Sport Science: Andrew Luck

[21isSuperman]

While I am a big Luck fan, this just reiterates to me that you first get your stats, then present them how you please. Sure, he may have had a better yards per carry than Tebow, but people were expecting Tebow to run much more than they expect Luck to run. So the defense plays more focused on the run with Tebow than with Luck, that's why he has a higher ypc

[Dustin]

While I am a big Luck fan, this just reiterates to me that you first get your stats, then present them how you please. Sure, he may have had a better yards per carry than Tebow, but people were expecting Tebow to run much more than they expect Luck to run. So the defense plays more focused on the run with Tebow than with Luck, that's why he has a higher ypc

Not to mention that the D could just drop 8 in the box and not have to worry about Tebow throwing a good accurate ball.

[21isSuperman]

Not to mention that the D could just drop 8 in the box and not have to worry about Tebow throwing a good accurate ball.

yeah, 9/21 isn't something to worry about

[noah larson]

Give me reasons why you think RG3 is better and i'll give you reasons why Luck is better.

Mobility

RG3 > Luck - In a lot of cases Luck would win this but not against RG3.

Arm Strength- Once again Luck has a good arm but RG3 has an absolute cannon.

RG3 > Luck

Accuracy- Both are really accurate but RG3 has shown pin-point accuracy on the deep bombs which Luck didn't have to throw so i won't knock him on that.

RG3 = Luck

Quick release- RG3 was consitantly under more pressure then Luck all year do to his horrible O-line and seemed to get ball out fast but luck will still take this one.

RG3 < Luck

Smarts- both are extremely smart and have great character.

RG3 = Luck

To me this is a very close race if you have other categories to add please do. I never said RG3 was a lot better then Luck i just think he deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as the all mighty Luck.

[noah larson]

He did face better defenses but the SEC wasnt quite the monster it is today. It was still a good conference though.

All the SEC teams had good defenses besides kentucky lol

[JWF]

All the SEC teams had good defenses besides kentucky lol

Not at all.

Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Miss State, South Carolina and LSU all had some average to bad defenses at times when Manning was there.

Even today there are quite a few teams in the SEC that have average D (Auburn, Ole Miss, and Kentucky were all pretty bad. Arkansas and UT were average).

Also Manning never faced anything in the SEC like Alabama and LSU from this season. Those were historically good defenses.

The SEC is typically the best conference. Dont get me wrong. It was also pretty good when Manning was there. But being in the SEC does not automatically mean you play good defense and are a good team contrary to what SEC fans (usually of the awful SEC teams) and media lead people to believe.

Like I said. He faced better defenses than Luck. I dont dispute that. Its not like Manning was lining up against the 2001 Ravens every week in college.

[WSO]

Mobility

RG3 > Luck - In a lot of cases Luck would win this but not against RG3.

Arm Strength- Once again Luck has a good arm but RG3 has an absolute cannon.

RG3 > Luck

Accuracy- Both are really accurate but RG3 has shown pin-point accuracy on the deep bombs which Luck didn't have to throw so i won't knock him on that.

RG3 = Luck

Quick release- RG3 was consitantly under more pressure then Luck all year do to his horrible O-line and seemed to get ball out fast but luck will still take this one.

RG3 < Luck

Smarts- both are extremely smart and have great character.

RG3 = Luck

To me this is a very close race if you have other categories to add please do. I never said RG3 was a lot better then Luck i just think he deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as the all mighty Luck.

Every scouting report has Luck as more accurate, and more intelligent due to his ability to read defenses and change plays accordingly. Sounds like you are jamming your opinion in there. If someone is more accurate on a long ball, it doesn't mean they are more accurate overall. Short to intermediate Luck is extremely accurate.

Lucks 2 biggest weaknesses are arm strength and mobility but even as weaknesses they are still very good. Much like Manning who doesn't have amazing arm strength or mobility. Lucks mobility is much better than Mannings though.

[Dan]

Mobility

RG3 > Luck - In a lot of cases Luck would win this but not against RG3.

Arm Strength- Once again Luck has a good arm but RG3 has an absolute cannon.

RG3 > Luck

Accuracy- Both are really accurate but RG3 has shown pin-point accuracy on the deep bombs which Luck didn't have to throw so i won't knock him on that.

RG3 = Luck

Quick release- RG3 was consitantly under more pressure then Luck all year do to his horrible O-line and seemed to get ball out fast but luck will still take this one.

