History Shows Vast Majority Of Qb's Picked # 1 Dont Become Franchise Qb's

[bayone]

NOTE : this is an article ,

a FanPosts

not by stampede blue but from a site member there , just like if one member from this site doing the research and posted it

Is an article to go along with stats

Contains An Easy Chart to read

So, of the 19 QBs taken first overall, a grand total of 5 have become Franchise QB’s (Bradshaw, Elway, Aikman, Peyton and Eli)

http://www.stampedeb...anning?tw_p=twt

[bayone]

Playing DEVILS ADVOCATE

History shows vast majority of QB's picked # 1 dont become franchise QB's

NOTE : a FanPost on but not by

stampede blue, its from a site member there , just like one of us, THERE CHART IS BETTER IN ARTICLE

Is an article to go along with stats

See below:

Year

--------------- Player

------------------------------------------------------- Franchise QB

1970

---------------- Bradshaw

----------------------------------------------------------- YES

1971

-------------- Jim Pluckett, cut by 49rs before winning at Raiders

-------------------------------------------------------------------- NO

1975

------------ Steve Bartkowski

---------------------------------------------------------------NO

1983

--------------------------John Elway

-----------------------------------------------------------------YES

1987

-----------------------VInny Testaverde

-------------------------------------------------------------------NO

1989

-----------------------Troy Aikman

------------------------------------------------------------------YES

1990

-------------------------Jeff George

-------------------------------------------------------------NO – Bust

1993

-----------------------Drew Bledsoe

--------------------------------------------------------------------NO

1998

----------------------Peyton Manning

------------------------------------------------------------------YES

1999

-----------------------------Tim Couch

------------------------------------------------------------------NO – Bust

2001

----------------------------Michael Vick

-----------------------------------------------------------------------NO

2002

--------------------------David Carr

------------------------------------------------------------------NO – Bust

2003

-----------------------Carson Palmer

-------------------------------------------------------------------------NO

2004

----------------------------Eli Manning

-----------------------------------------------------------------------YES

2005

------------------------------Alex Smith

--------------------------------------------------------------------------NO

2007

----------------------JaMarcus Russell

-------------------------------------------------------------------NO – BUST

2009

-----------------------Matthew Stafford

-------------------------------------------------------------------N/A , too new

2010

------------------------ Sam Bradford

------------------------------------------------------------------N/A , too new

2011

-----------------------Cam Newton

-----------------------------------------------------------------N/A , too new

So, of the 19 QBs taken first overall, a grand total of 5 have become Franchise QB’s (Bradshaw, Elway, Aikman, Peyton and Eli)

( I dont neseasrily agree with all these, some not QBs fault , Palmer started stellar , then Bengal legal issues and injury )

http://www.stampedeblue.com/2012/2/16/2802271/stats-history-prove-i...

[Dan]

So 25% have become franchise QBs? Compare that to QBs picked in other positions... There are very few franchise QBs in history, so it's no surprise a lot of number one picks don't make it.

[bayone]

So 25% have become franchise QBs? Compare that to QBs picked in other positions... There are very few franchise QBs in history, so it's no surprise a lot of number one picks don't make it.

agreed, as noted Playing DEVILS ADVOCATE

just stating expect the best and prepare just in case

also read your comment in

http://forums.colts....sman-qb-in-nfl/

Scouts couldn't care less about numbers - it's all about intangibles. Luck doesn't have the best numbers but has (arguably, pretty much unanimously decided) the best skillset.

agree luck has that going for him

[CR91]

i disagree with vick and palmer. you can build a franchise around them. blesoe did take the pats to the super bowl.

[UndecidedFrog]

Yet history also shows that the majority of teams that have won SBs were led by a first round QB.

The scouts may not always get the #1 pick correctly, and the QB may not be always picked #1. But generally, scouts and NFL team player personnel decisions have been correct in evaluating QBs prospects.

[Pombi]

Michael Vick, Carson Palmer and Drew Belsoe were at one point viewed as Franchise QB's. Just because they are both now past their prime and have left their original team does not mean we should not view them as such. JMO.

I mean they all lead pretty crummy teams to the playoffs and in Bledsoes case he was in the Super bowl...

[bayone]

i disagree with vick and palmer. you can build a franchise around them. blesoe did take the pats to the super bowl.

