Will Colts Stay At 15 ?

[dw49]

I think maybe 50-50. Deep draft for positions the Colts need , so moving back makes obvious sense. Plus they have a lot of "holes" to fill. The problem is there will probably be a lot of teams looking to move back and it may be very difficult for the Colts to find a trading partner that will give them fair value. 

 

But I say 50-50 as I think there is a good chance they might make a small move up. Trading a 4th and a 2018 pick (another 4th) could well be enough to move to 13. I think this is possible as the Eagles at 14 have very similar needs to the Colts. Thus if there is one player they covet considerably more than others and AZ is on the clock , they could make the move.

[Rhane19]

depends who is on the board

[BProland85]

I can't see Ballard trading up in the 1st. I could definitely see him trade down to add more picks though unless an absolute defensive stud is available at 15. 

[Track Guy]

It's a hard maybe LOL. I think trading back is a lot more likely than trading up. If we don't, I would think some natural first round targets for us would be Derek Barnett, Charles Harris, Haasan Reddick, Forrest Lamp, Gareon Conley, or Rueben Foster. I bet at least 3 of them are still on the board when we pick at 15. But a trade back wouldn't be surprising.

[BProland85]

Here might be a good trade down partner...

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/04/20/giants-g-m-says-hell-move-up-in-draft-if-he-can/

[UKColt13]

I don't think they should but I think they will.

[MPStack]

I think they stay at 15 and should.

[dw49]

1 hour ago, Track Guy said:

It's a hard maybe LOL. I think trading back is a lot more likely than trading up. If we don't, I would think some natural first round targets for us would be Derek Barnett, Charles Harris, Haasan Reddick, Forrest Lamp, Gareon Conley, or Rueben Foster. I bet at least 3 of them are still on the board when we pick at 15. But a trade back wouldn't be surprising.

 

I would think Foster , one of the first 2 you have and Conley will be gone by 15. Lot depends on how many  WR's and QB's go in the first 15. Could be anywhere from 0 to 4.

[throwing BBZ]

 I believe we will find a trade back partner. KC would be good to pick up their 2nd.

[richard pallo]

4 hours ago, dw49 said:

I think maybe 50-50. Deep draft for positions the Colts need , so moving back makes obvious sense. Plus they have a lot of "holes" to fill. The problem is there will probably be a lot of teams looking to move back and it may be very difficult for the Colts to find a trading partner that will give them fair value. 

 

But I say 50-50 as I think there is a good chance they might make a small move up. Trading a 4th and a 2018 pick (another 4th) could well be enough to move to 13. I think this is possible as the Eagles at 14 have very similar needs to the Colts. Thus if there is one player they covet considerably more than others and AZ is on the clock , they could make the move.

I would trade up to 13 to get McCaffrey if he is there.  No one has mentioned it but I would seriously consider trading next years 1st. or 2nd. for a player or as part of a trade to move up and back into the 1st. round this year.  This draft is so deep in our major areas of need we should consider taking advantage of it even if it means giving up a future top pick.  I really don't expect us to be drafting this high in the draft next year so I think it makes sense to explore it.  Just my 2 cents. 

[Superman]

If I had to bet, as of today, I'd say no. 

 

These next 170 hours are going to drag on forever...

[PrincetonTiger]

I agree with Superman 

[dw49]

Just now, Superman said:

If I had to bet, as of today, I'd say no. 

 

These next 170 hours are going to drag on forever...

 

Ha ... try making a big black slash mark on you kitchen wall for every day that goes by. When you have 7 of them , turn ESPN or the football channel on. I promise you this will make the time go much quicker. But you must use paint or non washable thick black ink

[FalseStart]

For an extra second...or mo...trade back.  Draft to deep not to trade back.

[BProland85]

1 hour ago, throwing BBZ said:

 I believe we will find a trade back partner. KC would be good to pick up their 2nd.

 

I think KC would have to give up more than just their 2nd to move up 12 spots. 

