What should Ballard do?

[Yoshinator]

First off, I have to apologize to JShipp.  I have looked at tape consistently today for Barkley and Chubb, and I have changed teams on this. I'm all aboard the Barkley train. Some of this comes from the fact that we don't have McDaniels anymore, but Barkley looks amazing the more I look at him. His speed and agility is awesome, his burst is fantastic, he can catch the ball, he can return the ball if need be. A true all-purpose running back. The big problem I found with Chubb is his initial burst. He has trouble breaking through initial blocks and can be slow to sack the QB. I honestly see Chubb as a possible bust candidate like Bjoern Werner, while Barkley can be like Gurley, Elliott, or Fournette. The choice is obvious to take Barkley at 3 here.

[superrep1967]

I say draft Chubb all day every day we need a quality pass rusher. I think it would be a huge mistake that could haunt this franchise for years to come. I don't know if trading down and still getting Chubb is an option but we need to draft this guy. 

[Horse Shoe Heaven]

I like Chubb at 3 or trade down and try to get Chubb latter or Nelson!!

[TdungyW/12]

We don’t need Barkley!!! DO NOT DRAFT A RB @ 3!!! 

 

We need chubb who could help our def tremendously!!! Bring in some O-line through FA, draft Chubb after trading down and getting another pick then build up our LB/ILB, get depth at Oline and find a RB in the 2/3 round. 

 

I don’t care if Barkley is elite .... Richardson was supposed to be too! NE nor philly had an elite RB .... we need pass rushers 

[Aaron86]

1 minute ago, TdungyW/12 said:

We don’t need Barkley!!! DO NOT DRAFT A RB @ 3!!! 

 

We need chubb who could help our def tremendously!!! Bring in some O-line through FA, draft Chubb after trading down and getting another pick then build up our LB/ILB, get depth at Oline and find a RB in the 2/3 round. 

 

I don’t care if Barkley is elite .... Richardson was supposed to be too! NE nor philly had an elite RB .... we need pass rushers 

I think any draft prospect has the chance of being a bust like Richardson. I really am starting to like Barkley but I won't be mad if we pick Chubb or trade back.

[TdungyW/12]

2 minutes ago, Aaron86 said:

I think any draft prospect has the chance of being a bust like Richardson. I really am starting to like Barkley but I won't be mad if we pick Chubb or trade back.

Agreed ..... I just think we would b better off as a team with Chubb! 

[VaAllDay757]

1 hour ago, jskinnz said:

 

To me, taking an interior lineman at # 3 is a waste of the draft position they hope to never find themselves in again.

No it's not you draft the best person available in the position needed most

[VaAllDay757]

3 hours ago, jshipp23 said:

Mo Wilkerson is going to be available too...He is a guy who can significantly improve our pass rush from the inside as well...If we can pull him and Ansah or Lawrence we can then focus draft on Linebackers and quickly turn our defense in a top 15 D..

No no no wilkerson has attitude problems he wouldn't fit with this team

[BOTT]

2 minutes ago, VaAllDay757 said:

No it's not you draft the best person available in the position needed most

there is a reason a guard has never (I think) gone top 3

[VaAllDay757]

1 minute ago, BOTT said:

there is a reason a guard has never (I think) gone top 3

It doesn't mean it can't happen....protect luck it's that simple

[Superman]

50 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

True but I could do a lot of what IF's. What if Barkley averages 1400 Yards for 5 seasons in a row and we win a SB for example.

 

What if "Player X" not named Barkley winds up setting league records for the next decade? 

 

You're the one peddling "what ifs." And long shot "what ifs," by the way. I don't think any back has hit 1400 yards five seasons in a row since Barry Sanders, 20 years ago. I'll spot you LaDanian Tomlinson, who had five years out of six of 1400+, with a sixth year mixed in there of over 1300. But the list of great backs who didn't come close to achieving this statistical accomplishment includes guys like Curtis Martin, Terrell Davis Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Clinton Portis, Jerome Bettis, Arian Foster, MJD, AP, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, Lesean McCoy, Tiki Barber, Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin James, Marshall Faulk (never hit 1400, surprisingly), etc. There's five MVPs in there in the last 20 years.

