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Pro Football Outsiders: Predicts the Colts to Finish....


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Are you read for this?        We're predicted to finish 7-9 in 3rd place in our division.

 

Houston is predicted to win at 8-8.    Then J'Ville, the Colts and the Titans all at 7-9.

 

A.    They don't like our defense.    6 starters over 30 is a bad sign.

 

B.    Luck has yet to live up to the hype for them.    Whether it's because of not a good enough supporting cast or better coaching,  they expect to see more from Luck.

 

 

Here's the write-up......

 

 

 

AFC South

1. Houston Texans: 8-8 (8.0 mean wins; SOS: 25)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-9 (7.4 mean wins; SOS: 22)
3. Indianapolis Colts: 7-9 (7.1 mean wins; SOS: 21)
4. Tennessee Titans: 7-9 (6.6 mean wins; SOS: 32)

Our forecast once again sees the AFC South as the division nobody wants to win. Just 1.4 mean wins separate the four teams, making this a real toss-up.

With Andrew Luck hopefully healthy for all 16 games, it sure seems like we should go back to favoring the Colts to return to dominating a weak division. But our projection system is accounting here for the fact that the Colts' offense wasn't very good even when Luck was on the field last season. Subjectively, we might explain away Luck's Week 1-3 performance as an early-season slump, and we might explain away his Week 6-8 performance as coming back too soon from his first injury. Objectively, our projection system sees that the Colts would have finished 20th in offensive DVOA even if we only counted games with Luck in the lineup. Meanwhile, the Colts will probably have the oldest defense in the league, generally an indicator of decline. Six projected starters will be 30 or older, as will pass-rush specialist Robert Mathis and nickelback Darius Butler.

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19 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Are you read for this?        We're predicted to finish 7-9 in 3rd place in our division.

 

Houston is predicted to win at 8-8.    Then J'Ville, the Colts and the Titans all at 7-9.

 

A.    They don't like our defense.    6 starters over 30 is a bad sign.

 

B.    Luck has yet to live up to the hype for them.    Whether it's because of not a good enough supporting cast or better coaching,  they expect to see more from Luck.

 

 

Here's the write-up......

 

 

 

AFC South

1. Houston Texans: 8-8 (8.0 mean wins; SOS: 25)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-9 (7.4 mean wins; SOS: 22)
3. Indianapolis Colts: 7-9 (7.1 mean wins; SOS: 21)
4. Tennessee Titans: 7-9 (6.6 mean wins; SOS: 32)

Our forecast once again sees the AFC South as the division nobody wants to win. Just 1.4 mean wins separate the four teams, making this a real toss-up.

With Andrew Luck hopefully healthy for all 16 games, it sure seems like we should go back to favoring the Colts to return to dominating a weak division. But our projection system is accounting here for the fact that the Colts' offense wasn't very good even when Luck was on the field last season. Subjectively, we might explain away Luck's Week 1-3 performance as an early-season slump, and we might explain away his Week 6-8 performance as coming back too soon from his first injury. Objectively, our projection system sees that the Colts would have finished 20th in offensive DVOA even if we only counted games with Luck in the lineup. Meanwhile, the Colts will probably have the oldest defense in the league, generally an indicator of decline. Six projected starters will be 30 or older, as will pass-rush specialist Robert Mathis and nickelback Darius Butler.

I understand the thread but those predictions mean absolutely nothing.  

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A healthy Andrew Luck starting all 16 games is good for 10 wins, minimum, I don't care what any of these so-called experts say.

 

Keep in mind, all of these analysts that are suddenly picking the Colts to fall off the face of the Earth and be bottom-feeders in the South are the same people who didn't even hesitate to predict 13-3 and pencil us in for the Super Bowl last year. I'd suggest taking their analyses with a grain of salt.

