Nfl draft order tiebreaker question

[coltsorioles]

If the Colts beat the Texans next week they will both be 4-12 ( assuming they lose to Pitt) . The colts would then finish 3rd in the division , however would they still pick higher then the Texans or lower????  I know it's based on strength of schedule

[BOTT]

Colts would pick 3rd is my understanding.

[BlueShoe]

First tie breaker is strength of schedule. 

 

I have given this a lot of thought lately, and if the Colts beat the Texans twice and end with the same record, but still pick in front of the them (Texans-Browns pick), then we could possible see a tweak to the rule in coming seasons.

 

That said, other teams that finish with the same record should not be impacted by rules other than strength of schedule, so using strength of schedule as a deciding factor might be the only fair solution. Had Houston not traded the pick to Cleveland then I am sure this story would get a lot more attention. 

 

Maybe Houston pulls off a miracle against Pittsburgh, and it kills the conversation. Maybe Houston beats us. Who knows. It does appear the Colts and Texans will end the season having identical records, with the Colts beating the Texans twice, and the Colts having the better draft position. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

By losing to the Ravens we clinched picking the 3rd in the Draft based on strength of schedule per the Indy Star. Even if we beat Houston it doesn't matter. So I hope we beat Houston to avenge losing to them at home last season and get the season sweep.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Question is, who do we take at the 3rd? Chubb? Barkley? Nelson? or do we trade down with a team and maybe get like the 8th or 9th pick + an extra pick in Round 2 if we can pull that off? Nelson may even be there at 9.

[BOTT]

52 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Question is, who do we take at the 3rd? Chubb? Barkley? Nelson? or do we trade down with a team and maybe get like the 8th or 9th pick + an extra pick in Round 2 if we can pull that off? Nelson may even be there at 9.

Chubb

[2006Coltsbestever]

16 minutes ago, BOTT said:

Chubb

I would be fine with that actually. I throw Barkley and Nelson out there as well but Chubb has tons of potential and we need more help on Defense obviously. We need help in several area's is the problem.

[BOTT]

Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I would be fine with that actually. I throw Barkley and Nelson out there as well but Chubb has tons of potential and we need more help on Defense obviously. We need help in several area's is the problem.

The Alabama cb could be in play too.  Kiper was just talking up Chubb on the first draft podcast....sounds like a great fit for what the colts need.

[coltsorioles]

Finish 4th in the division Colts play Denver, Cleveland,  Finish 3rd  Cincinnati, Oakland

[Smonroe]

12 minutes ago, coltsorioles said:

Finish 4th in the division Colts play Denver, Cleveland,  Finish 3rd  Cincinnati, Oakland

 

It’s odd, if the Texans lose out they end up last in our division based on the head to head tie breaker.  But we draft before them based on SoS.  

 

BTW, it’s home for Cle/Cin, away for Den/Oak.   

[mad dog curtis]

free agency is going to tell us what direction the draft pick will be

[aaron11]

10 minutes ago, mad dog curtis said:

free agency is going to tell us what direction the draft pick will be

ill predict free agency now

 

we will go after at least two starters on the oline, maybe more. also a WR or two and possibly a running back.  wouldnt be shocked if gore came back for one more year

 

free agency- offense, draft- defense.  we could still take barkley if we stick with the third pick and dont bring in a back in FA

[#12.]

3 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

By losing to the Ravens we clinched picking the 3rd in the Draft based on strength of schedule per the Indy Star. Even if we beat Houston it doesn't matter. So I hope we beat Houston to avenge losing to them at home last season and get the season sweep.

 

Not impossible for the Giants the beat Washington - home game, division game, Eli's last game.  They should have beaten Philly.

[Andrew Luck fan club]

3 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Question is, who do we take at the 3rd? Chubb? Barkley? Nelson? or do we trade down with a team and maybe get like the 8th or 9th pick + an extra pick in Round 2 if we can pull that off? Nelson may even be there at 9.

Connor Williams. Mean nasty OL is exactly what we neeed. 

[deedub75]

We have to get a pass rusher with the pick. Great pass rushers rarely if ever hit free agency. 

[aaron11]

tie breaker should probably be head to head, but whatever it helps us now 

[oldunclemark]

3 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Question is, who do we take at the 3rd? Chubb? Barkley? Nelson? or do we trade down with a team and maybe get like the 8th or 9th pick + an extra pick in Round 2 if we can pull that off? Nelson may even be there at 9.

Defense. No trade downs. And no running backs.

If we wanted the 8th pick, we could have won a few more games....

[oldunclemark]

2 hours ago, BOTT said:

Chubb

Exactly. We should not overthink it.  We need an impact rush guy.

4-year player. Proven performer....Fills a need...

 

I'd address the O-line in free agency... We have the money. Overpay if you have to to get experience in here.

We cannot go on the way we have the last 2 or 3 years

 

[aaron11]

3 minutes ago, oldunclemark said:

Exactly. We should not overthink it.  We need an impact rush guy.

 

I'd address the O-line in free agency... WE have the money. Overpay if you have to to get experience in here.

We cannot go on the way we have the last 2 or 3 years

 

i concur lol

 

 

[Smonroe]

15 minutes ago, oldunclemark said:

Exactly. We should not overthink it.  We need an impact rush guy.

4-year player. Proven performer....Fills a need...

 

I'd address the O-line in free agency... We have the money. Overpay if you have to to get experience in here.

We cannot go on the way we have the last 2 or 3 years

 

 

How come everyone in the world knew that except Grigson?

