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Patriots favored over Broncos by 3.5 points


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Just now, OffensivelyPC said:

It's not like it matters who comes out ofthe AFC, they'll likely be crushed by whoever comes out of the NFC.  Patriots or Broncos, doesn't matter, neither of them can match up with the fire power of those teams.

Weirder things have happened in this league...

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2 minutes ago, dynasty13 said:

The interesting thing to watch in this game I think, is IF the Patriots go up early and that forced Peyton to throw more, does that lead to some turnovers? As a Patriots fan that's what I'm hoping for...if the Patriots can get up early then I like our chances. Years ago I would say the game is never over against Peyton no matter how ahead we may be...but now I think that if we force him to throw and get away from that run game a bit...I like our chances.

An early jump is key for both teams. Whoever can get up 7-0 if it happens is huge. If Denver can get up 7-0 and have the ball, they can start to run it a bunch.

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4 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

It's not like it matters who comes out ofthe AFC, they'll likely be crushed by whoever comes out of the NFC.  Patriots or Broncos, doesn't matter, neither of them can match up with the fire power of those teams.

I usually agree with you but in this case not so sure. IMO you can never count out Brady or Manning in any game. Regarding Denver it's not so much Manning, it's their nasty Defense too that can keep them in any game.

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2 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

I usually agree with you but in this case not so sure. IMO you can never count out Brady or Manning in any game. Regarding Denver it's not so much Manning, it's their nasty Defense too that can keep them in any game.

Denver's defense is nasty, and if they beat the Patriots, that will be a big reason why.  But the Panthers and Cardinals defense shouldn't to be trifled with either.  

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9 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

It's not like it matters who comes out ofthe AFC, they'll likely be crushed by whoever comes out of the NFC.  Patriots or Broncos, doesn't matter, neither of them can match up with the fire power of those teams.

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but is Ted Ginn Jr still the #1 receiver Newton throws to? I don't see either of these NFC teams as being dominant whatsoever.

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1 minute ago, Bad Morty said:

Correct me if I'm wrong here, but is Ted Ginn Jr still the #1 receiver Newton throws to? I don't see either of these NFC teams as being dominant whatsoever.

 

People are thinking Carolina is dominant because of what they did to the Seahawks but I saw a team let off the gas before the game was over and a Seattle team that clearly isn't the juggernaut they once were. Heck, they could barely eek out a win against the Vikings.

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9 minutes ago, Restored said:

 

People are thinking Carolina is dominant because of what they did to the Seahawks but I saw a team let off the gas before the game was over and a Seattle team that clearly isn't the juggernaut they once were. Heck, they could barely eek out a win against the Vikings.

I hate the prevent defense as much as anybody, but any team who goes in and stomps the defending NFC champs 35-0 in a half of football is dominant, I don't care what anyone says.  Name one other team in the conference championship that's done that.  Heck, any team that  made playoffs for that matter.

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3 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

I hate the prevent defense as much as anybody, but any team who goes in and stomps the defending NFC champs 35-0 in a half of football is dominant, I don't care what anyone says.  Name one other team in the conference championship that's done that.  Heck, any team that  made playoffs for that matter.

 

Dominant. For a half. The Panthers offense struggled mightily in the second half as did the defense. The Panthers are the most talented team out of the remaining bunch thats for sure but I'm not so sure they have the mental grit to get all the way through.

 

They've given up a number of big leads this year and have been lucky to win them. Don't be surprised if they get up 10-14 points before ARZ storms back and pulls off the win.

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4 minutes ago, Restored said:

 

Dominant. For a half. The Panthers offense struggled mightily in the second half as did the defense. The Panthers are the most talented team out of the remaining bunch thats for sure but I'm not so sure they have the mental grit to get all the way through. They've given up a number of big leads this year and have been lucky to win them. Don't be surprised if they get up 10-14 points before ARZ storms back and pulls off the win.

when you start the 2nd half up 35-0 your chances of losing are practically nil.  People focus way to much on what they didn't do in the 2nd half.  They did exactly what they were trying to do, eat up clock.  

