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Colts will rely on the draft instead of being big free-agent spenders


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1 hour ago, krunk said:

I went back and watched Simmons. Pretty nice player and I think you could add even more muscle to that frame. Seemed to be a more than willing tackler and a wrap up tackler at that. Not bad in coverage either. Kinda reminds me of Deion Grant that used to play for Carolina. Has a little bit of Berry in there too.

Thanks for taking the time to look him up and watch some film on him. Nice comparisons by the way.

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22 hours ago, TheRustonRifle#7 said:

Of the two I believe Osemele is more realistic....though I can see him going after Tackle money and don't blame him? My guess is that he won't come cheap but definitely cheaper than Miller. Here is a nice breakdown of available FA Offensive Lineman and projected contracts via Overthecap.com:

http://overthecap.com/2016-nfl-free-agency-offensive-line-overview/

Now with the expected raising of the Salary Cap these numbers will possibly be too low? 

 

 I also agree with your point of taking a pass rusher early and developing other young talent in that area.

Boone, Allen, Wisniewski are all affordable talent in the middle which is where we need help the most. But, Osemle is a pro bowl talent who is just coming into his prime and if he could be signed for that 5 for 40 type of deal then I hope we can make a run at him becuase he would make a difference. The other 3 would definitely be an upgrade in my opinion but Osemele is probably the creme of the crop for OL free agents this year.

 

In my opinion, the Colts need to cut some fat and save some $ on the cap and if they are really serious about protecting Andrew Luck they will invest in players like Osemele who can make an immediate impact.

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53 minutes ago, theanarchist said:

 

54 minutes ago, theanarchist said:

 

55 minutes ago, theanarchist said:

Boone, Allen, Wisniewski are all affordable talent in the middle which is where we need help the most. But, Osemle is a pro bowl talent who is just coming into his prime and if he could be signed for that 5 for 40 type of deal then I hope we can make a run at him becuase he would make a difference. The other 3 would definitely be an upgrade in my opinion but Osemele is probably the creme of the crop for OL free agents this year.

 

In my opinion, the Colts need to cut some fat and save some $ on the cap and if they are really serious about protecting Andrew Luck they will invest in players like Osemele who can make an immediate impact.

I agree about the Osemele deal if that is what he would be asking? Too good to not kick the tires at that price, though I think they are under valuing his market as they are calling him a Guard? He can play both Tackle and Guard and if his agent doesn't go for Tackle money....he needs to get another one, lol!

 

 

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1 hour ago, theanarchist said:

Boone, Allen, Wisniewski are all affordable talent in the middle which is where we need help the most. But, Osemle is a pro bowl talent who is just coming into his prime and if he could be signed for that 5 for 40 type of deal then I hope we can make a run at him becuase he would make a difference. The other 3 would definitely be an upgrade in my opinion but Osemele is probably the creme of the crop for OL free agents this year.

 

In my opinion, the Colts need to cut some fat and save some $ on the cap and if they are really serious about protecting Andrew Luck they will invest in players like Osemele who can make an immediate impact.

The Ravens let good satellite players go....like author jones, Paul Kruger, Cordy Redding, etc.....I can't recall them letting a young stud like Osemele walk.

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15 minutes ago, BOTT said:

The Ravens let good satellite players go....like author jones, Paul Kruger, Cordy Redding, etc.....I can't recall them letting a young stud like Osemele walk.

I expect they will try to re-sign him for sure but they are pretty tight against the cap and I don't know if they have the room to keep him. They have a few key players they will need to deal with

 

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10 hours ago, Defjamz26 said:

I also think this means to expect more first year starters as well. 

 

If if you want to get younger you're going to have to have more young starters as well.

Good point.  It's easy to overlook that a component of the 2012 class having such impact is that the roster required them to play.

 

Coaches don't naturally prefer rookies.  Who can blame them.  Sometimes a GM simply has to shape the roster so their isn't another option...which comes with proper cap management and roster balance.

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12 minutes ago, ztboiler said:

Good point.  It's easy to overlook that a component of the 2012 class having such impact is that the roster required them to play.

 

Coaches don't naturally prefer rookies.  Who can blame them.  Sometimes a GM simply has to shape the roster so their isn't another option...which comes with proper cap management and roster balance.

When you get behind the ball in drafting that's what happens. You end up having to keep signing or paying for FAs to play (like we've done with the safety position). So now you're going to have to start rookies.

