The Role Of Luck In Sb Runs?

[DalTXColtsFan]

In 2009, who had been the Colts' nemeses in recent years? SD, NE, Pitt. Who did they not have to play to get to the SuperBowl? SD, NE, Pitt. Who had they absolutely OWNED in recent years? Baltimore. Who was their first PS opponent? Baltimore - at HOME.

In 2011, what had been the Pats' biggest weakness all year? Pass defense. What QBs did they face on the way to the dance? Tim Tebow and Joe Flacco.

Conversely, look at the SB runs by the Colts in 2006 or the Giants in 2011. EARNED. Both team's biggest weakness (run defense/run offense) somehow got fixed and they were just the best team week by week by week. Same thing with the Cardinals for SB43. Came together as a team at the right time and made an awesome run (couldn't beat Pittsburgh though, who also earned their road to the dance).

Other examples of titles (or appearances) clearly earned by domination vs. others helped out by some good luck?

[oldunclemark]

In 2009, who had been the Colts' nemeses in recent years? SD, NE, Pitt. Who did they not have to play to get to the SuperBowl? SD, NE, Pitt. Who had they absolutely OWNED in recent years? Baltimore. Who was their first PS opponent? Baltimore - at HOME.

In 2011, what had been the Pats' biggest weakness all year? Pass defense. What QBs did they face on the way to the dance? Tim Tebow and Joe Flacco.

Conversely, look at the SB runs by the Colts in 2006 or the Giants in 2011. EARNED. Both team's biggest weakness (run defense/run offense) somehow got fixed and they were just the best team week by week by week. Same thing with the Cardinals for SB43. Came together as a team at the right time and made an awesome run (couldn't beat Pittsburgh though, who also earned their road to the dance).

Other examples of titles (or appearances) clearly earned by domination vs. others helped out by some good luck?

I dont think you can say that a lucky team still didnt earn their title...

New England's first title came after a mis appropriation of the 'tuck rule'....certainly luck...

..but they then earned the wins to the top...

I would never say that the 2009 Colts were lucky in playing the New York Jets, the same team that eliminated them in 2010.

[shakedownstreet]

with the one & done playoff system, luck is a major factor. you see it in the ncaa tourney too.

the nba would do themselves a huge favor by adapting such a system because you would get unexpected teams advancing & winning championships more frequently

[oldunclemark]

with the one & done playoff system, luck is a major factor. you see it in the ncaa tourney too.

the nba would do themselves a huge favor by adapting such a system because you would get unexpected teams advancing & winning championships more frequently

That's why the NBA doesn't do that.

Some of us dont like Cinderella.....

[chad72]

Yes, luck is ONE of the factors on the way to a SB winning run. But not the only one.

Giants did not have to go play at the Saints where they have been mauled the last two times they played there. 49ers and Alex Smith played their best offensive game of the season, much to the chagrin of the Saints (probably because the 49ers were fresh off their bye week). Packers' rust and their OC's son dying both contributed to the Giants' lopsided win, IMO (at least the Colts fought better while losing to the Steelers on a Vandershanked FG at home while dealing with similar circumstances).

But good teams make the most out of their luck. If Eli Manning did not take the Giants down the field after that Wes Welker drop that resulted in a punt instead of at least a FG, it is all for nought. If Brady did not capitalize on the tuck rule favorable call and put AV in position to make that FG, it would be all for nought. Heck, even in our 2006 AFCCG, the Pats had a fumble recovery by an O-lineman for a TD, so did Jeff Saturday. If Peyton did not lead the Colts to a TD winning drive after Bob Sanders' missed-INT-incompletion, the stop by our D would have been for nought. Same thing happened with Ed Reed's missed-INT-incompletion vs the Pats in the AFCCG in 2011 playoffs where the Ravens' D made a stop but the Ravens could not finish the deal. Lee Evans could not secure a gimme TD and Cundiff shanked a gimme FG.

