Pro Football Outsiders: Predicts the Colts to Finish....

[krunk]

1 hour ago, southwest1 said:

I've noticed that those who have listed each game gave INDY an L in the column. Why? 

 

Yes, Jordy Nelson Aaron Rogers favorite target is back & Clay Matthews & Julius Peppers are always studs on defense. However, GB defense as a whole really doesn't scare me that much. Unless your thinking Rogers is just gonna throw TDs left & right. 

 

I still need to see if Nelson is totally back from injury first. The Packers as a native Badger citizen myself don't intimidate me all that much. I'm not giving the Cheese heads a blanket victory straight out the gate. Forget that nonsense. 

 

What is wrong with some of these Flaky Fans SW1?  It's really killing me.  I'll be darned if we ever lose to the Jags and Texans multiple times in the same year with Luck under center and a revamped offensive line.  Some of this stuff is pure insanity to me.......

[southwest1]

7 minutes ago, krunk said:

 

What is wrong with some of these Flaky Fans SW1?  It's really killing me.  I'll be darned if we ever lose to the Jags and Texans multiple times in the same year with Luck under center and a revamped offensive line.  Some of this stuff is pure insanity to me.......

I read ya brother. It's really starting to royally tick me off. Look, I get that all our division opponents improved, but darn man all these NFL talking heads are treating INDY like a last rites ceremony at our own funeral. What the hades? I just don't get all this Colts one foot in the grave bull crap. 

 

Jacksonville still hasn't learned how to close games out & step on their adversary's throat symbolically speaking. All the glowing draft praise in the world isn't gonna guarantee a Jags win & I don't give a darn that they signed Myles Jack or Jalen Ramsey either. Experience trumps athleticism most of the time vs high profile rookies. 

 

Going back to my original post about not fearing the Packers that much, I know RB Eddie Lacy lost weight & claims he's faster now. I respect Lacy sure, but INDY can go toe to toe with GB. Rogers just looked off & I had no idea he needed Nelson so much. I've never seen an elite QB crumble so fast without Jordy in his back pocket. 

[krunk]

6 minutes ago, southwest1 said:

I read ya brother. It's really starting to royally tick me off. Look, I get that all our division opponents improved, but darn man all these NFL talking heads are treating INDY like a last rites ceremony at our own funeral. What the hades? I just don't get all this Colts one foot in the grave bull crap. 

 

Jacksonville still hasn't learned how to close games out & step on their adversary's throat symbolically speaking. All the glowing draft praise in the world isn't gonna guarantee a Jags win & I don't give a darn that they signed Myles Jack or Jalen Ramsey either. Experience trumps athleticism most of the time vs high profile rookies. 

 

Going back to my original post about not fearing the Packers that much, I know RB Eddie Lacy lost weight & claims he's faster now. I respect Lacy sure, but INDY can go toe to toe with GB. Rogers just looked off & I had no idea he needed Nelson so much. I've never seen an elite QB crumble so fast without Jordy in his back pocket. 

 

Some of this stuff that's being said is just crazy to me! I like what you said about experience because it's right.  Ya got to learn how to play this game first before you can truly dominate.  Jags are puppy dogs at this thing overall. I don't think Bortles is close to being where he needs to be execution wise or consistency wise to have us cowering down to that team.  He's improving, but he ain't there yet.  And I ain't even going to get on any of the losing to the Texans predictions.....

Green Bay we can beat.

[southwest1]

Another loss that baffles me is when INDY plays Denver in week 2. During the Luck era, the Colts have been able to beat the Broncos consistently enough. Okay, I get it they're worried about Von Miller bearing down on Luck & maybe DeMarcus Ware forcing Andrew to move off his spot after Kelly snaps him the ball. 

 

I just don't have all that much faith in Mark Sanchez & Paxton Lynch isn't ready to start for at least a yr yet. I don't care what impression Kubiak & Elway are trying to create. It's a smoke screen with no fire at all. 

 

If Robert Mathis sacks Sanchez a few times, Mark will fold like lawn chair & that game is ours. 

[throwing BBZ]

5 hours ago, Archer said:

While QB play has dramatically improved in the division, Indy will probably be the only one with elite QB play in 2016.  That should make them the favorite.  I can't come to their figures on defensive starters above 30, unless Arthur Jones turns 30 during the year and they foolishly expect him to start.  Shows how well they know the team...

