Jump to content
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts Fan Forum

Colts have a chance to make a major turn around in 2017


Legend of Luck

Recommended Posts

In 2015, the Atlanta Falcons went 8-8.

 

A year later, they were a play away from being Super Bowl Champions. 

 

 

The 2017 draft is insanely deep. I've watched every second of the combine coverage over the last 4 days, and there is one common theme: Teams will be finding second round talent on defense and at rb even into the fifth round.

 

With 5 picks in the first 4 rounds, and the chance to acquire more picks, there's a chance our Defense is leaps and bounds better than last year. Younger, faster, and hungry.

 

And then there's free angency. With the 7th most cap space available, we have the opportunity to bring in some elite talent to bolster our draft picks.

 

Look at the Denver Broncos. In one off season, they brought in Demarcus Ware, TJ Ward, Aquib Talib, and Emmanuel Sanders, all on big deals. What happened next? Superbowl Champions.

 

Imagine adding Zeitler or Lang.

Imagine adding Campbell or Poe.

Imagine adding Hightower or Perry.

Imagine adding Bouye or Gilmore.

 

Beyond those 8 talents, there are plenty of other impact players available to us as well.

 

All the fun starts tomorrow, but I think, with Ballard at the helm, and the best young QB in the league, we all should feel pretty excited for this year. GO COLTS!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, we have the chance, and I love being optimistic and hope that we can make that turn, but every other team in the league is getting the same draft opportunity we are players-wise. What's to say that the Vikings or the Buccaneers don't make that leap? I want us to win, and I hope we can, but unfortunately it isn't as easy as you're making it seem. Great thoughts thought!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

The Colts with improvement on Defense could easily go 10-6 or 11-5. Look at how many close games we lost this past season. Houston beat us by 3 and 5, Jags beat us by 3, Lions best us by 2. If our Defense was even Average we win all of those games IMO.

I agree, but the same could be said with our wins !! I think if we even have somewhat of a better pass rush we can beat anyone !!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Tracy Denton said:

I agree, but the same could be said with our wins !! I think if we even have somewhat of a better pass rush we can beat anyone !!

Yeah that is the key, with my first 2 picks I am drafting Pass Rush with either Barnett or Takk in Round 1 and in Round 2 if someone like Lawson is there I would take him for example. We also may pick up a Pass Rusher in Free Agency as well? Not sure. If we take Takk at 15, he wont be healthy until October as far as Football shape but that is fine IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Being 8-8 seems worse than it was. We have been so used to winning games and going to the playoffs when we didn't it was all doom and gloom mentally.

Most all season it was thought by most we were just a few players away from being back to where we were in Luck's first 3 seasons.

IMO that hasn't changed. The most telling thing is the fact when we hold other teams to under 19 points we win.

The bottom line is we need playmakers on the defense. Getting those playmakers in the draft will take time to work themselves out. With that said adding a couple of free agents will help.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Legend of Luck said:

In 2015, the Atlanta Falcons went 8-8.

 

A year later, they were a play away from being Super Bowl Champions. 

 

 

The 2017 draft is insanely deep. I've watched every second of the combine coverage over the last 4 days, and there is one common theme: Teams will be finding second round talent on defense and at rb even into the fifth round.

 

With 5 picks in the first 4 rounds, and the chance to acquire more picks, there's a chance our Defense is leaps and bounds better than last year. Younger, faster, and hungry.

 

And then there's free angency. With the 7th most cap space available, we have the opportunity to bring in some elite talent to bolster our draft picks.

 

Look at the Denver Broncos. In one off season, they brought in Demarcus Ware, TJ Ward, Aquib Talib, and Emmanuel Sanders, all on big deals. What happened next? Superbowl Champions.

 

Imagine adding Zeitler or Lang.

Imagine adding Campbell or Poe.

Imagine adding Hightower or Perry.

Imagine adding Bouye or Gilmore.

 

Beyond those 8 talents, there are plenty of other impact players available to us as well.

 

All the fun starts tomorrow, but I think, with Ballard at the helm, and the best young QB in the league, we all should feel pretty excited for this year. GO COLTS!

