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Who's going to bend well at the combine?


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I get fascinated by a simple formula. I believe that Bill Polian lived by a formula similar to this. It's called the Explosive Edge Rushers formula and it's simple but very effective in predicting the next great pass rushers. Only 42 Edge Rushers since 1999 have made this list, and most of them have gone on to have exceptional NFL careers. Who's going to bend this year?

 

I am predicting that Harold Landry will make the list for 2018. It would kind of be surprising if he doesn't make it. I will also predict that Ogbonnia Okoronkwo makes the list as well. Keep an eye on him because he is a sleeper. Joe Ostman is my sleeper this year, and I think he has a good chance to make the list. Arden Key might be able to pull it off. Chad Thomas is another who could make the list. I think Bradley Chubb has an outside chance and if he does then it will be an impressive accomplishment, because he is a bigger guy. 

 

Just about every year, we see would-be late round picks move up and get drafted higher, because they make this list. 

 

2017 Explosive Edge Rushers

2018 Explosive Edge Rushers

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21 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

I think Bradley Chubb has an outside chance and if he does then it will be an impressive accomplishment, because he is a bigger guy. 

 

I'd be shocked if Chubb runs a 4.7 40. I see him having similar workout numbers to Derek Barnett, with maybe a better vertical and broad jump. 

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27 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I'd be shocked if Chubb runs a 4.7 40. I see him having similar workout numbers to Derek Barnett, with maybe a better vertical and broad jump. 

 

I actually compare him to Derek Barnett, only about a step faster. 

 

Derek bent a lot better than I thought he would last year though. I think you and I even discussed it at the time. 

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32 minutes ago, BProland85 said:

Is Harold Landry being looked at as a mid 1st round guy or late 1st/early 2nd? I’ve seen him projected at both honestly and if Ballard chooses to go the Quenton Nelson route round 1 I’d love having Landry in the 2nd. 

 

Right now I see him going anywhere from 15 to 40. He is a little undersized, and I think his size could make some teams wait to take him a bit later. He has the talent though. 

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4 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I actually compare him to Derek Barnett, only a tad bit faster. 

 

Derek bent a lot better than I thought he would last year though. I think you and I even discussed it at the time. 

 

If Chubb compares to a slightly faster version of Barnett, then I want no part of him in the top 8 or so picks. 

 

If he compares to a faster version of Joey Bosa which I’ve also heard, then sign me up. 

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1 minute ago, BProland85 said:

 

If Chubb compares to a slightly faster version of Barnett, then I want no part of him in the top 8 or so picks. 

 

If he compares to a faster version of Joey Bosa which I’ve also heard, them sign me up. 

 

The Colts had Derek ranked very high on the big board last year. 

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4 hours ago, BProland85 said:

 

If Chubb compares to a slightly faster version of Barnett, then I want no part of him in the top 8 or so picks. 

 

If he compares to a faster version of Joey Bosa which I’ve also heard, then sign me up. 

 

What's wrong with Barnett? Especially style-wise... The knock on Barnett was a lack of elite athleticism and a questionable motor. I don't think Chubb has either of those issues. 

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I think Harold Landry has the best bend in this class and I expect him to test really well athletically. 

 

I expect Chubb to be somewhere between Bosa and Barnett. The closer to Bosa he is, the more comfortable I will be picking him top 5. 

 

Kemoko Turay IMO is the sleeper to kill the combine and jump up the draft boards. 

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5 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I'd be shocked if Chubb runs a 4.7 40. I see him having similar workout numbers to Derek Barnett, with maybe a better vertical and broad jump. 

Is there a testing outcome for Chubb that would discourage you from drafting him in the top 5? Barnett actually tested really well in the 3cone. I put close to zero weight on the 40 for pass rushers. IMO the agility and explosiveness measurements are much more important... 

 

3-cone

20 shuttle

10 yard split

broad jump 

vertical jump

 

Those are the ones I really want to see. Anything under 7 for the 3 cone is great. Anything under 4.4 in the shuttle is good. The 10 yard splits are somewhat unofficial so I would take it with a grain of salt but anything under 1.70 is great. 

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9 minutes ago, stitches said:

Is there a testing outcome for Chubb that would discourage you from drafting him in the top 5? Barnett actually tested really well in the 3cone. I put close to zero weight on the 40 for pass rushers. IMO the agility and explosiveness measurements are much more important... 

 

3-cone

20 shuttle

10 yard split

broad jump 

vertical jump

 

Those are the ones I really want to see. Anything under 7 for the 3 cone is great. Anything under 4.4 in the shuttle is good. The 10 yard splits are somewhat unofficial so I would take it with a grain of salt but anything under 1.70 is great. 

 

I agree with all of that. I think they all combine to give an indication of a player's explosiveness. An outstanding 40 time is good, a terrible 40 time is bad. Barnett, for instance, had unimpressive broad jump and vertical jump numbers, a pretty slow 40, decent shuttle and 10 yard split, but a really good 3 cone. He weighed in at 259, so his slow 40 and 'meh' jumps were concerns. Still would have taken him at #15... 

 

Chubb at 275-ish can run a slow 40, but I think he'll do better than 4.88. I think he'll jump pretty well. If he does poorly in the 3 cone -- 7.25 or worse -- I'll have a problem. The rest of it, I think he'll be satisfactory, if not pretty good. I think his explosiveness is evident on tape, but I do wonder about his bend. I wouldn't want a stiff pass rusher at #3.