 

 Considering we don`t have an Elite QB, and you don`t know your own team... bla bla bla bla bla
  With the worst D in the division and the worst running game, Andrew can`t play HIS game anymore!
 NCF screwed up what they said. It is 30 & over.
 And there is some Serious Mediocrity in this group!
 Mike Adams 35
 Trent Cole 33    & 34 in Oct.
 DQ Jackson 32 & 33 in Sept.
 Kendall Langford 30
 Robert Mathis 35
 Eric Walden 30
 Darius Butler 30

[Narcosys]

4 hours ago, southwest1 said:

Just for the heck of it, I looked at our regular season schedule again. There's a lot of teams we face with a good defense this year. The Jets, the Raiders, Kansas City, & Mike Zimmer's Vikings. INDY's better than 7-9. We can go 10-6. And what's all this love for the Texans all of a sudden? Brock OZ is the next elite QB after an 8-2 season now? Please...

 

Considering that INDY has more or less owned the AFC South for a decade, we deserve respect for our division longevity. These same experts always put NE at the top of the AFC East every single year regardless because of their dominance at the QB position but Luck is overrated or on a downward spiral now? Who are we kidding? LOL! 

Respect does not reflect results. We have to perform to have respect, and wr haven't done that.  

 

We won't sweep Tenn, Jax, or Houston this year. 

[southwest1]

1. W against the Lions

 

2. W against the Broncos

 

3. L against the Chargers. I can't explain it, but San Diego always has our number. They just do. 

 

4. W against the Jags. 

 

5. W against Da Bears [in a Mike Ditka accent of course]. 

 

6. W against the Texans. 

 

7. L against the Titans. 

 

8. KC is hard to predict, but INDY will pull out a FG victory there so another W. 

 

9. W against the Packers.  If you took Peppers & Matthews off their squad, nobody would fear them. 

 

10. Bye week. I love late bye weeks. Heal up just before the last push before the playoffs. 

 

11. W against the Titans. 

 

12. L against the Steelers. Antonio Brown is unstoppable. 

 

13. L against the Jets. Brandon Marshal is just too good. 

 

14. We always split with Houston so the L goes here. 

 

15. L against the Vikings. Zims is just a brilliant defensive mind & AP will run all over us. 

 

16. W against the Raiders with not a resounding vote of confidence here. Khalil Mack is a game wrecker. 

 

17. W against the Jags. Like I said before, the cats have no killer instinct yet. 

 

10-6...

[southwest1]

28 minutes ago, Narcosys said:

Respect does not reflect results. We have to perform to have respect, and wr haven't done that.  

 

We won't sweep Tenn, Jax, or Houston this year. 

I agree that we won't sweep Houston Narcosys, but Jacksonville has to punch INDY in the mouth first & they won't. We take down the cats twice. No problem. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

5 hours ago, Gavin said:

vs Lions-W

at Broncos-L

vs Chargers-W

at Jags-L

vs Bears-W

at Texans-L

at Titans-L

vs Chiefs-W

at Packers-L

vs Titans-W

vs Steelers-W

at Jets-L

vs Texans-W

at Vikings-L

at Raiders-L

vs Jags-W

 

I can see this team going anywhere between 6-10 to 10-6 (Road games vs Raiders, Vikings, Jets, Broncos can be a real toss up but I went 8-8. Going to be tougher then we think)

I think we sweep the Titans and remember that Jags game is in London not Jacks so that takes away their HFA. That is a winnable game as well. I have us 10-6, 9-7 at worse. Not sure we beat the Steelers regarding your W's, the rest of your W's I agree with. I think we have a decent shot of winning at Minnesota. MInny will be good but that game is winnable.

[jameszeigler834]

1 hour ago, southwest1 said:

1. W against the Lions

 

2. W against the Broncos

 

3. L against the Chargers. I can't explain it, but San Diego always has our number. They just do. 

 

4. W against the Jags. 

 

5. W against Da Bears [in a Mike Ditka accent of course]. 

 

6. W against the Texans. 

 

7. L against the Titans. 

 

8. KC is hard to predict, but INDY will pull out a FG victory there so another W. 

 

9. W against the Packers.  If you took Peppers & Matthews off their squad, nobody would fear them. 

 

10. Bye week. I love late bye weeks. Heal up just before the last push before the playoffs. 

 

11. W against the Titans. 

 

12. L against the Steelers. Antonio Brown is unstoppable. 

 

13. L against the Jets. Brandon Marshal is just too good. 

 

14. We always split with Houston so the L goes here. 

 

15. L against the Vikings. Zims is just a brilliant defensive mind & AP will run all over us. 

 

16. W against the Raiders with not a resounding vote of confidence here. Khalil Mack is a game wrecker. 

 

17. W against the Jags. Like I said before, the cats have no killer instinct yet. 

 

10-6...