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47 minutes ago, csmopar said:

They don't know who's gonna start where. And if we went 8 and 8 without, if we keep him healthy,  no way we do worse than that

Have you seen our schedule?  I'm not confident

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56 minutes ago, csmopar said:

They don't know who's gonna start where. And if we went 8 and 8 without, if we keep him healthy,  no way we do worse than that

We went 8-8 last year. Unless we can ask all of the teams to keep their rosters exactly the same and not get any better, and play under the same exact situation, with the exception that we get to have a healthy Andrew Luck, last year's 8-8 record does not mean much going forward. Things are always changing.

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14 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

A healthy Andrew Luck starting all 16 games is good for 10 wins, minimum, I don't care what any of these so-called experts say.

 

Keep in mind, all of these analysts that are suddenly picking the Colts to fall off the face of the Earth and be bottom-feeders in the South are the same people who didn't even hesitate to predict 13-3 and pencil us in for the Super Bowl last year. I'd suggest taking their analyses with a grain of salt.

In fairness, the division does appear to be getting stronger, so if you figure we'll split with 2 maybe all 3 teams, it really could be as close as the above indicates.  I don't see us sub-500, but I can conceivably see the worst team in the division have 6 wins.

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Just now, OffensivelyPC said:

In fairness, the division does appear to be getting stronger, so if you figure we'll split with 2 maybe all 3 teams, it really could be as close as the above indicates.  I don't see us sub-500, but I can conceivably see the worst team in the division have 6 wins.

I agree with all of that. I don't think any team in the South finishes with worse than an 8-8 record this season. That mark would actually be a vast improvement for both Jacksonville and Tennessee, and something for both of those franchises to really build on.

 

My biggest issue is that a lot of the experts seem to think the Jags are just gonna roll the division and rattle off double-digit wins, but I just don't see that type of quick turnaround for them, especially since they'll be so heavily relying on Malik Jackson and a bunch of rookies on the defensive side of the ball.

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1 hour ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Are you read for this?        We're predicted to finish 7-9 in 3rd place in our division.

 

Houston is predicted to win at 8-8.    Then J'Ville, the Colts and the Titans all at 7-9.

 

A.    They don't like our defense.    6 starters over 30 is a bad sign.

 

B.    Luck has yet to live up to the hype for them.    Whether it's because of not a good enough supporting cast or better coaching,  they expect to see more from Luck.

 

 

Here's the write-up......

 

 

 

AFC South

1. Houston Texans: 8-8 (8.0 mean wins; SOS: 25)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-9 (7.4 mean wins; SOS: 22)
3. Indianapolis Colts: 7-9 (7.1 mean wins; SOS: 21)
4. Tennessee Titans: 7-9 (6.6 mean wins; SOS: 32)

Our forecast once again sees the AFC South as the division nobody wants to win. Just 1.4 mean wins separate the four teams, making this a real toss-up.

With Andrew Luck hopefully healthy for all 16 games, it sure seems like we should go back to favoring the Colts to return to dominating a weak division. But our projection system is accounting here for the fact that the Colts' offense wasn't very good even when Luck was on the field last season. Subjectively, we might explain away Luck's Week 1-3 performance as an early-season slump, and we might explain away his Week 6-8 performance as coming back too soon from his first injury. Objectively, our projection system sees that the Colts would have finished 20th in offensive DVOA even if we only counted games with Luck in the lineup. Meanwhile, the Colts will probably have the oldest defense in the league, generally an indicator of decline. Six projected starters will be 30 or older, as will pass-rush specialist Robert Mathis and nickelback Darius Butler.

The Colts finished last in the division in total defense, #26 in the league. Jacksonville finished #24, while Tennessee finished at #12 and Houston at #3, per NFL.com stats.

 

Looking at that, you would think that if Jacksonville improved their defense to go along with their potent offense, they would have a dangerous team. They have added Gipson at Safety, Amukamara at CB, along with Ramsey at CB, and Jack at ILB, and Malik Jackson to their D-line. They have a good blend of veteran and young talent now.

 

Houston had the #3 defense, despite their poor offense. So if you want to say the Colts defense suffered due to their poor offense when Luck went out, it's an invalid argument in this case, as both teams dealt with QB issues; however, Houston's defense rose to the occasion while Indy's defense did not. If Osweiller is an improvement for Houston at QB, their team becomes the front runner in the division, IMO.