[dgambill]

I don't think we trade out. I think we would like to pick up an extra pick or two but I think most teams are wanting to trade back. Possibly we could see some movement in rd 2 or 3 but that would likely only net us a late day 3 pick. I think we stay put and take a starter in the 1st.

[NewColtsFan]

 

Earlier today on ESPN,   Louis Riddick,  who has been rumored to be a future NFL GM,  said this about trades of picks during the draft......

 

He said within NFL circles,  the buzz is most EVERYONE wants to move down.     The problem is,  for every team that wants to mov down,  you have a have a partner,  another team that wants to move up.     And he doesn't think there are that many that will.

 

That makes trading down far, far more difficult than in most years.    And it may also mean that teams will have to accept smaller deals...    a discount on what you'd normally expect.     That might be the difference between doing a deal,   and NOT doing a deal....

 

[coltsfanatic24]

I think we stay at 15 and draft Conley, McKinley, or Reddick 

[dw49]

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Earlier today on ESPN,   Louis Riddick,  who has been rumored to be a future NFL GM,  said this about trades of picks during the draft......

 

He said within NFL circles,  the buzz is most EVERYONE wants to move down.     The problem is,  for every team that wants to mov down,  you have a have a partner,  another team that wants to move up.     And he doesn't think there are that many that will.

 

That makes trading down far, far more difficult than in most years.    And it may also mean that teams will have to accept smaller deals...    a discount on what you'd normally expect.     That might be the difference between doing a deal,   and NOT doing a deal....

 

 

 

Yeah , that what I said in my opening post. generally you need someone who wants to trade up if you want to trade down ? Where you get a lot of trade ups is when you have something like 15 legit first rounds talents and then a pretty big drop off. Or you have teams that really like a QB . If the Colts are able to move down , I think it would be a team looking to draft 1 of the 3 top QB's ? 15 seems like a decent spot that this could take place ? 

 

But bottom line is this is not a draft that teams will be looking to trade 2nd round picks to move from say 25 to 15. By the value chart that would be the normal value of those 10 spots. 

[AZColt11]

It takes two to tango.  Gotta have a trade partner.

[Tmoney]

If we can keep it within the top 20 I'm all for it. If foster or Reddick are still available then take them. If not trade back to TB or Den probably looking for McCaffery/Howard/Cook and take Jarrad Davis. Get an extra 3 and 5 and have 9 picks in the first 5 rounds.

[Sockerice]

I think we'll probably end up picking at 15.  I think we're more likely to move up in the 2nd or the 3rd using one of our 3 4th rounders.*

 

*disclaimer I know nothing about the pick trade value chart*

[ColtsBlueFL]

I say yes.  We 'get stuck' picking at #15.

 

Why?  Almost every team wants to trade down this year.  Very few will trade up.  Why?  QB's are not first round material and nobody stands out significantly above the others.  So teams needing a QB will get one round 1 (or maybe even round 2) without having to give up the farm to trade up.  The next reason is the parity of players in this draft. Gil Brandt summed it up succinctly this morning.  He stated the talent level disparity between  players from about pick #10 down to about pick #60 are very slim at most.

 

Too many males looking for a dance partner, and to few females to accept.  And those few have pick of the litter (best terms).  I think we get stuck at 15 unless a QB needy team takes another player early, and panics their QB selection will all be off the board by their next pick.  And there really isn't any other player worth giving up the farm to trade up and get. We'll see.

 

( base QB's not round one on skill set and plug and play ability in the NFL now, not ceiling and what they could develop in to)

 

Hmm.... should have read NCF's post before responding.  This basicly is an agreement post then. :-) 

[Dingus McGirt]

17 hours ago, Superman said:

If I had to bet, as of today, I'd say no. 

 

These next 170 hours are going to drag on forever...

Make that 153 hours, now, Supe...

 

[Superman]

59 minutes ago, Dingus McGirt said:

Make that 153 hours, now, Supe...

 

 

You're not making me feel any better...

