Tony Pauline: Hitchens to Colts and Norwell to Giants are "done deal"

[2006Coltsbestever]

18 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'm working on my Mock 2.0 right now. I won't have Norwell in it, but as I'm studying the FA class, especially now that the tag deadline is done, it's obvious that there are still good players at a lot of positions. DB and LB have some decent depth.

I need to do my research more on the O.Lineman because if we don't take Nelson, after that not sure who we should take in the later rounds. I really liked Price but he is now out with a serious injury.

[Superman]

3 minutes ago, stitches said:

I was listening to a podcast with Andy Benoit and I thought he made a very good point about O-line resources. He thinks overpaying for the very best of pass-protecting O-line is a waste. He thinks having a competent O-line is good enough especially if you have a pocket aware QB, because there is very marginal difference in results play by play between good/competent and pro-bowl type of pass-protection because the results are almost always identical - he thinks pancaking your defender gives you nothing additional to just keeping him away from the QB/RB but teams pay additional 5-6M for the visual of dominance when the simple "doing your job" gives you the same outcomes. 

 

It's a good point. It became obvious to me in 2008 just how important Peyton Manning was to the protection. I obviously knew it before then, but 2008 is when the OL completely fell apart, and he still only got sacked 14 times. And good scheme, play calling, hot routes, the ability to run an effective screen, etc., all play a part in that.

 

It's also why I'm not as hung up on backs who can protect as much as I am with backs who are aware of their protection assignments. Like you said, if you can just get in the way, you can do a decent enough job. I don't need a back who is going to stonewall a 250 pound blitzer. Just slow him down. I want my QB getting rid of the ball. 

 

So, in principle, I agree, at least when it comes to pass pro. I think it's a different game in run blocking, though. There is more than a 'visual of dominance' when you have people movers in the run game. That dominance wears defenses down, minimizes the need for great runners, keeps your offense on schedule, and gives you high percentage options in short yardage situations. You can scheme and manufacture good protection, but you can't fake dominant run blocking.

 

Of course, that doesn't mean you need five blue chippers up front. One of my favorite interior linemen of the last decade was Evan Mathis, third rounder. The highest paid FA OL this year is Andrew Norwell, UDFA. There are lots of good offensive linemen -- especially interior linemen, who are probably more important in the run game -- who weren't high draft picks, and who aren't very highly paid. But you have to scout well, and then coach well. The Colts haven't really done either at OL over the last decade, and the players we did happen to hit on got ruined by injury. 

 

So now, Colts fans are thirsty for good OL, and I get it. But I still believe in maximizing value. I'm hoping Ballard's front office is better at scouting OL than Chris Polian and Ryan Grigson, and I'm hoping Reich's staff is better at scheming, gameplanning, and developing talent than Pagano's. If so, we can build an OL the sustainable way. Still, it would be nice to sign a rock solid guy like Norwell... 

[Superman]

10 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I need to do my research more on the O.Lineman because if we don't take Nelson, after that not sure who would should take in the later rounds. I really liked Price but he is now out with a serious injury.

 

I still like Price, injured or not, but he's as stubby as I thought and will be much better at center than guard, and I don't want to move Kelly from center if we don't have to. He'll probably be available in the second round now that he's hurt, maybe even later because of the lack of length. I probably wouldn't take him in the second, though.

 

There are other linemen, especially tackles. Then there are some college tackles that probably need to move to guard in the NFL. Brendan Mahon from Penn State is one, he played RT and LT, but at 6'3", he lacks the length needed to play tackle in the pros. He wasn't invited to the Combine, and watching his tape, he obviously struggles to block the edge, but has good leverage and power and could move inside. He'll probably be available on Day 3. He's no Quenton Nelson, but I like him enough to have watched three full games. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

12 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

It's a good point. It became obvious to me in 2008 just how important Peyton Manning was to the protection. I obviously knew it before then, but 2008 is when the OL completely fell apart, and he still only got sacked 14 times. And good scheme, play calling, hot routes, the ability to run an effective screen, etc., all play a part in that.