 

I see Tennessee as an improving team, but not a true contender. However, with Marriota, they can be a challenge.

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3 minutes ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

I agree with all of that. I don't think any team in the South finishes with worse than an 8-8 record this season. That mark would actually be a vast improvement for both Jacksonville and Tennessee, and something for both of those franchises to really build on.

 

My biggest issue is that a lot of the experts seem to think the Jags are just gonna roll the division and rattle off double-digit wins, but I just don't see that type of quick turnaround for them, especially since they'll be so heavily relying on Malik Jackson and a bunch of rookies on the defensive side of the ball.

Yep.  Crazier things have happened, but at this point in time, the division is for the Colts to lose.  Until they are dethroned, there's not much reason to really assume otherwise - at least from a neutral perspective.  Arguments of course can be made, but the games never really turn out the way anyone ever thinks.

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While QB play has dramatically improved in the division, Indy will probably be the only one with elite QB play in 2016.  That should make them the favorite.  I can't come to their figures on defensive starters above 30, unless Arthur Jones turns 30 during the year and they foolishly expect him to start.  Shows how well they know the team...

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Vegas has us winning the division only odds I need to see they are the best at what they do .

 

And they seem to forget Luck healthy for 2 quarters was good enough to whip all over the best team in the NFL last season .

 

 

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45 minutes ago, Flash said:

The Colts finished last in the division in total defense, #26 in the league. Jacksonville finished #24, while Tennessee finished at #12 and Houston at #3, per NFL.com stats.

 

Looking at that, you would think that if Jacksonville improved their defense to go along with their potent offense, they would have a dangerous team. They have added Gipson at Safety, Amukamara at CB, along with Ramsey at CB, and Jack at ILB, and Malik Jackson to their D-line. They have a good blend of veteran and young talent now.

 

Houston had the #3 defense, despite their poor offense. So if you want to say the Colts defense suffered due to their poor offense when Luck went out, it's an invalid argument in this case, as both teams dealt with QB issues; however, Houston's defense rose to the occasion while Indy's defense did not. If Osweiller is an improvement for Houston at QB, their team becomes the front runner in the division, IMO.

 

I see Tennessee as an improving team, but not a true contender. However, with Marriota, they can be a challenge.

Stats lie Houston D was ranked high because teams let off the gas so early in games because nobody was scared of there offense . Our D kept us in games stats never tell the whole story .

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14 minutes ago, B~Town said:

Stats lie Houston D was ranked high because teams let off the gas so early in games because nobody was scared of there offense . Our D kept us in games stats never tell the whole story .

They played 16 regular season games. There's enough data there for it to be reliable. I highly doubt that teams let off the gas peddle against a team that won the AFC South division and made it to the playoffs.

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1 hour ago, Narcosys said:

Have you seen our schedule?  I'm not confident

Just for the heck of it, I looked at our regular season schedule again. There's a lot of teams we face with a good defense this year. The Jets, the Raiders, Kansas City, & Mike Zimmer's Vikings. INDY's better than 7-9. We can go 10-6. And what's all this love for the Texans all of a sudden? Brock OZ is the next elite QB after an 8-2 season now? Please...

 

Considering that INDY has more or less owned the AFC South for a decade, we deserve respect for our division longevity. These same experts always put NE at the top of the AFC East every single year regardless because of their dominance at the QB position but Luck is overrated or on a downward spiral now? Who are we kidding? LOL! 

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vs Lions-W

at Broncos-L

vs Chargers-W

at Jags-L

vs Bears-W

at Texans-L

at Titans-L

vs Chiefs-W

at Packers-L

vs Titans-W

vs Steelers-W

at Jets-L

vs Texans-W

at Vikings-L

at Raiders-L

vs Jags-W

 

I can see this team going anywhere between 6-10 to 10-6 (Road games vs Raiders, Vikings, Jets, Broncos can be a real toss up but I went 8-8. Going to be tougher then we think)

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Did they forget what we did with a halfway healthy Luck and Chud leading the offense?!?!? They didn't even mention how easily our offense decimated Denver's Super Bowl winning defense!! Or how the week before we almost beat the 15-1 SB Runner Up Carolina Panthers, taking the game to overtime (Under Pep, not Chud)!! Plus, theu failed to take into account the added protection for Luck this season to keep him healthy and give him more time in the pocket!Yes, our defense could use some help but this prediction is just flat out stupid!!