 

So your "what if" supposes that Barkley is going to be one of the absolute best RBs of the last 20 years, maybe of all time. It's at times like this that I feel like he's becoming somewhat overrated.

 

And to answer your "what if," if Barkley goes 1400 five years in a row, and we win a SB in there, it's most likely coincidental. Having a feature back who churns a lot of yardage isn't a cause of winning SBs. Perhaps there's a correlation, but it would be a loose one, given how many teams win SBs without relying on a feature back.

 

I'm talking about probabilities. A) The probability that Barkley goes for 1400, five years in a row, is very low.  B) The probability that he's able to maintain a high level of production beyond his first five years is low. And C) the probability that he is the missing piece that makes any team a SB contender is also low. This is based on A) the fact that no back, including the greats listed above, has done this in 20 years; B) the fact that most backs don't produce at a high level into their second contracts, and C) the fact that most SB winning teams in the last 20 years don't rely on one great back. 

 

To add to C, the teams that have won the SB in the last 10-15 years while relying on one lead back have mostly had a back that wasn't drafted in the first round, or was acquired via free agency. I think you have to go back to the Saints to find a SB winner that even rostered a first round RB, and Reggie Bush was their #3 back by yardage and carries.

 

The draft -- especially high picks in the first round -- should yield foundational players for 8-10 years. In the light of recent history and the way the game is played now, the likelihood of a RB being that player is low. Even if Barkley has a great rookie season, what about the next 7+ years? 

 

Like others have said, I have nothing against Barkley, but I don't think taking a RB at #3 is a wise use of an immensely valuable resource. We can conjure up all kinds of scenarios, but I'd rather talk about what we know to be true already.

[Aaron86]

7 minutes ago, TdungyW/12 said:

Agreed ..... I just think we would b better off as a team with Chubb! 

I can respect that. I really don't think our defense is far off the mark. With good coaching and some QB pressure O think we would have a pretty good defence.

 

I just want all the help Andrew can get and keep him from taking hits and I think with him TY and Barkley it would be a guessing game for the defenses.

[VaAllDay757]

54 minutes ago, HectorRoberts said:

The worst thing we could do is draft for need

That's been the problem for years not drafting for the real needs....we needed a free safety and got hooker....we needed a center and got kelly....ya'll think about the wrong stuff

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

What if "Player X" not named Barkley winds up setting league records for the next decade? 

 

You're the one peddling "what ifs." And long shot "what ifs," by the way. I don't think any back has hit 1400 yards five seasons in a row since Barry Sanders, 20 years ago. I'll spot you LaDanian Tomlinson, who had five years out of six of 1400+, with a sixth year mixed in there of over 1300. But the list of great backs who didn't come close to achieving this statistical accomplishment includes guys like Curtis Martin, Terrell Davis Priest Holmes, Larry Johnson, Clinton Portis, Jerome Bettis, Arian Foster, MJD, AP, Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, Matt Forte, Lesean McCoy, Tiki Barber, Shaun Alexander, Edgerrin James, Marshall Faulk (never hit 1400, surprisingly), etc. There's five MVPs in there in the last 20 years.

 

So your "what if" supposes that Barkley is going to be one of the absolute best RBs of the last 20 years, maybe of all time. It's at times like this that I feel like he's becoming somewhat overrated.

 

And to answer your "what if," if Barkley goes 1400 five years in a row, and we win a SB in there, it's most likely coincidental. Having a feature back who churns a lot of yardage isn't a cause of winning SBs. Perhaps there's a correlation, but it would be a loose one, given how many teams win SBs without relying on a feature back.

 

I'm talking about probabilities. A) The probability that Barkley goes for 1400, five years in a row, is very low.  B) The probability that he's able to maintain a high level of production beyond his first five years is low. And C) the probability that he is the missing piece that makes any team a SB contender is also low. This is based on A) the fact that no back, including the greats listed above, has done this in 20 years; B) the fact that most backs don't produce at a high level into their second contracts, and C) the fact that most SB winning teams in the last 20 years don't rely on one great back. 

 

To add to C, the teams that have won the SB in the last 10-15 years while relying on one lead back have mostly had a back that wasn't drafted in the first round, or was acquired via free agency. I think you have to go back to the Saints to find a SB winner that even rostered a first round RB, and Reggie Bush was their #3 back by yardage and carries.

