.

 

Positinal value is important. Team do break the rule - as they break other rules - time to time. They do other crazy stuff too. Because the pressure is huge, jobs are insecure, they must "do it now". But make no mistake, picking Zeke at 1/4 was mistake, they could just get away with it because they were lucky with Prescott.

 

Good GMs, and those, whos jobs are secure are less prone to make those mistakes. Which pays well for their respective teams in long term.

 

p.s.: Speaking of the Jaguars. The media loves them. They loved the Bucs last year and they loved the Colts in 2015 too. But make no mistake: what the Jaguars really do now is they put everything - including their middle/long term future - on one year. They go for 2018, and 2018 alone. They just don't look further. Maybe Coughlin is planning to retire next year? Or is he such flippant regarding cap management with no GM control over him? Dunno. What we know is that he has done exactly the same thing in Jacksonwille before, to move to NY and left them rot for years. Anyway, unless they will be extremely lucky by finding a hidden diamond - a true franchise QB - in later rounds, the Jags will be back to where they were in 2 years. That roster will explode like a nuclear bomb in 2 years, and Bortles wont save their ***ses.

 

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4 hours ago, needanoline63 said:

The only way Ballard can make the fans happy(or at least me) is if he drafts Saquon Barkley. Very bad off season, no offensive lineman signed either. Scary

 

...and no WRs or CBs signed either.....

 

Get ready for a 4 or 5 win season at most. 

 

 

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4 hours ago, akcolt said:

Before you get too scared I have good news for you. The off season  isn't only 3 days long. That's right put those scary pants away time for the big boy britches the off season just started. Surprise Surprise Surprise  Ballard will sign OL.  I'm afraid it's not all good news making you happy isn't at the top of Ballard's to do list. It gets worse word is irs not even on his list.  That doesn't mean we don't draft Barkley 

You do get that there isn't really any quality guards left right? Unless there's a surprise cut, they've all been signed.

Pouncey was a surprise cut, but is visiting Chargers. I'll be surprised if CB would be willing to pay what he needs to, in order to get him.

So this "Ballard will sign OL", is nonsense. The reality is that there are no quality options left to sign. It's not just a question of signing someone, but signing someone who's actually a solid above average NFL guard.

 

Drafting a RB when you have an O-line that gave up 56 sacks last season... Yeah, I'ld just rather have a guard who could be all-pro for the next 10-12 years straight.

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8 hours ago, Gigc said:

I watched Fluker a lot with the Chargers and he was NOT very good. We have better linemen on the team right now.

Remember there are scheme fits...some guys look terrible zone blocking but are good in power blocking...he might surprise you

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1 hour ago, Peterk2011 said:

 

Nothing has been thrown out the window. Just on example: Last year the Jaguars drafted Fournette at 1/4, who wasn't considered / hyped as much as Barkley is this year, but was the clear cut best prospect and most analysts put him in the top5 of last years draft. And he was good. However nothing spectacular compared to Cook, Nixon, Kamara, Hunt, etc. They now have a RB who is earning 6.5 million with his rookie deal (because 1/4 pays him that much). This year they lost their slot CB and signed D.J. Hayden for 6.5 mills per year. who in reality is a "we give you the vetmin and prove you can win this job" type of guy. Waaay overpaid. So they are paying 13 mills for a RB, who is not better than 4-5 of his classmates who earn 1 or below, and a journeyman.

 

Had them taken Marshon Lattimore instead, and put him in slot - ot put Ramsey in slot -, and drafted a RB in later rounds, then now they would have a heck of a corner who can play outside too if Ramsery or Bouye injured, and a similar serviceable to good RB depending on who they drafted insted of Fournette. And they would have to pay 7.5-8 mills for those two guys instead of 13.

 

I hear you say "but Zeke Elliot in 2016....". Well, no. :)  Imagine if they've taken Jaleen Ramsey instead of Zeke, and lets say they've taken Derrick Henry, Jordan Howard or even Alex Collins in later rounds. How would've that struggling Dallas secondary looked with Ramsey, and how much worse their running game could've been if it wasn't Zeke, but lets say Jordan Howard? Remember, Demarco Murray rushed almost 2000 yards behind that oline, then went to Philly and rushed 700 yards.