They were a number of plays away from being SB champs.  Too bad for them, they all went the Pat's way.  :^)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yeah that is the key, with my first 2 picks I am drafting Pass Rush with either Barnett or Takk in Round 1 and in Round 2 if someone like Lawson is there I would take him for example. We also may pick up a Pass Rusher in Free Agency as well? Not sure. If we take Takk at 15, he wont be healthy until October as far as Football shape but that is fine IMO.

I am a big Charles Harris fan, I would also be fine with one of the top corners.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Tracy Denton said:

I agree, but the same could be said with our wins !! I think if we even have somewhat of a better pass rush we can beat anyone !!

 

Yeah having a quality pass rush would be huge.  Atlantas D wasn't anything special but they were middle of the pack in sacks and one of the top teams in the league with regards to hurries.  Their offense however was a juggernaut.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm in total agreement with the OP with one caveat... 

 

I think that, with the schedule we have this upcoming season, we are bound to overachieve in the first year of our defensive reload. It should be a good confidence-builder for the new faces we will have at so many positions.

 

My hope is that we will reach "contender" status by the time the 2018 season rolls along. That isn't to say that we can't win it all in 2017... Anything is possible when you make the playoffs with a QB like Luck. 

 

I do think 8-8 is our rock bottom as long as Luck stays healthy. I don't expect any more .500 seasons for quite some time. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Legend of Luck said:

In 2015, the Atlanta Falcons went 8-8.

 

A year later, they were a play away from being Super Bowl Champions. 

 

 

The 2017 draft is insanely deep. I've watched every second of the combine coverage over the last 4 days, and there is one common theme: Teams will be finding second round talent on defense and at rb even into the fifth round.

 

With 5 picks in the first 4 rounds, and the chance to acquire more picks, there's a chance our Defense is leaps and bounds better than last year. Younger, faster, and hungry.

 

And then there's free angency. With the 7th most cap space available, we have the opportunity to bring in some elite talent to bolster our draft picks.

 

Look at the Denver Broncos. In one off season, they brought in Demarcus Ware, TJ Ward, Aquib Talib, and Emmanuel Sanders, all on big deals. What happened next? Superbowl Champions.

 

Imagine adding Zeitler or Lang.

Imagine adding Campbell or Poe.

Imagine adding Hightower or Perry.

Imagine adding Bouye or Gilmore.

 

Beyond those 8 talents, there are plenty of other impact players available to us as well.

 

All the fun starts tomorrow, but I think, with Ballard at the helm, and the best young QB in the league, we all should feel pretty excited for this year. GO COLTS!

 

 

Let's be clear about something......

 

Teams won't be finding guys with 2nd round grades in the 5th round....

 

But they'll find guys who wind up performing like 2nd rounders.     


There's a difference in those two things.

 

I don't doubt there will be a few teams that say the guy they took in the 5th round had a 2nd round grade...   I think Haeg may have had one for the Colts.     And the Colts also had Green and Clark as borderline 1st round picks.      And look where that GM is?      There's a reason why the turnover at GM is high in the NFL.   

 

Bad scouting, grading and stacking the board can get you fired.....

 

I just want to make sure that posters here don't think that all players from the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and into the 5th round all have 2nd round grades.    They don't.      Just want to make sure we're all on the same page.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, tucky89 said:

Any chance Pagano gets extended with a playoff appearance?

 

He doesn't need to be.  I think that he signed a 4 year extension before last year, so after this coming year he has 2 more years, if not let go in 2017.

 

If he is to get an extension, it should be at the conclusion of the 2018 season, for he would be heading into the final year of his contract in 2019.  Can't repeat that mistake of having a potentially lame duck coach.   

 

Ergo, I think if the Colts make the playoffs this coming year, then he is "retained" for the following year, and it is thereafter that decision time comes.  For 2019 you either have to fire him or give him an extension.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

 

Let's be clear about something......

 

Teams won't be finding guys with 2nd round grades in the 5th round....

 

But they'll find guys who wind up performing like 2nd rounders.     


There's a difference in those two things.