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/113632/in-game-win-probability-seattle-seahawks-vs-carolina-panthers

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5 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

when you start the 2nd half up 35-0 your chances of losing are practically nil.  People focus way to much on what they didn't do in the 2nd half.  They did exactly what they were trying to do, eat up clock.  

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/113632/in-game-win-probability-seattle-seahawks-vs-carolina-panthers

 

It's what they've done in a number of the games they've had this year. All I'm saying is that it could come back to bite them this Sunday if they lead they build is slightly smaller.

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3 minutes ago, Restored said:

 

It's what they've done in a number of the games they've had this year. All I'm saying is that it could come back to bite them this Sunday if they lead they build is slightly smaller.

Well that's always a possibility.  But you play the odds, when the game is a little closer, you change your play calling.  The 2nd half Panthers offense had nothing to do with a struggling offense and everything to do with playcalling.  Defense you could say the same thing, really. .  Keep them on the field and from going out of bounds as much as possible. It was conservative (don't care what Rivera says, that's what it was), and when you're winning that much, it's fine.  It's when it gets closer and they keep with the conservative tactics is what I hate (and what you are ultimately getting at).  But ini the end, if you need an onside kick to have a chance at winning the game, your chances of winning are just a fraction above hopeless.

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1 minute ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Fine, they have a small chance.  Don't really care.  They're not as good as either team in the NFC, which is the point.

my guess is that if New England wins on Sunday, they would be installed as 2 point favorites over Carolina, 3 points over Az.

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2 minutes ago, Bad Morty said:

my guess is that if New England wins on Sunday, they would be installed as 2 point favorites over Carolina, 3 points over Az.

What Vegas does has nothing to do with who's the better team and who has the better matchups.  Also, your guess on it doesn't mean any more than my thoughts on who's better between the NFC Champ and Patriots.

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12 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

What Vegas does has nothing to do with who's the better team and who has the better matchups.  Also, your guess on it doesn't mean any more than my thoughts on who's better between the NFC Champ and Patriots.

 

A) I wouldn't say Vegas odds have NOTHING to do with who the better team is...for example, I'm pretty sure New England was favored all season long against teams they were clearly better than.

 

B) Did I say my guess meant more than yours?

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3 minutes ago, Bad Morty said:

 

A) I wouldn't say Vegas odds have NOTHING to do with who the better team is...for example, I'm pretty sure New England was favored all season long against teams they were clearly better than.

 

B) Did I say my guess meant more than yours?

I think if the Pats win they will be favored in the SB because they have Brady and are the Champs. If they are favored at Denver than they will be favored in the SB. If Denver wins, they will be the underdog IMO because Manning has a noodle arm and the Seahawks beat them by 30 2 years ago (sarcasm)

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Watching all sports channels this morning for four hours so far 100% of the hosts and guests are picking NE. Brady's quick release (2.1 seconds) is the key to negating the Denver heavy blitz. Also Manning's lack of a strong arm for long passes is the number two reason. Too many times in the past week "Manning is a shell of his one time self" has been said. Apparently Brady has not done well in Denver but no one is worried. I'm still pulling for a storybook ending to Manning's career assuming this is his last.  I just wonder if arm strength is the big issue if he will not try to build on that in the off season and try to return to Denver or another team. It would not shock me.

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Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Jeez me too. I cant believe not 1 person is picking Denver. I figured out of 20 analyst at least a few would, man how stunning. Peyton has to be laughing about now.

Agreed great motivator for Denver as if they needed one. 

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Just now, 2006Coltsbestever said:

If I was Denver I would use Von Miller to help out with whoever is taking Gronk. Von should just sag and play the middle plus he has great speed to cover the short passing. I would put Talib on Edleman and have Talib rough him up all day.

That gameplan works a little taste of own medicine.

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I have not followed the national media the last few days, but it looks like from the posts in this threat that a lot of them are picking the Pats.  Surely, anything can happen especially if Peyton returns to his old Sheriff form and lights things up.

