Spence & Nkemdiche: Would you?

[Superman]

Both Noah Spence and Robert Nkemdiche have noteworthy off field question marks. The Colts generally shy away from players with questionable pasts, unless they can get them in later rounds. Grigson has basically said that those guys aren't in the mix before the 5th round. Spence failed multiple drug tests at Ohio State, but has reportedly been clean for the past couple years. Nkemdiche apparently got high on synthetic marijuana, fell out of a window, was arrested for possession, and was suspended for his team's bowl game. He also has a reputation for being weird, a little spacey, and having some "interesting" motivations. I think it's safe to say the Colts won't draft either player.

 

However, they are two of the best defensive players to come out this year. Spence plays a position that is particularly weak at the top, and is probably the best pure edge rusher in the draft. He has all the traits you look for, and can play 4-3 DE and either Sam or Rush in the Colts hybrid/3-4 defense. Nkemdiche is probably a top ten player, based on talent, and is a great 3 tech prospect who could fit in any defensive front that values penetrating DL (i.e., every defensive front). He has some sluggish moments on film, mostly against frustrating double teams, and there's a lot of depth at DL in the draft. Both of these players have talent and tremendous potential, but both have risks and are less than sure things.

 

So my question is, based on what you know, would YOU draft either player for the Colts within the first two rounds this year? Not asking anyone to predict what the Colts will do, but rather, say what you think YOU would do if it were up to you, if your job depended on drafting well, if you had to deal with potential negative consequences, if your staff had to guide and coach these guys. 

[MarquisJ]

Noah in the second would be a steal I'd do it plus Spence has shown he has grown from his past so id give him a shot... absolutely not for Nkem

[BProland85]

I'd only draft spence, but 2nd round or later. 

[pgt_rob]

I hate these damned if you do, damned if you don't. I would feel better about drafting Spence but as soon as you do, he goes out and does something stupid. lol May be best to avoid both, but then both could be like Von Miller for all we know.

[BleedBlu8792]

I'd have zero problems of taking Spence at 18. I think his issues have been overblown.  The guy has taken WEEKLY drug tests for over a year now, which from what I understand was his idea, so it shows to me he's committed to staying that way. However, I would make sure he stays on that program and work that into the contract details. I firmly believe he's the best pass rusher in the draft. I wouldn't wait to see if he's there in the second because he probably won't be there and that team that snags him the second just got excellent value. 

 

Nkemdiche, I wouldn't touch. Too much finger pointing and not enough accountability. Plus, I heard his desire for the game isn't really all that high. The talent is undeniable, but if you don't have passion for the game at this level I wouldn't have any need for his services no matter how good he was/could be. 

[MSColtsFan]

I have watched every Ole Miss game Nkemdiche played, and being a resident of MS have read all the articles and stories.  I would draft him in the second.  Spence I would draft in the first or second.  His addiction to ecstasy was specific, he went to rehab, and as mentioned has tested clean for some time.  Enough time. 

 

To me there is no more likelihood either of these two would blowup their careers with substance abuse than any other 20 year kid who just walked into millions of dollars and were able to do whatever they want, whenever they want.  The difference is Nkemdiche and Spence got caught.  Now I do wonder about Nkemdiche's desire, which is why I wouldn't take him in the first...

[BleedBlu8792]

9 minutes ago, pgt_rob said:

I hate these damned if you do, damned if you don't. I would feel better about drafting Spence but as soon as you do, he goes out and does something stupid. lol May be best to avoid both, but then both could be like Von Miller for all we know.

 

Perfect example being Justin Houston. He was busted for marijuana in college, it dropped his draft stock, and KC picked him up in the 2nd. The guy has been clean since his incident back in college. Granted it's hindsight, but a lot of teams passed on a top-3 pass rusher, and are probably having some regrets. In no way am I saying that Spence is going to be that good, but the talent is there and he eventually might be that good. It's definitely a double-edged sword.

[OffensivelyPC]

If we're talking solely first round I would not take either.  There's enough guys that are not that steep of a drop off in talent without the red flags.  In the 2nd round, I'd absolutely take a chance on either of them.

[ColtsBlueFL]

I'd draft Spence at #18, on if he truly has Graduated Summa Cum Laude from Knucklehead University. (verified by personal interview).

