Superman's 2017 offseason mock (1.0)

[Superman]

I've been working on this for a little bit. I wanted to do two, one before the Combine and one after. This one is now influenced by the Combine, and FA starts on Tuesday/Thursday, so I probably won't do another one. I'm also still watching a lot of players that I haven't watched yet, so some of my rankings are based on my own grades and general consensus from other evaluators, including some here. 

 

I'll add that my mock drafts for my big mocks typically don't include trades, but my preference would be to trade out of #15. I don't really like the way the board is shaping up, and unless some QBs and RBs (and maybe John Ross??) go ahead of our pick, the very best defensive players will be gone. In the spoiler tag is my mock 1-14, just so you know. 

 

Browns -- Myles Garrett

 

Niners -- Jonathan Allen

Bears -- Mitchell Trubisky

Jaguars -- Leonard Fournette

Titans -- Jamal Adams

Jets -- Dalvin Cook

Chargers -- Malik Hooker

Panthers -- Solomon Thomas

Bengals -- Reuben Foster

Bills -- OJ Howard

Saints -- Jabrill Peppers

Browns -- Deshaun Watson

Cardinals -- Marshon Lattimore

Eagles -- Mike Williams

 

 

Colts cap standing: 2017 cap of $167m, rollover of $6.6m from 2016 = adjusted cap of $173.6m. As of today, Colts have committed $114m, cap space of ~$59m

 

Releases: Arthur Jones, saves $5.15m cap space

New cap position: $109m committed, cap space of ~$64m

 

Colts FAs:

Jack Doyle, four years, $23.5m (2017 cap hit $5m, 2018 cap hit $5.5m)

Erik Walden, three years, $18m (2017 cap hit $5m, 2018 cap hit $6m)

Robert Turbin, two years, $5m (2017 cap hit $2m, 2018 cap hit $3m)

Zach Kerr, RFA, one year, $1.8m

Quan Bray, ERFA, one year, $0.615m

Eric Swoope, ERFA, one year, $0.54m

Jon Harrison, Josh McNary, Hugh Thornton, Jordan Todman, Chris Carter, Darius Butler, Trent Cole, Mike Adams, not retained

Donte Moncrief, four year extension, $36m new money (five years, $7.5m/avg), (2017 cap hit $5.3m, 2018 cap hit $6.2m)

Jack Mewhort, four year extension, $27.9m new money (five years, $5.8m/avg), (2017 cap hit $4m, 2018 cap hit $4.8m)

> Added $21.2m to 2017 cap (added $25.5m to 2018 cap, none guaranteed)

>> New cap position in 2017 -- $130.2m committed, remaining cap space of $43.4m (committed ~$122m in 2018)

 

Free agent additions:

Bennie Logan, five years, $40m (2017 cap hit $7m, 2018 cap hit $7.5m, $11m cash); starting NT/1-tech, great run stuffer, has some ability to shoot upfield, great interior anchor (market value calc, link, link)

John Simon, four years, $20m (2017 cap hit $4m, 2018 cap hit $5m, $7m cash); starting caliber OLB, not a great pass rusher but plays solid on the edge, had some big games in 2016, and is young at 27; maybe overpaying a little bit, but not quibbling in a weird market

Jarvis Jones, two years, $5m (2017/2018 cap hit $2.5m, $2.5m cash); young player who hasn't lived up to first round status, has athleticism and ability to be Rush, would rotate as backup edge defender, if he has a good year he's still locked down, no guarantees in Year 2

Kayvon Webster, three years, $11.8m (2017 cap hit $3.4m, 2018 cap hit $4m, $4.2m cash); another young player, never been a starter, athletic ability to play outside corner, mentality to play safety, standout special teamer (market value calc)

Tim Lelito, three years, $7.2m (2017 cap hit $2.2m, 2018 cap hit $2.4m, $2.6m cash); veteran lineman who can play guard, has started at multiple positions in the NFL, could start at RG

> Added $19.1m in 2017, $21.4m in 2018 ($7.5m guaranteed)

>> New cap position in 2017 -- $149.3m committed, remaining cap space of $24.3m (committed ~$143.4m in 2018)

 

Draft:

1/15 -- Derek Barnett, Tennessee, edge/OLB, Rush backer in the Colts scheme, can be a very good pass rusher, compares to some 2nd tier pass rushers in the league right now, I'm not thrilled with his athleticism but he ran a great 3 cone, more importantly he's a proven producer in college, probably the surest thing outside the top 3 in the draft, high floor player, he has more bend than I initially thought; I was torn between him and Charlton, but ultimately Barnett being a surer thing vs Charlton's greater explosiveness and higher ceiling won me over

2/46 -- Gareon Conley, Ohio State, CB, can play both sides and in the slot, great ball skills and gets up to contest, physical in run support, good size and play speed, future starter; this was going to be Hasson Reddick before the Combine, because consensus was he was a second rounder even though I thought he was a top 30 player, now it's pretty obvious that consensus was wrong and he'll be gone well before #46

