Potentential major Draft impact day today!

[ColtsBlueFL]

35 players have gathered in Indianapolis yesterday and today.  Unlike the Combine event, It is an invite no player wants.  This is for players medically red flagged and for a recheck of their health and rehab progress, or lack thereof.  The main goal of the recheck: to provide a forecast for an injured player’s health, by training camp, by Week 1 and for the long-term. This is one of the last major impact events of teams draft boards. Imaging (X-Rays or MRI, etc...) were completed Thursday, full physical exams are today.

 

It is a safe assumption that if the end result is good for a player, they will retain their high draft round status and grade.  If the result isn't as good, then a fall down the board is most likely.  Player results will not be known- unless the player announces it, or the information gets leaked.  So while the NFL teams will know (all 32 are there) the results and adjust their boards accordingly as necessary, we may not.

 

Here are 6 top flight players back in Indy with their future on the line:

Jaylon Smith  (knee) {nerve damage}
Myles Jack (knee) {has not run a 40 yet} {some teams fear a future microfracture surgery will be necessary}
Shaq Lawson (shoulder)
Corey Coleman (sports hernia)
Kendall Fuller (Knee)

Karl Joseph (knee)

 

Some other pretty decent candidates-

Tyler Higbee (knee)  *{also arrested recently}*
Devontae Booker (knee)
Kolby Listenbee (sports hernia)
Antonio Morrison (knee)

 

If one of your favorite players from last season is coming off some kind of injury, they are also one of another 25 players that are at the recheck.   I even think Drew Ott might be there as well, if he has any hopes of making the draft at all and not going UDFA.

 

Behind the scenes in Indy, an event that could have a major impact on the NFL draft is going on.

[IndyD4U]

It's a big, BIG day for Jaylon Smith. If he's progressing well he could very well be a mid-late 1st Rd. pick. I'm curious if we'll get some news about these prospects later today

 

[Superman]

2 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

Myles Jack (knee) {has not run a 40 yet} {some teams fear a future microfracture surgery will be necessary}

 

Any source for any of this?

[stitches]

If Jaylon Smith gets medically cleared(i.e. the doctors tell you - he might miss 2016, but will be good in the long-run) would you draft him at 18? 48?

[ColtsBlueFL]

27 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Any source for any of this?

 

Sure-

 

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/04/14/nfl-draft-combine-second-medical-exams-myles-jack-jaylon-smith

 

"Yet another team currently believes Jack may need an additional procedure on his knee, possibly microfracture surgery, at some point in the future. Jack said yesterday that he does not believe he’ll need any further procedures."

[stitches]

 

[ColtsBlueFL]

17 minutes ago, stitches said:

 

Yup! Those team(s) that want Jack bad are willing to bet on the optimistic side of his prognosis.  Those that need reassurance of their choice/value will look toward the less optimistic possibilities.  Besides, teams will not let their secrets out of the bag; how they feel about their own medical recheck.  Possibly only players and agents leaking news in the most positive light they can muster.

 

The health of the meniscus after surgical repair is key for Jack.

[Superman]

58 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Sure-

 

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2016/04/14/nfl-draft-combine-second-medical-exams-myles-jack-jaylon-smith

 

"Yet another team currently believes Jack may need an additional procedure on his knee, possibly microfracture surgery, at some point in the future. Jack said yesterday that he does not believe he’ll need any further procedures."

 

I went looking and found that. Thanks for linking it. 

 

Future meniscus and cartilage issues are always a concern, and sometimes they lead to microfracture. In Jack's case, they repaired the meniscus, which is less common than meniscectomy. As far as I understand, the thinking is that if they can repair it and it heals well, then the future implications with respect to the meniscus and cartilage are less worrisome. On the other hand, it's possible they also did a chondroplasty, in which case there are still concerns with cartilage, and potentially a concern with future microfracture.

 

I think there's little to this, based on earlier reports of his knee. But maybe the meniscus isn't healing right, maybe there are loose bodies, maybe there are other things going on. I can't imagine him dropping, but it would be something if he lasted to #18.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

If Jaylon Smith gets medically cleared(i.e. the doctors tell you - he might miss 2016, but will be good in the long-run) would you draft him at 18? 48?

 

#48, yes. Not #18.

[ColtsBlueFL]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

If Jaylon Smith gets medically cleared(i.e. the doctors tell you - he might miss 2016, but will be good in the long-run) would you draft him at 18? 48?

 

That's an optimistic desire for Jaylon.  Unfortunately (as Peyton Manning demonstrated) nerve repair is a slow and arduous process.  And there is no certainty that complete recovery can be achieved.  What they will measure is how far has Jaylon come from the February tests.  Then the educated guesswork for time frames both optistic and pessimistic will be developed.  Then teams will slot him n their Sub board appropriately.  I do not expect any A. Peterson or Todd Gurly accelerated recovery in this situation, unfortunately for that young man.