 

Positinal value is important. Team do break the rule - as they break other rules - time to time. They do other crazy stuff too. Because the pressure is huge, jobs are insecure, they must "do it now". But make no mistake, picking Zeke at 1/4 was mistake, they could just get away with it because they were lucky with Prescott.

 

Good GMs, and those, whos jobs are secure are less prone to make those mistakes. Which pays well for their respective teams in long term.

 

p.s.: Speaking of the Jaguars. The media loves them. They loved the Bucs last year and they loved the Colts in 2015 too. But make no mistake: what the Jaguars really do now is they put everything - including their middle/long term future - on one year. They go for 2018, and 2018 alone. They just don't look further. Maybe Coughlin is planning to retire next year? Or is he such flippant regarding cap management with no GM control over him? Dunno. What we know is that he has done exactly the same thing in Jacksonwille before, to move to NY and left them rot for years. Anyway, unless they will be extremely lucky by finding a hidden diamond - a true franchise QB - in later rounds, the Jags will be back to where they were in 2 years. That roster will explode like a nuclear bomb in 2 years, and Bortles wont save their ***ses.

 

You are very wrong about Leonard F. He didn’t get out to the fast start that Hunt did but he we excellent. His stats are right there with everyone you named. He deserved to be picked where he did

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57 minutes ago, Mr.Debonair said:

You are very wrong about Leonard F. He didn’t get out to the fast start that Hunt did but he we excellent. His stats are right there with everyone you named. He deserved to be picked where he did

 

You didn't get my point then. I didn't say Fournette was bad. He was fine. But he was picket at 1/4 while "everyone else" were picked in the second, third and fourth rounds. Simply because he was picked so high, he is already the 4th highest paid running back in the league, while the other guys cost nothing. That's value. Production vs price. Picking at 1/4 you expect game game changers like Jaleen Ramsey, not someone who is "right there with everone" who were picked in later rounds.

 

Let me explain positional value from a different perspective. Since 2005 these are the running backs who were drafted in the top 5:

Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams, Reggie Bush, Darren McFadden, Trent Richardson, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette.

 

Remove Fournette and Elliott, who have only 1 and 2 years of production, so no long term judgement yet. And look at the remaining list. Those remaining guys were all projected as top5, can't miss, game changer talents when drafted. Just look at that list again.

 

Then, realize, that all those great running backs of the last nearly 2 decades were all drafted outside of the top5, mostly outside ot top 15 (Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Chris Johnson, Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon) or even in the 2nd or 3rd rounds (Frank Gore, Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, etc).

 

It is what it is. If you don't honor positional value, and pick a running back so high, other GM's will laugh at you and they will go ahead and pick their franchise running backs in later rounds, and use their first picks on players of higher positional values, whos price tag (and potential impact) is higher.

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3 minutes ago, Peterk2011 said:

 

You didn't get my point then. I didn't say Fournette was bad. He was fine. But he was picket at 1/4 while "everyone else" were picked in the second, third and fourth rounds. Simply because he was picked so high, he is already the 4th highest paid running back in the league, while the other guys cost nothing. That's value. Production vs price. Picking at 1/4 you expect game game changers like Jaleen Ramsey, not someone who is "right there with everone" who were picked in later rounds.

 

Let me explain positional value from a different perspective. Since 2005 these are the running backs who were drafted in the top 5:

Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Cadillac Williams, Reggie Bush, Darren McFadden, Trent Richardson, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette.

 

Remove Fournette and Elliott, who have only 1 and 2 years of production, so no long term judgement yet. And look at the remaining list. Those remaining guys were all projected as top5, can't miss, game changer talents when drafted. Just look at that list again.

 

Then, realize, that all those great running backs of the last nearly 2 decades were all drafted outside of the top5, mostly outside ot top 15 (Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Chris Johnson, Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon) or even in the 2nd or 3rd rounds (Frank Gore, Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, DeMarco Murray, Le'Veon Bell, David Johnson, etc).