3/80 -- Justin Evans, Texas A&M, FS, has the awareness and range to play deep coverage, a physical player and playmaker, great production, lacks discipline at times

4/122 -- Wayne Gallman, Clemson, RB, tough and physical runner, competitive, has good body control and balance, decent acceleration, not elite open field speed, good production in the passing game

4/144 -- Alex Anzalone, Florida, ILB, rangy, physical, athletic off ball backer who was a high level recruit and on a path to being the next big thing, can play WILB in our system, his collegiate career was thrown off by injury, but he should be healthy now, if not for injury he'd be a top 50 player, IMO

5/158 -- Jon Toth, Kentucky, C/G, length to play guard, technically sound, good awareness, stays engaged once he's blocking, can get stronger to finish better

6/200 -- Ryan Switzer, North Carolina, WR, super productive, "quicker than fast," technically sound, good hands, secure punt returner, sorry to make the obvious small white receiver comparison but he's Wes Welker Jr.

> Added ~$6.2m to 2017 cap, $7.4m to 2018 cap

>> New cap position in 2017 -- $155.5m committed, remaining cap space of $18.1m (committed $150.8m in 2018)

 

Depth chart (draft picks in bold, FA additions in italics)

QB: Luck, Tolzien, Morris

RB: Gore, Turbin, Gallman, Ferguson

WR: Hilton, Moncrief, Dorsett, Rogers, Switzer, Bray, etc.,

TE: Allen, Doyle, Swoope

OL: AC, Mewhort, Kelly, Lelito, Clark, Haeg, Good, Toth, Reitz, Blythe, etc.,

 

DL: Logan, Anderson, Langford, Ridgeway, McGill, Parry, Kerr, etc.

Edge: Walden, Simon, Barnett, Jones, Ayers, Maggitt, etc.,

ILB: Jackson, Morrison, Anzalone, etc., (Geathers dime role)

CB: Davis, Robinson, Webster, Conley, Melvin, James, Morris, Milton, etc.

S: Green, Geathers, Evans, Farley, etc.,

 

K: AV

P: ?

LS: Overton

Full roster, plenty of competition, I think some veterans might not make the roster, and we're only carrying two QBs. We could break camp with around $20m cap space, and I have ~$151m committed in 2018 vs a conservative projected cap of $177m. Only FA I would seriously consider re-signing in 2018 is Vontae Davis. 

 

Not every need is met to my satisfaction, which no one should expect. But I think this roster is a jump start for the team in 2017 and can get back to the playoffs. And believe it or not, I really like all six draft picks and think they'd stick with the team in 2018. Still need a punter/KOS, which I would think is a UDFA.

[Andrew Luck fan club]

Love it. Multiple guys who can contribute their rookie seasons. 

[oldunclemark]

Good effort and detail....Supe

The acquisition attention here to defense is what we need..

....and also the acceptance that we cant solve every need..

Switzer will help us and I've seen what Webster can do on special teams

Bennie Logan would be the key

 

I know little about Barnett, I admit.

 

[OffensivelyPC]

Really a fan of this draft.  Even yoir later picks are good picks for the slot you are getting them, even though it may sound like im criticizing.  

 

Im a Justin Evans fan myself. I think he could move up draftboards with a solid showing tomorrow, so we will see. Its easy to love his style of play, though. 

 

My problem with Gallman is Clemson's offense, which is more power/gap oriented. Even their inside zone requires narrow scans of his blockers. He does have a good running style, and had he not been on a team with an entire WR/TE depth chart of NFL talent, he mightve seen more usage in the pass game (it didnt help Watson opt to tuck and run after his 1st/2nd reads werent there).  But we have to hope he makes the jump that guys like Trent Richardson never did. Possible, but a tough transition for a team like the Colts who are running less of the gap blocking stuff.

 

Anzalone, agree on your player assessment, feel differently on his injury history, though. Hes missed substantial time, one has to wonder if hes one of those guys who is just more injury prone than others are. 

 

Dont know enough about the last 2 picks.

[Superman]

16 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Anzalone, agree on your player assessment, feel differently on his injury history, though. Hes missed substantial time, one has to wonder if hes one of those guys who is just more injury prone than others are. 

 

I'm not too concerned with the arm, or that he could just be one of those injury prone guys. I think most of the time injuries just happen. 

 

But the shoulder could be a problem. Two labrum injuries on the same shoulder. I've been told that shoulder issues have a greater tendency to be recurrent than other injuries, even after they've been given adequate time to heal. The more time passes, the assumption is that you're less likely to have a recurrence. I haven't heard anything about his medical recheck at the Combine.

 

That said, I'm okay with taking that risk at the end of the 4th for a guy with huge upside. 

 

Edit: On Gallman, your concern about him in a more zone based attack is legitimate. He doesn't have great vision or anticipation, and he gets impatient. But Gore and Turbin would still be ahead of him this year, allowing him time to get acclimated to Colts system. And in the meantime, he can be a factor in sub packages and special teams. 