RG3 < Luck

Smarts- both are extremely smart and have great character.

RG3 = Luck

To me this is a very close race if you have other categories to add please do. I never said RG3 was a lot better then Luck i just think he deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as the all mighty Luck.

Mobility - yep RG3 has a clear edge over Luck.

Arm strength - again RG3 has the edge but Luck's is easily good enough to suffice, so while RG3 wins both are fine.

Accuracy - I give Luck a clear edge on RG3 on short and medium distance. His accuracy is incredible - not taking anything away from RG3 but I don't see any rookie coming close to Luck on accuracy.

Quick release - Luck's release is lightning fast.

Smarts - as you say, you couldn't ask for more off either of them. Both seem like top guys who are both clearly smart.

I'll add some categories -

Timing - Luck's ability to find a receiver in space away from a corner for yards after excels RG3, especially considering Luck had no real receivers.

Reading the D/Playcalling - Luck was going the way of Peyton in calling several plays from the line and it is one of the things that makes people compare him to #18. RG3, to my knowledge, did nothing of the sort.

Beard - RG3 doesn't even have one. Neckbeard fan or not, it's a fact that some beard > no beard.

Hair - Luck's is plain and boring, RG3 has dreads. Dreads win any day.

[noah larson]

Not at all.

Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Miss State, South Carolina and LSU all had some average to bad defenses at times when Manning was there.

Even today there are quite a few teams in the SEC that have average D (Auburn, Ole Miss, and Kentucky were all pretty bad. Arkansas and UT were average).

Also Manning never faced anything in the SEC like Alabama and LSU from this season. Those were historically good defenses.

The SEC is typically the best conference. Dont get me wrong. It was also pretty good when Manning was there. But being in the SEC does not automatically mean you play good defense and are a good team contrary to what SEC fans (usually of the awful SEC teams) and media lead people to believe.

Like I said. He faced better defenses than Luck. I dont dispute that. Its not like Manning was lining up against the 2001 Ravens every week in college.

Still all of those defenses were still better then Oregon and USC's defenses are now, which were the two best D's he faced this year. even though USC defense didn't even start playing good until later in the season.

[noah larson]

Every scouting report has Luck as more accurate, and more intelligent due to his ability to read defenses and change plays accordingly. Sounds like you are jamming your opinion in there. If someone is more accurate on a long ball, it doesn't mean they are more accurate overall. Short to intermediate Luck is extremely accurate.

Lucks 2 biggest weaknesses are arm strength and mobility but even as weaknesses they are still very good. Much like Manning who doesn't have amazing arm strength or mobility. Lucks mobility is much better than Mannings though.

Copied this from Walterfootballs website:

Griffin earned his Heisman Trophy and truly was the best player in college football this season as he led Baylor to a 10-win season. Griffin carried Baylor to thrilling wins over Oklahoma, Kansas and TCU. He has displayed a very strong arm and good mobility. His accuracy was phenomenal on passes to the short, intermediate, and deep part of the field. In 2011, Griffin completed 72 percent of his passes for 4,293 yards with 37 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has also rushed for 699 yards and 10 touchdowns. His decision-making was superb.

He even had a better completion % last year then Luck

[UndecidedFrog]

Copied this from Walterfootballs website:

Griffin earned his Heisman Trophy and truly was the best player in college football this season as he led Baylor to a 10-win season. Griffin carried Baylor to thrilling wins over Oklahoma, Kansas and TCU. He has displayed a very strong arm and good mobility. His accuracy was phenomenal on passes to the short, intermediate, and deep part of the field. In 2011, Griffin completed 72 percent of his passes for 4,293 yards with 37 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has also rushed for 699 yards and 10 touchdowns. His decision-making was superb.

He even had a better completion % last year then Luck

From http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/7333021/andrew-luck-stanford-cardinal-wins-walter-camp-award-player-year

Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck has won the Walter Camp Foundation's award as college football's player of the year.

The award, in its 45th year, is voted on by the nation's 120 Football Bowl Subdivision head coaches and sports information directors.

Luck threw for 3,170 yards and a school-record 35 touchdowns as a senior, leading No. 4 Stanford to an 11-1 record and a bid to play No. 3 Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl.

He beat out Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III, Houston quarterback Case Keenum, Alabama running back Trent Richardson and LSU defensive back Tyrann Mathieu.

[Dustin]

Mobility

RG3 > Luck - In a lot of cases Luck would win this but not against RG3.