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10 minutes ago, Gavin said:

vs Lions-W

at Broncos-L

vs Chargers-W

at Jags-L

vs Bears-W

at Texans-L

at Titans-L

vs Chiefs-W

at Packers-L

vs Titans-W

vs Steelers-W

at Jets-L

vs Texans-W

at Vikings-L

at Raiders-L

vs Jags-W

 

I can see this team going anywhere between 6-10 to 10-6 (Road games vs Raiders, Vikings, Jets, Broncos can be a real toss up but I went 8-8. Going to be tougher then we think)

Those people are stupid there is no way in hell we are dropping to 6-10.

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19 minutes ago, southwest1 said:

 

Considering that INDY has more or less owned the AFC South for a decade, we deserve respect for our division longevity. 

 

 

Uh... we won the division three out of the last five years. 

 

I know a decade is ten years & everything, but I think the division belongs to us. 

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1 minute ago, thunderkyss said:

 

 

Uh... we won the division three out of the last five years. 

 

I know a decade is ten years & everything, but I think the division belongs to us. 

You don't even believe that

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only way I could see us with a sub .500 record is if we get nailed with the injury bug again. With a reasonably healthy roster, and some hopefully meaningful improvement along our O-line, 10-6 or greater.  I think what will be most interesting to see is if we can generate a better running game this year. That would take some pass rush pressure off of Luck and just pressure in general on our O to throw the ball the vast majority of plays. If Gore gets 1,000+ think of the time of possession we could have to take pressure also off of our D as well.

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1 minute ago, thunderkyss said:

 

 

Uh... we won the division three out of the last five years. 

 

I know a decade is ten years & everything, but I think the division belongs to us. 

Wasn't that my point? I thought it was evident. Habit & success have dictated our dominance in the South until we start getting knocked off consistently. 

 

Once either Houston or Jacksonville starts denying us annual playoff runs, I will give them their dues not before. 

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34 minutes ago, Gavin said:

vs Lions-W

at Broncos-L

vs Chargers-W

at Jags-L

vs Bears-W

at Texans-L

at Titans-L

vs Chiefs-W

at Packers-L

vs Titans-W

vs Steelers-W

at Jets-L

vs Texans-W

at Vikings-L

at Raiders-L

vs Jags-W

 

I can see this team going anywhere between 6-10 to 10-6 (Road games vs Raiders, Vikings, Jets, Broncos can be a real toss up but I went 8-8. Going to be tougher then we think)

I think they start off 3-0, minimum. I honestly don't see them losing that game to the Broncos.

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37 minutes ago, thunderkyss said:

 

 

Uh... we won the division three out of the last five years. 

 

I know a decade is ten years & everything, but I think the division belongs to us. 

Nothing belongs to you when you eek out the division with both wins over a backup quarterback.  You can think whatever you want, but road to the division title is through Andrew Luck, and no one else.  Oh yeah, you beat him in his rookie season...[slow clap]

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1 minute ago, Steamboat_Shaun said:

I think they start off 3-0, minimum. I honestly don't see them losing that game to the Broncos.

It will come down to how much pressure we get on Sanchez I think. If we just let him step back and throw he can pick us apart. He's a step up from the Peyton Manning that was out on the field last year who was wasn't really even a shell of his former self at QB but was more along for the ride to see how far that Bronco defense could carry them (He even said as much after being interviewed after a couple wins last year)

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football outsiders has pretty realistic stats as far as stats go. Right now it's just a prediction and obviously no stats are in for this year yet. So it's an open book.

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2 hours ago, Flash said:

The Colts finished last in the division in total defense, #26 in the league. Jacksonville finished #24, while Tennessee finished at #12 and Houston at #3, per NFL.com stats.