 

I don't doubt there will be a few teams that say the guy they took in the 5th round had a 2nd round grade...   I think Haeg may have had one for the Colts.     And the Colts also had Green and Clark as borderline 1st round picks.      And look where that GM is?      There's a reason why the turnover at GM is high in the NFL.   

 

Bad scouting, grading and stacking the board can get you fired.....

 

I just want to make sure that posters here don't think that all players from the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and into the 5th round all have 2nd round grades.    They don't.      Just want to make sure we're all on the same page.

 

Technically speaking, what you say is true, only 32 players can have 2nd round grades.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, rockywoj said:

Technically speaking, what you say is true, only 32 players can have 2nd round grades.

 

 

Actually,   the bold is not true either.

 

Only 32 players can get taken in the 2nd round is really the only truth.

 

But an unlimited number of players can have 2nd round grades,  or 3rd round or any round for that matter.

 

A player gets the grade he deserves no matter the round he's taken.     Some years there are 40-50 guys with 2nd round grades,  or 3rd round grades.     Seriously.    This will be one of those years.    The 2nd round grades will start toward the bottom of the 1st round,  run all the way through the 2nd,  and likely end up early in the 3rd round.       Really,   I'm not kidding.

 

The one round where there are typically NOT 32 players with the grade for that round is, ironically enough,  the first round.     No kidding.    Typically there are somewhere roughly between 16 and 24 guys with 1st round grades in any given year and the rest of the 1st round are the highest level 2nd round guys.     Seriously.

 

It's one of the many oddities of the draft....    and this goes in the draft for most any sport....

 

I know it seems somewhat counter-intuitive,  but this is the reality of the weird world of drafting....

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

 

Actually,   the bold is not true either.

 

Only 32 players can get taken in the 2nd round is really the only truth.

 

But an unlimited number of players can have 2nd round grades,  or 3rd round or any round for that matter.

 

A player gets the grade he deserves no matter the round he's taken.     Some years there are 40-50 guys with 2nd round grades,  or 3rd round grades.     Seriously.    This will be one of those years.    The 2nd round grades will start toward the bottom of the 1st round,  run all the way through the 2nd,  and likely end up early in the 3rd round.       Really,   I'm not kidding.

 

The one round where there are typically NOT 32 players with the grade for that round is, ironically enough,  the first round.     No kidding.    Typically there are somewhere roughly between 16 and 24 guys with 1st round grades in any given year and the rest of the 1st round are the highest level 2nd round guys.     Seriously.

 

It's one of the many oddities of the draft....    and this goes in the draft for most any sport....

 

I know it seems somewhat counter-intuitive,  but this is the reality of the weird world of drafting....

 

 

 

Well, I see what you are saying, but I disagree.

 

When you create a prospect ranking big board, say for your top 100 players listed in order from 1 to 100, only the first 32 have first round ranking.   Only players ranked 33 to 64 have 2nd round ranking, and so on for rounds thereafter.  

 

Now if you say the quality of player available, say from 65 to 96 are of a skill level that may have caused a higher round ranking, generally speaking, in drafts previous, that is all well and good, but for "this" draft, given how you rank them, it's simply not true.  To say otherwise is really just an illusion and misconception.  

 

You rank the players and only 32 can be first rounders.   Now if you say, for example, that at draft slot 32, there are 16 players ranked as an absolute tie, then I suppose at position 32 you can list 16 people alphabetically as being tied, so you can say there are more than 32 players with first round rankings, but then your next player listed after the tie would be ranked for draft slot 48.

 

As soon as you rank one player ahead of another, though, that drops the next player' slot ranking.  So, it is fine to say you can get a guy, that may have been talented enough to have been a 2nd round talent in previous drafts, but if you are talking THIS draft, if the player is big board ranked below slots 33-64, to call him a 2nd round talent is a lie based on your player rankings.  