Arm Strength- Once again Luck has a good arm but RG3 has an absolute cannon.

RG3 > Luck

Accuracy- Both are really accurate but RG3 has shown pin-point accuracy on the deep bombs which Luck didn't have to throw so i won't knock him on that.

RG3 = Luck

Quick release- RG3 was consitantly under more pressure then Luck all year do to his horrible O-line and seemed to get ball out fast but luck will still take this one.

RG3 < Luck

Smarts- both are extremely smart and have great character.

RG3 = Luck

To me this is a very close race if you have other categories to add please do. I never said RG3 was a lot better then Luck i just think he deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as the all mighty Luck.

1. Luck is larger than Griffin thus will be able to make more hits without being injured.

2. Luck comes from a pro-style offense, while Griffin comes from a Spread Offense. Therefore Luck will make an easier transition.

3. Being from a pro-style offense, Luck will be able to go through his progressions better and not rely on a single receiver to get open.

4. Luck has a quicker release than Griffin. Much quicker.

5. Luck calls his own plays and can adjust accordingly at the LOS.

[mr. football]

I am a huge manning fan And still hold out hope that they can coexist. That being said... I am glad we are in the position to draft luck. I think he has all the tools to be a great quarterback. How great? I don't know. But I think he's gonna be good for sure!

[noah larson]

1. Luck is larger than Griffin thus will be able to make more hits without being injured.

2. Luck comes from a pro-style offense, while Griffin comes from a Spread Offense. Therefore Luck will make an easier transition.

3. Being from a pro-style offense, Luck will be able to go through his progressions better and not rely on a single receiver to get open.

4. Luck has a quicker release than Griffin. Much quicker.

5. Luck calls his own plays and can adjust accordingly at the LOS.

1. It's hard to tell which player will get hurt more, i don't see Drew Brees ending up on injury reports a lot while Big Ben is always banged up.

2.This is your only valid point, but were not sure what our offense is going to look like in the future it will depend on who they resign. The defense will be attempted to be changed to a 3-4 by the hiring of the D-cordinator. When all is said and done this offense could favor RG3 over Luck.

3. By this statement i can tell you didn't watch very many baylor games, at the first of the season he went to wright a lot but when teams started paying more attention to him RG3 went through his progression and hit other recievers with great accuracy.

4. Much quicker no, a little quicker yes.

5. I like how people try to make it sound like that Luck is the only QB in college football that changes plays at the line or make checks. Heres a news flash for you every college QB does it.

[Dustin]

1. It's hard to tell which player will get hurt more, i don't see Drew Brees ending up on injury reports a lot while Big Ben is always banged up.

2.This is your only valid point, but were not sure what our offense is going to look like in the future it will depend on who they resign. The defense will be attempted to be changed to a 3-4 by the hiring of the D-cordinator. When all is said and done this offense could favor RG3 over Luck.

3. By this statement i can tell you didn't watch very many baylor games, at the first of the season he went to wright a lot but when teams started paying more attention to him RG3 went through his progression and hit other recievers with great accuracy.

4. Much quicker no, a little quicker yes.

5. I like how people try to make it sound like that Luck is the only QB in college football that changes plays at the line or make checks. Heres a news flash for you every college QB does it.

When has a spread offense like they run at Baylor ever worked in the NFL?

[Dan]

1. It's hard to tell which player will get hurt more, i don't see Drew Brees ending up on injury reports a lot while Big Ben is always banged up.

2.This is your only valid point, but were not sure what our offense is going to look like in the future it will depend on who they resign. The defense will be attempted to be changed to a 3-4 by the hiring of the D-cordinator. When all is said and done this offense could favor RG3 over Luck.

3. By this statement i can tell you didn't watch very many baylor games, at the first of the season he went to wright a lot but when teams started paying more attention to him RG3 went through his progression and hit other recievers with great accuracy.

4. Much quicker no, a little quicker yes.

5. I like how people try to make it sound like that Luck is the only QB in college football that changes plays at the line or make checks. Heres a news flash for you every college QB does it.

Was my earlier post invisible?

[John Dee]

You mean like Peyton's slow, wobbly balls? That's another reason they are so much alike.

hehe,... so true, and the first half of Manning's career in Indy nearly ALL his deep balls were down right wounded ducks in the air.

But they got where they were going. Seems like the older he got the tighter his spiral on the ball got....

Kinda weird...