 

Like at ILB. Freeman and Jackson won't both stay so it's very likely that you'll see a rookie starting there in 2016. The same thing might be true about the SAM spot, or if we get an impact defensive lineman in the first two rounds. A rookie could start over Parry or Langford.

 

But by 2017, the Colts defense will be comprised mostly of rookies, 2nd, and third years players. The oldest person on defense will probably be Vontae.

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1 hour ago, Defjamz26 said:

But by 2017, the Colts defense will be comprised mostly of rookies, 2nd, and third years players. The oldest person on defense will probably be Vontae.

Good! Colts defense had 7 of 10 starters age 30 or older (and Freeman was 29). That number needs to be reversed. 

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On February 5, 2016 at 10:16 PM, krunk said:

 

I was responding to the post right above mine.  Seemed like the guy was trying to insinuate that Irsay shouldn't be so focused on defense, but more on the offensive line.  My reply was "Did Irsay say he wasn't drafting Oline?"  No he never said that.  I'm sure Irsay is well aware of that issue too.

I'm sorry I quoted the wrong person. I agree...if anything our OL is just as big a priority then replenishing the defense. We certainly have more needs on defense with many more aging vets and free agents so that will be a priority but I do expect to see at least 1 new starter on the OL.

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15 hours ago, BOTT said:

The Ravens let good satellite players go....like author jones, Paul Kruger, Cordy Redding, etc.....I can't recall them letting a young stud like Osemele walk.

Ben Grubbs maybe? He was pretty good with Baltimore and got a big deal from the Saints if I recall. It just seems like they always let guys test the market and often they price themselves out.

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16 hours ago, dgambill said:

I'm sorry I quoted the wrong person. I agree...if anything our OL is just as big a priority then replenishing the defense. We certainly have more needs on defense with many more aging vets and free agents so that will be a priority but I do expect to see at least 1 new starter on the OL.

There has to be at least 1 new starter on the OL.We do not currently have a NFL caliber C on our roster. That is our biggest need on O. Until we stabilize that position the OL is a mess. I'd like to see us sign 2 FA OL a FA CB at least. Then focus on D in the draft. 

 

I'd want to see us bring in Wisenewski or Davis at C. Both are about 26 years old and either would be a huge upgrade. How we went into the season with Holmes being handed the starting job is ridiculous. He can't stsy healthy and he sucks. 

 

Grigs almost lost his job. I think he makes one splash signing and gets Mack. I'm fine with that would prefer younger less expensive. I think Mack is who we sign. Which will limit our FA activity but C has to be fixed for sure. 

 

Then he needs to get Allen who is 26 from KC too. I have been pushing this kid for months. He has started at both G spots and RT. He had the RT job won in camp before being injured then slide in at RG when he was healthy. He has a mean streak which we really need. it seemed like he was in Reed's doghouse for a minute and KC has so players to sign. We can get him.

 

We get a C I think it's Mack. The line is already 10x better. Then add Allen. He could win the RT job that would give Thorton one more shot to get it right with a competent C. He has the tools to do the job. If he can't then Allen to RG and Reitz back to RT. Allen gives us options on the right side. Maybe Good can win RT. I don't see it but they are high on him. 

 

Then bring on the D in the draft. I

would be happy if all 6 picks went to that side. We sign those two OL resign Doyle and Fleener the O is young and set. We can add a cheap vet RB to help Gore until that RB class next year. 

 

It would be nice to get a CB in FA too. We have to get an edge rusher in this draft. There's nothing in FA. Miller is staying in Denver and Irvin in Seattle or ATL 

 

We could use help on DL especially with Anderson's injury. ILB is interesting. Who comes back? What will we do with Sio? Will Irving be right a yr removed from the knee injury? 

 

The back end could get younger. I'd love to get the S from Boise St. Thompson. He is a turnover machine. We would have to grab him in the 2nd I think.

 

It feels like people are sleeping on Russell CB from ND after being injured and missing Stanford and the OSU games. He is one of the better press CB in the draft IMO. Can't teach speed or the knack for a big play he has both. 

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On 2/4/2016 at 4:07 PM, GoColts8818 said:

If Smith falls because of his injury I hope the Colts grab him.  While he might not help right away they would get a top five talent and he would be able to step on for Mathis the following year.