We can beat Pittsburgh too they suck on the road always have and I don't think that will change this year I think every game on that schedule is winnable.

[Gavin]

50 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I think we sweep the Titans and remember that Jags game is in London not Jacks so that takes away their HFA. That is a winnable game as well. I have us 10-6, 9-7 at worse. Not sure we beat the Steelers regarding your W's, the rest of your W's I agree with. I think we have a decent shot of winning at Minnesota. MInny will be good but that game is winnable.

Yep, By no means am I saying we will go 6-10 (and if people want to take it that way then that's on them). I think we win a game or two, maybe 3 of those games that I have butt toss ups but I think the days of coasting by in the division are over and that it will be a fight. Our real competition I see as Jax with the way Bortles is progressing and the offensive weapons they have plus they loaded up with a young but talented defense. Titans are a year away I think. Texans as well should be right along for the fight

 

 

[B~Town]

5 hours ago, Flash said:

They played 16 regular season games. There's enough data there for it to be reliable. I highly doubt that teams let off the gas peddle against a team that won the AFC South division and made it to the playoffs.

 

Would be easy to name 5  teams with better D stats only tell part of the story . If stats tell all that CB we signed is the best in the NFL but nobody in there right mind would say that . Denver Seattle Jets Arizona Carilona Kansas City Minnesota and Cicny all allowed less points on the season that Texas ...

 

[2006Coltsbestever]

25 minutes ago, Gavin said:

Yep, By no means am I saying we will go 6-10 (and if people want to take it that way then that's on them). I think we win a game or two, maybe 3 of those games that I have butt toss ups but I think the days of coasting by in the division are over and that it will be a fight. Our real competition I see as Jax with the way Bortles is progressing and the offensive weapons they have plus they loaded up with a young but talented defense. Titans are a year away I think. Texans as well should be right along for the fight

 

 

No I pretty much I agree with your wins and losses. Actually if you just had us sweeping the Titans that would put us 9-7 going by how you have it. Which is about right. If lady LUCK is on our side as they say in cards  we could go 11-5 again.

[southwest1]

28 minutes ago, jameszeigler834 said:

We can beat Pittsburgh too they suck on the road always have and I don't think that will change this year I think every game on that schedule is winnable.

Nothing would make me happier than defeating Pittsburgh. This isn't anything against Mike Tomlin BTW who I have a ton of respect for. Joey Porter on the other hand...

 

Getting back to your post J834. I like your enthusiasm, but the Steelers are so potent on offense that we just aren't ready to take down that Steelers juggernaut yet. DeAngelo Williams, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, & Markus Wheaton. First, we have to stop getting humiliated by their squad & then maybe give them a run for their money. Next yr INDY might look respectable vs them not now, but it will come. 

[southwest1]

1 hour ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I think we have a decent shot of winning at Minnesota. MInny will be good but that game is winnable.

The weird thing about facing Mike Zimmer is that INDY always played the Bengals well when Zims was their DC, but just the way the Purple People Eaters barely lost to Seattle tells me that the Vikings are mentally tougher. 

 

Bridgewater isn't gonna win the game but that defense sure has 1 hades of a shot. I like Mike & I always have. Could go either way, but my gut says INDY comes up short in week 15. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

8 hours ago, Gavin said:

vs Lions-W

at Broncos-L

vs Chargers-W

at Jags-L

vs Bears-W

at Texans-L

at Titans-L

vs Chiefs-W

at Packers-L

vs Titans-W

vs Steelers-W

at Jets-L

vs Texans-W

at Vikings-L

at Raiders-L

vs Jags-W

 

I can see this team going anywhere between 6-10 to 10-6 (Road games vs Raiders, Vikings, Jets, Broncos can be a real toss up but I went 8-8. Going to be tougher then we think)

I am going to say:

*Lions - W (1-0)

*At Broncos - W, a shocking W but we always play well against them and Peyton is gone. (2-0)

*Chargers - W (3-0)

*Jags in London - L, this will be our first loss. We will come out flat after starting 3-0 against a Jags team that is trying to prove their worth. (3-1)

*Bears - W (4-1)

*At Texans - L, this will be a loss because it is simply at Houston and I think we split against them. (4-2)

*At Titans - W (5-2)

*Chiefs - W, we own them for some reason and this game is at home. (6-2)

*At Packers - L (6-3)

*Titans - W, we will sweep the Titans IMO. (7-3)

*Steelers - L (7-4)

*At Jets - L (7-5)

*Texans - W (8-5), this win will give us the upper hand in the Division at that point.

