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Jacksonville (+7.5) at New England (1-21-18)


oldunclemark

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3:05 EST...  Jim Nantz, Tony Romo and Tracy Wolfson on CBS

..Low 40s and no rain at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough,,over-under at 45.5

 

"Big Mistake" Blake Bortles avoided the big mistake last week hitting a mediocre 14 of 26 for 214 yards..but not throwing any interceptions,.

RB Leonard Fournette carried 25 times for 109 yards and 3 TDs....Jax was 8-of-14 on 3rd down last week

They face a Patriot defense which held Tennessee to 267 yards last week and sacked Marcus Mariotta eight times..

NE old timer 'Shady' Tom Brady smoked Tennessee last week for 35 of 53 for 337 yards passing.....and 31 first downs

WR Danny Amendola caught 11 passes last week for 112 yards

He'll face the Jax 'Million Dollar Defense' which got jacked up last week for 540 yards and 42 points at Pittsburgh.

 

  A lot of people think Jacksonville matches up well here with (possibly) top corner Jalen Ramsey on NE tight end Rob Gronkowksi

Jax was 2nd in the NFL with 51 QB sacks but they couldn't stop Pittsburgh's Ben Rothlisberger last week.

Brady hurt his hand in practice during the week but I'm not taking that seriously. 

 

The spread down. It was 9.5 early in the week before Brady got 'hurt'

the question you have to ask is: Do you think Jax can win or do you just wish theyd win?

In the last 4 week's Jacksonville's so-called great defense has given up 44 points at San Francisco and 42 points at Pittsburgh.

 

Its a down year in the AFC when Jacksonville (12-6) is in the conference finals.  I thought their win at Pittsburgh was somewhat of a fluke.

How many TD passes do the Jaguars have to give up before somebody says they might have some weakness in the secondary.

I honestly think the Patriots could beat Jacksonville with Brian Hoyer at QB

 

7 1/2 is a lot but if Jacksonville was playing New England in September..the spread would be even higher and we'd all be looking for another game to watch.

No truth to the rumor that MInneosta is considering cancelling the Super Bowl if Jacksonville is in it.

 

Take the 'under' here. Even if the Pats score 31.....you need 2 TDs out of Bortles and that's like wishing you could fly 

 

 

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I wont bash the Jags too much as they are in the Final 4 now. So I will say 27-20 Patriots as Jags keep it close, they do have a solid Defense. In the end Tom Brady isn't losing at Foxboro to Blake Bortles with a SB berth on the line though. I have a friendly bet with a friend of mine and gave up 6.5 and took the Pats. 7.5 may be too much? I see a Pats vs Vikings SB on the horizon!

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11 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I wont bash the Jags too much as they are in the Final 4 now. So I will say 27-20 Patriots as Jags keep it close, they do have a solid Defense. In the end Tom Brady isn't losing at Foxboro to Blake Bortles with a SB berth on the line though. I have a friendly bet with a friend of mine and gave up 6.5 and took the Pats. 7.5 may be too much? I see a Pats vs Vikings SB on the horizon!

CBE, you are a reasonable guy. A question.

Jax gave up 44 points four weeks ago at SF and 42 (and 5 TD passes) last week at Pitt.

 

If anybody else did that, we'd question how good their defense is going into NE, wouldn't we?.

Isnt it just that we HOPE Jacksonville wins...folks dont really believe it, do they?

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26 minutes ago, oldunclemark said:

CBE, you are a reasonable guy. A question.

Jax gave up 44 points four weeks ago at SF and 42 (and 5 TD passes) last week at Pitt.

 

If anybody else did that, we'd question how good their defense is going into NE, wouldn't we?.

Isnt it just that we HOPE Jacksonville wins...folks dont really believe it, do they?

I would love to see Jacks win. My friendly bet isn't for much so if I lose I would be ok with it just to see the Pats lose haha. The reality of it is this, I think Pats win by at least 7 and I give the Jags about a 25% chance of winning out right. 75% for the Pats. When we played them in 2014, I felt the same way. I figured we would lose as well and we got smoked!

