Superman's 2016 offseason mock (2.0)

[Superman]

Still watching some players, but I wanted to do another mock before free agency (I feel like the Combine came later this year...). 

 

Salary cap in 2016 of $155.27m + $4.95m rollover from 2015 = salary cap of $160.22m. Starting cap position in 2016 (after Andre Johnson release, and using Mathis correctly adjusted with game bonuses from 2015; reconciled with Spotrac and OTC), including all contracts: $130.6m committed, cap space of $29.6m. 

 

Releases: 

Trent Cole (saves $6.125m in 2016)

Bjoern Werner (saves $1.48m in 2016)

Arthur Jones restructured with $1m base salary and per game incentives equaling the remaining $3.5m (saves $3.5m against the cap in 2016, but none of that is counted in my mock)

Total saved: $7.6m in 2016, $6m in 2017 (Andre Johnson savings)

New cap position in 2016: $123m committed, cap space of $37m

 

Free agent retentions:

Trey Williams, ERFA, $525k

Earl Okine, ERFA, $525k

Akeem Davis, ERFA, $600k

Dan Herron, RFA, $1.67m

Jack Doyle, RFA, $1.67m

Dwayne Allen, UFA, four years, $21m, $4m signing bonus, $6.25m guaranteed, 2016 cap hit of $3.5m, 2017 cap hit of $5m

Billy Winn, UFA, not re-signed

Jerrell Freeman, UFA, not re-signed (he's looking for big money)

Coby Fleener, UFA,  not re-signed (Allen seems more inclined to stay, don't want to pay both)

Josh Thomas, UFA, one year, $760k (minimum)

Colt Anderson, UFA, one year, $950k (slightly above minimum)

Lance Louis, UFA, not re-signed

Greg Toler, UFA, not re-signed

Dwight Lowery, UFA, not re-signed (replaceable)

Ahmad Bradshaw, UFA, not re-signed

Charlie Whitehurst, UFA, not re-signed

Matt Hasselback, UFA, not re-signed 

Adam Vinatieri, UFA, one year, $2.5m

Added $12.7m to the 2016 cap; added $5.5m to the 2017 cap (guaranteed for Allen)

New cap position in 2016: $135.7m committed, cap space of $24.5m 

 

Extensions:

Luck, six years total, $138m, (23m/year average), $70m guaranteed (staggered after Year 2, initial guarantee is $53.5m), 2016 cap hit of $15m, 2017 cap hit of $18.5m

Subtracted $1.16m from the 2016 cap; added $18.5m to the 2017 cap, guaranteed

New cap position for 2016: $134.54m committed, cap space of $25.68m

 

Free agent additions:

Casey Hayward, CB -- five years, $40m, $15m guaranteed, 2016 cap hit of $5m, 2017 cap hit of $7m

Bruce Irvin, EDGE -- four years, $33m, $13m guaranteed, 2016 cap hit of $6.5m, 2017 cap hit of $7.75m

Mike Harris, OG/OT -- two years, $6m, 2016 cap hit of $2.25m, 2017 cap hit of $3.75m

Ben Jones, C/OG -- two years, $4m, 2016 cap hit of $1.5m, 2017 cap hit of $2.5m

Brian Quick, WR -- one year, $2m

Added $17.25m to the 2016 cap; added $21m to the 2017 cap ($13m guaranteed)

New cap position for 2016: $151.79m committed, cap space of $8.43m

 

Draft: 

1/18: Shaq Lawson, EDGE, cap hit of $1.8m; pass rusher, will play Rush backer, has power and moves and finishes well in both phases

2/48: Jason Spriggs, OT, cap hit of $900k; plus athlete, especially if groomed as a RT, has room to grow as a run blocker

3/82: Xavien Howard, CB, cap hit of $620k; nice sized boundary corner who plays physical and has footwork to play off-man coverage, with coaching can be a full time starter

4/120-ish: Karl Joseph, S, cap hit of $580k; aggressive safety, mostly SS for the Colts scheme, has range and playmaking ability, hopefully the ACL is ready in 2016