 

Looking at that, you would think that if Jacksonville improved their defense to go along with their potent offense, they would have a dangerous team. They have added Gipson at Safety, Amukamara at CB, along with Ramsey at CB, and Jack at ILB, and Malik Jackson to their D-line. They have a good blend of veteran and young talent now.

 

Houston had the #3 defense, despite their poor offense. So if you want to say the Colts defense suffered due to their poor offense when Luck went out, it's an invalid argument in this case, as both teams dealt with QB issues; however, Houston's defense rose to the occasion while Indy's defense did not. If Osweiller is an improvement for Houston at QB, their team becomes the front runner in the division, IMO.

 

I see Tennessee as an improving team, but not a true contender. However, with Marriota, they can be a challenge.

Ya and all of that means next to nothing if we get everybody we lost to season ending injury's back 100% and they stay that way this season the sky is the limit the only *s that are saying losing record is haters nothing more.

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Just now, jameszeigler834 said:

Ya and all of that means next to nothing if we get everybody we lost to season ending injury's back 100% and they stay that way this season the sky is the limit the only *s that are saying losing record is haters nothing more.

Also the Texans D wouldn't be 3rd without Watt.

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I've noticed that those who have listed each game gave INDY an L in the column. Why? 

 

Yes, Jordy Nelson Aaron Rogers favorite target is back & Clay Matthews & Julius Peppers are always studs on defense. However, GB defense as a whole really doesn't scare me that much. Unless your thinking Rogers is just gonna throw TDs left & right. 

 

I still need to see if Nelson is totally back from injury first. The Packers as a native Badger citizen myself don't intimidate me all that much. I'm not giving the Cheese heads a blanket victory straight out the gate. Forget that nonsense. 

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4 hours ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Are you read for this?        We're predicted to finish 7-9 in 3rd place in our division.

 

Houston is predicted to win at 8-8.    Then J'Ville, the Colts and the Titans all at 7-9.

 

A.    They don't like our defense.    6 starters over 30 is a bad sign.

 

B.    Luck has yet to live up to the hype for them.    Whether it's because of not a good enough supporting cast or better coaching,  they expect to see more from Luck.

 

 

Here's the write-up......

 

 

 

AFC South

1. Houston Texans: 8-8 (8.0 mean wins; SOS: 25)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars: 7-9 (7.4 mean wins; SOS: 22)
3. Indianapolis Colts: 7-9 (7.1 mean wins; SOS: 21)
4. Tennessee Titans: 7-9 (6.6 mean wins; SOS: 32)

Our forecast once again sees the AFC South as the division nobody wants to win. Just 1.4 mean wins separate the four teams, making this a real toss-up.

With Andrew Luck hopefully healthy for all 16 games, it sure seems like we should go back to favoring the Colts to return to dominating a weak division. But our projection system is accounting here for the fact that the Colts' offense wasn't very good even when Luck was on the field last season. Subjectively, we might explain away Luck's Week 1-3 performance as an early-season slump, and we might explain away his Week 6-8 performance as coming back too soon from his first injury. Objectively, our projection system sees that the Colts would have finished 20th in offensive DVOA even if we only counted games with Luck in the lineup. Meanwhile, the Colts will probably have the oldest defense in the league, generally an indicator of decline. Six projected starters will be 30 or older, as will pass-rush specialist Robert Mathis and nickelback Darius Butler.

I'll bet they had us getting killed by the undefeated Broncos too last year. They were finally looking like a complete team...then Andrew went down.

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I'm not sure I agree with that. Anyone could take the division but I don't see how the Colts don't win at least 9 games. A healthy Andrew Luck with better protection is deadly. Plus no one in the division has the personal to cover the Colts receiving core, which could be the best in the league. 

 

The he offense should go back to how it was in 2014 where it was the best in the league for a few weeks. That Colts team had a worse D and O-Line and won 11 games. 

 

The he division will be tougher but the Colts have won outside the division as well and have beaten better teams with less.

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