 

Well, you would get a top 5 talent if he was totally healthy at pick #18, and no play/production for a full year. Seeing our other Round 1 picks went recently, this is just another way to potentially misuse it once more.  He will be on Non Football injury, get paid, and learn the system while he rehabs.  No production for the pick, nor any guarantees in the future.

 

Last time we did something like this, was on a round two talent in Josh Chapman, but only spent a 5th rounder on him.  He never recovered from his surgery enough to be the consistent two down, 2 gap 0 technique lane stuffing Nose Tackle we needed.  he never made it to the 53 man roster last year on last cuts. Clowney hasn't recovered well nor been consistent over the last two years for the Texans.  It's a big crap shoot.  Jax Jags lost Dante Fowler in training camp.  They gave him max contract, fully guaranteed with no offset language!! $23.5 million guaranteed!  Ultimate crap shoot. After, Werner, TRich, and Dorsett, I feel we just can't afford to misfire too many times more in a round 1 crap shoot.  I'm leaning that a guy missing the season and being placed on non football injury while rehabbing an ACL-MCL surgery might fall into that category for me.

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10 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

Well, you would get a top 5 talent if he was totally healthy at pick #18, and no play/production for a full year. Seeing our other Round 1 picks went recently, this is just another way to potentially misuse it once more.  He will be on Non Football injury, get paid, and learn the system while he rehabs.  No production for the pick, nor any guarantees in the future.

 

Last time we did something like this, was on a round two talent in Josh Chapman, but only spent a 5th rounder on him.  He never recovered from his surgery enough to be the consistent two down, 2 gap 0 technique lane stuffing Nose Tackle we needed.  he never made it to the 53 man roster last year on last cuts. Clowney hasn't recovered well nor been consistent over the last two years for the Texans.  It's a big crap shoot.  Jax Jags lost Dante Fowler in training camp.  They gave him max contract, fully guaranteed with no offset language!! $23.5 million guaranteed!  Ultimate crap shoot. After, Werner, TRich, and Dorsett, I feel we just can't afford to misfire too many times more in round 1.  I'm leaning that a guy missing the season on a non football injury rehabbing an ACL-MCL surgery might fall into that category for me.

 

Latest news from the Senior Bowl makes people think Smith will be back in time for Week 1. I don't buy it, but it's gotten a lot of people excited.

 

I also don't agree that he's a top five talent, but that's not a popular opinion, either.

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1 minute ago, Superman said:

 

Latest news from the Senior Bowl makes people think Smith will be back in time for Week 1. I don't buy it, but it's gotten a lot of people excited.

 

I also don't agree that he's a top five talent, but that's not a popular opinion, either.

 

We will know more when he goes through a battery of medical exams at the scouting combine soon enough. And again by those who may have a chance to draft him right before the draft. I don't feel he'll be even close to ready for week 1 at all.  And I felt he may be possibly top 10 talent, not top 5; but others consensus says otherwise.

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Just thinking of similarities to Willis McGahee- top 5 'cinch' draft pick, who then suffers multi-ligament knee injury in college championship game.  Projected to drop to as low as 3rd round due to 'long, tough rehab', then eventually selected (by Bills) at #23 in 2003.  Sat out that whole year in rehab.  How is J. Smith different?

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Just now, ColtsBlueFL said:

Just thinking of similarities to Willis McGahee- top 5 'cinch' draft pick, who then suffers multi-ligament knee injury in college championship game.  Projected to drop to as low as 3rd round due to 'long, tough rehab', then eventually selected (by Bills) at #23 in 2003.  Sat out that whole year in rehab.  How is J. Smith different?

 

McGahee tore three ligaments, Smith only tore two. McGahee also reportedly needed multiple surgeries to repair the damage. 

 

Secondly, it's 2016, not 2003. That's a major difference. Since McGahee, Adrian Peterson and Wes Welker were able to come back from multiple ligament injuries in 8 months. I think people see that it's a possibility that players can come back quickly from this injury, and then they start projecting those quick timelines to everyone. But it's hopes and dreams. Typical timeline for ACL is still closer to 12 months than 8 months, and that's with no setbacks.

 

To go along with your argument, when McGahee was drafted, teams could still sign rookies to five or six year contracts. So missing out on the rookie year wasn't as critical as it is now. If Jaylon Smith misses an entire year, that's 25% of his rookie contract, and now you have to start talking about whether you should even re-sign him, especially if there are additional injury considerations (which should be on the radar if you draft him). 