 

It's simple math that can only be trumped by if you literally list a bunch of players as tied, which causes the next numbered slot to fall below the first pick of the next round.  If you don't have ties, though, because you have placed a slot rank preference of one player over another, then there is no tie and you go back to, I have player X ranked as pick # Y.  If player X is in a rank outside of picks 33-64, then you cannot say that, for this draft, you have a 2nd round grade on him, because it simply is not mathematically true. :-)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

The Colts with improvement on Defense could easily go 10-6 or 11-5. Look at how many close games we lost this past season. Houston beat us by 3 and 5, Jags beat us by 3, Lions best us by 2. If our Defense was even Average we win all of those games IMO.

Or if we get a coach who doesn't call a screen pass on 4th & 1. Or coaches that don't put the thought of not running in our QB head causing him to throw to a stone handed TE on 4th & 1 instead of scrambling. Or coaches like Belichick who don't play conservative defense just cause they're up by 2 with under a minute left or multiple TD's with 4mins left in the game

 

Eliminate those factors, Colts would be alright 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, TKnight24 said:

Or if we get a coach who doesn't call a screen pass on 4th & 1. Or coaches that don't put the thought of not running in our QB head causing him to throw to a stone handed TE on 4th & 1 instead of scrambling. Or coaches like Belichick who don't play conservative defense just cause they're up by 2 with under a minute left or multiple TD's with 4mins left in the game

 

Eliminate those factors, Colts would be alright 

Just a good defense will do. We don't have a terrible head coach 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've always compared the Colts to the Falcons because of the similar personnel. We were 8-8 last year and this is with Luck missing a game and having the worst defense in the league. We're not that far away from being a contender in the AFC. Two good defensive free agent signings and the first two defensive prospects we draft play well and we can turn this around in a year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

To play Devil's advocate...

 

Every team has the chance to make a big turnaround.  There are a thousand things that go into it.  For example, almost every fan base thinks their GM does a good job in the offseason in drafting and signing free agents.  That excitement and optimism doesn't always translate to on-the-field success (see: 2011 Philly Eagles).  Not only that, but bringing in talented players might not always relate to production and wins because of suspensions or injuries (see: Art Jones) or a guy simply not fitting the system (see: Nnamdi Asomugha to the aforementioned Eagles).  Furthermore, draft picks don't always work out, despite how much fan excitement there is (see: Bjoern Werner).  If you ask me, there are plenty of reasons to be excited, and plenty of reasons to temper expectations.  My approach is to be cautiously optimistic with tempered expectations.  I don't expect a Super Bowl run, but I also think we can do better than a 6-win season.  At the end of the day, you never know until the games are played and you see how the team is actually performing

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, 21isSuperman said:

To play Devil's advocate...

 

Every team has the chance to make a big turnaround.  There are a thousand things that go into it.  For example, almost every fan base thinks their GM does a good job in the offseason in drafting and signing free agents.  That excitement and optimism doesn't always translate to on-the-field success (see: 2011 Philly Eagles).  Not only that, but bringing in talented players might not always relate to production and wins because of suspensions or injuries (see: Art Jones) or a guy simply not fitting the system (see: Nnamdi Asomugha to the aforementioned Eagles).  Furthermore, draft picks don't always work out, despite how much fan excitement there is (see: Bjoern Werner).  If you ask me, there are plenty of reasons to be excited, and plenty of reasons to temper expectations.  My approach is to be cautiously optimistic with tempered expectations.  I don't expect a Super Bowl run, but I also think we can do better than a 6-win season.  At the end of the day, you never know until the games are played and you see how the team is actually performing

I agree.  I'm somewhere in between excited and tempered.   I'm more anxious to see what CB does in the next few days than anything else.  The new gm, new philosophy has got me curious

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, 21isSuperman said:

To play Devil's advocate...

 

Every team has the chance to make a big turnaround.  There are a thousand things that go into it.  For example, almost every fan base thinks their GM does a good job in the offseason in drafting and signing free agents.  That excitement and optimism doesn't always translate to on-the-field success (see: 2011 Philly Eagles).  Not only that, but bringing in talented players might not always relate to production and wins because of suspensions or injuries (see: Art Jones) or a guy simply not fitting the system (see: Nnamdi Asomugha to the aforementioned Eagles).  Furthermore, draft picks don't always work out, despite how much fan excitement there is (see: Bjoern Werner).  If you ask me, there are plenty of reasons to be excited, and plenty of reasons to temper expectations.  My approach is to be cautiously optimistic with tempered expectations.  I don't expect a Super Bowl run, but I also think we can do better than a 6-win season.  At the end of the day, you never know until the games are played and you see how the team is actually performing