[John Dee]

The more I think about this whole situation the more I simply cannot believe that the Colts are in a postition to transition from a Peyton Manning, still in his prime (regardless of the circumstances) to a player the caliber of an Andrew Luck...

This franchise totally Lucked out....

And watching that video the thing that stands out to me, as is the same with every game I have watched him play is his mobility. He will add a dimension to this team the Colts have not seen since Harbaugh was here. And what a nice feeling it is to get a "cheap" (running) first down on occasion.

If it goes down like it appears it wil,... next season will be a bitter sweet one to say the least.

[UndecidedFrog]

The more I think about this whole situation the more I simply cannot believe that the Colts are in a postition to transition from a Peyton Manning, still in his prime (regardless of the circumstances) to a player the caliber of an Andrew Luck...

This franchise totally Lucked out....

And watching that video the thing that stands out to me, as is the same with every game I have watched him play is his mobility. He will add a dimension to this team the Colts have not seen since Harbaugh was here. And what a nice feeling it is to get a "cheap" (running) first down on occasion.

If it goes down like it appears it wil,... next season will be a bitter sweet one to say the least.

And yet, there are some of us who would be happy to trade the #1 overall pick away for multiple picks later in the draft to address a number of positions that they feel are more important than QB, since they are confident PM will return to his pre-injury form in time for the season to start.

[John Dee]

And yet, there are some of us who would be happy to trade the #1 overall pick away for multiple picks later in the draft to address a number of positions that they feel are more important than QB, since they are confident PM will return to his pre-injury form in time for the season to start.

When push comet to shove... we all know what Irsay is going to do...

His family already let John Elway escape... it won't happen again.

[noah larson]

Mobility - yep RG3 has a clear edge over Luck.

Arm strength - again RG3 has the edge but Luck's is easily good enough to suffice, so while RG3 wins both are fine.

Accuracy - I give Luck a clear edge on RG3 on short and medium distance. His accuracy is incredible - not taking anything away from RG3 but I don't see any rookie coming close to Luck on accuracy.

Quick release - Luck's release is lightning fast.

Smarts - as you say, you couldn't ask for more off either of them. Both seem like top guys who are both clearly smart.

I'll add some categories -

Timing - Luck's ability to find a receiver in space away from a corner for yards after excels RG3, especially considering Luck had no real receivers.

Reading the D/Playcalling - Luck was going the way of Peyton in calling several plays from the line and it is one of the things that makes people compare him to #18. RG3, to my knowledge, did nothing of the sort.

Beard - RG3 doesn't even have one. Neckbeard fan or not, it's a fact that some beard > no beard.

Hair - Luck's is plain and boring, RG3 has dreads. Dreads win any day.

Well i guess we just disagree on the accuracy thing, I think it's pretty even. As for reading the D/play calling none of us probably know exactly how much they do, all i know both guys are great at reading defenses. All QB's in college can change plays at the line though, a lot of the time you can tell by how a D lines up that your >>>ed and have to change the play. If RG3 never did that then that's even more impressive to me by how effective he was.

[Dustin]

Well i guess we just disagree on the accuracy thing, I think it's pretty even. As for reading the D/play calling none of us probably know exactly how much they do, all i know both guys are great at reading defenses. All QB's in college can change plays at the line though, a lot of the time you can tell by how a D lines up that your >>>ed and have to change the play. If RG3 never did that then that's even more impressive to me by how effective he was.

Luck calls his own plays. He doesn't just change the call at the line.

[noah larson]

Luck calls his own plays. He doesn't just change the call at the line.

So Stanford doesn't have an offensive cordinator?

[Dustin]

So Stanford doesn't have an offensive cordinator?

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/campusrivalry/post/2011/10/andrew-luck-calls-own-plays-out-of-the-no-huddle-offense/1

[noah larson]

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/campusrivalry/post/2011/10/andrew-luck-calls-own-plays-out-of-the-no-huddle-offense/1

It said at times he did and i would like to know what part of the game he did that in. I already knew Luck was smart and was capable of doing that though. Plus Stanford's whole offense overmatched UCLA's defense so much almost anything would of worked though. Who's to say though that RG3 can't do the same, all the NFL teams will pick these guys brains and determine how much they know. So we will all find out soon if RG3 is capable of it.

[Superman]

More and more he reminds me of Aaron Rodgers.

I think that's a very appropriate comparison, except Luck's throwing motion is better at this point than Rodgers' was.