 

It's also why I'm not as hung up on backs who can protect as much as I am with backs who are aware of their protection assignments. Like you said, if you can just get in the way, you can do a decent enough job. I don't need a back who is going to stonewall a 250 pound blitzer. Just slow him down. I want my QB getting rid of the ball. 

 

So, in principle, I agree, at least when it comes to pass pro. I think it's a different game in run blocking, though. There is more than a 'visual of dominance' when you have people movers in the run game. That dominance wears defenses down, minimizes the need for great runners, keeps your offense on schedule, and gives you high percentage options in short yardage situations. You can scheme and manufacture good protection, but you can't fake dominant run blocking.

 

Of course, that doesn't mean you need five blue chippers up front. One of my favorite interior linemen of the last decade was Evan Mathis, third rounder. The highest paid FA OL this year is Andrew Norwell, UDFA. There are lots of good offensive linemen -- especially interior linemen, who are probably more important in the run game -- who weren't high draft picks, and who aren't very highly paid. But you have to scout well, and then coach well. The Colts haven't really done either at OL over the last decade, and the players we did happen to hit on got ruined by injury. 

 

So now, Colts fans are thirsty for good OL, and I get it. But I still believe in maximizing value. I'm hoping Ballard's front office is better at scouting OL than Chris Polian and Ryan Grigson, and I'm hoping Reich's staff is better at scheming, gameplanning, and developing talent than Pagano's. If so, we can build an OL the sustainable way. Still, it would be nice to sign a rock solid guy like Norwell... 

I agree with most of this, Peyton and Tom Brady both have had that gift of getting rid of the ball early, so far Andrew hasn't. I am hoping now with a new OC and Reich here that our scheme changes. Andrew IMO has the ability to adapt and play any style, at least I think he does. He is very talented and high IQ'd. I agree that a team can get away with just having an Above Average Line to Good Line if the QB is in the right scheme. Our Line does need to improve though as I am not sure I would even call it Average. I would say it has proven to be Bad at times but that could also be due to scheme. I felt sorry for Brissett last season, he was getting beat up a lot.

[OhioColt]

Other than Nelson the other top OG in this year's draft to me are Will Hernandez and Isaiah Wynn.  All three legitimately could be picked in the first round.  Too many NFL teams need help with their offensive lines.  Recently read that the Cowboys are looking heavily at Will Hernandez.  Would like to see Isaiah Wynn available for us to take in Round 2 but again no guarantees. 

 

Never was high on the Colts taking Norwell or Pugh but do think we will offer players like LG Senio Kelemete from the Saints, OG/C Zach (Chiefs), RG Brandon Fusco (49ers), RT Chris Hubbard (Steelers).  As of right now RT Hubbard and LG Kelemete are my best targets and pray they both can hold the line long enough for Luck to make his throws.

 

I would pass on Butler from the Patriots and would much rather the Colts go after E.J. Gaines.  Spotrac projects a four-year, $37.5 million deal for Gaines averaging $9.3 million per season while Over The Cap is much more conservative, at roughly $25 million for four years.  We need a quality starting MLB and am on board with signing Anthony Hitchens.  I also think we could go after LILB Avery Williamson who is one of the better LILB available.  He is projected to land a 4-year deal worth $36.4 million, according to Spotrac.com (9m/year).  For RILB I like FA Todd Davis as a backup with benefits.  He is an average linebacker but more than capable of performing well enough to get us through this upcoming season.

 

Our offensive line may not be as beefed up as would had hoped for.  However by adding Chubb in the draft in Round 1 and switching to a new defensive scheme along with adding these top positional talented players of Williamson, Hitchens, and Gaines should remove talk about the Colts having one of the leagues worst defensive units.

