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Patriots favored over Broncos by 3.5 points


chad72

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1 minute ago, ColtRider said:

 

This reminds me of the Colts v. Ravens several years back on our way to the 2006-07 SB. No one, and I mean no one picked Indianapolis to win. Our defense was rated last against the pass & not very good against the run. That was Adam Vinateiri & the defense who win that game & Bob Sanders igniting it throughout the way to the SB.

Great memories my brother. You are right nobody picked us to win that game and Peyton was even in his prime. That Ravens Defense was crazy great with Ray, Ed, Suggs, etc.. They even had Lewis at RB, a Great O.Line, and McNair at QB. Man that win was awesome!

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3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Great memories my brother. You are right nobody picked us to win that game and Peyton was even in his prime. That Ravens Defense was crazy great with Ray, Ed, Suggs, etc.. They even had Lewis at RB, a Great O.Line, and McNair at QB. Man that win was awesome!

 

And, it was in Baltimore to boot! :) 

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Just now, ColtRider said:

 

And, it was in Baltimore to boot! :) 

That SB run we had was very impressive. We won at Baltimore when they had Ray, Ed, Suggs, McNair, Lewis, and a Great O.Line, then we beat Tommy and BB. It gets overlooked because we beat Rex Grossman in the SB but people that don't know football only look at that.

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25 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Who's that. I am being dead honest, I have never heard of him. He probably lives in Colorado haha He doesn't work for ESPN or the NFL Network I know that because I would've heard of him. Until someone picks Denver from those 2 it's irrelevant who picks them IMO. I pick Denver too but it's irrelevant.

Pete Priscoe? He's the Senior NFL Analyst for CBS Sports.

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Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Yeah I know who he is now. I had to think for a minute, the name sounded familiar but I couldn't place it earlier and he works for CBS. Wow 1 person. LOL

 

I almost had a second one for you (Will Brinson, also from CBS)...but then I read it and he's actually picking the Broncos to lose but cover. Though in reality if you are going that route with a 3 point spread, you are essentially calling it a tossup. http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/25456673/afc-nfc-conference-championship-game-picks-everyone-undervaluing-broncos

 

 

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27 minutes ago, ColtRider said:

 

And, it was in Baltimore to boot! :) 

I may be living in the past but I would take my 2006 team against any team in NFL history. 10-0 at home overall and we won at Baltimore vs Ray and beat Tommy and BB. We didn't go undefeated or break any records but had to win 4 Playoff games to win it all and ended up 16-4, 80% winnings. I think had Bob Sanders been healthy all season that team would've been a 14-2/15-1 SB winner. We had Peyton, Marvin, Reggie, Clark, Saturday, Glenn, Freeney, Mathis, Brackett, June, Sanders, and Vinny. We were loaded. The combo of Rhodes and Addai running the ball kept defenses honest too. Addai was young and strong and Rhodes was a decent Vet. It's ashame the year we win it Edge wasn't on our team.

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23 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I may be living in the past but I would take my 2006 team against any team in NFL history. 10-0 at home overall and we won at Baltimore vs Ray and beat Tommy and BB. We didn't go undefeated or break any records but had to win 4 Playoff games to win it all and ended up 16-4, 80% winnings. I think had Bob Sanders been healthy all season that team would've been a 14-2/15-1 SB winner. We had Peyton, Marvin, Reggie, Clark, Saturday, Glenn, Freeney, Mathis, Brackett, June, Sanders, and Vinny. We were loaded. The combo of Rhodes and Addai running the ball kept defenses honest too. Addai was young and strong and Rhodes was a decent Vet. It's ashame the year we win it Edge wasn't on our team.

 

I agree. Last year Tony Dungy was asked what Colts team was the most formidable out of all the Indy teams he had. He said, 2004. That was not surprising to me. All the one & dones made me sick, because we did have very, very powerful teams during the 2000s. A play here, a play there, made all the difference in the world. 

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18 minutes ago, ColtRider said:

 

I agree. Last year Tony Dungy was asked what Colts team was the most formidable out of all the Indy teams he had. He said, 2004. That was not surprising to me. All the one & dones made me sick, because we did have very, very powerful teams during the 2000s. A play here, a play there, made all the difference in the world. 