I noted I disagreed with palmer & some others, it was in red at bottom of OP

[Bulldog Colt]

Hopefully Luck makes it number 6

[kcusrotaredom]

NOTE : this is an article ,

a FanPosts

not by stampede blue but from a site member there , just like if one member from this site doing the research and posted it

Is an article to go along with stats

Contains An Easy Chart to read

So, of the 19 QBs taken first overall, a grand total of 5 have become Franchise QB’s (Bradshaw, Elway, Aikman, Peyton and Eli)

http://www.stampedeb...anning?tw_p=twt

This information is useless. Everyone knows Peyton was a #1 pick for a reason. Those same people KNOW why we are dumping even Peyton for the NO RISK guaranteed non-bust of the century with Luck. Its a no-brainer decision. That's why the people in charge are in charge and you are a forum poster with bad data and off-kilter statistics.

[bayone]

This information is useless. Everyone knows Peyton was a #1 pick for a reason. Those same people KNOW why we are dumping even Peyton for the NO RISK guaranteed non-bust of the century with Luck. Its a no-brainer decision. That's why the people in charge are in charge and you are a forum poster with bad data and off-kilter statistics.

agree with That's why the people in charge are in charge , & u have right to opinion that this is worthless to u

\

however

just gave this out for whatever it was worth for those that may have interest as saw similar already posted on heisman QB winers http://forums.colts.com/index.php?/topic/5503-history-shows-former-heisman-qb-in-nfl/

so someine must likes stats like these

[bayone]

error

[subvet]

NOTE : this is an article ,

a FanPosts

not by stampede blue but from a site member there , just like if one member from this site doing the research and posted it

Is an article to go along with stats

Contains An Easy Chart to read

So, of the 19 QBs taken first overall, a grand total of 5 have become Franchise QB’s (Bradshaw, Elway, Aikman, Peyton and Eli)

http://www.stampedeb...anning?tw_p=twt

Are you defining "franchise quarterback" by wins in the Super Bowl?

History shows that of the top 20 quarterbacks drafted in the last 10 years, 18 are still on a team roster as either backup or starting.

[subvet]

Those same people KNOW why we are dumping even Peyton for the NO RISK guaranteed non-bust of the century with Luck.

No one knows if Peyton is going anywhere yet, just wishful thinking and opinions so far. And as "everyone" knows, Manning could have been a #2 pick very easily because of good old Ryan Leaf who showed why there are no risk free guarantees in the draft.

[pacolts56]

I have one main issue with that list.....Jim Plunkett was the starting QB for TWO Super Bowl winning Raiders teams and MVP'd in one of them.

Did his career begin on a rocky note? Absolutely.

Was the New England Patriots franchise that drafted him the model of football organization and consistency that they are now? Uhhhhhh....no.

And his 2nd team, the 49ers weren't a whole lot better.

Let's face it..... even the QBs that he concluded WERE franchise QBs achieved what they achieved with excellent.... and in Bradshaw's and Aikmen's case....dynasty-level talent around them.

Easier said than done.

[bayone]

Are you defining "franchise quarterback" by wins in the Super Bowl?

History shows that of the top 20 quarterbacks drafted in the last 10 years, 18 are still on a team roster as either backup or starting.

To be honest let me try & clarify this , maybe I didn't in initial op

When I wrote,

NOTE : this is an article ,( that is ) a FanPost

not by stampede blue but from a site member there , just like if one member from this site did some research and posted it

So this isnt written by me , but is a post written not by an editor of stampede blue but by a site member, like we are site members here,

In that site members article & link in intial op to article works, he DOESNT state his definition of what a franchise QB is So its left to us to decide what he means

​Now the article is decidedly made in a way to support Manning and not jump on the Luck Bandwagon as can be seen by the writers last line of the article

Either way, lets calm down on the “Andrew Luck is the next Peyton Manning” talk. Statistically, his chances are about 1 in 4 in becoming even a Franchise QB, much less one at the level of Manning.

+++ He also mentions as clues to what he considers a franchise qb by stating ++++

some have become decent NFL QBs, perhaps even making a Pro-Bowl or two, but not a containing a decade-long level of success. (I know Jim Plunkett won two Super Bowls with the

Raiders

, but don’t forget he was cut by the

49ers

and never made a Pro-Bowl) Michael Vick’s known personal and injury issues keeps him just out of the “Franchise QB” category, and he has never taken his team to a Super Bowl. Drew Bledsoe had some nice seasons, but again, never sustained it over an extended period of time

so your guess / extrapolation is as good as mine in that regard to what exactly a franchise QB is, apparently for him a key is containing a decade-long level of success

.& i guess thats why he had Palmer there as to me he was initially stellar, just bengals got all those legal issues and then he got hurt and bnengal organization FO was no help

[JimJaime]

Bayone,

Bledsoe WAS a Franchise QB, so much so when the Pats traded him after they won the sb they got a 1st round draft pick for him. (He went to 2 SB in NE. And IMO would have beaten Favre and the Packers if the Tuna hadn't been dumb and kicked it away instead of squib kicking it.)