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The Jags were in 3rd gear for a couple of weeks at the end whether it was on purpose (2004 Eagles) or not (2009 Vikings). Those games are in the history book for statistical reasons, nothing more, and they're not indicitave of the 2017 Jags legacy. The Jags are real and the can beat the Pats. Yes that still leaves the Steelers game but everybody has already forgot that they didn't just beat the Steelers, they swept them aka beat them twice. They bashed their skulls in the first game, and beat them in the second even though the Steelers gave them a run for their money. Did everybody really think the Steelers weren't going to get their shots into that defense? Or perhaps...I dunno...win? The best defenses give up a big play or 7 in this era. They beat the Steelers all up and down the field besides the big plays, not all of which they gave up just some.

 

It's hard to sweep anybody in the NFL who isn't a bottom dwelling division rival. Heck we've seen blowouts in week 17 elimination games by 1 team, then the other in a rematch the following week in the WC game.

 

I still think if they blitz up the middle they can not only beat Brady, but break him like the Seahawks did Peyton. I don't necessarily mean send all the dogs on every play, but if it doesn't look good by the 3rd QTR, send some guys up the middle and take out his safety valves in the process. 

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44-20 Patriots will be the final. Have zero confidence in the Jags' D as the Steelers put 42 on them last week and the 49ers put 44 on them a month ago. Belichick's gameplan will be pretty easy as he'll just take the run away and make Bortles beat them. Probably not watching this game so there's my prediction.

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1 minute ago, buffalo34 said:

44-20 Patriots will be the final. Have zero confidence in the Jags' D as the Steelers put 42 on them last week and the 49ers put 44 on them a month ago. Probably not watching this game so there's my prediction.

You never know about the Pats, if they get hot it could get ugly. They killed us in 2014 and killed Pitt in 2016.

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1 hour ago, buffalo34 said:

44-20 Patriots will be the final. Have zero confidence in the Jags' D as the Steelers put 42 on them last week and the 49ers put 44 on them a month ago. Belichick's gameplan will be pretty easy as he'll just take the run away and make Bortles beat them. Probably not watching this game so there's my prediction.

 

I think they'll follow the 49ers blueprint. Lot of pre-snap motion, heavy personnel, play-action, lot of passes to RBs/Gronk etc.

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You obviously can't stop the Patriots offense all the way. I think they'll move the ball. But I don't think they'll score redzone TDS. I feel like getting a smaller space to with, with that speedy Jaguars defense will result in Fgs. 

 

Blake just has to take what he can get. He's athletic, if you don't have pure confidence in your throw, just run it bro. Keep the clock rolling.

 

I wanna see the defense light everyone up. Like the Seahawks lit up broncos Wrs

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Not having a horse in the race I guess I'm just hoping for good games. I think the games last weekend will be hard to top.

 

Having said that, I'm pulling for the Jags and the Vikings!   Loved both of their wins last weekend.  

 

 

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6 minutes ago, shakedownstreet said:

Bortles had a pretty good game last week, which likely indicates he will stink up the joint today

 

Go Jags! O.o

Lol while I do agree. I'm just entirely sure 14/26  214 is decent hahaha I'm gonna help him and us out and say that wasn't good. 

 

Now throw for 300 today bro!:cheer2:

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1 hour ago, Chrisaaron1023 said:

Lol while I do agree. I'm just entirely sure 14/26  214 is decent hahaha I'm gonna help him and us out and say that wasn't good. 

 

Now throw for 300 today bro!:cheer2:

Blake Bortles has the most to gain today.

He can go from chump to champ

From zero to hero..

 

.....From Jay Cutler clone..to the the king on his throne

 

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Everybody is forgetting that the Jags had a ton of 3rd down completions, many of which Bortles ran for. The Jags caught the Steelers off guard with a ton of playaction early. Bill had that snubbed after 30 seconds of film this week so I hope the Jags aren't betting on that again. I would do some misdirection and some flips early so that they're running the ball but not playing Martyball. Then as soon as the Pats adjust do a double reverse or the wildcat! It worked for the Dolphins!

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  • 7 minutes ago, BloodyChamp said:

    Everybody is forgetting that the Jags had a ton of 3rd down completions, many of which Bortles ran for. The Jags caught the Steelers off guard with a ton of playaction early. Bill had that snubbed after 30 seconds of film this week so I hope the Jags aren't betting on that again. I would do some misdirection and some flips early so that they're running the ball but not playing Martyball. Then as soon as the Pats adjust do a double reverse or the wildcat! It worked for the Dolphins!

    Bortles will pick up a few big conversions with his legs.. he's pretty athletic.

 

I just wonder how the Jags will respond 40 5 yard outs and button hooks. It only takes a few of those before it drives a team crazy lol

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