 

With that said tho, one can understand where the analysts are coming from with their predictions.   Last year the Pats beat the Broncos, with a healthy Peyton, 43-21 albeit at home.  This year with 5-6 of our top players out or out during the game, the Pats had a 21-7 lead in the 4th qtr until our 3rd/4th string punt returner muffed a punt and gave life and momentum to the Broncos.  Then, as D13 mentioned, a few "interesting" calls at key times taking away third down conversions for us/long pass completions or extended Broncos drives and the game is in OT.

 

The question becomes is the 4th qtr of this year game an exception/can be repeated or is it the norm.  Given that we have many of our players back who missed December and that Denver game and we appeared to play healthy last weekend, some are thinking last years game and the three qtrs. in Denver this year are indicative of the relationship between the two teams.

 

Again, anything can happen on either side of the ball, and that is why they play the game.  But given the last 7 qtrs. of football between the two teams, one can see where the analysts are coming from.  

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43 minutes ago, Yehoodi said:

I have not followed the national media the last few days, but it looks like from the posts in this threat that a lot of them are picking the Pats.  Surely, anything can happen especially if Peyton returns to his old Sheriff form and lights things up.

 

With that said tho, one can understand where the analysts are coming from with their predictions.   Last year the Pats beat the Broncos, with a healthy Peyton, 43-21 albeit at home.  This year with 5-6 of our top players out or out during the game, the Pats had a 21-7 lead in the 4th qtr until our 3rd/4th string punt returner muffed a punt and gave life and momentum to the Broncos.  Then, as D13 mentioned, a few "interesting" calls at key times taking away third down conversions for us/long pass completions or extended Broncos drives and the game is in OT.

 

The question becomes is the 4th qtr of this year game an exception/can be repeated or is it the norm.  Given that we have many of our players back who missed December and that Denver game and we appeared to play healthy last weekend, some are thinking last years game and the three qtrs. in Denver this year are indicative of the relationship between the two teams.

 

Again, anything can happen on either side of the ball, and that is why they play the game.  But given the last 7 qtrs. of football between the two teams, one can see where the analysts are coming from.  

Everyone is picking the Pats and that isn't an exaggeration so you guys are home free. They are the one's that are making the big bucks and are on TV so they should know. Not only are they all picking the Pats, most of them laughed about it and are picking them big. Big as in they laugh about it. Here's a list so far picking the Patriots:

Mike Greenberg (ESPN) would need 9 points to take the Broncos

Mike Golic (ESPN) would need 9 points to take the Broncos

Skip Bayless (ESPN)

Stephen A Smith (ESPN) Laughed about it

Darren Woodson (ESPN) Laughed about it

Teddy Bruschi (ESPN) of course, what else is he going to say

Pablo Torre (ESPN)

Kevin Blackistone (ESPN)

Bomani Jones (ESPN) Laughed about it

Tony Kornheiser (ESPN)

Mark Scherelth (ESPN), MR Bronco doesn't even pick the Broncos

Michael Irvin (NFL Channel)

Marshal Faulk (NFL Channel)

Deion Sanders (NFL Channel) Laughed about it

Mo Jones-Drew (NFL Channel) Laughed about it

Willie McGinest (NFL Channel) of course haha 

So I guess why even play the game haha It's over already according to these guys.

People picking the Broncos:

nobody and I am serious. It's 16-0 in favor of the Pats and these are basically the people that cover everything on those channel's. Not even Jeff Saturday on ESPN had the nads to pick the Broncos, he just said they had a chance if Peyton plays well and he loves Peyton.

 

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Pete Priscoe picked Denver, so there's that. As usual, I think the media are going way over the top with it, but that's what they do. They are making this out like it's going to be a mid-season Pats/Jaguars game, which is ridiculous. I think a lot of what you are seeing is the boomerang effect from how much love was being thrown at KC last week. That team was talked up so much (and understandably so given the 11 game win streak and the the beat down they laid on Houston the week before) that it's making the Pats relatively easy win over them seem a lot more significant than it was.

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My gut says Pats, as much as I,don't like it. They just tend to execute the best when it matters most and you Brady isn't gonna make critical mistakes. I worry unfortunately Manning will throw critical pick or two that NE will get 10-14 points off of and that will be the difference. 