[funktacious2]

Really good overall. I really hope we go for Simon. He sets the edge well and should be an upgrade over Walden in run support (which may make Walden expendable IMO), and he had his most improved year in pass rushing this year. We'd get a nice starting caliber OLB w/o the huge contract Perry might get. The draft is good, especially since I can't find any player I would be upset picking. I have my preferences over certain picks, but who doesn't? Great job!

[IrishColt22]

I really like the plan you've made and how you've controlled the cap situation considering the committed money and rollover as well as adding the extension this year to Moncrief and Mewhort and keep the continuity going, i'm really impressed. 

 

[bananabucket]

I agree about trading out of 15.  We're on the borderline between two tiers of prospects IMO.  Sometimes a guy or two slip through the cracks, sometimes you just have to settle.  Half the teams would "like" to trade back though, so I'm not holding my breath.

 

 

I like your draft.  Pretty realistic with your choices.  I've found it pretty difficult to put together a whole draft, because since we have so many holes, we're bound to neglect certain positions.  I've also been trying to make room for some OL/DL since Ballard preaches winning in the trenches.  Gotta figure he's gonna take at least a couple big boys.

[Bluefire4]

I'd still be concerned with the pass rush honestly but this is the type of offseason I think we will have. No super flashy signings but addressing areas of need.

[Tmoney]

 

3 hours ago, Superman said:

I've been working on this for a little bit. I wanted to do two, one before the Combine and one after. This one is now influenced by the Combine, and FA starts on Tuesday/Thursday, so I probably won't do another one. I'm also still watching a lot of players that I haven't watched yet, so some of my rankings are based on my own grades and general consensus from other evaluators, including some here. 

 

I'll add that my mock drafts for my big mocks typically don't include trades, but my preference would be to trade out of #15. I don't really like the way the board is shaping up, and unless some QBs and RBs (and maybe John Ross??) go ahead of our pick, the very best defensive players will be gone. In the spoiler tag is my mock 1-14, just so you know. 

  Hide contents

Browns -- Myles Garrett

 

Niners -- Jonathan Allen

Bears -- Mitchell Trubisky

Jaguars -- Leonard Fournette

Titans -- Jamal Adams

Jets -- Dalvin Cook

Chargers -- Malik Hooker

Panthers -- Solomon Thomas

Bengals -- Reuben Foster

Bills -- OJ Howard

Saints -- Jabrill Peppers

Browns -- Deshaun Watson

Cardinals -- Marshon Lattimore

Eagles -- Mike Williams

 

 

Colts cap standing: 2017 cap of $167m, rollover of $6.6m from 2016 = adjusted cap of $173.6m. As of today, Colts have committed $114m, cap space of ~$59m

 

Releases: Arthur Jones, saves $5.15m cap space

New cap position: $109m committed, cap space of ~$64m

 

Colts FAs:

Jack Doyle, four years, $23.5m (2017 cap hit $5m, 2018 cap hit $5.5m)

Erik Walden, three years, $18m (2017 cap hit $5m, 2018 cap hit $6m)

Robert Turbin, two years, $5m (2017 cap hit $2m, 2018 cap hit $3m)

Zach Kerr, RFA, one year, $1.8m

Quan Bray, ERFA, one year, $0.615m

Eric Swoope, ERFA, one year, $0.54m

Jon Harrison, Josh McNary, Hugh Thornton, Jordan Todman, Chris Carter, Darius Butler, Trent Cole, Mike Adams, not retained

Donte Moncrief, four year extension, $36m new money (five years, $7.5m/avg), (2017 cap hit $5.3m, 2018 cap hit $6.2m)

Jack Mewhort, four year extension, $27.9m new money (five years, $5.8m/avg), (2017 cap hit $4m, 2018 cap hit $4.8m)

> Added $21.2m to 2017 cap (added $25.5m to 2018 cap, none guaranteed)

>> New cap position in 2017 -- $130.2m committed, remaining cap space of $43.4m (committed ~$122m in 2018)

 

Free agent additions:

Bennie Logan, five years, $40m (2017 cap hit $7m, 2018 cap hit $7.5m, $11m cash); starting NT/1-tech, great run stuffer, has some ability to shoot upfield, great interior anchor (market value calc, link, link)

John Simon, four years, $20m (2017 cap hit $4m, 2018 cap hit $5m, $7m cash); starting caliber OLB, not a great pass rusher but plays solid on the edge, had some big games in 2016, and is young at 27; maybe overpaying a little bit, but not quibbling in a weird market

Jarvis Jones, two years, $5m (2017/2018 cap hit $2.5m, $2.5m cash); young player who hasn't lived up to first round status, has athleticism and ability to be Rush, would rotate as backup edge defender, if he has a good year he's still locked down, no guarantees in Year 2

Kayvon Webster, three years, $11.8m (2017 cap hit $3.4m, 2018 cap hit $4m, $4.2m cash); another young player, never been a starter, athletic ability to play outside corner, mentality to play safety, standout special teamer (market value calc)