 

So to answer, No earlier than @ #48 if improvement was notably on course or ahead of schedule.  Further down the board if improvement was less than expected.

[ColtsBlueFL]

3 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

I went looking and found that. Thanks for linking it. 

 

Future meniscus and cartilage issues are always a concern, and sometimes they lead to microfracture. In Jack's case, they repaired the meniscus, which is less common than meniscectomy. As far as I understand, the thinking is that if they can repair it and it heals well, then the future implications with respect to the meniscus and cartilage are less worrisome. On the other hand, it's possible they also did a chondroplasty, in which case there are still concerns with cartilage, and potentially a concern with future microfracture.

 

I think there's little to this, based on earlier reports of his knee. But maybe the meniscus isn't healing right, maybe there are loose bodies, maybe there are other things going on. I can't imagine him dropping, but it would be something if he lasted to #18.

 

Exactly.  Furthermore, surgical repair is not typical.  But if they can do it, that really is the best recourse for an athlete and the 6 month healing process is key.  That is why Jack is getting the exam.  He's at that 5-6 month critical stage, and teams want to know exactly where he stands medically.

 

BTW, even though it was surgically repaired,and could turn out great, later knee injuries could still potentially be compounded because of this injury/repair.  But that is probably longer term, not short term, I feel.

[Traines]

Hopefully the Colts are putting a bunch of false information about Myles Jack's health out there...get him to drop to 18

[Boiler_Colt]

6 minutes ago, Traines said:

Hopefully the Colts are putting a bunch of false information about Myles Jack's health out there...get him to drop to 18

And with the Colts injury luck he would fall to them and then never play a down because of an unrelated injury.

[stitches]

I hope he drops to us and I hope Grigson is not stupid enough to pass on him...

[ColtsBlueFL]

8 minutes ago, Traines said:

Hopefully the Colts are putting a bunch of false information about Myles Jack's health out there...get him to drop to 18

 

Would be great, but every single team has their own Team Physician and Athletic Trainer on site to do their own evaluation for themselves.

[Archer]

Shaq Lawson has become my fondest hope at #18, but it seems he'll be gone unless there is an ongoing concern with his shoulder.  Of course, if all he needs is additional time, we can weather the wait with Mathis, Cole, and Walden all returning at OLB...

[Traines]

2 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

Would be great, but every single team has their own Team Physician and Athletic Trainer on site to do their own evaluation for themselves.

It was an attempt at humor...with your response I can see I did a poor job of conveying that.

[Traines]

1 minute ago, Archer said:

Shaq Lawson has become my fondest hope at #18, but it seems he'll be gone unless there is an ongoing concern with his shoulder.  Of course, if all he needs is additional time, we can weather the wait with Mathis, Cole, and Walden all returning at OLB...

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/04/15/shaq-lawsons-shoulder-checks-out-fine-in-indy/

[stitches]

 

[ColtsBlueFL]

Just now, Traines said:

It was an attempt at humor...with your response I can see I did a poor job of conveying that.

 

Yes, emoticons can go a long way in that regard, 

[Traines]

1 minute ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

Yes, emoticons can go a long way in that regard, 

am I doing this right?

[ColtsBlueFL]

24 minutes ago, Traines said:

am I doing this right?

 

 

[stitches]

After medical recheck, LB Jaylon Smith expected to miss 2016

[PeterBowman]

2 minutes ago, stitches said:

After medical recheck, LB Jaylon Smith expected to miss 2016

hmmmmmm if there's no nerve damage maybe take him at 48 if he's available?

[Colts_Fan12]

If that's all with smith is missing 2016 then take him at 48!!!

[loudnproudcolt]

Taking him in the second, when most teams are looking for a starter, is a huge gamble. The article says the nerve damage is as it was during the combine. Nerve damage, and as someone mentioned Peyton, takes a long time to regenerate, and no one knows if it will. He is young, he has a much better chance it will, but still a gamble. We will not take him now and he will fall. The team who takes him is someone like Tenn. or NE who have multiple draft choices in the 2nd and 3rd round. It is worth the gamble then. I hate to think of Tenn. gambling one of those picks they picked up from LA, and him turning returning to complete form. On the other hand, I am a big fan of Jaylon, and hope he does get better.  He was a hell of a player and would have gone top 5. If t.he nerve damage repairs itself over the year, someone is going to get a steal.

 

The one thing I don't like about all this is the negatives people are putting out, as shown by the info. on Jack. Teams who want him want him to fall, so leak to Rappoport there is a problem, Jack's agent's see the tweet and talk to an ESPN reporter. In the end, it is up to each individual team doctor who will fall.