[bayone]

Bayone,

Bledsoe WAS a Franchise QB, so much so when the Pats traded him after they won the sb they got a 1st round draft pick for him. (He went to 2 SB in NE. And IMO would have beaten Favre and the Packers if the Tuna hadn't been dumb and kicked it away instead of squib kicking it.)

as I said, i didnt agree with all,in article, that was authors opinion

[DenverFan]

Statistics mean nothing to the individual. Tom Brady was like 1 and 6 against the Broncos before this season, he is now 3 and 6 with 2 blow out wins from this year.

Andy Luck and Rob Griffin aren't going to bust because other QBs before them busted.

[colts_mp]

Steve Bartkowski was a franchise QB as well. He played his first 11 years for Atlanta. He didn't make the super bowl but being the starting QB for all that time has to make him a franchise QB.

[John Dee]

It just takes one team to fall in love with you. And normally the bad ones have a lot of bad relationships.....

Lets hope Indy has a new and even happier marraige than previous.

[John Dee]

IMO Carr, and Russell are the only "true" busts....

George had some very good years in the NFL, and Smith nearly led his team to the SB this season.

[Bleedin Blue]

This list is BAD. As other's pointed out, there are a bunch of "franchise quarterbacks" in there or at least guys you can build a team around and compete at the highest level with. Guys such as

Testaverde

Drew Bledsoe

Michael Vick

Carson Palmer

Matthew Stafford

There are absolutely busts in there but most of those were the "crazy athletic beasts". I also think scouts and FO's have gotten a lot better at discriminating talent. Russell should never have been a 1st round pick and I think only the Raiders had the stupidity to think he was.

[ColtsBlueFL]

Flawed premise by the original author, as many pointed out.

Something else to look at, of his 5 franchise QB's, there are 12 Super Bowl wins. That's 2.4 per QB! (Peyton is last on that list with 1!!) Plunkett started weak, but then became solid enough and delivered 2 more SB wins!! So 6 of those guys delivered 14 SB victories!! Now >2.3 per QB. Bledsoe led his team to the SB, but got hurt at end of the season. Tom Brady mopped up for the win and ignited his career. Call it another .5 SB.

14 or 14.5 Super Bowl wins from a list of 19 Entries. And of those 19, there are still 8 active in the league that can add to that total. Incredible return on investment and makes it worth the attempt to find the next QB that slides into the group. Some on there without any SB wins that might. I see the glass over half full when I saw this, not a Bust-o-rama list.

Further, Carr and Couch went to brand spanking new teams that turned them into human pinata's. No telling what could have been. Russel was the ultimate bust, George was just a Colts bust. He actually played decent for other teams later on. Likely a great deal for them but a Colts bust, true.

I'm in... let's go 1st pick Colts QB!!

[04DarkShadowGT]

Not sure, Id say Palmer, Vick, Bledsoe, and Testaverde Bartkowski, and Plunkett all had pretty good careers. Palmer had some injury issues and Vick we all know about but both were franchise QBs for a while. Bledose and Testaverded had long and successful careers imo. While Plunkett wasnt a HOF guy, he did win two titles. Bartkowski had some very solid years.

I think all of those could be considered good picks at #1. Not great picks, but good ones. Of all of those I would say only four were bad picks. That is pretty good odds Id say.

You could win a SB with any of those other guys if given a descent team. Heck Im not sure Carr ever got a fair shake in Houston, he was a punching bag from day 1. If he was drafted to a better team, he may have been a productive NFL QB.

Tim Couch was a terrible pick. Russell could have been good, but he had less than zero work ethic. Carr I mentioned, and George was a head case with a crazy strong arm.

[kcusrotaredom]

No one knows if Peyton is going anywhere yet, just wishful thinking and opinions so far. And as "everyone" knows, Manning could have been a #2 pick very easily because of good old Ryan Leaf who showed why there are no risk free guarantees in the draft.

True, but all the hype this years draft is around RG3, which eerily mirrors Ryan Leaf. Granted, RG3 is more mature than Leaf. But still, the parallels of Luck and Manning are too good to ignore. If anything, I view Luck as more a mix of Elway and Manning, and I'm sure his career will prove it. RG3 could be good or bad, but it doesn't matter to me, he will definitely be inferior to Luck.