[dw49]

17 hours ago, BProland85 said:

 

I think KC would have to give up more than just their 2nd to move up 12 spots. 

 

 

By the charts , which are probably too "high" this year , KC would be around 60 points short . That would be their 4th rounder. However as the thread has already stated .. it could be to move down , teams will probably need to accept less than other drafts have yielded. So probably in the trade you have with KC there is a good chance that would be the compensation.

[backshoulderfade]

Bold prediction: we move up in the 1st.

[Dingus McGirt]

30 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

You're not making me feel any better...

152...

[krunk]

  Falcons | Atlanta eyeing a move up in the draft    Fri Apr 21, 02:09 PM

Atlanta Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff believes there will be opportunities to move up from the 31st overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's D. Orlando Ledbetter, Atlanta has heavily scouted pass rushers. Missouri DE Charles Harris or Tennessee DE Derek Barnett are among those pass rushers who could be available in the 20s.

[rockywoj]

I predict yes, I anticipate they will stay at 15.

 

[dgambill]

On 4/20/2017 at 8:01 PM, NewColtsFan said:

 

Earlier today on ESPN,   Louis Riddick,  who has been rumored to be a future NFL GM,  said this about trades of picks during the draft......

 

He said within NFL circles,  the buzz is most EVERYONE wants to move down.     The problem is,  for every team that wants to mov down,  you have a have a partner,  another team that wants to move up.     And he doesn't think there are that many that will.

 

That makes trading down far, far more difficult than in most years.    And it may also mean that teams will have to accept smaller deals...    a discount on what you'd normally expect.     That might be the difference between doing a deal,   and NOT doing a deal....

 

That's my feeling as well. The only thing is that the tackle class is very weak with only 3 clear talents and a big drop off after that. These 3 should all go off the board between 15-25 in my opinion (albeit not a very informed one). We all know it only takes one team to get nervous their player won't be there but I think the best chance is a trade with a team targeting one of those lineman. The other player I think might be targeted around 15 would be McCaffery too. I think if you want to ensure you land one of those tackles our pick is the right value pick to jump up to. It would likely cost a mid 3rd or some kind of swap of maybe 2nd for our 3rd or some type of package like that depending how far back you go. But right after us tackle is in play for a lot of teams. This will be an exciting draft...but I'm not counting on us making big trades..it's a long shot we find the right partner to find a winning move.

[dgambill]

On 4/21/2017 at 11:35 AM, dw49 said:

 

 

By the charts , which are probably too "high" this year , KC would be around 60 points short . That would be their 4th rounder. However as the thread has already stated .. it could be to move down , teams will probably need to accept less than other drafts have yielded. So probably in the trade you have with KC there is a good chance that would be the compensation.

I would have to have their 2nd and with Ballard knowledge of their roster I would have to have a young player thrown in that he feels has upside. Can't give up that much and not get something...and Ballard knows their personel so he should be able to get a player he likes thrown in or no deal. Just my opinion.

[dgambill]

On 4/21/2017 at 3:22 PM, krunk said:

  Falcons | Atlanta eyeing a move up in the draft    Fri Apr 21, 02:09 PM

Atlanta Falcons general manager Thomas Dimitroff believes there will be opportunities to move up from the 31st overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft. According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's D. Orlando Ledbetter, Atlanta has heavily scouted pass rushers. Missouri DE Charles Harris or Tennessee DE Derek Barnett are among those pass rushers who could be available in the 20s.

We've seen Atlanta move up in the draft with great success but moving up that far...I just don't know. It would almost have to be for a future first imo. That's a huge jump and their would not be a first rd rated player left on the board for us at 31. Thus I don't think a trade up to 15 is doable for them. 20s perhaps....mid teens I think would take more capital then they want to spend. That is if your implying we trade with them.