#NeverNkemdiche

 

We all know Colts do not want knuckleheads in first few rounds.  Kirwan certainly knows this too.  Yet Kirwan places on his web site he spoke with many club GM's/F.O. people and they are on board with Spence now.  Then he immediately mocks this round one pick to the Colts.  Is this secret code without spilling the beans?

 

IOW - Yes, No.

[OffensivelyPC]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

So my question is, based on what you know, would YOU draft either player for the Colts within the first two rounds this year? Not asking anyone to predict what the Colts will do, but rather, say what you think YOU would do if it were up to you, if your job depended on drafting well, if you had to deal with potential negative consequences, if your staff had to guide and coach these guys. 

Com'on now.  Can't ask the question and then not cast a vote!

[danlhart87]

No to both.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Com'on now.  Can't ask the question and then not cast a vote!

 

Truth is I don't know. Nkemdiche is a wild card. They say he's weird, but before the window incident he had no issues that I'm aware of. But he's definitely a different kind of cat; check out his Twitter, it's unconventional for sure. I think the Colts have a good foundation with veteran guys who can help someone like him, who have experience and have been around the block, but at the end of the day it's going to be up to him to keep his head on straight and stay motivated. If he does, he'd be special, IMO. His physical traits and ability are outstanding.

 

Spence is a little easier to be comfortable with. But then you look at guys like Aldon Smith, Josh Gordon, Randy Gregory, Dion Jordan, Justin Blackmon, etc. Some guys just can't get it together until it all goes bad. Maybe Spence has already turned that corner. I also wonder if he'd enter the league in the drug program already. I'm not sure how that works, but I think he should. 

 

I think I'd probably take either of them if they were still there in the second round, based on what I know. But I don't really begrudge any team for passing on either of them.

[Carlos Danger]

I would, though im starting to look at both as second round prospects..

[OffensivelyPC]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

Truth is I don't know. Nkemdiche is a wild card. They say he's weird, but before the window incident he had no issues that I'm aware of. But he's definitely a different kind of cat; check out his Twitter, it's unconventional for sure. I think the Colts have a good foundation with veteran guys who can help someone like him, who have experience and have been around the block, but at the end of the day it's going to be up to him to keep his head on straight and stay motivated. If he does, he'd be special, IMO. His physical traits and ability are outstanding.

 

Spence is a little easier to be comfortable with. But then you look at guys like Aldon Smith, Josh Gordon, Randy Gregory, Dion Jordan, Justin Blackmon, etc. Some guys just can't get it together until it all goes bad. Maybe Spence has already turned that corner. I also wonder if he'd enter the league in the drug program already. I'm not sure how that works, but I think he should. 

 

I think I'd probably take either of them if they were still there in the second round, based on what I know. But I don't really begrudge any team for passing on either of them.

Thats why i say no in the first. Knowing what i know about them and "as GM of the Colts" our situation is we cannot afford to lose another 1st round pick, so I will sacrifice a few points on a scouting report if it means i can sleep a little better at night about my choice. 

 

Im not sure anything available online could satisfy my concerns on them, and maybe the interviews would tell me something different. I am with you in that i think our locker room and FO could provide a great support system for him. Where i differ on these prospects is I think Nkemdiche is the easy one. I can deal with weird guys; Troy Polamalu was a weird guy, too, but one of the best safties of the new millenia. Thus far, Nkemdiche has made one mistake and not a "bad" one. Hes doing and saying the right things, which i take with a grain of salt, but other than the incident, i dont know him to have a liars reputation.

 

What concerns me more about Spence is his 2nd arrest. During a time when he is allegedly on his best behavior and "establishing a clean record for the draft" he is (a) out drinking and (b) making a poor decision that ultimately gets him arrested. Not horrible on its own, but bad when he is trying to prove he is clean. Its not something you chance when you are supposed to be sober. He's a kid, i get that, but so are all the other prospects. Just because its a different drug is irrelevant (i.e., for addicts, its not uncommon for them to switch drugs of choice when one becomes scarce or unavailable). Instead of proving he is clean, he has given me reason to question whether he is actually addressing his addictive propensities, despite what he says.

 

That said, if either of them entered the drug program upon entering the league i would be more comfortable drafting either in the first, depending on who else is there. However, I dont think thats logistically possible. Maybe i am wrong, but they cant do that until they are under contract, which means you would have to draft him at his word that he would enter the drug program and get it into the contract during negotiations after the draft. Even then, guys get in the drug program all the time and still fail test (more of a concern for Spence, given what we know, IMO).

