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csmopar

Draft pick position and success rate

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Was doing some research and found this: Seems pretty accurate.

 

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

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Be sure to take your DB in the 7th instead of the 6th; grab a TE in the 6th insteadhaha.

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2 hours ago, csmopar said:

Was doing some research and found this: Seems pretty accurate.

 

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

Team needs bolded. Looks like OL is the most reliable 1st round pick. RB and DL have the same success rate. This does show that in fact that elite QB's  don't grow on trees. It's only 63% in the first round to have a consistent starter, let alone high quality or elite quarterbacks.

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Would be interesting to see a trend for top 5 picks (although I think there is a good thread on the specific players taken) as it is a big difference between players taken 28th/29th etc than top 5. 

 

My comment primarily refers to RB's as, taking a RB top 5 or even top 10 means that player is a big deal and players like Gurley, Zeke and Fournette are talents that are not really comparable to those taken near the end of the first round.

 

If you are picking middle of the round I think this is a useful analysis but, for me, I would feel like you were missing true game-changing talent by taking an O-lineman as early as we are.

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I think there are probably some flaws in this analysis.  

 

What's he mean by "starter for half your career".  Do games you are sitting out due to injury count?  

 

Also a problem with RB's is that they are rotated so much these days.  

 

Also just cause you are a starter doesn't mean you are good.  

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