5/160-ish: Daniel Lasco, RB, cap hit of $500k; smallish scat back, quick and shifty and plays fearlessly, had some injuries in 2015, special teams coverage ability

7/235-ish: Dadi Nicolas, EDGE, cap hit of $475k; athletic pass rusher in need of refinement, can play special teams

Added $4.9m to 2016 cap, about $6m to 2017 cap (about $2m guaranteed)

New cap position for 2016: $156.69m committed, cap space of $3.53m

 

That's about 70 players, and that cap number includes all contracts, not just the top 51. Would probably break camp with around $10m in cap space. I've also committed about $135m to the 2017 cap, against a cap that's expected to be at least $165m, so there's still flexibility moving forward.

 

I still feel like this roster is ready without rookie help, but anyone who performs well can earn playing time. I'm not cutting Jackson or Jones like I always planned. I felt like I needed depth at DL and since I don't think Freeman is staying, I'm keeping Jackson. Sio Moore and Nate Irving need to step up.

[loudnproudcolt]

I love the draft picks, although it would not be my first round picks, but I still like them. Would love to get Joseph or Howard in the third round. I think Howard will go in the second though. He had a good combine.

 

My only nitpick is I would prefer to front load more of Luck's contract, so as the cap goes up, he counts less towards it. We will have the cap space this year to do it, especially since I believe we will sign a few quality FA's, but not quantity at high prices which has been the case the last few years. Otherwise, really a good draft and thoughts for this early. Hard to believe FA really begins Monday, and agents are already talking to clubs as of about 1 hour ago.

[COLTS449]

Why do you think Karl Joseph will fall that far Supe? I'd be very concerned with the O-Line in this scenario. What's your thoughts on that? Do you think Mike Harris could improve our line that much? I personally think we have to bring in a major addition at Guard.

[COLTS449]

56 minutes ago, loudnproudcolt said:

I love the draft picks, although it would not be my first round picks, but I still like them. Would love to get Joseph or Howard in the third round. I think Howard will go in the second though. He had a good combine.

 

My only nitpick is I would prefer to front load more of Luck's contract, so as the cap goes up, he counts less towards it. We will have the cap space this year to do it, especially since I believe we will sign a few quality FA's, but not quantity at high prices which has been the case the last few years. Otherwise, really a good draft and thoughts for this early. Hard to believe FA really begins Monday, and agents are already talking to clubs as of about 1 hour ago.

 

Its better to not front load it IMO. The cap's going to keep going up 10 million or so every year for a while.

[akcolt]

2 hours ago, COLTS449 said:

Why do you think Karl Joseph will fall that far Supe? I'd be very concerned with the O-Line in this scenario. What's your thoughts on that? Do you think Mike Harris could improve our line that much? I personally think we have to bring in a major addition at Guard.

OL will be fine. I think a NFL center would make a huge difference. Mr. Jones fills that role. Harris helps. The OL isn't as bad as most think if we get a real C.

 

I could see Joseph falling too. I'm not sure if Supe and I are on the same page. I see him falling because he's a bit undersized. He has a injury history and the style he plays could I'm sure some feel will inevitably lead to more injuries. He's a guy I've had my eye on as a player who could fall. Russell the CB from ND is another. I would keep an eye out for him. The CB class is strong. He had the broken leg. I really like him. I think he would make a good #2CB. I  would give him a look at FS. I think he could be special there.

 

I really like Billings at 18 but if Lawson is there I think we take him . I don't see Spriggs lasting to our pick in the 2nd. I think we get help at NT there. Johnson PSU or Clark. I love Howard and the rest of the draft. I'm not a fan of Nicolas but 7th round who cares. I would take an OT. That seems to be Grigs thing. Debron S Utah or the kid from the Blue Hens.

 

I like the FA's although not sure we spend that much. I love Jones Harris and Quick. I think we might go cheaper at CB. I don't see Irvin coming here. I hear he wants to go to ATL. 