 

Long and short, his knee injury, and especially the time frame, makes me uneasy. He won't be able to work out for anyone by the time the draft happens. He could have a setback. I doubt he'll be able to participate in any of the offseason program, and I think it's maybe 50/50 at best that he can even play at all in 2016. The medical checks at the Combine -- if he allows them; Gurley didn't last year -- will be telling.

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18 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

Just thinking of similarities to Willis McGahee- top 5 'cinch' draft pick, who then suffers multi-ligament knee injury in college championship game.  Projected to drop to as low as 3rd round due to 'long, tough rehab', then eventually selected (by Bills) at #23 in 2003.  Sat out that whole year in rehab.  How is J. Smith different?

 

McGahee's injury was much worse. 

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41 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

McGahee tore three ligaments, Smith only tore two. McGahee also reportedly needed multiple surgeries to repair the damage. 

 

Secondly, it's 2016, not 2003. That's a major difference. Since McGahee, Adrian Peterson and Wes Welker were able to come back from multiple ligament injuries in 8 months. I think people see that it's a possibility that players can come back quickly from this injury, and then they start projecting those quick timelines to everyone. But it's hopes and dreams. Typical timeline for ACL is still closer to 12 months than 8 months, and that's with no setbacks.

 

To go along with your argument, when McGahee was drafted, teams could still sign rookies to five or six year contracts. So missing out on the rookie year wasn't as critical as it is now. If Jaylon Smith misses an entire year, that's 25% of his rookie contract, and now you have to start talking about whether you should even re-sign him, especially if there are additional injury considerations (which should be on the radar if you draft him). 

 

Long and short, his knee injury, and especially the time frame, makes me uneasy. He won't be able to work out for anyone by the time the draft happens. He could have a setback. I doubt he'll be able to participate in any of the offseason program, and I think it's maybe 50/50 at best that he can even play at all in 2016. The medical checks at the Combine -- if he allows them; Gurley didn't last year -- will be telling.

 

Good post.

 

The only thing I'd add is this.....

 

Whether or not Smith allows medical checks of his knee in late February,  odds are very good he will do a medical check of his knee in early April so teams will be able to get the latest medical updates before the draft.

 

If the news is good,  I think more information will help Smith.      I suppose if the news is bad,  he could withhold the info,   but in the long-run teams will find out what's going on.....     no one is going to invest a first round pick on Smith without some pretty solid medical information to back-up their decision....

 

(I know you know all this,  this post is mostly for others who may not....)

 

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19 minutes ago, Superman said:

 

McGahee tore three ligaments, Smith only tore two. McGahee also reportedly needed multiple surgeries to repair the damage. 

 

Secondly, it's 2016, not 2003. That's a major difference. Since McGahee, Adrian Peterson and Wes Welker were able to come back from multiple ligament injuries in 8 months. I think people see that it's a possibility that players can come back quickly from this injury, and then they start projecting those quick timelines to everyone. But it's hopes and dreams. Typical timeline for ACL is still closer to 12 months than 8 months, and that's with no setbacks.

 

To go along with your argument, when McGahee was drafted, teams could still sign rookies to five or six year contracts. So missing out on the rookie year wasn't as critical as it is now. If Jaylon Smith misses an entire year, that's 25% of his rookie contract, and now you have to start talking about whether you should even re-sign him, especially if there are additional injury considerations (which should be on the radar if you draft him). 

 

Long and short, his knee injury, and especially the time frame, makes me uneasy. He won't be able to work out for anyone by the time the draft happens. He could have a setback. I doubt he'll be able to participate in any of the offseason program, and I think it's maybe 50/50 at best that he can even play at all in 2016. The medical checks at the Combine -- if he allows them; Gurley didn't last year -- will be telling.

 

I think it was eventually released that at the surgery he had at HealthSouth Doctors Hospital, they only found two torn ligaments in McGahee's knee, even though the PCL had been also initially reported to be torn along with the ACL and MCL.