 

So for me, anything after the first round on these guys is a justifiable risk reward.

 

 

[stitches]

Based on what I know (!!! very limited knowledge) I'd have more trust in Noah Spence and if what I'm hearing is being confirmed by their personnel investigations, I'd draft him. He seems like a good young man, he seemed genuinely regretful for his mistakes and he's taken serious steps to ensure not only that he doesn't repeat his mistakes but also that his team would feel confident about him and his frame of mind.

 

I do not feel as confident in Nkemediche's resolve to change his ways. In every interview I've seen of him he seems like a knucklehead, who doesn't inspire any confidence, which is a shame because he can be a beast in the league if he gets his head on straight.

[JRnINDY]

Yes to both in the 1st.

Im ready for the Colts D to have the best players. Any millionaire kid can do something stupid, just look at Irsay.

[WarGhost21]

Spence has definitely cleaned up his act in the past year, and he has become a great young man along the way. Nkemediche is definitely overrated for his questioning problems, which he has yet to fix and clean himself up. Spence is by far the better of the two in that regard!

[Nesjan3]

I would draft Spence in the first, best edge rush in the draft and arguably our biggest need. Ecxtasy is not an addictive drug, its something kids sometimes fall in to and do for fun but quickly get over. Nkemdiche has been known to be weirdo and erratic  and really? he smoked some weed and fell out of a window? I know people who are a very successful and smoke it every day. Absolutely no on Nkemdiche absolutely yes on Spence

[Superman]

3 hours ago, Nesjan3 said:

he smoked some weed and fell out of a window? I know people who are a very successful and smoke it every day.

 

It was supposedly synthetic marijuana, which is known to have some serious side effects. It's sometimes laced with other things.

[Nesjan3]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

It was supposedly synthetic marijuana, which is known to have some serious side effects. It's sometimes laced with other things.

goes to show character at least Spence knew what he was taking, and is clearly not been on it since Ohio State

[OHColtfan]

If Spence passes all the required drug, psychological tests like everyone has said, then that makes me feel better. But more importantly I would want to know what kind of support this kid has moving into the NFL so that he doesn't fall into bad habits again.  The Colts atmosphere, with some good vets (Mathis, etc) around him would be good as well.  All things being equal, I would take him at #18 in a heartbeat. In fact I would love him at #18 

 

Nkemdiche I would not touch if I owned all 31 first round picks or any pick for that matter. He looks like a train wreck waiting to happen over and over again. Plenty of good DL to consider in this draft who have their act together than to spend a "high" draft pick on him.

[ColtsBlueFL]

14 hours ago, OffensivelyPC said:

{snipped niced arguments}

 

That said, if either of them entered the drug program upon entering the league i would be more comfortable drafting either in the first, depending on who else is there. However, I dont think thats logistically possible. Maybe i am wrong, but they cant do that until they are under contract, which means you would have to draft him at his word that he would enter the drug program and get it into the contract during negotiations after the draft. Even then, guys get in the drug program all the time and still fail test (more of a concern for Spence, given what we know, IMO).

 

So for me, anything after the first round on these guys is a justifiable risk reward.

 

 

 

Like you mentioned, that's likely not possible unless something else is to occur. Testing for substances of abuse occurs only between April 20 and Aug. 9, though players signed or acquired after Aug. 9 can be tested later than that if they haven't been already. However, rookies and any players not under contract with a team at the end of the prior season are also subject to pre-employment testing. The rookies also get tested at the scouting combine.

 

If either fail an additional administered pre-employment test (since I assume both passed one at the combine) then they enter the league under the Substance Abuse program. Otherwise, They'll only be subject to random PED testing outside of the dates above.  What is less clear, is if a declared for draft rookie or other player gets arrested for an alleged substance abuse violation.  If they cannot do it on that event / evidence alone, I would expect an NFL representative to show up with specimen cups immediately to that players doorstep for a random drug test.  Then they can be placed in the program on a positive result.

[OffensivelyPC]

1 hour ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Like you mentioned, that's likely not possible unless something else is to occur. Testing for substances of abuse occurs only between April 20 and Aug. 9, though players signed or acquired after Aug. 9 can be tested later than that if they haven't been already. However, rookies and any players not under contract with a team at the end of the prior season are also subject to pre-employment testing. The rookies also get tested at the scouting combine.