 

I am glad to see someone at least considered keeping DQ. I would try to bring Lowery back too.

 

This is one of the better mocks I've seen. The The 

[Defjamz26]

6 hours ago, COLTS449 said:

Why do you think Karl Joseph will fall that far Supe? I'd be very concerned with the O-Line in this scenario. What's your thoughts on that? Do you think Mike Harris could improve our line that much? I personally think we have to bring in a major addition at Guard.

I've run a few different Mock's on Fanspeak using different big boards and I've seen him fall as far. I'd take him in the 3rd though. It's not that crazy.

 

Love the mock btw Superman. Off-season looks good too.

[SDakColts]

Very good offseason and that draft class would be fantastic.

[MarquisJ]

love everything but my only problem is you have us picking up two OL in FA so with our second pick we go oline again? I rather add to the defense w/ that second pick if that's what r FA looks like

[throwing BBZ]

So many things that are off target and ain`t happening. lol
Fun stuff to think about though.

[JRnINDY]

Very well thought out and I would be happy with it. Let's face it, we'll never get everyone we want but some good players will fall to us.

[BleedBlu8792]

36 minutes ago, throwing BBZ said:

So many things that are off target and ain`t happening. lol
Fun stuff to think about though.

Such as.....?

 

 

[DougDew]

If you're not resigning Freeman, signing a ILB, or drafting a ILB,.....who is going to play ILB?

[Defjamz26]

16 minutes ago, DougDew said:

If you're not resigning Freeman, signing a ILB, or drafting a ILB,.....who is going to play ILB?

I assume DQ and Sio Moore. Add a replacement for DQ in next year's draft.

[Carlos Danger]

This would be an awesome off-season.

 

I'd be thrilled if we got Spriggs in the 2nd... I really think the O-Line would be strong if this played out... The only real question would be who plays where on the right side. Good, Reitz, Spriggs, Thornton, and Harris battling for two spots is a good thing.

 

I'll take Irvin and Mathis as edge rushers  going into next season with no complaints. Lawson sends like the kind of player that can produce as a rookie, too..

 

Hayward isn't my favorite FA corner, but he might be the best value and I think he will be fine on the outside... I also think he's the most likely candidate to be available. There will be other teams willing to throw huge money at Jenkins and Smith. 

 

I don't know where guys will go in FA and the draft, but if Grigson pulled off this off-season, I think he'd be up for another GMOTY award. 

 

 

[ColtsBlueFL]

1 hour ago, DougDew said:

If you're not resigning Freeman, signing a ILB, or drafting a ILB,.....who is going to play ILB?

 

If no decent pass rusher like Lawson is available at 18, I'd take Reggie Ragland there.  He's a CJ Mosley type player, and a 100 tackles a year for a decade kind of guy.  We could use that in our D.  But somehow do not think he will slide to us either.  Somehow, i think we might land Floyd...

[BOTT]

2 hours ago, MarquisJ said:

love everything but my only problem is you have us picking up two OL in FA so with our second pick we go oline again? I rather add to the defense w/ that second pick if that's what r FA looks like

[Traines]

11 hours ago, Superman said:

Free agent additions:

Casey Hayward, CB -- five years, $40m, $15m guaranteed, 2016 cap hit of $5m, 2017 cap hit of $7m

Bruce Irvin, EDGE -- four years, $33m, $13m guaranteed, 2016 cap hit of $6.5m, 2017 cap hit of $7.75m

Mike Harris, OG/OT -- two years, $6m, 2016 cap hit of $2.25m, 2017 cap hit of $3.75m

Ben Jones, C/OG -- two years, $4m, 2016 cap hit of $1.5m, 2017 cap hit of $2.5m

 

 

Draft: 

1/18: Shaq Lawson, EDGE, cap hit of $1.8m; pass rusher, will play Rush backer, has power and moves and finishes well in both phases

2/48: Jason Spriggs, OT, cap hit of $900k; plus athlete, especially if groomed as a RT, has room to grow as a run blocker

3/82: Xavien Howard, CB, cap hit of $620k; nice sized boundary corner who plays physical and has footwork to play off-man coverage, with coaching can be a full time starter

4/120-ish: Karl Joseph, S, cap hit of $580k; aggressive safety, mostly SS for the Colts scheme, has range and playmaking ability, hopefully the ACL is ready in 2016

 

A big fan of everything you have, and really appreciate the breakdown with the numbers and everything.  I wish people would use this as a template moving forward, I think it would make everyone's mocks more enjoyable.