Tim Lelito, three years, $7.2m (2017 cap hit $2.2m, 2018 cap hit $2.4m, $2.6m cash); veteran lineman who can play guard, has started at multiple positions in the NFL, could start at RG

> Added $19.1m in 2017, $21.4m in 2018 ($7.5m guaranteed)

>> New cap position in 2017 -- $149.3m committed, remaining cap space of $24.3m (committed ~$143.4m in 2018)

 

Draft:

1/15 -- Derek Barnett, Tennessee, edge/OLB, Rush backer in the Colts scheme, can be a very good pass rusher, compares to some 2nd tier pass rushers in the league right now, I'm not thrilled with his athleticism but he ran a great 3 cone, more importantly he's a proven producer in college, probably the surest thing outside the top 3 in the draft, high floor player, he has more bend than I initially thought; I was torn between him and Charlton, but ultimately Barnett being a surer thing vs Charlton's greater explosiveness and higher ceiling won me over

2/46 -- Gareon Conley, Ohio State, CB, can play both sides and in the slot, great ball skills and gets up to contest, physical in run support, good size and play speed, future starter; this was going to be Hasson Reddick before the Combine, because consensus was he was a second rounder even though I thought he was a top 30 player, now it's pretty obvious that consensus was wrong and he'll be gone well before #46

3/80 -- Justin Evans, Texas A&M, FS, has the awareness and range to play deep coverage, a physical player and playmaker, great production, lacks discipline at times

4/122 -- Wayne Gallman, Clemson, RB, tough and physical runner, competitive, has good body control and balance, decent acceleration, not elite open field speed, good production in the passing game

4/144 -- Alex Anzalone, Florida, ILB, rangy, physical, athletic off ball backer who was a high level recruit and on a path to being the next big thing, can play WILB in our system, his collegiate career was thrown off by injury, but he should be healthy now, if not for injury he'd be a top 50 player, IMO

5/158 -- Jon Toth, Kentucky, C/G, length to play guard, technically sound, good awareness, stays engaged once he's blocking, can get stronger to finish better

6/200 -- Ryan Switzer, North Carolina, WR, super productive, "quicker than fast," technically sound, good hands, secure punt returner, sorry to make the obvious small white receiver comparison but he's Wes Welker Jr.

> Added ~$6.2m to 2017 cap, $7.4m to 2018 cap

>> New cap position in 2017 -- $155.5m committed, remaining cap space of $18.1m (committed $150.8m in 2018)

 

Depth chart (draft picks in bold, FA additions in italics)

QB: Luck, Tolzien, Morris

RB: Gore, Turbin, Gallman, Ferguson

WR: Hilton, Moncrief, Dorsett, Rogers, Switzer, Bray, etc.,

TE: Allen, Doyle, Swoope

OL: AC, Mewhort, Kelly, Lelito, Clark, Haeg, Good, Toth, Reitz, Blythe, etc.,

 

DL: Logan, Anderson, Langford, Ridgeway, McGill, Parry, Kerr, etc.

Edge: Walden, Simon, Barnett, Jones, Ayers, Maggitt, etc.,

ILB: Jackson, Morrison, Anzalone, etc., (Geathers dime role)

CB: Davis, Robinson, Webster, Conley, Melvin, James, Morris, Milton, etc.

S: Green, Geathers, Evans, Farley, etc.,

 

K: AV

P: ?

LS: Overton

Full roster, plenty of competition, I think some veterans might not make the roster, and we're only carrying two QBs. We could break camp with around $20m cap space, and I have ~$151m committed in 2018 vs a conservative projected cap of $177m. Only FA I would seriously consider re-signing in 2018 is Vontae Davis. 

 

Not every need is met to my satisfaction, which no one should expect. But I think this roster is a jump start for the team in 2017 and can get back to the playoffs. And believe it or not, I really like all six draft picks and think they'd stick with the team in 2018. Still need a punter/KOS, which I would think is a UDFA.

Not a fan. The FA signings have no impactful players, not saying we can get every top FA but these guys dont elevate a D they fill out your D when you have stars around them. Its my opinion but Barnett is overrated and in a 3-4 he will not be successful. Love gareon Conley plays inside and out. I like Justin Evans but he's more of a SS dont agree that he has the range to play FS. Wayne Gallman could be a nice RB learning behind Frank for at least 1 more year. Really like Alex, if he makes it to the 4th I'd even take him with the first one. Siwtzer does not make it to the 6th that would be pretty insane. My opinion tho, appreciate the time you put into it

Bleed blue

[akcolt]

I like what you did in FA for the most part. I love Logan at NT. He is a favorite of mine in FA. That is the plug we need in the middle. 

 

CB Webster is a good signing. He's going to want a chance to start. We are the perfect place for him. I don't think Robinson or Melvin will scare him. 

 

Letitlo could win the starting RG spot. He turned down more money from the Cowboys for a shot to start in NO. He can play C too. He could make Harrison and Blythe expendable.