Very true. And the Texans and Titans could both potentially be great teams next year.  But for me, with how the o-line improved toward the end of the year, Ballard saying he likes LeRaven and Haeg, I see our offense being great next year.(not to say it wasn't impressive this year) It's a draft made for us, and we have a new GM that imo is made for us also. We're going to get multiple starters on D in just the draft this year in my bold opinion. I think we win atleast one playoff game next year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, rockywoj said:

Well, I see what you are saying, but I disagree.

 

When you create a prospect ranking big board, say for your top 100 players listed in order from 1 to 100, only the first 32 have first round ranking.   Only players ranked 33 to 64 have 2nd round ranking, and so on for rounds thereafter.  

 

Now if you say the quality of player available, say from 65 to 96 are of a skill level that may have caused a higher round ranking, generally speaking, in drafts previous, that is all well and good, but for "this" draft, given how you rank them, it's simply not true.  To say otherwise is really just an illusion and misconception.  

 

You rank the players and only 32 can be first rounders.   Now if you say, for example, that at draft slot 32, there are 16 players ranked as an absolute tie, then I suppose at position 32 you can list 16 people alphabetically as being tied, so you can say there are more than 32 players with first round rankings, but then your next player listed after the tie would be ranked for draft slot 48.

 

As soon as you rank one player ahead of another, though, that drops the next player' slot ranking.  So, it is fine to say you can get a guy, that may have been talented enough to have been a 2nd round talent in previous drafts, but if you are talking THIS draft, if the player is big board ranked below slots 33-64, to call him a 2nd round talent is a lie based on your player rankings.  

 

It's simple math that can only be trumped by if you literally list a bunch of players as tied, which causes the next numbered slot to fall below the first pick of the next round.  If you don't have ties, though, because you have placed a slot rank preference of one player over another, then there is no tie and you go back to, I have player X ranked as pick # Y.  If player X is in a rank outside of picks 33-64, then you cannot say that, for this draft, you have a 2nd round grade on him, because it simply is not mathematically true. :-)

 

The reason why your version does not add up is this......

 

You want to give every player the most accurate grade they can regardless of draft round is because you want to know the strength of the draft.

 

So, for example,  the Colts are picking 15.    Suppose they want to trade down and collect picks, but they don't want to move out of the range of the range of players who have first round grades.    Say they have 25 players.      Then,  they don't want to drop further than pick 25.    They wouldn't trade down to pick 30.

 

Same happens for other rounds.....     If there are players with 2nd round grades at the top of the 3rd round board,  then you know you can trade back to the top of that round and still get a player with 2nd round quality.

 

I had this discussions recently with a poster in another thread.     The conversation was about 1st round guys and how teams have said that most years there aren't more than roughly 25 guys or so who have first round grades.     The rest of the round are guys with the highest second round grades.    Teams are pretty candid about this....       they may not always use their name,  they may say things anonymously,   but front office people will say that for the record.

 

I've been following this for 50 years,  and this is not a new trend.     Been this way for a long, long time.

 

EDIT:   The most famous example of knowing where the strength of a draft is is the 1986 draft for the San Francisco 49ers.    Bill Walsh thought the strength of the draft was in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds.     So, he traded back numerous times...       here's a great link that shows you what Walsh did and why....

 

It's an interesting read:

 

http://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/san-francisco-49ers/draft/1986

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On ‎3‎/‎6‎/‎2017 at 0:55 PM, Legend of Luck said:

In 2015, the Atlanta Falcons went 8-8.

 

A year later, they were a play away from being Super Bowl Champions. 

 

 

The 2017 draft is insanely deep. I've watched every second of the combine coverage over the last 4 days, and there is one common theme: Teams will be finding second round talent on defense and at rb even into the fifth round.

 

With 5 picks in the first 4 rounds, and the chance to acquire more picks, there's a chance our Defense is leaps and bounds better than last year. Younger, faster, and hungry.