 

The draft -- especially high picks in the first round -- should yield foundational players for 8-10 years. In the light of recent history and the way the game is played now, the likelihood of a RB being that player is low. Even if Barkley has a great rookie season, what about the next 7+ years? 

 

Like others have said, I have nothing against Barkley, but I don't think taking a RB at #3 is a wise use of an immensely valuable resource. We can conjure up all kinds of scenarios, but I'd rather talk about what we know to be true already.

I said average 1400 Yards for 5 seasons in a row/not 5 in row with over 1400, that could mean 1200/1800 = 1 break out year/1400/1300/1300 = 1400 on average. Emmitt Smith actually has done it as well between 1991-95. I do think Barkley will be one if the best of all-time so that is why I think like I am thinking.

[lance_m8]

Running back is not a huge problem on this team it is protecting luck and getting to the quarterback taking barkley helps neither and we are still the same colts scraping for an 8-8 season with the same probems we have had for years or we take nelson or chubb which fills a need and hit on norwell in FA all of a sudden we have top 10 talent in our O-Line with a good run stopping D-Line with a few young pass rushers in Basham and Ansah in FA or Chubb in draft. We easily could grab a top 5 RB in the middle of the draft to pair with mack we do not need a standout #1 Rb we are going to do a more RBC type look like the FAlcons and Eagles so taking Barkley is a terrible move unless we strike absolute gold in FA with Norwell Hitchens and Ansah

[lance_m8]

Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I said average 1400 Yards for 5 seasons in a row/not 5 in row with over 1400, that could mean 1200/1800 = 1 break out year/1400/1300/1300 = 1400 on average. Emmitt Smith actually has done it as well between 1991-95. I do think Barkley will be one if the best of all-time so that is why I think like I am thinking.

He hasn't even taken a snap in the NFL pump the breaks on best of all time then again I am bias because I dont like the fact we have a chance to take him if we were picking in the 15-18 spots I would be praising him

[Superman]

3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I said average 1400 Yards for 5 seasons in a row/not 5 in row with over 1400, that could mean 1200/1800 = 1 break out year/1400/1300/1300 = 1400 on average. Emmitt Smith actually has done it as well between 1991-95. I do think Barkley will be one if the best of all-time so that is why I think like I am thinking.

 

I don't think that changes the list. It definitely doesn't change the point. 

 

To your last line, if you set aside your very optimistic but probably unreasonable projection of Barkley, you'll be able to think about this in terms of likelihood, not "what ifs." 

[2006Coltsbestever]

3 minutes ago, lance_m8 said:

He hasn't even taken a snap in the NFL pump the breaks on best of all time then again I am bias because I dont like the fact we have a chance to take him if we were picking in the 15-18 spots I would be praising him

I said one of the best, not the best. People need to read my Posts more closely before responding.

[Yoshinator]

I also think Barkley is becoming a need as well as the BPA. I don't think Luck is going to be able to carry this team like we once thought. We need Barkley to take the pressure off of him. He has never had a good running game. If Ballard wants too, he can offer the most money to Norwell, and draft another high O-Lineman in the draft. I think if we draft Chubb, we will regret it. He's slow against initial blocks, and it shows on game tape. Might be the worst thing for a pass rusher. Would prefer Barkley, and trading down for Nelson as the backup plan.

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't think that changes the list. It definitely doesn't change the point. 

 

To your last line, if you set aside your very optimistic but probably unreasonable projection of Barkley, you'll be able to think about this in terms of likelihood, not "what ifs." 

Well I think he has a chance to being an all-time Great. You may not? Do I think Chubb does? No, You may? If I thought Chubb was Reggie White like, I would be on here shouting that Chubb would end up with 200 Sacks or so when his career ends.

[2006Coltsbestever]

6 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't think that changes the list. It definitely doesn't change the point. 

 

To your last line, if you set aside your very optimistic but probably unreasonable projection of Barkley, you'll be able to think about this in terms of likelihood, not "what ifs." 

It changes the whole narrative IMO because I never once thought Barkley would gain over 1400 Yards 5 seasons in a row. That never happens as you even said. I said average and that is possible.