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9 hours ago, Superman said:

 

What's wrong with Barnett? Especially style-wise... The knock on Barnett was a lack of elite athleticism and a questionable motor. I don't think Chubb has either of those issues. 

 

Let's wait and see if Chubb shows elite athleticism at the combine. If he does then I'm all on board with taking him at 3. I think Barnett's ceiling is only so high though. There was a reason he fell to the mid 1st round and wasn't taken top 5. He's a good pass rusher, but I'm not sure if I see him being dominant and All-Pro level like top 3 drafted players should be is all.

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I like Pat Kirwan's explosion formula-

 

[BENCH PRESS REPS + VERTICAL JUMP + BROAD JUMP = EXPLOSION NUMBER]

 

The bench press seems to be missing from most other explosion index ratings, and I feel it is important.

 

Be great to run athletes through all the formulas and seem the common differences, and which is m ost consistent highlighting the explosive players.

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  • 4 weeks later...

 

Not calling you out man....

 

BUT, :D I didn't even expect Chubb to run a 4.66 40. It is an unofficial time, so I am not saying much until the official time rolls in. 

 

WOW!

 

 

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On 2/2/2018 at 8:25 PM, Superman said:

 

I'd be shocked if Chubb runs a 4.7 40. I see him having similar workout numbers to Derek Barnett, with maybe a better vertical and broad jump. 

Somebody check on this guy....he may have had a heart attack.

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On 2/2/2018 at 7:25 PM, Superman said:

 

I'd be shocked if Chubb runs a 4.7 40. I see him having similar workout numbers to Derek Barnett, with maybe a better vertical and broad jump. 

 

It is officially a 4.65. :D 

 

Someone get the paddles for Superman. CLEAR! 

 

:) 

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3 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

 

It is officially a 4.65. :D 

 

Someone get the paddles for Superman. CLEAR! 

 

:) 

 

Yeah, I'm pleasantly surprised by the 40 time. But equally disappointed by the 3 cone, so it's kind of a wash.

 

Good 40 and broad jump, though. He's shown himself to be more athletic than Bosa and Barnett, though not quite as bendy. 

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4 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Yeah, I'm pleasantly surprised by the 40 time. But equally disappointed by the 3 cone, so it's kind of a wash.

 

Good 40 and broad jump, though. He's shown himself to be more athletic than Bosa and Barnett, though not quite as bendy. 

 

I agree. Completely backwards from what most people expected. 

 

I don't want to have any single drill make up my mind, but I am drifting (even further than I was) away from taking Chubb at No 3. overall. It doesn't do us much good to take an Edge player who excels at run defense, but cannot get after the quarterback.

 

I am all in on Barkley, or we trade back!

 

Preferably we trade back and get a ransom. Hopefully the draft falls in one of the many ways that we could cash in. 

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1 minute ago, BlueShoe said:

 

I agree. Completely backwards from what most people expected. 

 

I don't want to have any single drill make up my mind, but I am drifting (even further than I was) away from taking Chubb at No 3. overall. It doesn't do us much good to take an Edge player who excels at run defense, but cannot get after the quarterback.

 

I am all in on Barkley, or we trade back!

 

Preferably we trade back and get a ransom. 

 

I disagree with the idea that he can't get after the QB. He's still an elite edge rush prospect.

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Just now, Superman said:

 

I disagree with the idea that he can't get after the QB. He's still an elite edge rush prospect.

 

Possibly, but typically that number holds true. 

 

While it is not the tell-all sign, I am only willing to bet on the side that is usually right. 

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2 minutes ago, BlueShoe said:

 

Possibly, but typically that number holds true. 

 

While it is not the tell-all sign, I am only willing to bet on the side that is usually right. 

 

I think 3 cone is very important, but an unimpressive result doesn't outweigh the results from all the other testing. And there are plenty of very productive edge rushers who weren't impressive in the 3 cone. 

 

I expected a better result from Chubb because I saw plenty of bend on his tape. 

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5 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think 3 cone is very important, but an unimpressive result doesn't outweigh the results from all the other testing. And there are plenty of very productive edge rushers who weren't impressive in the 3 cone. 

 

I expected a better result from Chubb because I saw plenty of bend on his tape. 

 

That is going to be a difference of opinion. 

 

I think about this the way Bill Polian used to. Sure, he missed on some guys. But much more often than not, Polian was right to pass. The percentages do not lie. 

 

I would never take an edge rusher with a 7.37, 3-Cone at No. 3 overall. Too big of a risk!

 

Right now, Nelson is a MUCH safer prospect at No. 3, but it's too soon to take Nelson, because of the dynamics at quarterback that will likely play out. Too much value at No. 3. I think we have 2 choices now. We either take Saquon Barkley at No. 3 overall OR we trade back. 

 

But that is also what I said we would do back in week 16 of the 2017 season. I saw this playing out this way back then. :D 

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3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I think 3 cone is very important, but an unimpressive result doesn't outweigh the results from all the other testing. And there are plenty of very productive edge rushers who weren't impressive in the 3 cone. 

 

I expected a better result from Chubb because I saw plenty of bend on his tape. 

Lots of players play better than they test in drills. In game conditions, adrenaline is pumping, and there's a live "target" with the ball in his hand. There just isn't a good way to simulate that with bags and cones. These events in the combine are simply confirmation of a prospect's athleticism. The more important evaluations are already in from the scouts and from game tape. From the limited amount of full-game tape I've seen on Chubb he's quick and agile enough, but more importantly, he's relentless. 

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