 

And then there's free angency. With the 7th most cap space available, we have the opportunity to bring in some elite talent to bolster our draft picks.

 

Look at the Denver Broncos. In one off season, they brought in Demarcus Ware, TJ Ward, Aquib Talib, and Emmanuel Sanders, all on big deals. What happened next? Superbowl Champions.

 

Imagine adding Zeitler or Lang.

Imagine adding Campbell or Poe.

Imagine adding Hightower or Perry.

Imagine adding Bouye or Gilmore.

 

Beyond those 8 talents, there are plenty of other impact players available to us as well.

 

All the fun starts tomorrow, but I think, with Ballard at the helm, and the best young QB in the league, we all should feel pretty excited for this year. GO COLTS!

I'm excited....but I think you'll be disappointed if you think we are going after any of the guys on your list there. We all know we will make some moves but I think Ballard is going to take a measured approach to free agency..and focus on building through the draft and then use money to retain players.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, tucky89 said:

Any chance Pagano gets extended with a playoff appearance?

I think he will if we win the Division. Texans and Titans both are projected to be better this upcoming season so if we win the Division that would be a good season. To me with the Colts it just comes down to winning their close games whether we go 8-8 or 11-5. We didn't last season, we did in Luck's first 3 years and went 11-5. Like I posted earlier, Texans beat us twice by 3 and 5 points, Jags beat us by 3, and the Lions beat us on a last second FG. Even if we just win 2 of those games we would've been Division Champs and everyone in here would have a much different attitude moving forward.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Do not know how to take this but have been reading in different Packer forums where Packers fans seem to not have an urgency about retaining Nick Perry ( coming off an 11 sack season ) depending on the money he will ask for. Been reading on different websites that the Colts are interested in him.....GO COLTS !

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the moves the last several days have proven Ballard is in for the total defensive rebuild.  That's the only reason you would get rid of older, yet proven vets like Jackson and Adams.  He wants to get younger and faster, that is obvious.  So I think, even though you could potentially get 4 or 5 FA's and improve immediately, I don't get the impression that is Ballards goal.  I would be surprised if he signs more than a couple of proven vet players.  So even if he drafts heavy on defense, if you only get 2 guys from the draft that are "hits", you are still going to need 2-3 more guys for the defense to be "complete" IMHO.  This is how depleted I think they are.  So I think they can Improve this season, I don;t think they are going to be Superbowl caliber for another year or two.  I think Ballard is in this for the long haul and not a bandaid, quick-fix type thing.  And I'm on-board with that 100%.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 07/03/2017 at 3:27 AM, rockywoj said:

 

He doesn't need to be.  I think that he signed a 4 year extension before last year, so after this coming year he has 2 more years, if not let go in 2017.

 

If he is to get an extension, it should be at the conclusion of the 2018 season, for he would be heading into the final year of his contract in 2019.  Can't repeat that mistake of having a potentially lame duck coach.   

 

Ergo, I think if the Colts make the playoffs this coming year, then he is "retained" for the following year, and it is thereafter that decision time comes.  For 2019 you either have to fire him or give him an extension.

Sorry. Meant to ask if he comes back with a playoff appearance next season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • Thread of the Week