 

The 2 edge signings is where you lost me. I like Simon and Jones don't get me wrong. I don't see either helping much with the pass rush. If we bring those 2 in why resign Walden? That's money on 3 guys at Edge who don't get to the QB consistently. 

 

Would it be better to pick 2 of Walden Jones and Simon? We could use the money to bring in a guy like Hodges or someone else to help at ILB. I like Hodges I think he's underrated in coverage. I think he'll want a short prove it deal. 

 

The draft I am not sold on Barnett at 15. I was on the fence about him going into the combine. The 4.44 short shuttle jumps out at me. I know he has the college numbers but I am hesitant. I'd probably go Taco and the upside if we go Edge at 15. Thomas is coming off in the top 10 that dream is dead. 

 

I like adding Conley and Evans to the back end. Evans is a big hitter I really like that pick. Conley a future #1 CB. 

 

Anzalone I see what you are doing. It seems to early to roll the dice in this draft. Can we get a sleeper at Edge Mathis Carraway Fields the kid from WV? I would look to add more pass rush.

 

This does a lot of nice things. I am hoping we can get a little more juice up front on D. I would like to add more to the pass rush than Barnett. 

 

Did you see Williams 4.57 in the short shuttle?  I wouldn't touch that guy. Lawson 4.19 was impressive. He's a 1st round talent that can't stay healthy. 

[Defjamz26]

Like how you made a FA moves without overpaying for a big name guy. Draft looks good too. Conley jumps off the screen and Barnett had an underrated day. Like Justin Evans and Wayne Gallman as well. I don't think Switzer is there late though. He's a matchup nightmare for a team like NO or NE.

[Dingus McGirt]

52 minutes ago, Defjamz26 said:

Like how you made a FA moves without overpaying for a big name guy. Draft looks good too. Conley jumps off the screen and Barnett had an underrated day. Like Justin Evans and Wayne Gallman as well. I don't think Switzer is there late though. He's a matchup nightmare for a team like NO or NE.

Switzer was amazing for the Tar Heels. Great returner, great slot receiver.

[krunk]

I can see us drafting Barnett. Saw Pagano up in the booth watching with a good level of attention when Barnett ran.

[Smonroe]

Wow, extremely thought out.  Send it in to our new GM, you'll save him hours of work.

 

I was never crazy about Gallman and don't know much about the later round picks.  Obviously, you've done the research.  I'm looking forward to your post combine report.

[BlueShoe]

@Superman

 

Very nicely done!

 

I too would like to see us keep our own with the extra money we have. Signing some of our players now, will make it easier on us down the road, and provide a larger window for success. It's the Bill Polian approach, and Ballard has certainly talked about it the same way. 

[krunk]

Can't you see us drafting Barnett and Pagano talking about how much Grit he showed pushing through the combine with a Flu?   He likes stuff like that just like the Antonio Morrison story.  "Guy just had a catheter taken out of his chest.  Was told not to be there".    LOL

[OffensivelyPC]

8 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I'm not too concerned with the arm, or that he could just be one of those injury prone guys. I think most of the time injuries just happen. 

 

But the shoulder could be a problem. Two labrum injuries on the same shoulder. I've been told that shoulder issues have a greater tendency to be recurrent than other injuries, even after they've been given adequate time to heal. The more time passes, the assumption is that you're less likely to have a recurrence. I haven't heard anything about his medical recheck at the Combine.

 

That said, I'm okay with taking that risk at the end of the 4th for a guy with huge upside. 

 

Edit: On Gallman, your concern about him in a more zone based attack is legitimate. He doesn't have great vision or anticipation, and he gets impatient. But Gore and Turbin would still be ahead of him this year, allowing him time to get acclimated to Colts system. And in the meantime, he can be a factor in sub packages and special teams. 

The upside an Anzalone is enticing. I know its kind of impossible, but Id be curious who else wouldve been there in your mock. The 4th round is usually a good place to tak a guy with day 2 upside, but fell for reasons like Anzalone. 

[chad72]

Derek Barnett is a bum. 

[ztboiler]

9 hours ago, Superman said:

I've been working on this for a little bit. I wanted to do two, one before the Combine and one after. 

  Reveal hidden contents

Browns -- Myles Garrett

 

Niners -- Jonathan Allen

Bears -- Mitchell Trubisky

Jaguars -- Leonard Fournette

Titans -- Jamal Adams

Jets -- Dalvin Cook

Chargers -- Malik Hooker

Panthers -- Solomon Thomas

Bengals -- Reuben Foster

Bills -- OJ Howard

Saints -- Jabrill Peppers

Browns -- Deshaun Watson

Cardinals -- Marshon Lattimore

Eagles -- Mike Williams

 

 

 

Love this approach.  I'm always more intrigued by mocks that mirror the way I believe our front office will act more than those that fit what I want as a fan.

 

Some interesting forks in the decision tree....Bennie Logan is getting close to Hankins money at 8M per.  Hankins might be more disruptive and worth a premium.  