 

It is what it is. If you don't honor positional value, you will miss on someone who's positional value (a.k.a. price value and potential game impact) is higher. So you loose impact and money.

 

Ppl are making way too big a deal

about money. These teams have plenty. They can make contracts cap friendly and move money every year. This money is overblown. You cannot put a price on positions like OL, QB, and DL. Ballard so far has not improved the team or even filled holes that we have. Andrew Luck isn’t going to save this team but he will continue to get beat down

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I really wanted Chubb but there is no way we can ignore protecting luck again. had we actually signed good linemen in FA Chubb would have been fine but now you got to try and trade back a hope Nelson is still there we need him plus multiple picks early 

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35 minutes ago, Peterk2011 said:

 

You didn't get my point then. I didn't say Fournette was bad. He was fine. But he was picket at 1/4 while "everyone else" were picked in the second, third and fourth rounds. Simply because he was picked so high, he is already the 4th highest paid running back in the league, while the other guys cost nothing. That's value. Production vs price. Picking at 1/4 you expect game game changers like Jaleen Ramsey, not someone who is "right there with everone" who were picked in later rounds.

 

 

fournette is a game changer.  there was nothing to fear on the jags offense until he got there. he faced stacked boxes all year long and kept the chains moving 

 

he admitted he hit a bit of a rookie wall, but still did well in the playoffs 

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9 hours ago, Qcolts said:

I’m predicting Ballard might not pick a first rounder. It might cost too much money for the cheapskate to draft a first round pick. 

 

:wall:

 

Where is Superman hiding out at?  I might have to go hang with him for a while...

 

As far as Barkley as 1st pick, he might be as great as everyone predicts.  but therein lies the rub. He gets big bux for a rookie RB to begin, then you have to take the 5th year option at an inflated (yet still likely under market value) rate.  Then the next year he wants huge bux, so you exclusive franchise tag him  at enormous rate..  then you have to decide at his age and anount of work to let him go or pay over the top for a RB that might break down...

 

Sound familiar?

 

If you aren't in favor of (Steelers) paying Le'Veon Bell his demanded salary, you might not want Barkley for the Colts. Maybe a player that stays for over a decade at probowl level play (and earning the second contract, and maybe more) is more what I'd like to see.

 

Peter King isn't in favor of 14 million or more for Bell.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/03/07/leveon-bell-pittsburgh-steelers-contract-franchise-tag-mmqb-peter-king

 

To me, Barkley is a 5 or 6 year rental... at best.  At worst, four years of 'not worthy of the 5th year option' type play.

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28 minutes ago, Mr.Debonair said:

Ppl are making way too big a deal

about money. These teams have plenty. They can make contracts cap friendly and move money every year. This money is overblown. You cannot put a price on positions like OL, QB, and DL. Ballard so far has not improved the team or even filled holes that we have. Andrew Luck isn’t going to save this team but he will continue to get beat down

I completely agree. I understand that you don’t want to make dumb decisions & throw away your money, but the colts are in the position to build through the draft and add critical pieces in free agency. 

 

Even with trading down, Ballard would need to hit on every pick (see Banner last year) which isn’t going to happen. 

 

I think most people’s #1 priority for the last 5 years has been to address the OL, but still nothing productive is being done. 

 

I love how Ballard comes across interviews and preaches winning up front. However my concern is that so far his actions don’t match his words. 

 

Obviously the Eagles are in a different position than the colts but they clearly believe in building the OL - Lane Johnson, Jason kelce, Jason peters, Brandon brooks. Also they had negative cap space but managed to resign Bradham to a big contract, trade for Bennett, and sign Ngata. 

 

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56 minutes ago, Mr.Debonair said:

Ppl are making way too big a deal

about money. These teams have plenty. They can make contracts cap friendly and move money every year. This money is overblown. You cannot put a price on positions like OL, QB, and DL. Ballard so far has not improved the team or even filled holes that we have. Andrew Luck isn’t going to save this team but he will continue to get beat down

 

So far he hasn't. But it's the 3rd day of free agency. Don't jugde too quickly. Hankins was brough it one MONTH into the free agency.