[jshipp23]

4 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I also think Barkley is becoming a need as well as the BPA. I don't think Luck is going to be able to carry this team like we once thought. We need Barkley to take the pressure off of him. He has never had a good running game. If Ballard wants too, he can offer the most money to Norwell, and draft another high O-Lineman in the draft. I think if we draft Chubb, we will regret it. He's slow against initial blocks, and it shows on game tape. Might be the worst thing for a pass rusher. Would prefer Barkley, and trading down for Nelson as the backup plan.

I see the same thing with Chubb...He can get by with it in college because he is strong and has great technique, but I fear he might be a step slow in the NFL ..I prefer pass rusher to have elite burst especially picking him that high...

[Coltfreak]

I'm just glad there's another thread covering the exact same thing as the 10 previous.    

 

Question.  Are we suppose to start a Chubb or Barkley thread every 2 days or 3?

[2006Coltsbestever]

Players that have averaged over 1400 Yards in a 5 year span just off the top of my head are:

Eric Dickerson from 1983-1987

Emmitt Smith from 1991-1995

Barry Sanders from 1994-1998

LT even did it from 2001-2005

Terrell Davis did it in a 4 year span from 1995-1998, he got injured in 1999 otherwise that would've been another.

- That is just off the top of my head. Had James not got injured he would've probably done it as well. I just think Barkley has the potential to do so, we will see. Like I said I could be wrong.

[Yoshinator]

5 minutes ago, Coltfreak said:

I'm just glad there's another thread covering the exact same thing as the 10 previous.    

 

Question.  Are we suppose to start a Chubb or Barkley thread every 2 days or 3?

3 is the norm, but 2 would be preferable.

[2006Coltsbestever]

6 minutes ago, Coltfreak said:

I'm just glad there's another thread covering the exact same thing as the 10 previous.    

 

Question.  Are we suppose to start a Chubb or Barkley thread every 2 days or 3?

About like people starting an Andrew Luck Thread every other day that he's done and his arm is falling off  

[ÅÐØNϧ 1]

4 hours ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

 

I wish "Thank You" counted for twice the "Like" value.  Anyways, Thank You.

 

We need to draft either Barkley, Chubb, or Nelson.  If Ballard manages to make my dreams come true and acquire two of those three...

 

Anyone that complains about any of those three is clinically trolling.  Anyone that complains if we draft one of those three...

 

I disagree  if Chris Ballard  trades down we may not get any of them but still get quality players .

  I 'm all for it if 1 of these players are available   But if not it is what it is man ..

What does clinical trolling mean ?

[ÅÐØNϧ 1]

3 hours ago, Lucky Colts Fan said:

This ^.

 

The Colts have the opportunity to draft one of three "can't-miss" players.  No matter what, Barkley, Chubb, or Nelson will be available to the Colts at #3.  It's possible to trade-down and still get one of them, if the cards play out right.

 

The question is, do you pull the trigger, or try to trade-down and still try and get your player?

Was'nt RG3 a can't miss player & Ricky Williams & Ryan Leaf ???

[jshipp23]

22 minutes ago, ÅÐØNϧ 1 said:

Was'nt RG3 a can't miss player & Ricky Williams & Ryan Leaf ???

Ricky Williams is 30th all-time in rushing and had some good years.. He is ahead of guys liks Clinton Portis and Marshawn Lynch, I would hardly say he was a bust, or mention him with Leaf or Griffin 111....

[WoolMagnet]

Run for the hills!

[ColtsBlitz]

2 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

True but I could do a lot of what IF's. What if Barkley averages 1400 Yards for 5 seasons in a row and we win a SB for example.

This can be used with Chubb in a similar game-changing context, like a strip sack against the Pats or a playoff team to win the game. Theoreticals are great, but I want to see combine performances and then BPA all day. 

[ÅÐØNϧ 1]

2 hours ago, esmort said:

 

It's  a discussion about the value of a RB. Only natural that Trich would be brought up as a comparison. The fact it was done by Grigson was never really even an issue in this conversation until you brought it up. 

 

Marshal Faulk   Edgerrin James      are they worthy comparisons on Colts first rd picks for RB .

I'v heard this argument so many times on these thread over the ill fated T- Rich trade .