*At Vikings - W (9-5)

*At Raiders - L (9-6)

*Jags - W, this will win us the Division putting us at 4-2 in the Division and 10-6 overall. The Jags and Texans both will finish 9-7. Titans 7-9 IMO.

[jameszeigler834]

8 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

 

 Considering we don`t have an Elite QB, and you don`t know your own team... bla bla bla bla bla
  With the worst D in the division and the worst running game, Andrew can`t play HIS game anymore!
 NCF screwed up what they said. It is 30 & over.
 And there is some Serious Mediocrity in this group!
 Mike Adams 35
 Trent Cole 33    & 34 in Oct.
 DQ Jackson 32 & 33 in Sept.
 Kendall Langford 30
 Robert Mathis 35
 Eric Walden 30
 Darius Butler 30

As I said yesterday some of that means something but for the most part it wont matter we added some guys that can play and some of those guys can still play so we are ok and next years draft I think we go all defense.

[jameszeigler834]

6 hours ago, southwest1 said:

Nothing would make me happier than defeating Pittsburgh. This isn't anything against Mike Tomlin BTW who I have a ton of respect for. Joey Porter on the other hand...

 

Getting back to your post J834. I like your enthusiasm, but the Steelers are so potent on offense that we just aren't ready to take down that Steelers juggernaut yet. DeAngelo Williams, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, & Markus Wheaton. First, we have to stop getting humiliated by their squad & then maybe give them a run for their money. Next yr INDY might look respectable vs them not now, but it will come. 

nonsense man that is why we play the games if you don't bring your A game every week you get beat in this league and the 2014 game they didn't beat us we beat ourselfs with a couple of turnovers and got screwed on that total crap grounding call last year I knew we didn't stand a chance because luck was out and half of our line was hurt and the defense had people out with injury and it wasn't real good. But I think this year provided we stay healthy this team can do anything.

[Coltsman1788]

16 hours ago, Gavin said:

vs Lions-W

at Broncos-L

vs Chargers-W

at Jags-L

vs Bears-W

at Texans-L

at Titans-L

vs Chiefs-W

at Packers-L

vs Titans-W

vs Steelers-W

at Jets-L

vs Texans-W

at Vikings-L

at Raiders-L

vs Jags-W

 

I can see this team going anywhere between 6-10 to 10-6 (Road games vs Raiders, Vikings, Jets, Broncos can be a real toss up but I went 8-8. Going to be tougher then we think)

How confident are you in the Colts actually beating the Steelers?  Or the Chargers for that matter?  I'm not buying that they will.  The Colts usually lose to those teams and have never beaten them with Luck as QB.  I do however expect them to find some way to beat Denver.  So there you have it...7-9 is not such an off base of a prediction for these Colts.  Could be another tough season. 

[2006Coltsbestever]

51 minutes ago, Coltsman1788 said:

How confident are you in the Colts actually beating the Steelers?  Or the Chargers for that matter?  I'm not buying that they will.  The Colts usually lose to those teams and have never beaten them with Luck as QB.  I do however expect them to find some way to beat Denver.  So there you have it...7-9 is not such an off base of a prediction for these Colts.  Could be another tough season. 

He also has us losing to the Titans and I think we beat the Chargers here in Indy. Chargers stunk last season, if it was in SD I would think differently. We will sweep the Titans. Look at my predictions. The only one you can really question is the win at Minnesota, even if that's a loss I would still have us at 9-7. I think we will win a game or 2 though that we are not supposed too. I think we will lose against the Steelers as well.

[TDewar1987]

21 hours ago, Gavin said:

vs Lions-W

at Broncos-L

vs Chargers-W

at Jags-L

vs Bears-W

at Texans-L

at Titans-L

vs Chiefs-W

at Packers-L

vs Titans-W

vs Steelers-W

at Jets-L

vs Texans-W

at Vikings-L

at Raiders-L

vs Jags-W

 

I can see this team going anywhere between 6-10 to 10-6 (Road games vs Raiders, Vikings, Jets, Broncos can be a real toss up but I went 8-8. Going to be tougher then we think)

 

The two toughest games, in my opinion will be the Steelers and Packers. Packers because we play them at GB and Pitt, well Pitt is always tough.