 

https://www.baxterwalshpt.com/willis-mcgahee-2003-knee-injury-presents-career-challenges/

 

It is true he needed additional surgery before he rehabbed and was finally fit to play.  Hopefully J. Smith does not need additional surgery.  Realistically, 9-12 months is still a real timetable for an ACL-MCL surgical recovery.  6 month rehab  A. Peterson's are very few and far between.  And I feel Vets getting heavy $$ on their contract are motivated to dedicate to rehab better and harder to return and retain their jobs than a never played in the NFL rookie on a low $$ multiyear deal.  J. Smith also stands to lose millions because of this.  Even falling from #5 to #15 could cost him 10+ million.  We'll see how it plays out, but it is a risk nonetheless.

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29 minutes ago, NewColtsFan said:

 

Good post.

 

The only thing I'd add is this.....

 

Whether or not Smith allows medical checks of his knee in late February,  odds are very good he will do a medical check of his knee in early April so teams will be able to get the latest medical updates before the draft.

 

If the news is good,  I think more information will help Smith.      I suppose if the news is bad,  he could withhold the info,   but in the long-run teams will find out what's going on.....     no one is going to invest a first round pick on Smith without some pretty solid medical information to back-up their decision....

 

(I know you know all this,  this post is mostly for others who may not....)

 

 

Agreed.

 

Even with his own medical check in April, it's not quite the same as the checks that are done at the Combine. I think teams would like for him to do both, but it's obviously up to him and his people. I think Gurley refusing the medical check at the Combine last year makes it easier for Smith to do the same this year.

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41 minutes ago, Dustin said:

 

McGahee's injury was much worse. 

 

How?  Both had serious ACL - MCL knee ligament damage needing reconstructive surgery.

 

McGahee only had ACL - MCL (not a PCL too as was reported)

J. Smith only had ACL - MCL (not nerve damage too as was reported)

 

Can you explain the intricacies of their respective injuries and the reconstruction procedures and complications that did/did not arise from their respective reconstructions that would/could affect their rehab/recovery time?  Maybe you know something more I don't.

 

McGahee injury play=

McGahee%20AclMcl_zpsj0qedi8k.jpg

J.Smith injury play-

JSmith_AclMcl_zpshatoo4v5.jpg

 

their videos below:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=14480100

 

 

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42 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

I think it was eventually released that at the surgery he had at HealthSouth Doctors Hospital, they only found two torn ligaments in McGahee's knee, even though the PCL had been also initially reported to be torn along with the ACL and MCL.

 

https://www.baxterwalshpt.com/willis-mcgahee-2003-knee-injury-presents-career-challenges/

 

It is true he needed additional surgery before he rehabbed and was finally fit to play.  Hopefully J. Smith does not need additional surgery.  Realistically, 9-12 months is still a real timetable for an ACL-MCL surgical recovery.  6 month rehab  A. Peterson's are very few and far between.  And I feel Vets getting heavy $$ on their contract are motivated to dedicate to rehab better and harder to return and retain their jobs than a never played in the NFL rookie on a low $$ multiyear deal.  J. Smith also stands to lose millions because of this.  Even falling from #5 to #15 could cost him 10+ million.  We'll see how it plays out, but it is a risk nonetheless.

 

Thanks for the link. I thought it was a less serious tear of the PCL, but that says there was none. I think Smith is the ACL and the PCL, no tear to the MCL. So slightly different. (Edit: ACL and LCL, not PCL.)

 

Your point about an established vet rehabbing compared to a guy who hasn't even been through a pro season yet is a very good one. Peterson had his own money, team doctors, etc. He could be singularly focused on getting ready for the season. Didn't have to worry about meeting coaches and teammates, learning the playbook, minicamp installs, etc. Same for Welker.

 

And there are other reasons why it's unwise to try to use veteran recoveries as guidelines for Smith. Still, I think people look at Welker and Peterson and get excited about that low-end recovery timetable, even though it's obviously not typical. 

 

Smith has a $5m policy that pays out if he drops out of the first round. So at a certain point, it's probably better for him to go at the top of the second round than at the end of the first, financially speaking. At #15, it's kind of a wash; but at #25, the advantage goes to falling out of the first round, by about $2m. He might even prefer to not be subjected to a fifth year option.

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13 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

How?  Both had serious ACL - MCL knee ligament damage needing reconstructive surgery.

 

The fact that McGahee needed multiple operations to repair the damage suggests that his injury was worse than Smith's. It could just mean Smith had a better surgeon, but nonetheless I think it's better to have one surgery rather than multiple surgeries.

