Why I'm beefing with the Colts passing offense -- Part 3

[Superman]

Part 1

Part 2

 

I'm focusing on the Chiefs game from 2016, a game the Colts lost 30-14. Besides the emotional letdown of blowing the lead against Houston and eventually being swept by them, this was probably the ugliest loss of the season. Between 2 turnovers and Luck being sacked 6 times, along with only scoring 14 points at home, this game exposed almost every weakness of the offense. Yet, in rewatching this game (three times now), the gameplan wasn't bad. There were some goofy calls, but there was a clear focus on getting the ball to the receivers right away. The execution undermined what I think was a sound approach.

 

Pardon my ugly snapshots and diagrams, and the lack of all 22 shots, but I think the points will be obvious.

 

#1: After the first drive was killed by a (ticky tack) holding penalty which wiped out a 40 yard pass play to Hilton, the Colts got the ball back down by 3, halfway through the first quarter, at their own 25 yard line. First and 10, they line up with 3 receivers on the left side, TE on the right. The defense is showing man, with the safety back more than 20 yards and 7 in the box, but with the DBs playing off and no motion, it could be a zone disguise. 

 

 

 

Luck fakes the handoff to the RB, which draws the LBs in and to the right, away from the trips side. The safety is still out of the picture. The routes on the left side take the outside receiver up field, the middle receiver flattens out to the sideline, and the inside receiver -- Moncrief -- sets up the DB for a skinny post. This is a good combo -- if it's man coverage, which it is, the inside receiver isn't in position to stop the quick throw, but if it's zone, everyone backs off and the middle receiver should be open in the flat with room to run.

 

 

The play fake has successfully opened up the middle of the field, since the LBs are now out of position and the inside DB is still too far away to defend the inside post. The middle receiver has the attention of his defender, so the quick throw to the outside wouldn't yield a lot of yardage or room to run. 

 

 

Luck makes the right decision and hits Moncrief in the middle of the field. He gets rid of the ball in under two seconds, which includes the fake handoff. The defender closes in and makes the tackle, and Moncrief picks up 9 yards, setting up 2nd and 1. This is a great drive starter against a potentially tricky coverage look. Good play call, well run. Credit where due. 

 

The next call is a run play, but the Luck and Gore mess up the handoff and the Chiefs recover, deep in Colts territory. The defense holds up, only giving up a FG attempt, which the Chiefs miss. The next time the Colts have the ball, they're still only down 3, instead of what could have been 6-10.

[Superman]

#2: Next possession, the Colts get the ball at the 20 and finally call a run play, which Gore takes for 6 yards. Then incomplete on a second level pass to Hilton, which is a little behind him. Hilton comes up lame, misses some time, and is limited the rest of the game (he wound up with 1 catch for 20 yards; two big plays were wiped out due to penalty). Luck scrambles for first down yardage on 3rd down. Now it's 1st and 10 from the 32. The Colts line up in a 2x2 with Luck in the shotgun, and both DBs on the right are 10 yards off, with the safety deep over the middle. 

 

 

 

Luck makes his read, but as their getting ready to snap the ball, the inside DB lines up over the offset receiver, leaving the TE uncovered. This is where good, sensible route combinations make life easy on the QB and the receivers. The defense's last second adjustment has potentially changed what the QB wanted to do, but the receivers are running a combination that puts the pressure on the defense.

 

 

It's another play action fake, this time drawing the inside backer, the Mike, down to the line of scrimmage and out of coverage. The TE is going to the flat, and the DB is going with him. Now the middle of the field is wide open. In other plays, we've seen the outside receiver run a lazy "route" to the sticks and turn around, right in front of the coverage. This time, Dorsett runs a slant -- YES, A SLANT -- across the open middle, well under the DB and the safety.

 

 

Luck again hot potatoes the ball in under two seconds, hitting Dorsett with no defender within five yards. Dorsett picks up an extra 7 after the catch, and it's 12 yard gain on 1st and 10. 

 

Ah, the miracle of good route combinations!

 

 

[Superman]

#3: Later in the same possession, it's 3rd and 3 from Colts territory still. There was an incompletion on a dropped pass to Devin Street (on the field because Hilton is out), then a Frank Gore screen(!) to the right side, gaining 7 yards.

 

 

They're lined up in a 2x2 with the TE on the right, but Street comes in motion to the left side to form a bunch. You can see DB22 coming across the formation with him, identifying man coverage, but the DB appears to be confused about the defensive call. The Chiefs already have one DB in off coverage on the left side.