So many say no not in the first rd theres plenty of value in later rounds & thats true there are no guarantees in life & especially in sports .

 

IMO if the GM is convinced that a particular player is exactly who he feels can best help my team then get him .

 

The Colts have many well documented 1'st rd busts but they also have hit home runs .

 

Peyton Manning - Ryan Leaf 

 

Edgerrin James - Ricky Williams 

 

Andrew Luck - RG3 

 

I hope we get best available according to the Colts board & I do not care if its O line - D line  or a RB 

[ÅÐØNϧ 1]

1 hour ago, indyagent17 said:

 the only concern I have with drafting Barkley is we have to have a decent offensive line to create holes for him to run through. I know he has Elite status but with poor blocking it makes even the best running back look poor

 

It does'nt matter because IMO its in the past 1 thing we all can be sure of is this new coaching staff will IMO hit the ground running making that O-line a #1 priority it has been our Achilles Heel long enough its a glaring weakness ask the blind man he saw see it too ..

[Crunked]

If IF's and but's were candy and nuts.....words, words, words......

 

In the don't let facts get in your way dept. : We haven't had pass rush since 2013. We need DB's since we let Davis go, and even if we re-sign Desir and Melvin, and with Quincy, and TJ and Hariston......still not strong enough....we need some LB'ers somewhere between 2-4 of those jokers......we need O-Line....have you seen our O-line? We need another TE to flank Doyle / give us formation flexibility.....we need a wide out Moncrief or otherwise so TY ain't a one trick pony......and then, and then..........and.......then.......wouldn't it be nice, once all that is done,  to have a stud RB?

[ÅÐØNϧ 1]

54 minutes ago, Coltfreak said:

I'm just glad there's another thread covering the exact same thing as the 10 previous.    

 

Question.  Are we suppose to start a Chubb or Barkley thread every 2 days or 3?

 

Welcome to the off season where Dead Horses come to get beat .

 

Why not every day I get a thread you get a thread everybody gets a thread ..

[Tracy Denton]

5 minutes ago, Crunked said:

If IF's and but's were candy and nuts.....words, words, words......

 

In the don't let facts get in your way dept. : We haven't had pass rush since 2013. We need DB's since we let Davis go, and even if we re-sign Desir and Melvin, and with Quincy, and TJ and Hariston......still not strong enough....we need some LB'ers somewhere between 2-4 of those jokers......we need O-Line....have you seen our O-line? We need another TE to flank Doyle / give us formation flexibility.....we need a wide out Moncrief or otherwise so TY ain't a one trick pony......and then, and then..........and.......then.......wouldn't it be nice to have a stud RB?

Here is an interesting fact, We had the same amount of sacks last year as 2006 SB win.

[2006Coltsbestever]

41 minutes ago, ÅÐØNϧ 1 said:

 

I disagree  if Chris Ballard  trades down we may not get any of them but still get quality players .

  I 'm all for it if 1 of these players are available   But if not it is what it is man ..

What does clinical trolling mean ?

Going to the ol Clinic and being diagnosed as a Troll  

[ÅÐØNϧ 1]

34 minutes ago, jshipp23 said:

Ricky Williams is 30th all-time in rushing and had some good years.. He is ahead of guys liks Clinton Portis and Marshawn Lynch, I would hardly say he was a bust, or mention him with Leaf or Griffin 111....

 

I would he was'nt worth the Saints whole Draft & he looked hideous in his wedding gown IMO .

[lance_m8]

53 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Players that have averaged over 1400 Yards in a 5 year span just off the top of my head are:

Eric Dickerson from 1983-1987

Emmitt Smith from 1991-1995

Barry Sanders from 1994-1998

LT even did it from 2001-2005

Terrell Davis did it in a 4 year span from 1995-1998, he got injured in 1999 otherwise that would've been another.

- That is just off the top of my head. Had James not got injured he would've probably done it as well. I just think Barkley has the potential to do so, we will see. Like I said I could be wrong.

So out of the 1000s of Running Backs to play in the NFL you thought of 5 and you are already trying to put a guy who hasn't played a down of NFL football into a category of Golden Jackets wearers

[2006Coltsbestever]

I am done here, this is getting stupid. Go Colts.