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4 minutes ago, Superman said:

Thanks for the link. I thought it was a less serious tear of the PCL, but that says there was none. I think Smith is the ACL and the PCL, no tear to the MCL. So slightly different.

 

I really think they are the same injury-

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/01/06/top-draft-prospect-jaylon-smith-having-aclmcl-surgery/

 

And multiple other sites as well.  It's really immaterial in any event as the ACL is the main recovery item here, even though though both were treated. 

 

I think you are right in that he will follow Gurley in handling the combine / draft medical checks.

 

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3 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

I really think they are the same injury-

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2016/01/06/top-draft-prospect-jaylon-smith-having-aclmcl-surgery/

 

And multiple other sites as well.  It's really immaterial in any event as the ACL is the main recovery item here, even though though both were treated. 

 

I think you are right in that he will follow Gurley in handling the combine / draft medical checks.

 

 

I guess it depends on the reporting. I've now seen Smith's injury reported as ACL/MCL/PCL, ACL/MCL, ACL/PCL, and ACL/LCL. Can't get the stories straight, but maybe his people will clarify at some point.

 

In any event, like you said, the ACL is the primary issue. If it were three ligaments, that would be worse than two, but most reporting says it's just two, so it's not a big deal which. 

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I think it is ironic that last season all kinds of hades was raised with the Dorsett pick. But yet now some want the Colts to make a pick that cant be used till the following season. Most of us knew by picking a receiver it would be at least one year before he would make an impact but now all of a sudden it's OK? I just find it puzzling on how perceptions are made.

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14 minutes ago, crazycolt1 said:

I think it is ironic that last season all kinds of hades was raised with the Dorsett pick. But yet now some want the Colts to make a pick that cant be used till the following season. Most of us knew by picking a receiver it would be at least one year before he would make an impact but now all of a sudden it's OK? I just find it puzzling on how perceptions are made.

 

Many people think the draft should be graded on whether the player selected fits perceived needs. I guess it doesn't matter if the player might not play for a year.

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1 hour ago, Superman said:

 

The fact that McGahee needed multiple operations to repair the damage suggests that his injury was worse than Smith's. It could just mean Smith had a better surgeon, but nonetheless I think it's better to have one surgery rather than multiple surgeries.

 

I don't feel you can go by this... not yet any way.  Read this article written right after McGahee's surgery-

 

http://www.hurricanesports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=28700&ATCLID=205548359

 

"The surgery went very well and Willis tolerated the procedure very well," Uribe said. "If nature does its job and his rehabilitation goes well, he should be able to make a full recovery."

 

and some 4 months later in this article-

 

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/football/draft/2003-04-22-mcgahee-knee_x.htm

 

That a setback was suspected to happen?  It plain wasn't.  Clearly any (alleged) second surgery wasn't within the first 4 months.  Or McGahee would not have been taken in round 1 at #25.  Things happen.  It could still happen to Jaylon too.  Until Jaylon actually returns, we don't know. You never know. You have an idea, a general anticipated timetable.  But no absolutes. I think in 5 months, the picture will be a little clearer on Jaylon Smith, but not completely conclusive.

 

It took Peyton 4 neck surgeries and and a long rehab road to return.  Why not just 1?  Maybe with the next guy it was only just one surgery.  And maybe he didn't even have Peyton's money or doctors.  You never know.  Setbacks sometimes happen. You never know for sure. And I'm sorry, I don't think Dustin knows either.

 

Besides, I can't find any info on a second surgery, just this blurb in the summer 2003 from  ff site-

 

Willis McGahee, RB, Buffalo Bills
Injury Specifics: Recovering From ACL Surgery

Fantasy Status: Despite making tremendous progress, McGahee won't be ready to practice when the Bills open training camp and according to team officials, he will likely open the regular season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. If that happens, Willis won't be able to play until at least Week 10 but as it stands now, the likelihood of him playing at all in 2003 is slim to none. Don't waste your time here guys. He's only a late-round gamble in dynasty leagues and is not even worth a look in redraft and keeper leagues.

 

http://www.fftoday.com/special/pfs_injury.htm

 

And after 10 months rehab, this article on Bills activating (but not playing) McGahee rather than IR.  They did activate him days later so he could continue to rehab/practice.