 

 

Confusion abounds. Two DBs have their hands up, checking the call, and their both in off coverage. This should be working out perfectly for the Colts, who only need THREE YARDS for a first down.

 

 

This is where it gets ugly. Starting with the TE, who is running across the middle of the field, and he has separation from his man, but it won't matter until he clears the middle because the ILB has dropped into coverage. The TE was iso'd on the right side, but comes across the field where he won't come open right away. 

 

The 3 receivers on the left side all run straight up the field, into the coverage. Yes, into the coverage. None of them break, cut, or run any semblance of a pro football route until they're at least 10 yards upfield. On third and 3. With two of 3 DBs playing about 10 yards off. None of them cross or run a pick or anything to free up one of the others.

 

And look at Luck. None of his receivers are on the right side of the field, but his focus is to the right entirely. 

 

 

The protection breaks down pretty fast, before Luck can come back to the left side to see whatever the three receivers in the bunch are doing, whether they are open or not (they aren't). Doyle has cleared the middle, but Luck would have to throw across his body, putting the ball far outside to the left for Doyle to have a chance to make a catch, on what would be a risky attempt. 

 

Go back to the third image. If the middle receiver had run a simple slant, he'd be open across the middle, with room to run. The protection wasn't good, but Luck could have spit the ball out quickly before the pressure got there. I'm not sure why Luck is focused on the right side when 4 of his receivers are on the opposite side of the field, but this play shows a significant flaw in the approach, in what should be a simple third down conversion. The Chiefs are almost giving it to them. 

 

Poor play call, questionable execution. Fourth down, punt. (The punt touches down inside the 10, and the coverage team makes a miserable attempt to down it, but it rolls into the end zone for a touchback.)

[Superman]

Wanna see a TE screen? Again, credit where due. The Chiefs just scored a TD, then tried an onside kick, unsuccessfully. The Colts opened up with an honest run play, which Gore takes for 11 yards. Another run, then Swoope and Doyle have back to back 16 yard gains. For the first time, the Colts are in plus territory, and wind up at the Chiefs 18 with a first down.

 

#4: Luck is under center, the Colts have two TEs on the field, and Doyle is coming in motion from right to left. The Chiefs have 7 in the box, with 5 on the line (typical early down 3-4 alignment), and Doyle's motion reveals that the Chiefs are in zone coverage.

 

 

 

Play action, with the LG pulling to the right to sell it, and the ILBs are sucked in. The safety is coming to join the party, and Doyle is setting up as a blocker, inviting the OLB up the field. 

 

 

Once the OLB engages Doyle, Doyle is going to slip into the left flat. The LT and the C are releasing up the field to block for him. This is well designed, as it gets Doyle the ball behind two linemen who move pretty well in open space, and they only have two defenders to account for. (Kelly is a little more than one yard up the field, so there's room for fine tuning the execution.) 

 

This could have been a TD. The defender in the best position to make a play once Doyle catches the pass is the DL that Kelly has just released, but he's already behind the play.

 

The only reason Doyle can't make the catch is the OLB grabs him and pulls him down to avoid giving up the catch. The stupid refs don't call it.

 

 

The pass is incomplete, Doyle, Luck and Pagano protest, but still no flag. 

 

It's encouraging to see the Colts actually run a well designed screen pass effectively (aside from the penalty). And it's a well timed play call, as they set up the play action with back to back runs early in the drive, and their 2 TE set has yielded a couple of first down passes. The defense is on their heels, and then Chud calls this gem. Great play call, well run.

 

This is a lot different from bubble screens on the outside, which the Colts don't run well at all. But at least we know they have this one in bag, as long as the receiver doesn't get pulled down. 

[Superman]

There was still quite a bit of silliness throughout this game, but surprisingly enough, the gameplan wasn't the major issue. Poor execution, really bad OL play, some dropped passes, a couple bad turnovers, and a defense that had trouble getting off the field really cost us the game. I can nitpick the early run/pass balance, and there were still some plays that didn't make sense, but for the most part, the gameplan was more like what I would prefer. In many ways, it was similar to the Broncos gameplan from 2015. 

[DougDew]

Good breakdowns.

 

In the middle third and 3 sequence where there are trips to the left but Luck looks immediately right, it seems like he is focusing on Gore heading to the flat almost immediately.  Luck probably knows the pressure doesn't allow him to wait for what happens on the left, so he ignores it and watches Gore.