Weekly 2018 NFL draft order

[NewColtsFan]

43 minutes ago, BR-549 said:

I sure hope not..... long way off yet, but this may be one of those situations where no news isn't necessarily good news.

 

 

 

I think you mean bad news,  but yes,  I think I get your meaning.....

 

[BR-549]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I think you mean bad news,  but yes,  I think I get your meaning.....

 

I have just heard the saying go "no news is good news"... so I was getting at ... without news at this point in his recovery/ rehab might be "bad news", hopefully not .... confuses me too though, lol.... no worries.  

 

I know you know what I know is the point... to make it more clear and easier to understand for everyone else reading this. 

[Dark Superman]

If the Colts landed the #2 pick I'm certain they will trade back.

But how much could they get for that pick is the real question?

If they stay at two, do you take Chubb, Williams or Barkley?

I don't think you can pass up Barkley if you're picking before SF.

If the Colts can grab one or two line man in free agency then I would pull the trigger on Barkley.

We need to surround Luck with some talent already.

I'm hoping Mewhort can come back and we snag Norwell in FA.

If Moncrief walks, hopefully, we can snag another WR to play the 2.

If Colts trade back a few spots, Nelson or Williams would probably be their pick. If they stay in the top 3 then Chubb or Barkley.

[ponyboy]

After week 15 (before Sunday and Monday night games)

I'm posting this before the end of the Sunday and Monday night games.  The outcomes of the Sunday and Monday night games will have little impact on the top 10 draft positions.  I've projected a TB loss on Monday night in the table below, but even if TB wins, it's a minor impact on the bottom-6 teams and in the favor of the Colts.

 

Likewise, the outcome of the Sunday night game will have vary little impact on the top 10.  I'm showing the SoS impact the for the different Sunday night outcomes.  You can see that it changes no draft positions and has only minor impact on SoS, again only favoring the Colts by widening the SoS advantage with NYG and potentially SF.

 

This week I'm showing the including the impact of either Sunday night outcome.  You'll see three valus in brackets shown after the SoS percentage.  All of these show the number of opponent wins for the team at that draft position (the primary factor in the SoS calculation).  The first is [wins without Sunday outcome].  The second is the [wins with DAL win].  The third is [wins with OAK win].

 

Observations

- Browns a lock for #1.  Not mathematically, but realistically.

- Colts are almost certain to be picking #2 or #3, unless they win both.

- I think there is a good chance of NYG winning at least one of (@ARI or WSH)

- Colts maintain a very good advantage in SoS against all in bottom-7.  Only CIN/DEN close in top 10.

 

- Colts finish 3-13

     - A lock for #2 or #3.  It's #2 if NYG win either (@ARI or WSH).

     - I'm almost certain the SoS gap with NYG is too big for NYG to overcome.

- Colts finish 4-12.

     - Still likely #3.  #2 still possible if NYG win both (@ARI or WSH)

     - If lose to BAL, beat HOU: still probably stay ahead of both HOU and SF in SoS*

     - If beat BAL, lose HOU: only have to stay ahead of SF in SoS.*

     - There is no way we lose SoS to CHI or TB from here on out.

-  Colts finish 5-11

     - I'm not going into scenarios because I can't see them beating BAL.

     - But if they do, could be picking between #5-#9.

          - SoS battles with CIN and DEN if both end at 5-11.

          - Hopefully CHI beats CLE and stay ahead in SoS at 5-11.

          - I think TB and HOU stay at 4-12 in this scenario.

              - CLE, NYG, HOU, TB for sure ahead of IND.

              - CHI, CIN, SF, and DEN potentially ahead of IND.

 

* I haven't proved it to myself yet, but I think the Colts might be guaranteed to stay ahead of HOU if both teams end 4-12 by Colts beating them in week 17.  HOU is the closest SoS in the bottom 7 teams with a 4 game gap (109 vs. 113), but HOU would gain 2 additional opponent wins if Colts beat them, so it's really a 6 game gap they'd have to make up -- which might be unrealistic.

 

Upcoming key match-ups (draft-wise)

- Week 16 CLE at CHI (would like to see CHI get 5th win)

- Week 16 NYG at ARI (would like to see NYG get 3rd win)

- Week 16 JAX at SF (would like to see another SF get 5th win at home)

- Week 16 DEN at WSH (would like to see DEN get 6th win)

- Week 17 NYG at WSH (would like to see NYG get 3rd or 4th win)

               

Teams 0-14
#1 CLE   0.5134  [115] [115] [115]   @CHI, @PIT
                    
Teams 2-12
#2 NYG   0.5249  [116] [118] [117]  @ARI, WSH
                    
Teams 3-11
#3 IND   0.4866  [109] [109] [109]   @BAL, HOU
                    
Teams 4-10
#4 HOU   0.5045  [113] [113] [113]   PIT, @IND
#5 SF    0.5112  [114] [115] [114]   JAX, @LAR
#6 CHI   0.5580  [125] [125] [125]   CLE, @MIN
#7 TB    0.5625  [126] [126] [126]   @CAR, NO
                    
Teams 5-9
#8 CIN   0.4732  [106] [106] [106]     DET, @BAL
#9 DEN   0.4842  [107] [108] [109]   @WSH, KC
#10 NYJ   0.5336  [119] [119] [120]   LAC, @NE

 

[ponyboy]

With this loss to BAL, IND is now almost guaranteed to be drafting either #2 or #3, even if we beat HOU next week.

