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“Don’t pick a WR round 1, no matter what.”


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This is a little iffy.  Last year was all over the place, but of the league's leaders in receiving in 2016, 3 of the top 4 were first round picks (Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham).  In 2015, the top 8 WRs in receiving yards were Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Jarvis Landry, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, Demaryius Thomas, and Odell Beckham.  That's 5 first round picks and a 2nd round pick.  RBs don't replicate these trends, as far as I've seen.

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Recency bias, among other issues. Go back another three years and this looks significantly different. It's also premature to judge a lot of these players, especially from the 2017 class. There are other factors that affect WR performance as well.

 

But if the argument is that drafting a receiver in the first round isn't producing like it used to, that's obvious. But I don't think that argument equals 'don't draft a receiver in the first round.' 

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41 minutes ago, 21isSuperman said:

This is a little iffy.  Last year was all over the place, but of the league's leaders in receiving in 2016, 3 of the top 4 were first round picks (Mike Evans, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham).  In 2015, the top 8 WRs in receiving yards were Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Jarvis Landry, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandon Marshall, Demaryius Thomas, and Odell Beckham.  That's 5 first round picks and a 2nd round pick.  RBs don't replicate these trends, as far as I've seen.

This is all true. I just figured I would throw this info out there. Really every draft is different and could bring about different talents at different positions. I just thought this trend was interesting and posted it to show we could get talent in the later rounds at WR. This year round 3 seems like a good spot for us to take one should the right player fall. 

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If you trust your scouting this shouldn't stop you from drafting a WR in the first if you think he's a game changer. This is a very small sample and as others have said the last year's draft is still too fresh for any conclusions about it. WR is actually still among the most valued positions in the league thus their positional value shouldn't be stopping you from drafting one in the first either. 

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That is an ugly list but about half dozen guys have had their careers hurt/ruined by injuries. 2007-2014 had about as many busts as the last 3 years look to have. Still not 100% convinced it's a trend but I do believe it makes more sense to invest in WRs via FA than the draft with high picks, unless you really, really like the guy. It usually takes an year or two until they really hit their stride and FA busts when it comes to WRs is more rare than it is with other positions.

 

WR market exploding (if Adams contract is the new norm for about 1000 yard receivers) might change my opinion.

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