One thing I do not remember is the last time a team gave up 34 points in a playoff game and managed to win that game on the way to a winning SB run like the Colts in 2006 (though 7 of those were on Manning's pick six). You give up 34 points, 9 out of 10 times, you are dead in the playoffs. Peyton is probably one of few QBs that won 2 games in the playoffs with his team giving up 31 points (vs Chiefs in 2004) and 34 points (vs Pats in 2006) with his team forcing just 1 turnover in both games totally.

[ReMeDy]

lol since topic titles capitalize the first letter in every word, I thought you were referring to Luck the QB. No doubt though Luck the QB will play a significant role in SB runs also .

[shakedownstreet]

No doubt though Luck the QB will play a significant role in SB runs also .

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[Kenny]

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A simple, yet effective, way to take him on the bet. I like your style, sir.

[Coltsagent]

Any of you guys read Gregg Easterbrook as Tuesday Morning Quarterback on ESPN? I have really liked his stuff over the years, he just did a great piece on luck here:

http://espn.go.com/espn/page2/story/_/id/7548066/luck-plays-bigger-factor-super-bowl-life-care-admit

[ColtJ82]

Any given Sunday......

I think coaching staffs and game plans play a huge role in the post season. Any game has a certain element of luck....it is really just making the most of the opportunities that you are given.

[MAC]

I would never say that the 2009 Colts were lucky in playing the New York Jets, the same team that eliminated them in 2010.

Actually the Colts played the Jets in 2009 by virtue of their "letting" them win in the regular season. The Jets never appeared to be a match for them. Is that luck, or good planning? After the game I had arguments on the NY Times websites with fans who deduced absurdly that they were better then the Colts. It was never close, and it wouldn't have been close in 2010 either if not for the Colts incredible volume of injuries (and the Jets still barely won).

I agree that you can't say that a team that wins the super bowl did so purely by luck, but I would say that virtually every year the team that ends up winning had the benefit of playing teams that they didn't have horrible match-up problems with. Imagine what the perspective on the Colts would be now if not for running into the Chargers two years in a row. They would have very likely gotten past virtually any other playoff team in the conference, while the Chargers might NOT have gotten past anyone but the Colts.

[GoColts8818]

Well if things go the way I hope they do in the draft I hope we have a lot of "Luck" in some Super Bowls runs in the near future...

Okay bad joke.

To answer the question, teams are too good not to have some luck to get to the Super Bowl and win. That's why when a team wins you hear people say it was their year because things just broke their way.

If you don't think luck played a role in the 2006 Colts run you need to go back and look at it. We got a one demisonal KC team in the first round to build some confidence against and even had a beyond chip shot field goal missed against us in that game early. Then we got a team we own in the Ravens in the second round vs. having the play a team like the Steelers or Chargers. Speaking of the Chargers they are the team the Colts just can't beat with Peyton and they got upset (samething happened in 2009). I know the Pats were still a beast but the Colts got a home gome with a team they had beaten already that year on the road and frankly matched up much better with than the Chargers vs. a road game at a team that is to us what we are to the Ravens. Then in the Super Bowl we got to play a bad offensive team in the Bears vs. a team that might have been able to keep up with us in the Saints. I am not saying that whole run was because of luck because clearly it wasn't but we got far much better match ups in 2006 than we did in say 2003, 2004, 2005, 2007, or 2008.

Match ups sometimes are the biggest thing in a Super Bowl run and those are almost always luck. Then in games you normally have some kinda luck. Again looking at our Super Bowl anyone remember Saturday's touchdown in that game, or the drop by bug eyes, or the Reggie almost fumble? The missed field goal by the Ravens was nothing but luck. Now what I don't want to get lost in there from a Pats fan point of view is that their DB made a heck of play before that to break up a touchdown pass. You have those along the way to a Super Bowl as well so they are almost always a mix of luck and your players just making great players. IE it's just your year.

[buffalo34]

Just one thing to clarify, even if Reggie fumbles away that ball, the Colts retain possession, because there was a roughing the passer call on the Pats. Anyhow, yeah, IMO 90% of teams have luck on their side on their Super Bowl run.