 

I say almost because #4 is still possible if SF jumps us for #3, but the scenario for that is almost impossible (see SF scenario below).

 

Colts 3-13
#2 if NYG beat either ARI or WSH
#3 otherwise

 

Colts 4-12
#2 if NYG beat both ARI and WSH
#3 virtually a lock if NYG loses one
#4 almost impossible, but mathematically possible (if my analysis regarding SF SoS is right, see below)

 

 

SF scenario
- Niners lose both remaining games finishing 4-12.
- Going into Week 16 SF has a +5 gap in opponents wins over IND [109 vs 114].
- In the final 2 weeks SF is guaranteed to pick up +2 gap due to schedule.
- Of the remaining games that can impact the gap, the only possible way to close the 7 win gap is for these 11 games to fall just right for SF.
- If all 11 fall this way, then we end in a SoS tie with SF.

 

Week 16:
CIN beats DET (+1 IND)
BUF beats NE  (+1 IND)
CLE beats CHI (+1 IND)
TB  beats CAR (+0 SF)
DEN beats WSH (+1 IND)
TEN beats LAR (+1 IND)
OAK beats PHI (+0 SF)

 

Week 17:
BUF beats MIA (+1 IND)
CHI beats MIN (+0 SF)
ATL beats CAR (+0 SF)
DEN beats KC  (+1 IND)

 

HOU scenario
It is impossible for HOU to end at 4-12 and have a lower SoS than IND.  Here's why.
- HOU will have a +6 opponent win gap with IND entering week 16 (IND win in week 17).
- HOU can only close the win gap by 4 with IND.  Here's why.
- HOU and IND have almost identical opponents, except
    - In AFC West, IND played DEN and HOU played KC
    - In AFC East, IND played BUF and HOU Played NE in AFC East
    - So, IND could only potentially gain 4 wins on HOU (if DEN/BUF win out, NE/KC lose out).

 

CHI and TB scenarios
- Impossible for these two to win SoS against Colts.  The opponent win% gaps are 16 and 17 respectively.

[ponyboy]

After week 16 (before Monday games)

 

Not much drama left.  Browns picking #1.  Colts/Giants are picking #3 or #2.  I've projected PHI and PIT wins on Monday for these stats, but they really don't impact much at this point (except potentially moving HOU to the 5 win group).

 

Observations

- It would be really good to get that #2 pick.  I think we could get something from NYG to move #3->#2.

- Would be good if QB needy teams don't get drop too far down.  I'm thinking DEN or NYJ as a prime trading partner.

- Trading partners for Barkley?  Maybe CLE (#4), TB (#5), or SF (#7).

- Would like to see TB join the 5 win teams and potentially move DEN/NYJ higher.

- Would like to see SF improve SoS and move behind NYJ.

Teams 0-15
#1 CLE   0.5167   124  (@PIT)
            
Teams 2-13
#2 NYG   0.5333   128  (WSH)
            
Teams 3-12
#3 IND   0.4833   116  (HOU)
            
Teams 4-11
#4 HOU   0.5083   122  (@IND)
#5 TB       0.5583  134  (NO)
            
Teams 5-10
#6 DEN   0.4833   116  (KC)
#7 SF      0.5208   125  (@LAR)
#8 NYJ    0.5208   125  (@NE)
#9 CHI     0.5583   134  (@MIN)
            
Teams 6-9
#10 CIN  0.4667   112
#11 OAK  0.5083   122
#12 MIA  0.5417   130

 

[ponyboy]

After week 17

Hope this thread was useful.

 

Observations

- DEN and NYJ might be competing to trade up for the third QB

- CLE and TB might want to trade up for Barkley

- With a little luck we could swing a trade from 3->4 (Barkley) then 4->5 (3rd QB)

- If three QBs and Barkley go in top 4 we still have our choice of top player at any other position at 5

 

Teams 0-16
#1 CLE  0.5195  133
            
Teams 3-13
#2 NYG  0.5313  136
            
Teams 4-12
#3 IND  0.4805  123
#4 HOU  0.5156  132
            
Teams 5-11
#5 DEN  0.4922  126
#6 NYJ  0.5195  133
#7 TB   0.5547  142
#8 CHI  0.5586  143
            
Teams 6-10
#9 OAK  0.5117  131
#10 SF  0.5117  131
#11 MIA 0.5439  139
            
Teams 7-9
#12 CIN 0.4648  119
#13 GB  0.5391  138
#14 WSH 0.5391  138
            
Teams 8-8
#15 ARI 0.4883  125
            
Teams 9-7
#16 BAL 0.4414  113
#17 LAC 0.4570  117
#18 SEA 0.4922  126
#19 DAL 0.4961  127
#20 DET 0.4961  127

[Case]

On 10/4/2017 at 11:25 PM, bananabucket said:

We aren't getting a top 5 pick.