[NewColtsFan]

7 minutes ago, dgambill said:

We've seen Atlanta move up in the draft with great success but moving up that far...I just don't know. It would almost have to be for a future first imo. That's a huge jump and their would not be a first rd rated player left on the board for us at 31. Thus I don't think a trade up to 15 is doable for them. 20s perhaps....mid teens I think would take more capital then they want to spend. That is if your implying we trade with them.

 

I took a look at the points value trade chart....

 

The Colts would need Atlanta's 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks....    and even then,  we'd be a few points short.

 

Hard to see the Falcons moving all that just for one player.

 

Personally,   I see Denver,  5 picks back, as the perfect trading partner.      They have two 3's and a history of being willing to trade up to get what they want...

 

[dgambill]

14 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

I took a look at the points value trade chart....

 

The Colts would need Atlanta's 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th round picks....    and even then,  we'd be a few points short.

 

Hard to see the Falcons moving all that just for one player.

 

Personally,   I see Denver,  5 picks back, as the perfect trading partner.      They have two 3's and a history of being willing to trade up to get what they want...

 

Yep they've been my go to team for a trade all offseason. They also covet both McCaffery and a starting tackle...a lot match up since they have that extra 3rd from the compensatory pick. 20 for us is a sweet spot as well as there is likely to still be a first rd quality player still there for us and anything more than 5 picks is hard to project how the rest of the round will play out. 5 or less should give us enough of an idea if one of our guys is likely to still be there.

That extra 3rd would mean a ton to us. Great flexibility and to me 3rd rd is where a RB would make sense for us. Where our roster sits right now we very much need a corner in the first two rds to project as a starter or at least immediate impact in a sub package. I am perfectly content to take BPA with our first pick whatever position that is...but imo if we don't take a corner rd 1 we have to position ourselves in rd2 even if it means moving back or up to land a the best corner on our board. It's just the way the roster has been assembled CB has become more than just a need it's a dire need...and a starter need not just we need players at that position. Perhaps we land a corner in rd1 and that changes things but if we don't it's hard to envision a 3rd pick or a free agent later on stepping is as a starter. Ballard obviously has purposely left corner unfilled on this team so he clearly has a plan to address it but I have a hard time buying into a plan that doesn't involve a corner in the first two rounds.

I want the best players we can get but if the draft fell to my preference it would mean OLB in 1st, cb in 2nd, RB 3rd, cb,G,lb in 4th and a safety in 5th. If we were able to move back and get another 3rd that would avail us to really have more flexibility in those first two picks to maybe take a RB earlier possibly as I do recognize it's a need for us even if I believe the defense is where our focus should be.

[Defjamz26]

After doing several mock drafts, watching our FA moves, looking ahead at the possible 2018 draft prospects, and Ballards comments, the conclusion I've come to is that the Colts almost have to move down from 15.

 

Major needs at ILB, CB, and OLB. You can't get all 3 the first 3 rounds without settling for inferior players. You can pass on ILB in the 1st but you won't have a Reddick, Davis, Foster, or Cunningham in the 2nd. You can pass on a CB round 1, but you won't see Conley, Humphrey, and maybe even Awuzie or Tankersly in the 2nd. And it's even harder at pass rusher. Do you take a Charles Harris at 15? Obviously you take Barnett there, but then you don't get a playmaking ILB and the CBs might fly off the board.

 

Somehow the Colts need to secure an extra 2nd or 3rd pick to really capitalize. Especially with two top CB picks (Jones and Moreau) who could drop due to injury I think you use Foster as trade bait and also consider trading Dorsett.

 

Foster might be can't miss for some teams, so if he's there at 15 I think you trade down with a team like Detroit (and someone who's good with the pick value stuff correct me if I'm wrong) for their 2nd. Then you take the best combination of OLB, CB, and ILB with 4 picks in the top 100. Ideally you take 2 CBs, an OLB, and a ILB though.

[Yoshinator]

6 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

After doing several mock drafts, watching our FA moves, looking ahead at the possible 2018 draft prospects, and Ballards comments, the conclusion I've come to is that the Colts almost have to move down from 15.