 

I do have a quick question, it has been asked in a few different threads already, but I haven't noticed you comment yet; how confident are you that Hayward can play outside?  I assume you're reasonably confident since we're signing him, but from what I read there is no consensus...I have not watched any film, so I really don't have much of an opinion, just curious on your thoughts....however, I did like him coming out of college and would like to see us bring in a CB2 in Free Agency.  Bonus question; what are your thoughts on Sean Smith?

 

Thanks for putting Mike Harris on my radar, I really like that addition after reading up on him.  I also like getting Jones from the Texans, he should have no problem coming in and starting as well.  Their versatility is a huge plus, and I am a big fan of strengthening these positions through FA rather than early draft picks.  I am curious as to why you only did a 2 year deal for each of them though.

 

Irvin would be a major upgrade for us, but I could see him getting some big money from someone...I think $8-9mil is about right though.

 

As for the draft, I really like Lawson for us at 18.  A nice OL like Spriggs in the 2nd would be awesome...and with what we would have in this scenario we could allow him time to develop as many say he needs to...also not against some DL guys that might be available here!  I like the Howard pick, would like to see us snag some CB talent early on in the draft (as well as getting a CB2 in FA).  Now, for my favorite pick and favorite player in the draft...Karl Joseph!  It seems like I am in the minority thinking he'll have a hard time making it out of the 2nd, but I'm no expert.  I think his ability to play the ball is underrated (man cover ability and ball skills), and he can flat light it up all over the field...he's just a play-maker...and reading up on him there seems to be nothing but positives about his character (great leader, great attitude, etc.).  I know he is coming off of the ACL injury (and he's "undersized"), but IMO he's not only the best Safety prospect (and most well-rounded), he's one of the best players in the draft.  I know I will get some strong disagreements from many, but I'm serious...I hope people have given him a real look, it's worth the time.  Here is a video of him with Deion at the Combine if you want to see a recent interview with him (nothing exciting, just a quick interview from the Combine); http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/0ap3000000639974/Joseph-I-think-I-m-the-best-football-player-in-this-draft 

 

Sorry to get off base there, I just get excited about the thought of him and Geathers playing together.  Thanks again for the great work!

[OffensivelyPC]

Like what you did in the draft, though I think Shaq doesn't make it to 18. Perhaps Springs doesn't make it to us either, but I wouldn't call him a steal at 2.17. Also a fan of Karl Joseph.

 

I do wish you had addressed the interior OL differently. But we aren't going to be able to solidify everything in just one offseason. 

[Superman]

13 hours ago, loudnproudcolt said:

I love the draft picks, although it would not be my first round picks, but I still like them. Would love to get Joseph or Howard in the third round. I think Howard will go in the second though. He had a good combine.

 

My only nitpick is I would prefer to front load more of Luck's contract, so as the cap goes up, he counts less towards it. We will have the cap space this year to do it, especially since I believe we will sign a few quality FA's, but not quantity at high prices which has been the case the last few years. Otherwise, really a good draft and thoughts for this early. Hard to believe FA really begins Monday, and agents are already talking to clubs as of about 1 hour ago.

 

I've been sticking to the basic structure of the Cam Newton contract for Luck. I didn't share all the details year by year, but it's pretty balanced. It does have yearly increases so that it grows with the cap, and it provides for the future flexibility that Irsay said he wants it to have. Grigson's Colts have generally done contracts with smaller signing bonuses and bigger base salaries to protect the team, but I don't think that will be a consideration with Luck's deal. I think the guaranteed money might possibly go into Year 4, as a matter of fact, so I wouldn't be surprised if it has a big signing bonus and even a Year 2 option bonus. 