[Superman]

And yet, there are some of us who would be happy to trade the #1 overall pick away for multiple picks later in the draft to address a number of positions that they feel are more important than QB, since they are confident PM will return to his pre-injury form in time for the season to start.

I was willing to trade down before Matt Barkley decided to stay at USC. I think Luck is a better prospect, but not that much better than Barkley. Especially with RGIII's stock rising the way it was, it would be conceivable to see Barkley be the third quarterback drafted in this year's draft. Trade down to #7, get a few extra picks this year and next year (based on the Atlanta/Cleveland model in the Julio Jones trade), and take Barkley.

[UndecidedFrog]

I was willing to trade down before Matt Barkley decided to stay at USC. I think Luck is a better prospect, but not that much better than Barkley. Especially with RGIII's stock rising the way it was, it would be conceivable to see Barkley be the third quarterback drafted in this year's draft. Trade down to #7, get a few extra picks this year and next year (based on the Atlanta/Cleveland model in the Julio Jones trade), and take Barkley.

And have you changed your position since then?

IMO, if Barkley had entered this year's draft, he is the #2 QB, ahead of RG3.

[Superman]

And have you changed your position since then?

IMO, if Barkley had entered this year's draft, he is the #2 QB, ahead of RG3.

Probably. But then again, RGIII wasn't on my radar back then, so I don't know.

To answer your question, yes. I don't think you should pass up an opportunity to draft a player like Luck. Or Barkley, honestly. Living in SoCal, I get a lot of exposure to Barkley, from the time Pete Carroll named him as the starter as a true freshman. He's got the talent and the skills to succeed in the NFL, if you ask me. To me, he's better than Leinart and Sanchez, so there's no point in comparing him to the previous USC quarterbacks to come out. I'm putting Barkley just a notch below Luck, and even looking at his numbers last season, he's been bridging the gap.

Also, just to be clear, I've never been a "trade the pick" kind of guy. Not even before it became clear that Manning would miss the entire season and we'd have the top pick. A lot of people have promoted the idea, and I've kicked it around, but that's never been my preference.

[UndecidedFrog]

Probably. But then again, RGIII wasn't on my radar back then, so I don't know.

To answer your question, yes. I don't think you should pass up an opportunity to draft a player like Luck. Or Barkley, honestly. Living in SoCal, I get a lot of exposure to Barkley, from the time Pete Carroll named him as the starter as a true freshman. He's got the talent and the skills to succeed in the NFL, if you ask me. To me, he's better than Leinart and Sanchez, so there's no point in comparing him to the previous USC quarterbacks to come out. I'm putting Barkley just a notch below Luck, and even looking at his numbers last season, he's been bridging the gap.

Also, just to be clear, I've never been a "trade the pick" kind of guy. Not even before it became clear that Manning would miss the entire season and we'd have the top pick. A lot of people have promoted the idea, and I've kicked it around, but that's never been my preference.

I think RG3 had a late season push to win the Heisman and media recognition. I don't think his style of play translates well to the NFL.

I'm not in favor of trading the #1 pick unless I am 100% assured that PM is back to his pre-injury form.

I'm also not in favor of paying PM the option bonus unless the same assurance is provided.

Hence, I think it is more than likely that PM will be release before March 8, and that the Colts will pick a QB with their #1 pick.

What happens after is murky to me.

Does PM negotiate a new deal with the Colts or with another team if his nerve improves?

Does PM decide to retire if his nerve does not improve after XX months, and levels of at YY% of his pre-injury form?

If PM returns to the Colts, how many seasons must the drafted QB wait to start?

I cannot see it being 2 or more years.

[Superman]

I think RG3 had a late season push to win the Heisman and media recognition. I don't think his style of play translates well to the NFL.

I'm not in favor of trading the #1 pick unless I am 100% assured that PM is back to his pre-injury form.

I'm also not in favor of paying PM the option bonus unless the same assurance is provided.

Hence, I think it is more than likely that PM will be release before March 8, and that the Colts will pick a QB with their #1 pick.

What happens after is murky to me.

Does PM negotiate a new deal with the Colts or with another team if his nerve improves?

Does PM decide to retire if his nerve does not improve after XX months, and levels of at YY% of his pre-injury form?

If PM returns to the Colts, how many seasons must the drafted QB wait to start?

I cannot see it being 2 or more years.

Agreed on RGIII. To an extent.