[krunk]

Nigel Bradham from the Eagles should be a guy worth aquiring. Eagles are preparing to lose him. Great size at 6'2" 245lbs and a 4.6 40.

[krunk]

From what I can tell Hitchens is a Mike LB, but hes also played Sam and maybe even Will. Not going to totally rule out Ant Walker grabbing a starting spot. Not sure if they give Bostic his walking papers or if they plan on retaining him.

[NewColtsFan]

44 minutes ago, krunk said:

From what I can tell Hitchens is a Mike LB, but hes also played Sam and maybe even Will. Not going to totally rule out Ant Walker grabbing a starting spot. Not sure if they give Bostic his walking papers or if they plan on retaining him.

 

You may be right....    but from what I've been reading Hitchens is a WILL who filled in nicely and played the MIKE when Sean Lee was hurt.

 

What we don't know is what spot  Eberflus and Ballard want him to play....?

 

[Crunked]

If we get any marquee player at any position I think that is an encouraging report as Ballard has stated he doesn't want to buy a locker room.....so getting a marquee player you don't have to over pay to get is a win in my book. On O-line, if there were a viable RT out there that we don't have to over pay to get, I think the O-line would firm up dramatically with just that add....but filling in the G talent would still need done and could be done in later rounds of the draft...it takes the O-line sitch from defcon 5 problem down to a defcon 2 sitch with a viable RT........or however those defcon designations work lol

[krunk]

3 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

You may be right....    but from what I've been reading Hitchens is a WILL who filled in nicely and played the MIKE when Sean Lee was hurt.

 

What we don't know is what spot  Eberflus and Ballard want him to play....?

 

Pull up the film and see where he's usually attacking from. Its in the middle of the defense.

 

Also these 3 articles call him a Middle linebacker.

 

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2018/03/01/will-cowboys-linebacker-cant-re-signfree-agent-anthony-hitchens

 

 

https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2018/02/11/5-free-agents-dallas-cowboys-could-target-at-lb-could-a-4-time-all-pro-play-alongside-sean-lee

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20478655/dallas-cowboys-middle-linebacker-anthony-hitchens-need-8-weeks-recover-tibial-plateau-fracture

 

I actually believe he can play multiple positions though.

[lollygagger8]

Just pay Norwell and get Fulton from KC.. Draft another O-Lineman as well. 

 

Fix the line already. Colts QB's have taken enough beatings for long enough. 

[richard pallo]

The Dolphins are in cap hell and are currently 19m over.  They have a lot to do before 3/14.  They are considering trading their 4yr. starter at RT Juwan James who counts 9m against their cap.  They could also rescind his 5th. yr option which would make him a FA. immediately.  They are desperate.  If I were the Colts I would trade for him and not have to compete for him. It would not be a high draft pick.  They might even take a player like Clark, Haag, or Green.  He would be a huge upgrade at RT for the 9m  5th. yr. option. and he's young of course.  If I were Chris I would be calling Miami about him.  He's to good not to check out. 

[TdungyW/12]

On 3/5/2018 at 11:05 PM, stitches said:

http://draftanalyst.com/combine-notes-day-7

 

 

I am... disappointed quite honestly. I would rather have Norwell to the Colts be done deal than Hitchens... but oh well... what can you do. 

You also have to realize the giants have to re sign pugh to a deal, they can’t handle norwell and Pugh plus bring in any other help. I think norwell will want more money and the colts have more $.

[DaColts85]

38 minutes ago, TdungyW/12 said:

You also have to realize the giants have to re sign pugh to a deal, they can’t handle norwell and Pugh plus bring in any other help. I think norwell will want more money and the colts have more $.

The Giants do not have to re-sign Pugh at all.  They can let him walk and worry about Norwell and Richburg.

[TdungyW/12]

42 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

The Giants do not have to re-sign Pugh at all.  They can let him walk and worry about Norwell and Richburg.

They don’t have to but I’m sure they want to. 