2005 was really powerful too but we laid an egg against Pitt. Getting Vinny in the off season was critical because he is automatic. Vander is a choker IMO, his miss FG looked fake to me and I cant stand him anyway because of his attitude. 2004 was the year Peyton had 49 TD's, I thought our Offense was unstoppable but the Pats proved otherwise. I was surprised at how easily the Pats beat us in 2004. It was 20-3. We were a machine that season but that awful snowy weather there derailed us more than anything.

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52 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

2005 was really powerful too but we laid an egg against Pitt. Getting Vinny in the off season was critical because he is automatic. Vander is a choker IMO, his miss FG looked fake to me and I cant stand him anyway because of his attitude. 2004 was the year Peyton had 49 TD's, I thought our Offense was unstoppable but the Pats proved otherwise. I was surprised at how easily the Pats beat us in 2004. It was 20-3. We were a machine that season but that awful snowy weather there derailed us more than anything.

 

What is interesting was that the Colts were favored in that game against the Pats in Foxboro.

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1 hour ago, ColtRider said:

 

I agree. Last year Tony Dungy was asked what Colts team was the most formidable out of all the Indy teams he had. He said, 2004. That was not surprising to me. All the one & dones made me sick, because we did have very, very powerful teams during the 2000s. A play here, a play there, made all the difference in the world. 

 

We were built around Peyton, that was our number one mistake. Outside in instead of inside out. So, if Peyton did not put up 21 points or more, down we go. We could not get stops when we needed, or force turnovers as much as we needed. That is not a recipe for winning SBs. 

 

Brady has 11 of his 22 postseason wins with the Patriots D giving up 17 points or less, with only one of them a loss (14-17 to Giants), let that sink in. 5 of those came during his first 2 SB wins. The one year Peyton and the Colts won a game scoring 15 points in the playoffs, we won the SB. There is a reason why for the longest time Ds won championships till they opened up things in favor of the offense. The 3 years when Peyton's Ds held opposing Os to 17 points or less in the playoffs (Chiefs, Ravens in 2006; Ravens, Jets in 2009; Chargers, Patriots in 2013), Peyton went to the SB all those 3 years. I am not making it up.

 

Bill Polian, from his Bills days, built the team outside in instead of inside out, which is what Irsay and Grigson are trying to change during this Luck era, which I badly hope they do.

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9 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

We were built around Peyton, that was our number one mistake. Outside in instead of inside out. So, if Peyton did not put up 21 points or more, down we go. We could not get stops when we needed, or force turnovers as much as we needed. That is not a recipe for winning SBs. 

 

Brady has won 11 of his 22 postseason games with the Patriots D giving up 17 points or less, with only one of them a loss (14-17 to Giants), let that sink in. 5 of those came during his first 2 SB wins. The one year Peyton and the Colts won a game scoring 15 points in the playoffs, we won the SB. There is a reason why for the longest time Ds won championships till they opened up things in favor of the offense. The 3 years when Peyton's Ds held opposing Os to 17 points or less in the playoffs (Chiefs, Ravens in 2006; Ravens, Jets in 2009; Chargers, Patriots in 2013), Peyton went to the SB all those 3 years. I am not making it up.

 

Bill Polian, from his Bills days, built the team outside in instead of inside out, which is what Irsay and Grigson are trying to change during this Luck era, which I badly hope they do.

 

Wholeheartedly agree here. Neglecting defense is a casualty of NFL warfare. I've said it a million times. If Peyton and the Colts had a Top 5 defense to go along with their prolific offenses from 1999-2010? Oh baby! We're not talking about New England. We're talking Indianapolis Colts & their "Dynasty"! Period. 

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19 minutes ago, BrentMc11 said:

Go to Hooked on phonics and practice it....:)  HA HA!  I can tell ya one thing, there are times in the past I made no sense and I did not care.

It was sarcastic.  You can't make sense like that around here. 

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5 hours ago, Yehoodi said:

I have not followed the national media the last few days, but it looks like from the posts in this threat that a lot of them are picking the Pats.  Surely, anything can happen especially if Peyton returns to his old Sheriff form and lights things up.