[Superman]

12 hours ago, COLTS449 said:

Why do you think Karl Joseph will fall that far Supe? I'd be very concerned with the O-Line in this scenario. What's your thoughts on that? Do you think Mike Harris could improve our line that much? I personally think we have to bring in a major addition at Guard.

 

On Joseph, just a consensus around the Internet that between his size and his injury, he's going to be a 4th rounder, even though he's probably a 2nd round talent. I'll take that, even if he doesn't play in 2016. I could be wrong.

 

I think the line in fine in this scenario. Harris is a starter at either guard spot, likely RG, and he's my 'major addition.' That makes Thornton depth, and Holmes and Jones battle for C. Spriggs is depth at either tackle spot, along with Good, and Harris can move out to either tackle spot if necessary. I actually really like this line. JMO.

[Superman]

9 hours ago, akcolt said:

not sure we spend that much

 

We probably don't. 

 

Quote

I am glad to see someone at least considered keeping DQ

 

Not my first choice, honestly, but I think Freeman is gone, and I didn't see a reasonable path to rebuilding the entire ILB corps.

[Superman]

3 hours ago, throwing BBZ said:

So many things that are off target and ain`t happening. lol
Fun stuff to think about though.

 

You outkicked your coverage again. This is a mock, not a prediction.

[Superman]

2 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

I assume DQ and Sio Moore. Add a replacement for DQ in next year's draft.

 

And Nate Irving.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, Traines said:

I do have a quick question, it has been asked in a few different threads already, but I haven't noticed you comment yet; how confident are you that Hayward can play outside?  I assume you're reasonably confident since we're signing him, but from what I read there is no consensus...I have not watched any film, so I really don't have much of an opinion, just curious on your thoughts....however, I did like him coming out of college and would like to see us bring in a CB2 in Free Agency.  Bonus question; what are your thoughts on Sean Smith?

 

Thanks for putting Mike Harris on my radar, I really like that addition after reading up on him.  I also like getting Jones from the Texans, he should have no problem coming in and starting as well.  Their versatility is a huge plus, and I am a big fan of strengthening these positions through FA rather than early draft picks.  I am curious as to why you only did a 2 year deal for each of them though.

 

I think Hayward is best inside, but he's more than capable outside. I think he and Davis could work in tandem to play more matchup coverage. I also think Xavien Howard is a potential starter, as long as he's not left on an island too often. He's big and physical and uses the boundary well, and he closes well in off man coverage. I see him as a good Greg Toler, potentially.

 

On the OL, I think we should have plenty of choices at every position. I thought we were perilously thin last year, especially at tackle, and by the end of the year we had guys playing everywhere, including Good starting. As for Harris, a few days ago the Vikings offered him two years, $3.5m. He wants to stay, but doesn't plan on making a decision before he can talk to other teams, so I'm blowing them out of the water. I'd be willing to go three years without changing the basic team friendly structure. Jones seems like a one year deal kind of guy.

[Superman]

56 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

But we aren't going to be able to solidify everything in just one offseason. 

 

That's very true.

 

But on the OL, I can understand not necessarily liking the players. But I'm adding a starter at guard (I think Mike Harris is pretty good), a potential starter at tackle in the draft, and a competitive option at center/guard. I think I've done a lot at interior OL.

 

Part of that is probably because I think Holmes is a really good fit for a ZBS.

[COLTS449]

24 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

On Joseph, just a consensus around the Internet that between his size and his injury, he's going to be a 4th rounder, even though he's probably a 2nd round talent. I'll take that, even if he doesn't play in 2016. I could be wrong.

 

I think the line in fine in this scenario. Harris is a starter at either guard spot, likely RG, and he's my 'major addition.' That makes Thornton depth, and Holmes and Jones battle for C. Spriggs is depth at either tackle spot, along with Good, and Harris can move out to either tackle spot if necessary. I actually really like this line. JMO.