[DaColts85]

2 hours ago, TdungyW/12 said:

They don’t have to but I’m sure they want to. 

Why?  Norwell is far better and has yet to miss time.  Pugh has decreased and has a back issue.

[TdungyW/12]

51 minutes ago, DaColts85 said:

Why?  Norwell is far better and has yet to miss time.  Pugh has decreased and has a back issue.

Im not disagreeing with you or arguing your point .... im just saying they have limited cap space and plenty of guys to sign. 

[boo2202]

The Giants have a little over 23 mil. If Ballard wants Norwell, he'll get him. As much as I would like Norwell to be a colt, I just don't see Ballard spending that much with so many other holes. 

[Four2itus]

On 3/6/2018 at 7:27 AM, rockywoj said:

Nelson might not get past the Broncos at 5th.

He won't. It is my opinion there is no way that Nelson makes it out of the top 5. 

[Four2itus]

On 3/6/2018 at 10:50 AM, masnerj said:

I think we need to realize that even if Norwell isn't a "done deal" to the Giants, the chances are still more that he signs elsewhere than he signs here.

 

There are quite a few teams that do have the cap space that would LOVE to sign an All-Pro guard. Not to mention, Indy isn't exactly the most attractive FA destination for most. People should realize that just because you have the money and desire for a certain player, it isn't even close to a done deal.

Bolded is conjecture. 

[richard pallo]

With Luck returning I can't imagine upgrading our OL as not being our No.1.priority.   FA, trade, or draft Ballard has to fix it.  If he loses Norwell there really isn't really a top tier OL available unless you want an older vet for a year or two and that doesn't seem like a Ballard move.  He's not afraid to trade so maybe he can find one he likes.  I'm hoping for Juwan James from Miami.  If we lose Norwell and we can't acquire a starting OL in a trade I think Nelson jumps into serious consideration at 3.  He'll try to trade back a few spots if he can but if that fails I can see him taking Nelson.  After this long journey with Luck he has to do everything he can to help him.  I know we will pick up a few OL in FA regardless.  But he needs to acquire at least one difference maker hopefully two.  I'm really hoping we get Norwell.  This is the year we overpay on a couple of blue chip players. 

[BOTT]

On 3/6/2018 at 1:50 PM, masnerj said:

I think we need to realize that even if Norwell isn't a "done deal" to the Giants, the chances are still more that he signs elsewhere than he signs here.

 

There are quite a few teams that do have the cap space that would LOVE to sign an All-Pro guard. Not to mention, Indy isn't exactly the most attractive FA destination for most. People should realize that just because you have the money and desire for a certain player, it isn't even close to a done deal.

Thanks for the heads up

[BOTT]

19 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I agree with most of this, Peyton and Tom Brady both have had that gift of getting rid of the ball early, so far Andrew hasn't. I am hoping now with a new OC and Reich here that our scheme changes. Andrew IMO has the ability to adapt and play any style, at least I think he does. He is very talented and high IQ'd. I agree that a team can get away with just having an Above Average Line to Good Line if the QB is in the right scheme. Our Line does need to improve though as I am not sure I would even call it Average. I would say it has proven to be Bad at times but that could also be due to scheme. I felt sorry for Brissett last season, he was getting beat up a lot.

That "gift" is competent offensive coordinators.

[Track Guy]

On March 6, 2018 at 11:27 AM, throwing BBZ said:

 

So be scared. We have an entire bad roster to rebuild, and each year most teams successfully rely on mid round guards to build there lines with. It will be ok.
 Good coaching and a QB that gets the ____ ball out of his hands.... you know!

 

Most teams don't rely on mid round rookie guards, though. I was told that I was a "panicked fan" last year t when I said I thought that our line was going to be bad in '17 after the draft. In retrospect I would say I was right, our line was bad last year. We'll see what happens, ultimately what you or I think won't effect what Ballard does.