 

With that said tho, one can understand where the analysts are coming from with their predictions.   Last year the Pats beat the Broncos, with a healthy Peyton, 43-21 albeit at home.  This year with 5-6 of our top players out or out during the game, the Pats had a 21-7 lead in the 4th qtr until our 3rd/4th string punt returner muffed a punt and gave life and momentum to the Broncos.  Then, as D13 mentioned, a few "interesting" calls at key times taking away third down conversions for us/long pass completions or extended Broncos drives and the game is in OT.

 

The question becomes is the 4th qtr of this year game an exception/can be repeated or is it the norm.  Given that we have many of our players back who missed December and that Denver game and we appeared to play healthy last weekend, some are thinking last years game and the three qtrs. in Denver this year are indicative of the relationship between the two teams.

 

Again, anything can happen on either side of the ball, and that is why they play the game.  But given the last 7 qtrs. of football between the two teams, one can see where the analysts are coming from.  

Thus is why I like you Yehoodi & D13 too. You guys are fair in your analysis/predictions. I know Brady's o-line protection isn't great, but I also know if Bill shuts down CJ Anderson; Peyton will probably be screwed. 

 

I know who I want to win & who will probably win & just leave it at that. Just line up & get it on at this point right?

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4 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

That SB run we had was very impressive. We won at Baltimore when they had Ray, Ed, Suggs, McNair, Lewis, and a Great O.Line, then we beat Tommy and BB. It gets overlooked because we beat Rex Grossman in the SB but people that don't know football only look at that.

Baltimore and NE were really good teams that year. I agree our SB was the AFC Championship game....I actually consider it an accomplishment to win it all because the team could have had a let down after finally beating the Pats. They fought through some adversity that year.

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TJ Ward, Von Miller, Chris Harris, Jr., & Aqib Taleb. Please, please, please avoid late hits after the play is over. 

 

Taleb, if you poke Edelman or Amendola in the eye & give NE the FG that wins the game, I will personally kick your caboose myself. That's a promise. Enough said. 

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2 hours ago, southwest1 said:

Thus is why I like you Yehoodi & D13 too. You guys are fair in your analysis/predictions. I know Brady's o-line protection isn't great, but I also know if Bill shuts down CJ Anderson; Peyton will probably be screwed. 

 

I know who I want to win & who will probably win & just leave it at that. Just line up & get it on at this point right?

 

Yup SW, it should be a fun game to watch on Sunday.

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5 hours ago, ColtRider said:

 

Wholeheartedly agree here. Neglecting defense is a casualty of NFL warfare. I've said it a million times. If Peyton and the Colts had a Top 5 defense to go along with their prolific offenses from 1999-2010? Oh baby! We're not talking about New England. We're talking Indianapolis Colts & their "Dynasty"! Period. 

Colts had the #2 defense in 2005, #1 in 2007, #7 in 2008, #8 in 2009...so they did have some pretty solid defenses during that stretch.

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3 hours ago, Bad Morty said:

Colts had the #2 defense in 2005, #1 in 2007, #7 in 2008, #8 in 2009...so they did have some pretty solid defenses during that stretch.

The problem with 2007 is we lost Dwight Freeney for the season midway through that season and didn't have him for the Playoffs so 2007 is deceptive. That 2005 team just laid an egg vs Pitt in the Playoffs so not much I can say regarding that season. Other than those 2 seasons we never had a Top 5 season in Peyton era.

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5 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

The problem with 2007 is we lost Dwight Freeney for the season midway through that season and didn't have him for the Playoffs so 2007 is deceptive. That 2005 team just laid an egg vs Pitt in the Playoffs so not much I can say regarding that season. Other than those 2 seasons we never had a Top 5 season in Peyton era.

 

2005 - When Bettis fumbled at the goal line if CB, think Mathis, turned other way towrads sidelines instead of into Big Ben he never would of been caught and= TD, or Better Yet if his wife hadnt just stabbed his quad days before he could of run faster, instead Ben tackles him after a nice gain & then we drive and Vanderjerk just shankd the FG & game over as nill time left

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3 hours ago, Jules said:

Was trying to find some 2004 highlights, instead I found this and thought I would share if nobody remembers it. Just to lighten the tension......