 

I got ya. I done some research or Harris, and I didn't realize how good a season he had this year. But Joseph should be ready by the start of the season wouldn't you think?

[Superman]

Just now, COLTS449 said:

 

I got ya. I done some research or Harris, and I didn't realize how good a season he had this year. But Joseph should be ready by the start of the season wouldn't you think?

 

I'm conservative with ACLs. I automatically say 12 months from injury before he can play, and he got hurt in October. That's with no major setbacks. Anything before that is a plus.

[Superman]

2 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

If no decent pass rusher like Lawson is available at 18, I'd take Reggie Ragland there.  He's a CJ Mosley type player, and a 100 tackles a year for a decade kind of guy.  We could use that in our D.  But somehow do not think he will slide to us either.  Somehow, i think we might land Floyd...

 

You probably don't have to look very long to see that I'm not a fan of Reggie Ragland. I hope he goes top 15, that way we can't draft him, and it pushes someone better down to us.

[OffensivelyPC]

28 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

That's very true.

 

But on the OL, I can understand not necessarily liking the players. But I'm adding a starter at guard (I think Mike Harris is pretty good), a potential starter at tackle in the draft, and a competitive option at center/guard. I think I've done a lot at interior OL.

 

Part of that is probably because I think Holmes is a really good fit for a ZBS.

Oh, I didn't mean that you failed to address it or that you did a bang up job addressing C and OG. I think it's fine given your other choices. Mike Harris is alright, though I do think the $3 million per is a bit low given the Vikings reportedly offered more than that. But to me, I don't really see a long term solution in Jones and Harris is just ok to me. Like I said, cant address it all in one offseason. It's probably at least a short-term improvement until we can plug in a more long-term solution.

[Superman]

1 minute ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Oh, I didn't mean that you failed to address it or that you did a bang up job addressing C and OG. I think it's fine given your other choices. Mike Harris is alright, though I do think the $3 million per is a bit low given the Vikings reportedly offered more than that. But to me, I don't really see a long term solution in Jones and Harris is just ok to me. Like I said, cant address it all in one offseason. It's probably at least a short-term improvement until we can plug in a more long-term solution.

 

Fair enough. 

 

Vikings offered Harris $3.5m for two years, but he also said he wants to stay in Minnesota. That's why I went to $6m. http://www.twincities.com/2016/03/03/vikings-guard-mike-harris-hoping-for-new-contract-soon/

[Defjamz26]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

On Joseph, just a consensus around the Internet that between his size and his injury, he's going to be a 4th rounder, even though he's probably a 2nd round talent. I'll take that, even if he doesn't play in 2016. I could be wrong.

 

I think the line in fine in this scenario. Harris is a starter at either guard spot, likely RG, and he's my 'major addition.' That makes Thornton depth, and Holmes and Jones battle for C. Spriggs is depth at either tackle spot, along with Good, and Harris can move out to either tackle spot if necessary. I actually really like this line. JMO.

 

Its a shame because Joseph is really good. His ball skills are up there with Hargreaves and Ramsey. Would be a steal if he fell to us.

[COLTS449]

3 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

If no decent pass rusher like Lawson is available at 18, I'd take Reggie Ragland there.  He's a CJ Mosley type player, and a 100 tackles a year for a decade kind of guy.  We could use that in our D.  But somehow do not think he will slide to us either.  Somehow, i think we might land Floyd...

 

Man. No disrespect. But Reggie Ragland is not a CJ Mosley type player. Ragland's a big 2 down thumper. Good against the run and makes a ton of tackles. Mosley's one of the best ILB's in the NFL and an all around LB as well. He can cover, stop the run, get a few sacks when asked to blitz, and he gets 100 plus tackles too. That's the kind of guy we need.

[DougDew]

4 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

I assume DQ and Sio Moore. Add a replacement for DQ in next year's draft.

I assume the coaches will see more in Moore than they did last year.

[OffensivelyPC]

22 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

Fair enough. 