I'm not in favor of trading the pick, period. I think you have to draft Luck, independent of your Manning decision. I was okay with trading it if you had a chance at another really good QB prospect like Barkley, but now it's Luck. Take him, and be glad you sucked at the right time.

Then, you make your Manning decision based on a) health, and b) economics. In that order. If he's not healthy, the cap issues are moot.

If he is healthy, then you have to decide whether you want to pay him the money he'll be due if you keep him, and pay your backup $4-5 million a year. That's a luxury, and maybe you're not interested in paying for luxury at this point at the quarterback position.

Then, having decided to draft Luck, and if Manning is healthy and you're willing to pay him, you milk whatever you can out of him for the next two or three years. At that point, you start your transition. Again, that's assuming health. But that's your next problem, and it's not the problem of the moment.

[UndecidedFrog]

I'm not in favor of trading the pick, period. I think you have to draft Luck, independent of your Manning decision. I was okay with trading it if you had a chance at another really good QB prospect like Barkley, but now it's Luck. Take him, and be glad you sucked at the right time.

I think you have to consider how to justify sitting your #1 draft pick on the bench for up to 4 years if PM is back.

Then, you make your Manning decision based on a) health, and b) economics. In that order. If he's not healthy, the cap issues are moot.

If he is healthy, then you have to decide whether you want to pay him the money he'll be due if you keep him, and pay your backup $4-5 million a year. That's a luxury, and maybe you're not interested in paying for luxury at this point at the quarterback position.

Then, having decided to draft Luck, and if Manning is healthy and you're willing to pay him, you milk whatever you can out of him for the next two or three years. At that point, you start your transition. Again, that's assuming health. But that's your next problem, and it's not the problem of the moment.

And by health, you mean his performance ability to his pre-injury level, and not this medical clearance to play football?

[Andy]

Love the comparisons...

Quick release like Rodgers

Better accuracy than Peyton

Faster than Tebow

That's the guy I want

[Superman]

I think you have to consider how to justify sitting your #1 draft pick on the bench for up to 4 years if PM is back.

I think you have to consider how to justify a) NOT drafting Luck under any circumstances, and b) releasing Manning IF he's healthy and able to play at a high level for the next three or four years.

I'm not suggesting, at this point, that it's a good idea to keep Luck on the bench for four years. I'm saying that's the next problem. But that's a better problem to have than the alternative, because theoretically, he'll be better from sitting behind Manning, and you get a smoother bridge to the next chapter. But four years is probably too long.

And by health, you mean his performance ability to his pre-injury level, and not this medical clearance to play football?

I was going to say when the report came out last week that he had been cleared that it doesn't mean he's 100% and ready to play. I didn't want to be a Debbie Downer, but it was not surprising in the least when Irsay followed it up by saying that Manning isn't sufficiently cleared to play.

I'm not, though, saying that he has to be able to play at his pre-injury level. Manning, pre-injury, was the best quarterback in the NFL, if you ask me. And that's not because he had such a strong arm. As a matter of fact, his arm strength had been the topic of conversation for a couple of years before 2010. Obviously, best-case scenario is that he's back and even better because the nerves will have regenerated to where they were before he first started having this issue. But if he's able to play at a reasonably high level for the next three or four years, regardless of how that compares with his previous performance, then there's some things to consider.

And again, I'm pretty resigned to the fact that they're going to release him, regardless of how well he looks when the decision is made. I don't like it, and I wish there was another way, but he's likely played his last game for the Colts.

[UndecidedFrog]

I think you have to consider how to justify a) NOT drafting Luck under any circumstances, and b) releasing Manning IF he's healthy and able to play at a high level for the next three or four years.

I'm not suggesting, at this point, that it's a good idea to keep Luck on the bench for four years. I'm saying that's the next problem. But that's a better problem to have than the alternative, because theoretically, he'll be better from sitting behind Manning, and you get a smoother bridge to the next chapter. But four years is probably too long.

4 years is too long to sit a #1 pick QB.

a) IF the Colts management really believes that PM is back to his pre-injury form, and can last 4 more years, I can see how they will pass on Luck and trade the pick. I would think they are crazy, but then, I don't know what management would know to make that decision.

b) IF the Colts management really believes that PM is not adequately back to his pre-injury form, and cannot get back within the next 4 years, they will release him. Some will see them as crazy, but then, they don't know what management would know to make the decision.