 

Most intriguing is the activity at ILB.  Though we can't address everything, as you noted, and I like Anzalone in the 4th, we'll have opportunities to do more there, and I think we have to bring in at least one mid level guy who has some NFL snaps.  There are plenty of cost effective options on the market that could fill a gap for the year while we draft and develop.  I don't think we can go to the draft with only Morrison, who may not make the team, and Jackson on the depth chart.

[coltsfanatic24]

Solid draft and free agency. I like Barnett as a player, but I think there is better value at CB in the first round and some good pass rushers in free agency. This is a great CB class and we need a sure thing. They passed on Xavier Rhodes and it was a mistake. Sidney Jones and Marlon Humphrey are both blue chip prospects at CB and one should be available with our first round pick. We just can't go into next season with Davis as the only good CB on the roster and expect to have a good pass defense.  

[SteelCityColt]

@Superman solid work as ever, I appreciate the time that goes into this sort of post where you've considered all the angles like a GM would have to in the real world rather than just reeling off a list of FAs that the FO must sign regardless of things like cap space. 

 

I would like personally to have seen Butler retained but it's not a massive blow. I'm curious too about your selection of Evans in the 3rd round, who would expect to be the opening day starter, him or Green? 

 

Once again good work, keep at it, I'm sure the Browns will be looking for a GM in the near future...

[PrincetonTiger]

Great job 

 

Love the Toth pick

[Superman]

11 hours ago, Bluefire4 said:

I'd still be concerned with the pass rush honestly but this is the type of offseason I think we will have. No super flashy signings but addressing areas of need.

 

We would still need to manufacture the pass rush, no standout rushers would be on the roster. But I don't see a surefire fix for that this offseason. 

[stitches]

6 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

We would still need to manufacture the pass rush, no standout rushers would be on the roster. But I don't see a surefire fix for that this offseason. 

Would you draft Jonathan Allen if he falls to us. A lot of people are dropping hm down mock drafts because of some shoulder concerns and because of his not so stellar athletic tests at the combine?

[Superman]

9 hours ago, Tmoney said:

 

Not a fan. The FA signings have no impactful players, not saying we can get every top FA but these guys dont elevate a D they fill out your D when you have stars around them. Its my opinion but Barnett is overrated and in a 3-4 he will not be successful. Love gareon Conley plays inside and out. I like Justin Evans but he's more of a SS dont agree that he has the range to play FS. Wayne Gallman could be a nice RB learning behind Frank for at least 1 more year. Really like Alex, if he makes it to the 4th I'd even take him with the first one. Siwtzer does not make it to the 6th that would be pretty insane. My opinion tho, appreciate the time you put into it

Bleed blue

 

I don't think there are really any standout FA available at the positions we need. I think Logan would be a great interior anchor, and keeping Walden and adding Simon makes the edges harder to run around. Get Langford and Anderson back at a high level and I think the run defense is in good shape. That's where the defense is elevated. 

 

Disagree about Barnett. I'm not head over heels in love with him, but I have no problem with him as a Rush prospect in a 3-4, and a couple years down the line he should be a nice pass rush threat. Not Khalil Mack, but a 10 sack guy, yes. And he has a high floor. 

 

Let's assume Switzer is available at #200. I've seen most people have him between 170-220. I don't think anyone can say for sure that he will or won't be there. 

[Superman]

11 minutes ago, stitches said:

Would you draft Jonathan Allen if he falls to us. A lot of people are dropping hm down mock drafts because of some shoulder concerns and because of his not so stellar athletic tests at the combine?

 

Unless medical has him as damaged goods, yes, without any hesitation. 

[PeterBowman]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I don't think there are really any standout FA available at the positions we need. I think Logan would be a great interior anchor, and keeping Walden and adding Simon makes the edges harder to run around. Get Langford and Anderson back at a high level and I think the run defense is in good shape. That's where the defense is elevated. 

 

Disagree about Barnett. I'm not head over heels in love with him, but I have no problem with him as a Rush prospect in a 3-4, and a couple years down the line he should be a nice pass rush threat. Not Khalil Mack, but a 10 sack guy, yes. And he has a high floor. 

 

Let's assume Switzer is available at #200. I've seen most people have him between 170-220. I don't think anyone can say for sure that he will or won't be there. 

also Barnett's not a liability in the run game either.

[Superman]

9 hours ago, akcolt said:

The 2 edge signings is where you lost me. I like Simon and Jones don't get me wrong. I don't see either helping much with the pass rush. If we bring those 2 in why resign Walden? That's money on 3 guys at Edge who don't get to the QB consistently. 

 

Would it be better to pick 2 of Walden Jones and Simon? We could use the money to bring in a guy like Hodges or someone else to help at ILB. I like Hodges I think he's underrated in coverage. I think he'll want a short prove it deal. 

 

What edge rushers are available that are going to upgrade the pass rush? Do you want Perry at $8-10m/year? I don't believe in him. I don't believe in Sheard. Who else is there? 

