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Just now, Chrisaaron1023 said:

we have played formidably this half.. wonder how lopsided the 2nd half will be...

 

It's pretty difficult for this defense to give up less than 30 points in a game. 

 

I would say they're good for at least 20 in the second half. 

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    • Sure, but it's an easy early indicator. In pure record, we rank 9th. Like I said, some use record + SoS, some predicted DVOA. Regardless, we're bottom 16. Haven't seen a rank that puts up in the top half yet. As long as we have 4 games against Jax and Houston, it'll be hard. Our early stretch is rough, our late stretch is easy. Middle is up and down.   Vegas really doesn't do that though. They'll do record prediction more on a combo of eye test experts, analytics, plus what their experts think will be betting trends. Vegas does get very analytical, but they are not concerned with being accurate lol. Only the dolla dolla bills yo,    
    • Strength of schedule based on last year records is not great. Too much turnover and changes year to year. Vegas lines or some sort of advanced analytics projections are probably better for SoS.   Here's one based on Vegas over unders: https://theathletic.com/news/nfl-strength-of-schedule-steelers-raiders-seahawks-lions-bengals/wa372YuigYZB   This one thinks we with the 5th easiest schedule.
    • Taking a break from NBA (Pacers stink BTW lol), and deep diving the Colts Schedule (will likely post something tomorrow)...  With all the talk on OL, extensions, etc, decided to quickly take a look at our OL and projections, and compare to other teams.   TLDR General Notes Colts Highest NFL OL spend already at 53.3M (prior to extensions), and 28% of salary cap (assumes Fisher's 9.4 is in 2021) Projections Nelson - 18M (+12M) - highest paid LG Smith - 16M (+14M) - top 3 paid RT If both are extended this year, Indy would be spending 79M on OL, and 27ish M more than the next NFL team. If the salary cap goes up to 200M next year (from 188M this year), Colts could be spending nearly 40% of the cap on OL if they simply resign Glow for the same, and that doesn't count a raise for Fisher if they choose to resign. If Fisher recovers, he's likely to get 15M or more next year, pushing the yearly up (+5 or more) even more. Glow, while a bargain IMO, and the best weak link in the NFL, is still making top 10 money. He's in a contract year. See SB teams spend and performance rank farther below.  NFL Position High, Position 10th LT: Top 23M/Y, 10th 14.75M/Y Fisher: 17th (9.4M) LG: Top 16M/Y, 10th 6.0M Nelson: 10th (6.0M) OC: Top 12.5/Y, 10th 9.0M/Y Kelly: 2nd (12.4M) RG: Top 18M/Y, 10th 5M/Y Glow: 9th (5.4M) RT: Top 18M/Y, 10th 8M/Y Smith: 44th (1.8M) Other T: Tevi (2.5M), Davenport (1.1M), Holden (0.8M), Od'Donnell (0.7M) Other G: Reed (1.3M), Fries (0.9M), Elderkamp (0.9M) Other C: Hunt (1.0M), Pinter (0.9M) Current Top 5 OL spending 2021 / 2020 spending rank / 2020 OL Rank 1. Colts 53.3M / 8th / #7 2. Jags 52.7M / 16th / #22 3. Browns 52.6M / 6th / #1 4. WFT 51.6M / 4th / #6 5. Titans 46.0M / 19th / #15 6. Jets 45.1M / 17th / #29 7. Eagles 43.9M / 29th / #19 8. Cardinals 41.6M / 13th / #12 9. Bills 40.2M / 3rd / #10 10. 49ers 38.7M / 28th / #9 Note:  2020 AVG OL Spend: 26M 2021 AVG OL Spend: 35.1M SB Teams / OL Spend / OL Rank 2020 TB / 2nd / #5 KC / 24th / #11 2019 KC / 14th / #16 SF / 17th / #14 2018 NE / 26th / #4 LAR / 8th / #6 Average Spend Rank (last 3 SBs): 16th Average OL Rank (last 3 SBs): #9
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    • Yup, tough opening stretch, but easy closing stretch.  I'm Ok with that.
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