I see us going 4-2 or 5-1 in the division. I'm not sold on Osweiler, I personally don't think he is worth the money and isn't that big of an improvement over Bryan Hoyer simply because Osweiler wont have Manning's assistance on the sideline, and Jacksonville will probably give us a good run. Tennessee is well, Tennessee. 

 

I think we have a good chance of going 12-4 to be honest.

 

The Lions will be a win especially without Megatron

We beat Denver last year and their best QB now is Mark Sanchez.

San Diego, well, apparently they have our number but I think that is a farce. They aren't New England.

The Bears, I think that will be a surprising game but we should still win.

The Chiefs are always tough.

The Jets will be tough at NY for sure, but I still think we can beat them. 

Vikings and Raiders are really toss ups. Say what you want, but those teams are up and coming. 

 

[theanarchist]

22 hours ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

A healthy Andrew Luck starting all 16 games is good for 10 wins, minimum, I don't care what any of these so-called experts say.

 

Keep in mind, all of these analysts that are suddenly picking the Colts to fall off the face of the Earth and be bottom-feeders in the South are the same people who didn't even hesitate to predict 13-3 and pencil us in for the Super Bowl last year. I'd suggest taking their analyses with a grain of salt.

Or a roll of toilet paper

[aaron11]

i put zero stock in odds or predictions right now.  everybody was saying we would win the division last year.  the colts have been a terrible team for gambling or predictions the last few years(cardinals were the money team)

 

we could be good, bad or mediocre, nothing would surprise me next year.   if the offense clicks and the defense over achieves, then we could be very good. 

 

a single injury on defense could really kill that unit, and drastically limit their upside

[King Colt]

If predictions were valuable and worth noting why not live at the race track and never work a day? Wonder why players hate reporters..............

[ColtStronger]

On ‎5‎/‎11‎/‎2016 at 0:12 PM, NewColtsFan said:

 

Are you read for this?        We're predicted to finish 7-9 in 3rd place in our division.

 

Houston is predicted to win at 8-8.    Then J'Ville, the Colts and the Titans all at 7-9.

 

A.    They don't like our defense.    6 starters over 30 is a bad sign.

 

B.    Luck has yet to live up to the hype for them.    Whether it's because of not a good enough supporting cast or better coaching,  they expect to see more from Luck.

 

 

Here's the write-up......

 

 

 

AFC South

1. Houston Texans: 8-8 (8.0 mean wins; SOS: 25)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-9 (7.4 mean wins; SOS: 22)
3. Indianapolis Colts: 7-9 (7.1 mean wins; SOS: 21)
4. Tennessee Titans: 7-9 (6.6 mean wins; SOS: 32)

Our forecast once again sees the AFC South as the division nobody wants to win. Just 1.4 mean wins separate the four teams, making this a real toss-up.

With Andrew Luck hopefully healthy for all 16 games, it sure seems like we should go back to favoring the Colts to return to dominating a weak division. But our projection system is accounting here for the fact that the Colts' offense wasn't very good even when Luck was on the field last season. Subjectively, we might explain away Luck's Week 1-3 performance as an early-season slump, and we might explain away his Week 6-8 performance as coming back too soon from his first injury. Objectively, our projection system sees that the Colts would have finished 20th in offensive DVOA even if we only counted games with Luck in the lineup. Meanwhile, the Colts will probably have the oldest defense in the league, generally an indicator of decline. Six projected starters will be 30 or older, as will pass-rush specialist Robert Mathis and nickelback Darius Butler.

Projections don't mean ish... Look at projections for the Panthers (NFC Champs) last season!  All of that is laughable.  Take it with a grain of salt.  I look for overall talent and the coaching staff as the main indication of how a team will perform.  Just because the Colts fell apart last season means absolutely NOTHING, other than they didn't live up to expectations last season.  How has Houston improved?  New QB?  Brock Oseweiler is God's gift to Earth or something, I suppose!  IMO he is avg QB. That means they still are in control?  Hardly! 

I would agree with Jacksonville improving, but to say all teams will be within 1 game and Houston on top, my opinion is as good as the next!