 

I was going for a stable of disciplined edge players who can contain in the run game, without breaking the bank. IMO, the run defense would have the potential to be rock solid with this front, rotating Simon, Walden, Ayers, Jones and Barnett. And Ayers, Jones and Barnett have the potential to be dangerous situational pass rushers. Walden gave us 11 sacks last year by default, and Simon can give you a handful with or without JJ Watt. Still a manufactured front, still would need to bring 5, but hopefully you shut down opposing run games and get more pass rush situations.

 

By the way, I'm not reliant on Jones. I would be giving him a small signing bonus, and the structure of the deal would be a prove-it type structure. If the change of scenery and competition doesn't bring out the best in him, he might not make the final 53. 

 

Given the landscape this offseason and the way I see the board and the draft, I opted to focus on the run defense and improve the secondary. Hopefully we'd be able to have a better version of the 2014 defense, which got 44 sacks without Mathis.

 

Quote

The draft I am not sold on Barnett at 15. I was on the fence about him going into the combine. The 4.44 short shuttle jumps out at me. I know he has the college numbers but I am hesitant. I'd probably go Taco and the upside if we go Edge at 15. Thomas is coming off in the top 10 that dream is dead. 

 

You don't have to talk me into Taco. I'm a fan. Just worried about his floor. He has one year of production, vs. Barnett's three years. Barnett is more disciplined and plays with better awareness, and while he doesn't show up as an explosive edge rusher, he doesn't really have any weaknesses to his game. His ability to beat blockers straight up should translate easily to the pros. 

 

Quote

 

Anzalone I see what you are doing. It seems to early to roll the dice in this draft. Can we get a sleeper at Edge Mathis Carraway Fields the kid from WV? I would look to add more pass rush.

 

This does a lot of nice things. I am hoping we can get a little more juice up front on D. I would like to add more to the pass rush than Barnett. 

 

 

I think it's going to take multiple years of good drafting to fix the pass rush. I don't see any of the later pass rushers as being guys you reach for when there's a better player on the board, and I think Anzalone has top 50 talent. 

[Superman]

7 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

Like how you made a FA moves without overpaying for a big name guy. Draft looks good too. Conley jumps off the screen and Barnett had an underrated day. Like Justin Evans and Wayne Gallman as well. I don't think Switzer is there late though. He's a matchup nightmare for a team like NO or NE.

 

Switzer should be a matchup nightmare for the Colts. It's 50/50 whether he'd be there or not, but he has some knocks, and we've seen players like him go undrafted in recent years. 

[krunk]

 

Colts have Interest in Jack Crawford.  6'5"  274lbs

 

http://www.stampedeblue.com/2017/3/6/14831298/report-colts-have-interest-in-defensive-end-jack-crawford

 

 

 

[Superman]

4 hours ago, ztboiler said:

Some interesting forks in the decision tree....Bennie Logan is getting close to Hankins money at 8M per.  Hankins might be more disruptive and worth a premium.  

 

Most intriguing is the activity at ILB.  Though we can't address everything, as you noted, and I like Anzalone in the 4th, we'll have opportunities to do more there, and I think we have to bring in at least one mid level guy who has some NFL snaps.  There are plenty of cost effective options on the market that could fill a gap for the year while we draft and develop.  I don't think we can go to the draft with only Morrison, who may not make the team, and Jackson on the depth chart.

 

I see Hankins getting $10-12m/year. He's two years younger than Logan, and gets in the backfield more often. Logan is the more conservative signing, but I think you can get him on a more balanced contract structure, less guaranteed money, and I think he takes care of the interior anchor just as well. He also doesn't need to come off the field when you want to 1-gap, not that Hankins does, just saying Logan can fit everything our front wants to do.

 

I actually feel good about ILB. I wanted Reddick, but it's not gonna happen. Morrison and Jackson were decent enough down the stretch. I'm adding another young guy, assuming he's healthy. And I'm using Geathers in sub packages. I haven't given up on Jackson, and if Hightower can be a factor then Morrison can also, even though he's not my favorite. 

[Superman]

4 hours ago, coltsfanatic24 said:

Solid draft and free agency. I like Barnett as a player, but I think there is better value at CB in the first round and some good pass rushers in free agency. This is a great CB class and we need a sure thing. They passed on Xavier Rhodes and it was a mistake. Sidney Jones and Marlon Humphrey are both blue chip prospects at CB and one should be available with our first round pick. We just can't go into next season with Davis as the only good CB on the roster and expect to have a good pass defense.  

 

Humphrey wouldn't be a bad pick, but I'm not in love with him, either. I wouldn't take Sidney Jones. 

 

I think adding Webster, letting Robinson have another go (he's decent when healthy), and drafting Conley is an improvement at CB. And Evans at FS gives Green competition and gives the back end some depth it doesn't have. I like Conley as much as I like Humphrey. 