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks Jules I needed that one, there 

 

somewhere on the net yesterday I think, had a comparison of Brady Vs Peyton as hosts of SNL - they   showed each others skits 

 

Peyton won that one easily, voters said Peyton was so much more at ease and funnier , a natural actor, just comfortable in front of the camera , always knowing what to say and how to deliver like in a sports interview, then addaed Brady doesnt have to be with a wife named Giselle

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4 hours ago, Jules said:

Was trying to find some 2004 highlights, instead I found this and thought I would share if nobody remembers it. Just to lighten the tension......

 

 

 

 

 

 

haha this reminds me of a Kenny Chesney concert I went to several years ago and Peyton was on stage with the band all night...   lol   Not sure that his guitar was actually plugged in, but he was having a ball.:hat::billiejean:

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17 hours ago, chad72 said:

 

We were built around Peyton, that was our number one mistake. Outside in instead of inside out. So, if Peyton did not put up 21 points or more, down we go. We could not get stops when we needed, or force turnovers as much as we needed. That is not a recipe for winning SBs. 

 

Brady has 11 of his 22 postseason wins with the Patriots D giving up 17 points or less, with only one of them a loss (14-17 to Giants), let that sink in. 5 of those came during his first 2 SB wins. The one year Peyton and the Colts won a game scoring 15 points in the playoffs, we won the SB. There is a reason why for the longest time Ds won championships till they opened up things in favor of the offense. The 3 years when Peyton's Ds held opposing Os to 17 points or less in the playoffs (Chiefs, Ravens in 2006; Ravens, Jets in 2009; Chargers, Patriots in 2013), Peyton went to the SB all those 3 years. I am not making it up.

 

Bill Polian, from his Bills days, built the team outside in instead of inside out, which is what Irsay and Grigson are trying to change during this Luck era, which I badly hope they do.

 

Thanks for the post Chad72.   Although I may not agree with stacking the offensive side of the ball to help you best asset, the QB, it may not be as wrong as you think in the end. 

 

We can look at your stats a few ways to get a better, and perhaps fuller grip, on the situation.

 

True 11 of 22 Pats (50%) wins have come when the opponent is held to 17 points or less.  Of course that then means that the other 11 of 22 wins (50%) come when the opponent scores more than 17 points.  In another words the Pats have won as many games giving up less than 17 as they have yielding more than 17.

 

The colts on the other hand have 6 of their 9 wins (66%) when they held opponents below 17, and 3 of 9 (33%) when they yield more than 17, and like the pats have a single loss 17-16 to the Jets in 2010.   So a higher percentage of the colts wins are credited to when they yield less that 17 points whereas the pats it does matter as they are equal on either side of the 17 point barrier.

 

As a side note for Peyton's entire career the numbers are 9/12 (75%) and 3/12 (25%).

 

So yes, D does help as we all know there are three phases in the game, but I would not be so quick to fault the Colts front office when they have more wins under 17 points than over where other teams are balance over the 17 point barrier.  

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46 minutes ago, Yehoodi said:

 

Thanks for the post Chad72.   Although I may not agree with stacking the offensive side of the ball to help you best asset, the QB, it may not be as wrong as you think in the end. 

 

We can look at your stats a few ways to get a better, and perhaps fuller grip, on the situation.

 

True 11 of 22 Pats (50%) wins have come when the opponent is held to 17 points or less.  Of course that then means that the other 11 of 22 wins (50%) come when the opponent scores more than 17 points.  In another words the Pats have won as many games giving up less than 17 as they have yielding more than 17.

 

The colts on the other hand have 6 of their 9 wins (66%) when they held opponents below 17, and 3 of 9 (33%) when they yield more than 17, and like the pats have a single loss 17-16 to the Jets in 2010.   So a higher percentage of the colts wins are credited to when they yield less that 17 points whereas the pats it does matter as they are equal on either side of the 17 point barrier.

 

As a side note for Peyton's entire career the numbers are 9/12 (75%) and 3/12 (25%).