 

Carolina got a good player two years ago when Star Loutolalai fell on heart concerns, which turned out to be nothing, so it happens. On the other hand, I can think of a couple of picks the last few years gambled on injuries which turned out bad. SF has had terrible luck. First Lattirmore, and then either two years ago or last year, the guard who was from Clemson, who would have gone 1st round, tore his ACL, and SF picked him up in the 3rd. They had a lot of picks then and few holes, so they could take a gamble. That is why a team like NE is in a good spot if they choose to. If I am Tenn. I am really looking at those medicals really hard, and telling my team Doctor, give me some good news!

[loudnproudcolt]

What if Jack started to fall and fell all the way to us? Then you would know the concerns are legit. Would you still draft him!

[Defjamz26]

I don't care about Smith missing all of 2016. That much was obvious. I just want to know the specifics of the nerve damage and if he can fully return to form. Is he Marcus Lattimore?

[ColtsBlueFL]

1 hour ago, stitches said:

 

 

This quote-

 

" But I'm told his report wasn't much different from the Combine. " 

 

is a red flag, if true.  It is documented that he did have nerve damage, and suffered drop foot because of it. (Dr. David Chao spotted it from a video Jaylon himself put out on the web). This says the regeneration of the nerve isn't progressing ver fast/well.  That is why the confirmations He'll miss this year.  It can only be hoped that the nerve has regenerated enough by next year to spend an early pick this year.

 

Those with a stocked team and/or many draft picks can afford the luxury pick, anywhere after the first round. High Risk, high reward potential.

[ColtsBlueFL]

1 hour ago, PeterBowman said:

hmmmmmm if there's no nerve damage maybe take him at 48 if he's available?

 

No, there was nerve damage was spotted by Dr. David Chao on a rehab video by Jaylon,

 

 

and it was confirmed at the combine.

 

"And at the NFL combine on Saturday, doctors confirmed nerve damage in both his knee and ankle, causing “multiple” teams to fail the 20-year-old on his physical, according to Adam Schefter and Jeff Legwold."

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/early-lead/wp/2016/02/27/more-bad-news-for-former-notre-dame-linebacker-jaylon-smith/

 

Huge risk, IMO. Teams that are stocked and/or have extra draft slots might still make a go of him.  Could well come up snake eyes as much as lucky 7.

 

 

[Superman]

37 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

This quote-

 

" But I'm told his report wasn't much different from the Combine. " 

 

is a red flag, if true.  It is documented that he did have nerve damage, and suffered drop foot because of it. (Dr. David Chao spotted it from a video Jaylon himself put out on the web). This says the regeneration of the nerve isn't progressing ver fast/well.  That is why the confirmations He'll miss this year.  It can only be hoped that the nerve has regenerated enough by next year to spend an early pick this year.

 

Those with a stocked team and/or many draft picks can afford the luxury pick, anywhere after the first round. High Risk, high reward potential.

 

He's better off going #32 than #31. He has a $5m insurance policy that kicks in if he drops out of the first round. Last year there was a $100K difference between those two picks; there was about a $1.5m difference between #32 and #33. I'm not sure how the contracts break this year, because of the Patriots penalty, but even still, he'll make more money if he drops to the second round. Even if he fell to #48, that would be a $3m difference, so he'd be ahead by $2m with insurance.

 

Teams have been moving up to the early second round for a guy that they really like. The overnight break allows a lot of business to get done. I could see Jaylon Smith going somewhere between #32-35. I could also see him falling a lot further, if the reports that he's made little progress since February and is likely to miss the season are true.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing the Colts trade next year's third to get back to the bottom of the second and take him. It's an obvious risk, but the point is that you're not using one of this year's best picks for him, you're using a 2017 pick for a player that you expect to be on the field in 2017. That seems like the right way to make that kind of move.

[Superman]

Also, that insurance policy might have a tax free payout, provided Smith paid premiums. Maybe he didn't, but if he did, the value of that policy is even greater than I thought. I'd give up $1.5m taxable in exchange for $5m tax free. That's a net gain of about $4.25m. 

 

It's a good thing he has that policy. It really sucks what happened to him. I like Myles Jack better, regardless of either's injury situation (I know I'm in the minority), but Smith is likely a top ten guy if he's healthy. Maybe top five. One freak accident in his last game in college, and now he's in this situation. Having a nice payday doesn't change the fact that he might never play football at a high level again. 

[Ryan Pelley]

Fingers crossed for Jaylon Smith. Guy is an outstanding player, seems like a level headed guy. Of course his stock will fall now, but how low? If he's there mid 2nd, I would love seeing the Colts drafting him with high hopes that the nerve damage fully heals.

[wig]

13 minutes ago, Superman said:

Also, that insurance policy might have a tax free payout, provided Smith paid premiums. Maybe he didn't, but if he did, the value of that policy is even greater than I thought. I'd give up $1.5m taxable in exchange for $5m tax free. That's a net gain of about $4.25m. 