[Hoose]

2 hours ago, BOTT said:

Chubb

Totally agree. Historically, you have to draft a top pass rusher. The best ones rarely get away in FA. Just too valuable. 

[csmopar]

My confusion is this... how have we clinched the 3rd pick with a game to play?

[richard pallo]

4 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Question is, who do we take at the 3rd? Chubb? Barkley? Nelson? or do we trade down with a team and maybe get like the 8th or 9th pick + an extra pick in Round 2 if we can pull that off? Nelson may even be there at 9.

Trade 1st. option. 2nd. Barkley

[richard pallo]

I can't imagine Ballard not trading either pick.  He will get offers on both.  I will be shocked if he stands pat and makes a pick at 2 or 3. 

[dw49]

1 hour ago, csmopar said:

My confusion is this... how have we clinched the 3rd pick with a game to play?

 

It's due to the fact that even if we win , we will not have less wins than teams other than Cleveland or the Giants. If we beat Houston and TB also losses that would leave those 3 teams tied for the 3rd spot in the draft. Our SOS schedule is the lowest of the 3 teams. There is no possible combinations of wins and losses to change that SOS standings between TB Houston and Indy. So win lose or draw , we pick no lower than 3rd. We could pick 2nd if we loe and Giants win. This is again due to SOS. The Giants is higher than ours , so they are deemed to be the better team" as they had the same record as us but achieved it against better competition.

 

Hope this answers your question.

[jameszeigler834]

6 hours ago, coltsorioles said:

If the Colts beat the Texans next week they will both be 4-12 ( assuming they lose to Pitt) . The colts would then finish 3rd in the division , however would they still pick higher then the Texans or lower????  I know it's based on strength of schedule

I think lower but Texans don't have a first round pick so we would be doing a coin flip with Cleveland because that's who has the pick.

[csmopar]

13 minutes ago, dw49 said:

 

It's due to the fact that even if we win , we will not have less wins than teams other than Cleveland or the Giants. If we beat Houston and TB also losses that would leave those 3 teams tied for the 3rd spot in the draft. Our SOS schedule is the lowest of the 3 teams. There is no possible combinations of wins and losses to change that SOS standings between TB Houston and Indy. So win lose or draw , we pick no lower than 3rd. We could pick 2nd if we loe and Giants win. This is again due to SOS. The Giants is higher than ours , so they are deemed to be the better team" as they had the same record as us but achieved it against better competition.

 

Hope this answers your question.

Yep it does! Thanks!

[IinD]

Nice, so we can actually not feel to bad if they destroy Houston. I can dig it.

 

A win would be nice since we haven't had many this year and it won't really affect anything in the draft.

[dw49]

9 minutes ago, jameszeigler834 said:

I think lower but Texans don't have a first round pick so we would be doing a coin flip with Cleveland because that's who has the pick.

 

 

C'mon man.... No coin flip. If we beat Houston , we pick 3rd and yes as you say ... Cleveland picks 4th as they own Houston's first.

[UKColt13]

9 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Question is, who do we take at the 3rd? Chubb? Barkley? Nelson? or do we trade down with a team and maybe get like the 8th or 9th pick + an extra pick in Round 2 if we can pull that off? Nelson may even be there at 9.

 

I’d want more than a 2 to trade down to 8/9. Maybe that and a future 1?

[GoColts8818]

This could be a rare situation that due to strength of schedule that the Colts end up third in the division but picking before the Texans pick in the draft.

[GoColts8818]

9 hours ago, BOTT said:

Chubb

That’s who I want.  The Colts need a pass rusher. Those are extremely hard to get outside of the draft and outside of a high draft pick.

[jameszeigler834]

5 hours ago, dw49 said:

 

 

C'mon man.... No coin flip. If we beat Houston , we pick 3rd and yes as you say ... Cleveland picks 4th as they own Houston's first.

even if we don't we would be ahead we have 3 wins they have 4 if we beat them its a tie and there would be a coin flip. if Texans win they would be lower.

[aaron11]

4 minutes ago, jameszeigler834 said:

even if we don't we would be ahead we have 3 wins they have 4 if we beat them its a tie and there would be a coin flip. if Texans win they would be lower.

they only flip a coin if strength of schedule is tied.  doesnt seem like that would be common, but it happened to us last year

[BOTT]

11 hours ago, mad dog curtis said:

free agency is going to tell us what direction the draft pick will be

I doubt it.  Colts are probably looking at a high impact defensive player or maybe a LT if shoots up the boards.......positions that are hard to come by in free agency.

[oldunclemark]

4 hours ago, UKColt13 said:

 

I’d want more than a 2 to trade down to 8/9. Maybe that and a future 1?

Who is giving us a present 8 and a future 1st rounder for the No. 3 pick.

Again......fantasy football 

 

WE pick 3rd..Take the best player there (not a QB or RB)

 

Don't overthink it

Edited December 26, 2017 by oldunclemark
spell

[jameszeigler834]

2 hours ago, aaron11 said:

they only flip a coin if strength of schedule is tied.  doesnt seem like that would be common, but it happened to us last year

Ok.

[Coltfreak]

10 hours ago, deedub75 said:

We have to get a pass rusher with the pick. Great pass rushers rarely if ever hit free agency. 

Very good point 

[2006Coltsbestever]

2 hours ago, jameszeigler834 said:

even if we don't we would be ahead we have 3 wins they have 4 if we beat them its a tie and there would be a coin flip. if Texans win they would be lower.

Even if we beat Houston we will pick 3rd based on SOS.

[jameszeigler834]

44 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Even if we beat Houston we will pick 3rd based on SOS.

Ok.