 

So yes, D does help as we all know there are three phases in the game, but I would not be so quick to fault the Colts front office when they have more wins under 17 points than over where other teams are balance over the 17 point barrier.  

 

It goes more deeper than just the 17 point barrier but I just don't have more time to chart it out. I think you have to factor in time of possession too, it was just frustrating to watch teams go down the field without punting or turning it over while consuming time vs the Colts' D. Normally, you think holding them to a FG is a win but not when 6 or 7 minutes of time is consumed the majority of the time. The style of D that the Steelers, Ravens, and even Patriots play was more conducive to "forcing the issue with the opponent's O" that probably helped overcome QB mistakes too because either you force the opponent's O to go for a quick score or give the ball back and thus give plenty of opportunities for your QB.

 

The truth of the matter that everyone had to acknowledge is - whether it is Brady or Peyton, they are going to need enough opportunities to make dents against playoff Ds because points are at a premium in the playoffs. The point I am making exclusively with Peyton is even in the regular season, he was batting just above .500 vs top 5 Ds, so expecting him to do better in the playoffs because he lit it up against the other Ds was not something I would have bet on, so a focus on the D would have been money wisely spent, IMO. There were things about the timing based offense that elite Ds could take away come playoff time when typically more contact was allowed from DBs. For example, as recent as the latest SB, in the 4th qtr., the Patriots' D forcing RW to 3 and outs or punting is what gave Brady enough opportunities to mount his comeback. That factor is often overlooked. Giants, during both their 2 SB runs, controlled tempo and time of possession as good as any opportunistic team that I have seen. They shrunk the SB 42 and 46 vs the Patriots with ball control, the same way the Saints shrunk SB 44 vs the Colts. 

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56 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

It goes more deeper than just the 17 point barrier but I just don't have more time to chart it out. I think you have to factor in time of possession too, it was just frustrating to watch teams go down the field without punting or turning it over while consuming time vs the Colts' D. Normally, you think holding them to a FG is a win but not when 6 or 7 minutes of time is consumed the majority of the time. The style of D that the Steelers, Ravens, and even Patriots play was more conducive to "forcing the issue with the opponent's O" that probably helped overcome QB mistakes too because either you force the opponent's O to go for a quick score or give the ball back and thus give plenty of opportunities for your QB.

 

The truth of the matter that everyone had to acknowledge is - whether it is Brady or Peyton, they are going to need enough opportunities to make dents against playoff Ds because points are at a premium in the playoffs. The point I am making exclusively with Peyton is even in the regular season, he was batting just above .500 vs top 5 Ds, so expecting him to do better in the playoffs because he lit it up against the other Ds was not something I would have bet on, so a focus on the D would have been money wisely spent, IMO. There were things about the timing based offense that elite Ds could take away come playoff time when typically more contact was allowed from DBs. For example, as recent as the latest SB, in the 4th qtr., the Patriots' D forcing RW to 3 and outs or punting is what gave Brady enough opportunities to mount his comeback. That factor is often overlooked. Giants, during both their 2 SB runs, controlled tempo and time of possession as good as any opportunistic team that I have seen. They shrunk the SB 42 and 46 vs the Patriots with ball control, the same way the Saints shrunk SB 44 vs the Colts. 

 

Yes there are a lot of factors one needs to takes into consideration when viewing a game and it is more involved than it looks on the surface.   I am not as worried about time of possession too much, but do sometimes look at number of possessions when looking at an offensive and defensive performance.  

 

For instance in SB42 there were really only 8 possessions each side, when normally one might get 10 or more per game.  So the score seems low, 17-14, but the offenses scored on 5 of 16 possessions (with the pats in FG range for a possible 6), so not as bad and some may think.

 

I agree with your point that in the postseason you are facing tougher teams and at times tougher Ds and teams do not always win when they are favored to win.

 

And yes one of the hidden things about comebacks is the fact that the D needs to help keep the other team from scoring or you will never catch up.  This is true about all comebacks by all teams, and it is one of the hidden things about comebacks.  The offense still needs to do its job by scoring, but needs the help from the D.  Many times folks will credit the QB/offense without conveying the whole story.       

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