 

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2003-10-29-injury-roundup_x.htm

 

 

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1 hour ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

I don't feel you can go by this... not yet any way.  Read this article written right after McGahee's surgery-

 

http://www.hurricanesports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=28700&ATCLID=205548359

 

"The surgery went very well and Willis tolerated the procedure very well," Uribe said. "If nature does its job and his rehabilitation goes well, he should be able to make a full recovery."

 

and some 4 months later in this article-

 

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/football/draft/2003-04-22-mcgahee-knee_x.htm

 

That a setback was suspected to happen?  It plain wasn't.  Clearly any (alleged) second surgery wasn't within the first 4 months.  Or McGahee would not have been taken in round 1 at #25.  Things happen.  It could still happen to Jaylon too.  Until Jaylon actually returns, we don't know. You never know. You have an idea, a general anticipated timetable.  But no absolutes. I think in 5 months, the picture will be a little clearer on Jaylon Smith, but not completely conclusive.

 

It took Peyton 4 neck surgeries and and a long rehab road to return.  Why not just 1?  Maybe with the next guy it was only just one surgery.  And maybe he didn't even have Peyton's money or doctors.  You never know.  Setbacks sometimes happen. You never know for sure. And I'm sorry, I don't think Dustin knows either.

 

Besides, I can't find any info on a second surgery, just this blurb in the summer 2003 from  ff site-

 

Willis McGahee, RB, Buffalo Bills
Injury Specifics: Recovering From ACL Surgery

Fantasy Status: Despite making tremendous progress, McGahee won't be ready to practice when the Bills open training camp and according to team officials, he will likely open the regular season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. If that happens, Willis won't be able to play until at least Week 10 but as it stands now, the likelihood of him playing at all in 2003 is slim to none. Don't waste your time here guys. He's only a late-round gamble in dynasty leagues and is not even worth a look in redraft and keeper leagues.

 

http://www.fftoday.com/special/pfs_injury.htm

 

And after 10 months rehab, this article on Bills activating (but not playing) McGahee rather than IR.  They did activate him days later so he could continue to rehab/practice.

 

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2003-10-29-injury-roundup_x.htm

 

I was under the impression that he had his second operation shortly after his first. I'm not sure whether that's the case or not; like you, I'm unable to find good information on it right now, and I'm bored of trying. Maybe it was a setback.

 

Obviously Smith could have a setback. That's part of the risk, for sure, but as of right now, it hasn't happened. There are a lot of players who have ACLs and don't need multiple operations. That's probably the norm, not McGahee, especially in 2016. There are no absolutes, obviously.

 

All that said, I still think Smith getting on the field prior to October is unlikely. I would be surprised if he even gets on the practice field before then. 

 

And I know the Manning example wasn't meant to be an absolute comparison, but that's an entirely different situation. Different injury, different body part, different kind of athlete, different indications, etc. 

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46 minutes ago, Superman said:

Obviously Smith could have a setback. That's part of the risk, for sure, but as of right now, it hasn't happened. There are a lot of players who have ACLs and don't need multiple operations.

 

Let's look at Todd Gurley.  He was hurt Nov 15, 2014 and made the field Sept. 27, 2015.  316 days, no reported setbacks.  If Jaylon makes it back about the same recovery time frame from his injury, he will hit the field November 20, 2016.  319 days.  Week 11 in 2016 schedule.  McGahee was activated week 10 in 2003.  They just didn't suit him up and risk bringing him along too quick.  They kept him active in practice, no games.  My point is if one claims someones injury was a lot worse, they need to back it with supporting evidence.  My research tends to refute that claim.

 

But we don't know if Smith can rehab quicker, slower, or the same as Gurley.  It is unknown.  And Gurley had a clean ACL only injury, which some people would says was less serious than Jaylon Smith's injury.  It's a risk for certain.

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41 minutes ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

McGahee was activated week 10 in 2003.  They just didn't suit him up and risk bringing him along too quick.

 

There's a BIG difference between activating someone for practice and that person being ready to play in a game. Because of the way the Bills handled McGahee, we can't know when he would have actually been ready to suit up; they chose to keep him on the roster so that he could continue to rehab, but I would suggest that he wasn't ready to play, probably wasn't close, and wouldn't have been able to play even if they weren't being extra cautious with him. That's complete speculation on my part, but I don't think his 10+ months from injury to activation was the same as Gurley's 10+ months.