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • I think this is probably deserving of it's own thread, but I'll leave this initial response here. I'm happy to continue the conversation in another thread.   There are a couple of pertinent details that I don't think you're considering.   First, signing bonuses are due upon signing. They aren't necessarily paid upon signing. This article suggests signing bonuses can be paid over the course of 12-18 months. Some signing bonuses are paid in installments. So just because a player contract includes a $20m signing bonus doesn't mean the team is paying the player $20m the day he signs; the player might not receive that $20m for several months, a year, or longer. The pay dates for signing bonuses are almost never reported.   Second, a more comprehensive look at the contracts you mentioned would include roster bonuses. For example, while Buckner's contract did not include a signing bonus, it did include an $11m roster bonus. Spotrac shows the roster bonus was due to be paid on 3/20/2020, which was four days after Buckner's contract was signed. For cash flow purposes, there isn't necessarily a difference. (Ryan Kelly, $10m roster bonus; Kenny Moore, $8m; Mo Alie-Cox, $5.1m.)   Take a closer look at this. Buckner signed a four year extension for $84m, on top of his 5th year option, for a total value of five years, $96.4m. No signing bonus, but the $11m roster bonus, plus a base salary of $12.4m in 2020. The total cash paid to Buckner in the first year was $23.4m. The same day the Colts signed Buckner, the Niners signed Arik Armstead. His contract was five years, $85m, and included a $17.5m signing bonus (no details on the pay dates of the signing bonus). His base salary in 2020 was $2.5m. So the cash paid to Armstead in the first year was $20m, and that's assuming all of his signing bonus was paid out in 2020. In both cases, the Year 1 cash was about 24% of the total value of the contract.   Another example from the same year: Myles Garrett signed for five years, $125m, and his signing bonus and salary totaled $22m, less than 18% of the total value. The previous year, Frank Clark signed with the Chiefs for five years, $104m, with a $19m signing bonus, and a salary + incentives of $1.3m, totaling $20.3m in Year 1 cash, less than 20% of the total value.    There's also the funding rule, which requires that deferred money and fully guaranteed money is placed in escrow when the contract is signed, minus $15m. So if the Colts were offsetting lower signing bonuses with a higher percentage of guaranteed money, they would still need to fund the guaranteed money upfront. So there's really no cash flow benefit to the team; in fact, it would potentially cost the team more to fund the larger guarantees.    All of this put together, I don't think that the Colts are avoiding signing bonuses for cash flow reasons. I'm sure Irsay doesn't have the cash flow of the Rams or Broncos, etc., but I don't think the Colts are using contract structure to help cash flow. 
    • Nothing contradicts anything.   J’Ville if bad reckless spending and it got them one year of success out of 10.   No contradictions here.     As for Ballard, as he said at his year ender, the problem hasn’t been the FA spending or the roster.   The problem has been not being to get the quarterback right.  If Wentz had worked out, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.      I have no idea why you’d think Ballard should have considered the 4 big name players who Ballard didn’t pursue.   They went for HUGE money.   Ballard has zero interest in those guys.  As a fan who follows football closer than most I had zero interest in any of them.   And I had zero interest BEFORE they signed and it was expected they’d go for less.   I didn’t want them at most any price they would’ve wanted.    Of your longer list….  Frankie Luvu had some interest for me.  Maybe Geno stone.  Otherwise I believe there’s a list of safeties who are still available.   Remember Rodney McCloud?   Ballard signed him and he had perhaps the best year of his career.  Graded in the low 80’s for 1.7 mill.   That’s a Ballard signing.   People forget them.   They want bright lights and shiny new toys.     We should all know by now that’s not Ballard’s way.  
    • So spending to cover flaws works now? Seems to contradict you comment about the Jaguars.   To be clear, I don't want or expect Ballard to sign $35m/year players left and right. But there are plenty mid-range (pay-wise) guys who sign with other teams EVERY year that could've improved this roster.   This year OTOH: Frankie Luvu Sheldon Rankins Geno Stone Patrick Queen Jeremy Chinn Kevin Byard Jordan Fuller Sean Murphy-Bunting Kamren Curl   And several more expensive guys: Arik Armstead Christian Wilkins Bryce Huff Xavier McKinney Every year guys like these pass us by.
    • Off the top of my head….    Once.  Justin Houston who got 2/23.5.   And that worked out well.   
    • And those are about the best signings the Colts have done under Ballard in 8 years.    Has Ballard even spent over $10+m once in a FA? Gilmore maybe? That’s once. In going on 8 years.    Noone does what Ballard does and he hasn’t had success doing it, so noone’s trying to replicate it. 
  • Members

    • OhioColt

      OhioColt 385

      Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • Zoltan

      Zoltan 3,102

      Senior Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • Solid84

      Solid84 6,064

      Senior Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • Superman

      Superman 20,074

      Moderators
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • Hammer

      Hammer 327

      Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • NewColtsFan

      NewColtsFan 20,793

      Senior Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
×
×
  • Create New...