 

It's a good thing he has that policy. It really sucks what happened to him. I like Myles Jack better, regardless of either's injury situation (I know I'm in the minority), but Smith is likely a top ten guy if he's healthy. Maybe top five. One freak accident in his last game in college, and now he's in this situation. Having a nice payday doesn't change the fact that he might never play football at a high level again. 

 

I'm happy for the guys that the policy pays off for.  Ideally it wouldn't be an issue, obviously, but it's nice when that's what they're left with.  

 

Look at Ifo Ekpre-Olomu.  Thought to be a 1st rd pick (I'm a big fan of his but that was a rd too high) and he ended up as a 7th rd pick that was cut less than a year later.

 

 

Oh, and as far as Jaylon goes, if I knew he was going to be healthy after a redshirt year, I'd take him at 18.  Unfortunately you can't know that.

[Colts_Fan12]

33 minutes ago, wig said:

 

I'm happy for the guys that the policy pays off for.  Ideally it wouldn't be an issue, obviously, but it's nice when that's what they're left with.  

 

Look at Ifo Ekpre-Olomu.  Thought to be a 1st rd pick (I'm a big fan of his but that was a rd too high) and he ended up as a 7th rd pick that was cut less than a year later.

 

 

Oh, and as far as Jaylon goes, if I knew he was going to be healthy after a redshirt year, I'd take him at 18.  Unfortunately you can't know that.

Same I say take him at 48 but if there was some way to know like you said I also would take him at 18 he was that damn good I was really looking forward to him joining the NFL this injury really sucks 

[BProland85]

2 hours ago, Colts_Fan12 said:

If that's all with smith is missing 2016 then take him at 48!!!

 

That's if Tennessee with their three 2nd round picks don't take him first. I hate that they trade raped LA like that.

[BlueShoe]

5 hours ago, stitches said:

 

 

Clear as mud. LOL

[BlueShoe]

2 hours ago, loudnproudcolt said:

Taking him in the second, when most teams are looking for a starter, is a huge gamble. The article says the nerve damage is as it was during the combine. Nerve damage, and as someone mentioned Peyton, takes a long time to regenerate, and no one knows if it will. He is young, he has a much better chance it will, but still a gamble. We will not take him now and he will fall. The team who takes him is someone like Tenn. or NE who have multiple draft choices in the 2nd and 3rd round. It is worth the gamble then. I hate to think of Tenn. gambling one of those picks they picked up from LA, and him turning returning to complete form. On the other hand, I am a big fan of Jaylon, and hope he does get better.  He was a hell of a player and would have gone top 5. If t.he nerve damage repairs itself over the year, someone is going to get a steal.

 

The one thing I don't like about all this is the negatives people are putting out, as shown by the info. on Jack. Teams who want him want him to fall, so leak to Rappoport there is a problem, Jack's agent's see the tweet and talk to an ESPN reporter. In the end, it is up to each individual team doctor who will fall.

 

Carolina got a good player two years ago when Star Loutolalai fell on heart concerns, which turned out to be nothing, so it happens. On the other hand, I can think of a couple of picks the last few years gambled on injuries which turned out bad. SF has had terrible luck. First Lattirmore, and then either two years ago or last year, the guard who was from Clemson, who would have gone 1st round, tore his ACL, and SF picked him up in the 3rd. They had a lot of picks then and few holes, so they could take a gamble. That is why a team like NE is in a good spot if they choose to. If I am Tenn. I am really looking at those medicals really hard, and telling my team Doctor, give me some good news!

 

Good stuff.

 

Yeah, I agree. I think we should pass brother. 

 

It's a good thought process to brainstorm, but in the end, too much of a gamble. 

[BlueShoe]

2 hours ago, loudnproudcolt said:

What if Jack started to fall and fell all the way to us? Then you would know the concerns are legit. Would you still draft him!

 

It is not an easy decision to take him, even if he is there. 

 

We would have to play him at WILB. 

 

I am not a fan of taking a player in the first round and moving them to a new position. Maybe I am wrong about this. I don't know.

[BlueShoe]

2 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

This quote-

 

" But I'm told his report wasn't much different from the Combine. " 

 

is a red flag, if true.  It is documented that he did have nerve damage, and suffered drop foot because of it. (Dr. David Chao spotted it from a video Jaylon himself put out on the web). This says the regeneration of the nerve isn't progressing ver fast/well.  That is why the confirmations He'll miss this year.  It can only be hoped that the nerve has regenerated enough by next year to spend an early pick this year.

 

Those with a stocked team and/or many draft picks can afford the luxury pick, anywhere after the first round. High Risk, high reward potential.

 

He might go undrafted.

 

By the way, good thread man.