I was going to say when the report came out last week that he had been cleared that it doesn't mean he's 100% and ready to play. I didn't want to be a Debbie Downer, but it was not surprising in the least when Irsay followed it up by saying that Manning isn't sufficiently cleared to play.

You should never allow the fear of being called a Debbie Downer prevent you from posting what you think. :sadno:

I'm not, though, saying that he has to be able to play at his pre-injury level. Manning, pre-injury, was the best quarterback in the NFL, if you ask me. And that's not because he had such a strong arm. As a matter of fact, his arm strength had been the topic of conversation for a couple of years before 2010. Obviously, best-case scenario is that he's back and even better because the nerves will have regenerated to where they were before he first started having this issue. But if he's able to play at a reasonably high level for the next three or four years, regardless of how that compares with his previous performance, then there's some things to consider.

I don't think arm strength, in itself, is the issue. I think it is PM's current arm strength as compared to PM's pre-injury arm strength that is in question. I entirely agree with you that PM never had a strong arm pre-injury, and he was successful despite this. However, if PM's current arm strength is not adequately comparable to his pre-injury arm strength, he may not be as successful as he once was.

[UKCOLT17]

i dont see why people debate it i like luck myself but your gonna have people who want rg3 and others who want luck i think luck is better myself because he didnt have a top wr and he only had his TES so every one knows where gonna pass it but rg3 should have dont better cause he ran the ball so the defense has to watch for both but at only 6 2 and he runs the ball lets see if he can take a hit from some of the big players in the league thats what would worry me

[GoColts8818]

He better not run because he "will" get injured!... Isnt that what the RG3 Nay-sayers have been saying?

There is a huge difference in being able to run some and being a running QB. Look at Aaron Rodgers. That's who Luck reminds me of in terms of being able to run. A guy who is going to look to throw first and always but if you aren't paying attention to it he can run for a first down once in a while and normally slides to avoid the hit.

RG3 seems to be more like Mike Vick in that he's built like a normal QB but likes to try to run like a running back at times and the wear and tear of the NFL catches up to you at some point if you do that.

The fear of injury came from people saying well Cam Newton can run and he doesn't get hurt so RG3 should be able to do the same. People were just pointing out RG3 is smaller than Newton and Newton, like Teabow has a body that running backs would be jealous of. RG3 doesn't have that.

With that said RG3 is one heck of a passer in spread offense. If he can make the transition to an NFL offense and learn to use his legs as a weapon and not just depend on them he is going to be one heck of a football player in the NFL for a long time.

[Superman]

4 years is too long to sit a #1 pick QB.

Probably.

a) IF the Colts management really believes that PM is back to his pre-injury form, and can last 4 more years, I can see how they will pass on Luck and trade the pick. I would think they are crazy, but then, I don't know what management would know to make that decision.

They'd have to be 100% certain that Manning will be his old self, and will hold up for the next four years. And even then, I think it would still be a mistake to pass on Luck.

b) IF the Colts management really believes that PM is not adequately back to his pre-injury form, and cannot get back within the next 4 years, they will release him. Some will see them as crazy, but then, they don't know what management would know to make the decision.

If he can't get back within the next four weeks, they'll release him. And again, I think that's independent of the Luck decision.

You should never allow the fear of being called a Debbie Downer prevent you from posting what you think. :sadno:

I'm often the contrarian. That's not the problem. I just didn't think anyone would hear me, and as a matter of fact, by the time I got around to the board, there were a couple people pointing that out already. And being drowned out.

No big, it is what it is.

I don't think arm strength, in itself, is the issue. I think it is PM's current arm strength as compared to PM's pre-injury arm strength that is in question. I entirely agree with you that PM never had a strong arm pre-injury, and he was successful despite this. However, if PM's current arm strength is not adequately comparable to his pre-injury arm strength, he may not be as successful as he once was.

Right. We don't need him to throw fireballs, but he can't be throwing wet noodles either.

[ace_6900]

Wow i have been a big supporter of trading the #1 pick even if Manning is not back but after seeing that how could you possibly not take him?

[UndecidedFrog]

Wow i have been a big supporter of trading the #1 pick even if Manning is not back but after seeing that how could you possibly not take him?

Well, there are still some fans who think the Colts should trade the #1 pick away. They feel that PM will definitely get better regarding his nerve regeneration issue, and that you don't need Luck, even though PM will be 36 years old this upcoming season.

It will be interesting to see what the Colts do.