 

If either fail an additional administered pre-employment test (since I assume both passed one at the combine) then they enter the league under the Substance Abuse program. Otherwise, They'll only be subject to random PED testing outside of the dates above.  What is less clear, is if a declared for draft rookie or other player gets arrested for an alleged substance abuse violation.  If they cannot do it on that event / evidence alone, I would expect an NFL representative to show up with specimen cups immediately to that players doorstep for a random drug test.  Then they can be placed in the program on a positive result.

Yeah I didn't think it was possible.  If they couldn't do it via the NFL, they could always do it independently so that the results are reported to the club I would think.  If that's something that would truly help - in Noah's case, it seems he does better under the supervisory eye, even if he made a 2nd goof with the arrest incident - I don't see why anyone involved, including the NFLPA, would have a problem with it. The team would have to forego any team discipline (perhaps except for releasing the player) and would be under a confidential non-disclosure agreement, but the team shouldn't take issue with that.  At the end of hte day, you want a healthy player making smart decisions about his future and not risking it for things like drugs.  If a guy's going to go out of his way to provide me assurance, I'm going to go out of my way to make sure it stays in house.

[Superman]

9 hours ago, Nesjan3 said:

goes to show character at least Spence knew what he was taking, and is clearly not been on it since Ohio State

 

Not really.

[ColtRider]

 

I'd stay away from both. Too much risk & future uncertainty about the drugs. A number one pick in my eyes, better be clean as the wind-driven snow. That's how valuable that slot is to any franchise. Besides, my thinking of acquiring a formidable defense starts with grabbing a total package ILB/MLB that's a game changer.

 

How do you pass on a potentially GREAT linebacker like Ragland, which in all likelihood, will be staring the Colts in the face with the 18th pick? 

 

If Ragland isn't there, defense at BPA. If not, then Conklin/Billings if BPA.

 

An opinionated side note : This team better get serious creating a very good defense, otherwise, the Colts will not hoist another VL until they do.

[Colts_Fan12]

Id take either one 

[MSColtsFan]

10 hours ago, Superman said:

 

It was supposedly synthetic marijuana, which is known to have some serious side effects. It's sometimes laced with other things.

And testing for it is unreliable (although getting better) as the ingredients are constantly changing, part of the reason it's use is on such a huge upswing.  The other issue I have with Nkemdiche is when he decided to fall apart (almost), which was before the Sugar Bowl, a huge event for an SEC school which hadn't been since Archie Manning played QB...  That kind of disregard for team and responsibilities scares me...  But man can he play when he wants to...

[Superman]

Just now, MSColtsFan said:

And testing for it is unreliable (although getting better) as the ingredients are constantly changing, part of the reason it's use is on such a huge upswing.  The other issue I have with Nkemdiche is when he decided to fall apart (almost), which was before the Sugar Bowl, a huge event for an SEC school which hadn't been since Archie Manning played QB...  That kind of disregard for team and responsibilities scares me...  But man can he play when he wants to...

 

It's not like he went out and did it the night before the game. It was a couple weeks before. And the idea that's being promoted lately is that he's not the only one who was doing it. Like you said, it's becoming more popular due to the troubles with testing it.

 

That also probably means this wasn't the first time he used. It's probably a practice. And that suggests lots of players in college and the pros are doing it. I think there are a lot of hidden skeletons, which is part of the reason I'm hesitant to judge Nkemdiche harshly for his issue.

 

I'm personally more concerned with his eccentricities and questionable motivation than I am with apparent recreational drug use. I obviously disagree with judging him or anyone else as a bad or immoral person because of what he did. The question is whether he'll be reliable, not really whether he's of good character. If the worst thing he's done is get high with friends, then I'm not really worried about his character.

[B~Town]

With so few picks and with so many positions needing a influx of young talent I would say in general no but in the right situation the risk could be worth the reward . Say the colts are on the clock and the value on a trade down isn't there and they are rated well above any players left on the board would be hard to pass on .

[Defjamz26]

I wouldn't take either. Spence has a bunch of red flags both on and off the field and it feels like you have to make a million exceptions for him.

 

Plus I'm not a fan of all that drug program and veteran leadership stuff (as it pertains to character issues). No one should have to babysit grown men.