 

Vikings offered Harris $3.5m for two years, but he also said he wants to stay in Minnesota. That's why I went to $6m. http://www.twincities.com/2016/03/03/vikings-guard-mike-harris-hoping-for-new-contract-soon/

Oh I must've read it wrong. Thought it,was 3.5 per, not total.

[gacker65]

If worried about Joseph's ACL, could look at Killebrew or Thompson for a safety.

[ColtsBlueFL]

9 hours ago, Superman said:

 

You probably don't have to look very long to see that I'm not a fan of Reggie Ragland. I hope he goes top 15, that way we can't draft him, and it pushes someone better down to us.

 

OK, I'm not a fan of Sio and Nate.  Can't beat out Freeman and D'Q at ILB...

And none of those 4 are a CJ Mosley type ILB...  at least... none have stepped up to prove so at this point...

[BluHorzhu]

This was a really cool, in-depth analysis of our current position, needs, and options for the future.  Much thanks for the information as a whole.  Can't really disagree with much, as Superman is a true student of the game and it's all rhetorical anyway.  I don't have the finger on the pulse like some of you guys do here, but I love the draft and do the whole Fanspeak OTC Premium drafts for fun.  Every year, we do a draft pool here in Vegas to guess the most 1st round picks and I've won it 3 years running.  I don't even watch college FB.  I simply love the draft and the effect that rookies can have on the future of a franchise.

 

Getting rid of "Stonehands" Fleener and keeping "IR" Allen is a tough call but probably the right one despite the body of work between Luck and Coby from Stanford on.  I like the idea of keeping Jack Doyle, who always comes through when you need him.  Not sure what Casey Heyward will bring to the table, but the arguments that Greg Toler only gets smoked because of a lack of pass rush has to be falling on deaf ears by now, especially considering his salary.  Of everyone on the roster, I'll miss Toler the least.  I think it's a fair assessment to say Jerrell Freeman's price tag will be too high to match his actual production.  Small beans but I like the retention of Colt Anderson. 

 

As far as the draft, I can't speculate on trades but I'm all for a trade down at 18.  We haven't had a top 20 pick in a while and it would be great to catch a falling star (like Lawson).  It's slated to be one of the deepest drafts ever and I'd love to see us trade right out of the 1st or 2nd in order to stockpile more picks.  Looks like we're married to Grigson for another era and if he's really the scouting guru he purports to be then additional picks provide an opportunity to show it.  The Seahawks won a SB by guessing right a lot. 

 

I really do like Lawson or Emmanuel Ogbah, Nick Martin, Cody Whitehair, and even Oklahoma's Erik Striker as impact players in any of the first few rounds.  Too many to mention, but I really like those guys.

 

Obviously there's a reciprocal relationship between free agency and the draft.  I just hope we get the puzzle of the O-line solved.  Luck spent more time on his back than a quadriplegic prostitute last year and there's no way the team can risk that again.  It was hard to watch.

 

Thanks again for the big picture.  It was a good read.

 

 

 

 

[Defjamz26]

On March 5, 2016 at 3:24 PM, Superman said:

 

I think Hayward is best inside, but he's more than capable outside. I think he and Davis could work in tandem to play more matchup coverage. I also think Xavien Howard is a potential starter, as long as he's not left on an island too often. He's big and physical and uses the boundary well, and he closes well in off man coverage. I see him as a good Greg Toler, potentially.

 

On the OL, I think we should have plenty of choices at every position. I thought we were perilously thin last year, especially at tackle, and by the end of the year we had guys playing everywhere, including Good starting. As for Harris, a few days ago the Vikings offered him two years, $3.5m. He wants to stay, but doesn't plan on making a decision before he can talk to other teams, so I'm blowing them out of the water. I'd be willing to go three years without changing the basic team friendly structure. Jones seems like a one year deal kind of guy.

If you think Howard can start outside and Heyward inside, what are your plans for Smith? We drafted him pretty high to just be a rotational guy.