[Smonroe]

6 minutes ago, krunk said:

 

Colts have Interest in Jack Crawford.  6'5"  274lbs

 

http://www.stampedeblue.com/2017/3/6/14831298/report-colts-have-interest-in-defensive-end-jack-crawford

 

 

 

 

I have an idea how these '...team has interest in...' get going.  A players agent calls up teams and asks if they're interested in their guy.  The teams say something like - maybe at the right price, or we'll get back to you. 

 

Then the agent leaks how many teams he's talked to in order to get a little bidding war going.

 

So, in other words, I take all these reports with a huge grain of salt.

[Superman]

4 hours ago, BlueShoe said:

@Superman

 

Very nicely done!

 

I too would like to see us keep our own with the extra money we have. Signing some of our players now, will make it easier on us down the road, and provide a larger window for success. It's the Bill Polian approach, and Ballard has certainly talked about it the same way. 

 

In thinking about what Ballard has said about his philosophy, my mock is influenced by what I think is important to him. He talks about maintaining a good locker room and contributing to a "team first" culture, and a big part of that is rewarding your own players.

 

I could do without Walden in this mock, but I think it's important to keep him as a veteran presence, and I think paying him after a career best year sends a good message to the young players on the team.

 

Same for Doyle:  Separate but related, 2018 is a decision point for Dwayne Allen. If he doesn't produce, and Doyle does, then Doyle is the man, and Allen is gone. But it sends a message that Doyle gets rewarded for a career best season. 

 

And I'm locking in my two young guys, not breaking the bank on them (although the terms will be reported favorably, the contracts would be structured in a way that the team can move on without too much pain at any point), but showing that I want my young guys to be the foundation of the team. 

 

In doing this, I can bring in a questionable guy with high upside, like Jarvis Jones, and give him a "prove it" deal, because the team knows he has to produce to stay on the roster. Logan, Simon and Lelito are lunch pail guys; Webster is a ST standout who has earned a chance to be a starter. I think they all fit the mold.

[2006Coltsbestever]

Very well thought out Supe! I like the way you thought outside the box regarding Free Agent signings. I am a fan of your first selection in the Draft as well. I would either take Barnett or Takk Mckinley at 15. Great stuff!

[Jason_]

only issue I have is the same thing ztboiler brought up...ILB.  I can't see us going into the season with only Edwin Jackson, Antonio Morrison and a rookie.  I think we pretty much have to come out of FA with a new ILB. 

[ztboiler]

45 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I see Hankins getting $10-12m/year. He's two years younger than Logan, and gets in the backfield more often. Logan is the more conservative signing, but I think you can get him on a more balanced contract structure, less guaranteed money, and I think he takes care of the interior anchor just as well. He also doesn't need to come off the field when you want to 1-gap, not that Hankins does, just saying Logan can fit everything our front wants to do.

 

I actually feel good about ILB. I wanted Reddick, but it's not gonna happen. Morrison and Jackson were decent enough down the stretch. I'm adding another young guy, assuming he's healthy. And I'm using Geathers in sub packages. I haven't given up on Jackson, and if Hightower can be a factor then Morrison can also, even though he's not my favorite. 

All well reasoned.

 

It will be intriguing to see what Ballard and Pagano think about the roster and how much they turn it over....that's probably what has us all most curious.

 

I also will be more surprised than not if Ballard doesn't choose to move on early from Morrison given the grace period he has and that Morrison was voted by his teammates as least likely to fit the modern game.  There is nothing you can really build on with him.

[21isSuperman]

Erik Walden is going to be 32 when the season starts.  As much as I appreciate how well he played last year, I have trouble with giving him $6 mil per year.  I think you get the message across to your young players about "perform and you'll get paid" through Doyle, Moncrief, and Mewhort.

 

I think we need more playmakers on defense.  I'd really like to see someone like Zach Brown or Tony Jefferson brought in, even if it means spending more.  I'd rather spend a bit more to bring in playmakers, especially since we have lots of cap space.  Starting the season with Morrison and Jackson is asking for trouble, in my opinion

[akcolt]

2 hours ago, Superman said:

 

I think it's going to take multiple years of good drafting to fix the pass rush. I don't see any of the later pass rushers as being guys you reach for when there's a better player on the board, and I think Anzalone has top 50 talent. 

I agree Anzalope is top 50 if healthy History says he won't be healthy. I would rather bring in a FA ILB. The idea of Morrison starting doesn't sit well with me. You are only as strong as your weakest link I don't want the weak link at Mike. It could be you have a higher opinion of Morrison than I do. 

 

I should have been more clear about the pass rush. I was only saying that I would pick 2 of the 3 Edge signings and try to bring in Hodges or the like at ILB. 

 

I think I would try to bring in more help via the draft.  If Lawson was there in the 2nd or Willis 3rd. Mathis is a sleeper I haven't seen his numbers yet. McDowell if he slides or at 15 maybe I have not looked closely enough at him or any of the DL in this draft.

 

If Langford is back to himself that helps too. I like what you did Supe and I feel a lot better moving forward with Grig's gone.