 

Major needs at ILB, CB, and OLB. You can't get all 3 the first 3 rounds without settling for inferior players. You can pass on ILB in the 1st but you won't have a Reddick, Davis, Foster, or Cunningham in the 2nd. You can pass on a CB round 1, but you won't see Conley, Humphrey, and maybe even Awuzie or Tankersly in the 2nd. And it's even harder at pass rusher. Do you take a Charles Harris at 15? Obviously you take Barnett there, but then you don't get a playmaking ILB and the CBs might fly off the board.

 

Somehow the Colts need to secure an extra 2nd or 3rd pick to really capitalize. Especially with two top CB picks (Jones and Moreau) who could drop due to injury I think you use Foster as trade bait and also consider trading Dorsett.

 

Foster might be can't miss for some teams, so if he's there at 15 I think you trade down with a team like Detroit (and someone who's good with the pick value stuff correct me if I'm wrong) for their 2nd. Then you take the best combination of OLB, CB, and ILB with 4 picks in the top 100. Ideally you take 2 CBs, an OLB, and a ILB though.

I was thinking of an idea. Trade down with the Giants or Chiefs if possible (Giants want to move up, and Ballard is on good term with the Chiefs), get a 2nd round pick. Take BPA on defense, then trade up with your two 2nds to move up to the end of the 1st. Lots of teams want to move down in this draft, so it wouldn't be impossible at all to find a trade partner. Couple things have to happen for it to work, but I think this scenario is somewhat realistic based on where everyone drafts and preferences to get two elite players.

[Defjamz26]

3 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I was thinking of an idea. Trade down with the Giants or Chiefs if possible (Giants want to move up, and Ballard is on good term with the Chiefs), get a 2nd round pick. Take BPA on defense, then trade up with your two 2nds to move up to the end of the 1st. Lots of teams want to move down in this draft, so it wouldn't be impossible at all to find a trade partner. Couple things have to happen for it to work, but I think this scenario is somewhat realistic based on where everyone drafts and preferences to get two elite players.

Possible, but then you've only got 3 picks in the top 100 again. And who are you taking with those two 1st rounders? A CB (assuming Conley and Humphrey are gone is a bit of a reach). OLB and ILB then? Maybe Harris and Davis? But then what do you do at CB? The depth of quality starters starts to run out by round 3.

[Yoshinator]

Just now, Defjamz26 said:

Possible, but then you've only got 3 picks in the top 100 again. And who are you taking with those two 1st rounders? A CB (assuming Conley and Humphrey are gone is a bit of a reach). OLB and ILB then? Maybe Harris and Davis? But then what do you do at CB? The depth of quality starters starts to run out by round 3.

I would wait til round 3 for a CB. Get something like Harris and Davis. Maybe Reddick and Watt. Some combination of two elite players to fix the linebacker corps. The CBs are very deep, and I have no doubt a couple 2nd round quality ones will fall to the 3rd round. Same thing here as with Moncrief in that WR class in 2014. Don't believe that they will all get picked according to a magical draft board. They are 10-15 deep, we'll get a good one in the 3rd like Tabor or Awuzie.

[BProland85]

12 minutes ago, Jared Cisneros said:

I would wait til round 3 for a CB. Get something like Harris and Davis. Maybe Reddick and Watt. Some combination of two elite players to fix the linebacker corps. The CBs are very deep, and I have no doubt a couple 2nd round quality ones will fall to the 3rd round. Same thing here as with Moncrief in that WR class in 2014. Don't believe that they will all get picked according to a magical draft board. They are 10-15 deep, we'll get a good one in the 3rd like Tabor or Awuzie.

 

I would love to get both Charles Harris and Jarrad Davis in the first 2 rounds. Awuzie won't be there in the 3rd though. If Ballard could swing a deal to trade down in the 1st, still get Harris, then swing back around and land Davis in the 2nd, and then draft Sidney Jones late 2/early 3 that would be quite the early haul for Ballard.