[Superman]

1 hour ago, Defjamz26 said:

If you think Howard can start outside and Heyward inside, what are your plans for Smith? We drafted him pretty high to just be a rotational guy.

 

Competition. Someone gets hurt all the time. He'd be in the mix just like Howard. I wouldn't be giving Howard the job.

[akcolt]

1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

Competition. Someone gets hurt all the time. He'd be in the mix just like Howard. I wouldn't be giving Howard the job.

It's also the final yr for Butler. Ideally next year we have Davis and Howard on the outside with Smith in the slot.  I'm not sure I wouldsign a big FA CB. I think you are right on what Heyward's  going to get. I just don't know if I'd give a guy that much money who  is really best as a slot CB. 

 

I might look for a band aid maybe Powers. Or a vet CB on a short deal. I might roll the dice on Claiborne. A guy like Tracy Porter OT go younger Sterling Moore can play inside or out. He could move to S as well. Can any of them play worse than Toler did last year? I would be careful dropping a ton at CB. 

 

I really hope we take a CB in the first 2 days. It's a deep class with a handful of guys who can play press with very high ceilings. Howard is one of the guys I'd love to get. A first 2 days of Billings Correra and Howard would be my dream. 

 

Correra is more a need pick. He looks like one of the best solutions. I'd rather take him later but with the lack of talent the 2nd is where we'd have to grab him that could be too late. 

 

We have to do something I don't see a lot of help in FA or the draft. I am not big on Floyd at all. I wouldn't touch him or Spence.  I like Jenkins in the 3rd but like Lawson think his real home is on the other side. Calhoun is an option in the 2nd too. Cowser is interesting maybe the 3rd? I'm not sure where he goes.  S Utah has a few players I like. Sims their CB end of day 3 too. I like Ngakoue from Maryland. I think he's a day 3 guy who will be gone in the 3rd. Ogbah is interesting not sure I'd feel good at 18. Who are you looking at as the best edge rushers for us???

 

I am not a big fan of Lawson as an edge rusher but if he's there at 18 I'm pretty sure we take him. I think he could be great on the other side or in a 4-3. I would rather him than Spence or Floyd. I'm not high on either of those two. No way a take off the field problems the first 2 days

 

If we get Jones or Wiz and Harris or another FA RG the OL will be in good shape. They seem to be really high on Good. I hope they are right.  I think he gets every opportniyg to win RT. That would give us Reitz and Thorton as the first two off the bench. That would be pretty solid. 

 

We have 3 young guys I don't know too much about. Heenan is the oldest at 26 and the one I am most intersted in. I think he is supposed to be able to play C too. If he can really play at the NFL level that's a huge bonus. Then O'Brien and Burton.   

 

I think our OL troubles over a bit exaggeratied. A NFL caliber C would make a big difference. Thorton has the tools but we can't count on him to get it together any longer. The only place we don't have talent is C. Which should be the easiest and cheapest fix. My sister is tougher than Holmes.

 

If we can't get one of the young C in FA. I would sign a vet and look at the draft. No way I take Kelly in the top 50. I would look at Glasgow, Boehm, Allen or Westerman. I would be hesitant to run a rookie out week 1. Holmes has only made week 1 healthy once in his career. I'd sign a vet send our current C's packing. 

 

You didn't take a single DL in a draft full of DL. Why not? I think we could really make the DL a strengtb of the team in this draft

 

I would at least get stronger in the middle. I love Billings potential but we could find Parry's replacement or at least  some help in almost any round. If not Billings I like Johnson PSU or Clark. A late round guy OJ Mau from Gardner Webb is one of the best NT in the draft IMO. Parry's a nice find in the 5th but he's not who I'd want as my number 1 NT.

 

It would not hurt to add a pass rusher to the DL. We have to find a way to get more pressure. The edge class is weak. This could be a way to hurry the QB up. 

 

There are a couple of OT for Grig's to take in the 7th that seems to be his thing. Debrod E. Washington or Curtis Delaware. I might be tempted to switch it up and go Booker Misssouri St. C/G.