 

I still think even 10 months is ambitious for Smith. It could happen, I just wouldn't count on it. I think 8 months is way ridiculous.

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7 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

How?  Both had serious ACL - MCL knee ligament damage needing reconstructive surgery.

 

McGahee only had ACL - MCL (not a PCL too as was reported)

J. Smith only had ACL - MCL (not nerve damage too as was reported)

 

Can you explain the intricacies of their respective injuries and the reconstruction procedures and complications that did/did not arise from their respective reconstructions that would/could affect their rehab/recovery time?  Maybe you know something more I don't.

 

McGahee injury play=

McGahee%20AclMcl_zpsj0qedi8k.jpg

J.Smith injury play-

JSmith_AclMcl_zpshatoo4v5.jpg

 

their videos below:

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=14480100

 

 

 

Mostly because it was his second tear in the same knee.

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6 hours ago, ColtsBlueFL said:

 

I don't feel you can go by this... not yet any way.  Read this article written right after McGahee's surgery-

 

http://www.hurricanesports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=28700&ATCLID=205548359

 

"The surgery went very well and Willis tolerated the procedure very well," Uribe said. "If nature does its job and his rehabilitation goes well, he should be able to make a full recovery."

 

and some 4 months later in this article-

 

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/football/draft/2003-04-22-mcgahee-knee_x.htm

 

That a setback was suspected to happen?  It plain wasn't.  Clearly any (alleged) second surgery wasn't within the first 4 months.  Or McGahee would not have been taken in round 1 at #25.  Things happen.  It could still happen to Jaylon too.  Until Jaylon actually returns, we don't know. You never know. You have an idea, a general anticipated timetable.  But no absolutes. I think in 5 months, the picture will be a little clearer on Jaylon Smith, but not completely conclusive.

 

It took Peyton 4 neck surgeries and and a long rehab road to return.  Why not just 1?  Maybe with the next guy it was only just one surgery.  And maybe he didn't even have Peyton's money or doctors.  You never know.  Setbacks sometimes happen. You never know for sure. And I'm sorry, I don't think Dustin knows either.

 

Besides, I can't find any info on a second surgery, just this blurb in the summer 2003 from  ff site-

 

Willis McGahee, RB, Buffalo Bills
Injury Specifics: Recovering From ACL Surgery

Fantasy Status: Despite making tremendous progress, McGahee won't be ready to practice when the Bills open training camp and according to team officials, he will likely open the regular season on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. If that happens, Willis won't be able to play until at least Week 10 but as it stands now, the likelihood of him playing at all in 2003 is slim to none. Don't waste your time here guys. He's only a late-round gamble in dynasty leagues and is not even worth a look in redraft and keeper leagues.

 

http://www.fftoday.com/special/pfs_injury.htm

 

And after 10 months rehab, this article on Bills activating (but not playing) McGahee rather than IR.  They did activate him days later so he could continue to rehab/practice.

 

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/2003-10-29-injury-roundup_x.htm

 

 

 

 

Your links contradict each other. The one from Baxter says there was no PCL injury, but the one from USA today's says he had tears but they weren't as sever as expected. 

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This has to happen.  This team lost much of it identity by bringing in other teams' trash to replace guys.  We had great leadership in that locker room and replacing guys like Reggie Wayne, Dwight Freeney, and Antoine Beathea with Andre Johnson, Erik Walden, and LaRon Landry instead of with guys that we drafted that were able to learn from those guys and be "horseshoe" guys is not a recipe for success.  You bring in guys with their own agendas and just want a paycheck.  

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2 hours ago, Dustin said:

 

Mostly because it was his second tear in the same knee.

 

Indicator a re-tear is 30% more liklely to occur,   I am not sure how it may or may not have affected the second rehab depending upon type of graft and rehab routine etc...  I think  the team  decided early to bring him along more slowly and shelve him all of 2003.  They had Travis Henry.

 

2 hours ago, Dustin said:

Your links contradict each other. The one from Baxter says there was no PCL injury, but the one from USA today's says he had tears but they weren't as sever as expected. 

 

2 hours ago, Dustin said:

 

 USA Today was a couple months after injury, in 2003 still within the initial reports time frame where everyone was still reporting the PCL tear. and the story wasn't wasn't as detailed.  The Baxter was a detailed report from a Rehabilitative Therapy firm in August of 2014 specifically on his case.

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