 

Doing what the Jaguars do right now is easy. They are all in for 2018. But the price of that is, that that team will blow off in 2 years. Just look at their projected 2020 cap situation. They have 20 players signed, and those 20 players eat the WHOLE cap space already. Because they structured their contracts "cap friendly". Yeah, its cap friendly for 2018, but a cap hell for 2020. In 2 years they will have to let go most of their big name veterans, will have to swallow a ton of dead cap, and wont be able to sign a freaking yourneyman to replace them. Heck, they wont even be able to resign their own guys, Ramsey, Ngkagoue, etc. 

 

That's not what Ballard is doing. He builds for the long term. And that requires a different approach. Having 75 mills of cap space sounds a lot, but it's actually not that much. First, we will need 10 mills for the draft. Then, we will need 5-6 mills for mid season movements. Then Ballard will keep another 10-15 to sign mid-summer low cost free agents. There will be cuts later, teams will cut valuable pieces to fit under the cap after the draft, and Ballard wants leverage to go after them. Then Colts will roll some money over for next year, as they did last year, rolling over 16 mills. They do it because they are building for long term, so they will need future money to keep their own guys, who really are key pieces. Not just Hooker, but Sheard, Hankins too. They are also young, Ballard doesn't want to let them go at age 27-28, if they still produce. But he will have to pay them. So depending on how much he wants to roll over, remove let's say 15. My bet is that he wants to stockpile it a bit, so he will roll over more than he did last year, so the number will be closer or over to 20 than 15, let's just remove 15. And now, let's do the math, it's easy:

 

75-10-5-15-15 => 30. That's the money he intends to spend. He already spent 6.5 on Autry (because what he actually does, it he FRONT loads contracts a bit, so they count less against the cap next year and on, giving him more leverage). That's 28.5. Now, he has to sign: OL, TE, CB, RB, WR, etc. And fit them under 28.5 mill (let's say 30), BUT DONT BACKLOAD them because, again, we build for the long term, so we want leverage.

 

Now, lets sit down with Ryan Jensen's agent, and tell him how much we are willing to spend on him. And how long of a contract we are willing to give him. Remember, we want guys to FINISH their contracts. We don't want to cut them after two years if they play well. (Those teams who sign for 2018/2019 do not care about the 3rd or 4th year, they already know they will cut the guy. And loose on it, but they don't care because they are willing to swallow the long term loss for the price of being even a slighty better in 2018).

 

This does not justify why we did not sign Newton. We could have. Or we could have signed Jensen, etc. I just tried to put this into perspective. Ballard knows Newton or Jensen would've made this team better in 2018. But he also knows that they wouldn't have made us contenders. And their price tag might've hurt our future plans. He factored all these in his decision. Which might be right. Or wrong. He commits mistakes for sure. Everyone does. All I am saying is, I think I understand the big picture why he seem "sitting on his butt doing nothing", when he actually doesnt.

 

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48 minutes ago, aaron11 said:

fournette is a game changer.  there was nothing to fear on the jags offense until he got there. he faced stacked boxes all year long and kept the chains moving 

he admitted he hit a bit of a rookie wall, but still did well in the playoffs 

 

No, he is not. He is a good RB, but that's the most you can say about him. His 3.9 YPC is no better than acceptable. His yards after contact number is outside of the top30 (yes, one of the worst). When he had to run against a solid run defense, his numbers dropped more than Gore's numbers dropped. He shredded the Steelers and Patriots run defense in the playoffs, but those were the worst run defenses I've probably ever seen in playoffs. Every team, every RB shredded those defenses. Against the Bills, an actually admirable run defense, he rushed for 57 yards out of 21 attempts, 2.7 YPC. That's Fournette. The game changers in that Jaguars team were/are the Ramsey's, Bouye's, etc.

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