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Every year, I shoot myself in the foot with SB winners by saying "anyone but..."

 

A few years ago, in 2009, I said "anyone but the Saints..."

 

Last year, I said "anyone but the Patriots..."

 

This year, I said "anyone but the Panthers..." :dunno:

 

For the record, I am not a soothsayer or Cleo :)

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28 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Everyone is picking the Pats and that isn't an exaggeration so you guys are home free. They are the one's that are making the big bucks and are on TV so they should know. Not only are they all picking the Pats, most of them laughed about it and are picking them big. Big as in they laugh about it. Here's a list so far picking the Patriots:

Mike Greenberg (ESPN) would need 9 points to take the Broncos

Mike Golic (ESPN) would need 9 points to take the Broncos

Skip Bayless (ESPN)

Stephen A Smith (ESPN) Laughed about it

Darren Woodson (ESPN) Laughed about it

Teddy Bruschi (ESPN) of course, what else is he going to say

Pablo Torre (ESPN)

Kevin Blackistone (ESPN)

Bomani Jones (ESPN) Laughed about it

Tony Kornheiser (ESPN)

Mark Scherelth (ESPN), MR Bronco doesn't even pick the Broncos

Michael Irvin (NFL Channel)

Marshal Faulk (NFL Channel)

Deion Sanders (NFL Channel) Laughed about it

Mo Jones-Drew (NFL Channel) Laughed about it

Willie McGinest (NFL Channel) of course haha 

So I guess why even play the game haha It's over already according to these guys.

People picking the Broncos:

nobody and I am serious. It's 16-0 in favor of the Pats and these are basically the people that cover everything on those channel's. Not even Jeff Saturday on ESPN had the nads to pick the Broncos, he just said they had a chance if Peyton plays well and he loves Peyton.

 

 

Wow 16 of 16. 

 

I really do not follow people's predictions unless there is some basis on the prediction.  Given that Pats beat KC, seem healthy, Broncos D allowed Pitt to move the ball, and Peyton is somewhat of an unknown and given his year this year, some are basing their predictions on some of these points is my guess, but again I have not heard or watch the national media in the last few days. . 

 

Given the above all those could change Sunday or they could not or somewhere in between. 

 

Gonna be fun on Sunday.  :popcorn:   

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9 minutes ago, Bad Morty said:

Pete Priscoe picked Denver, so there's that. As usual, I think the media are going way over the top with it, but that's what they do. They are making this out like it's going to be a mid-season Pats/Jaguars game, which is ridiculous. I think a lot of what you are seeing is the boomerang effect from how much love was being thrown at KC last week. That team was talked up so much (and understandably so given the 11 game win streak and the the beat down they laid on Houston the week before) that it's making the Pats relatively easy win over them seem a lot more significant than it was.

Who's that. I am being dead honest, I have never heard of him. He probably lives in Colorado haha He doesn't work for ESPN or the NFL Network I know that because I would've heard of him. Until someone picks Denver from those 2 it's irrelevant who picks them IMO. I pick Denver too but it's irrelevant.

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2 minutes ago, Yehoodi said:

 

Wow 16 of 16. 

 

I really do not follow people's predictions unless there is some basis on the prediction.  Given that Pats beat KC, seem healthy, Broncos D allowed Pitt to move the ball, and Peyton is somewhat of an unknown and given his year this year, some are basing their predictions on some of these points is my guess, but again I have not heard or watch the national media in the last few days. . 

 

Given the above all those could change Sunday or they could not or somewhere in between. 

 

Gonna be fun on Sunday.  :popcorn:   

Yeah it looks great for you guys regarding the ol predictions.

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2 hours ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Jeez me too. I cant believe not 1 person is picking Denver. I figured out of 20 analyst at least a few would, man how stunning. Peyton has to be laughing about now.

 

This reminds me of the Colts v. Ravens several years back on our way to the 2006-07 SB. No one, and I mean no one picked Indianapolis to win. Our defense was rated last against the pass & not very good against the run. That was Adam Vinateiri & the defense who won that game & Bob Sanders igniting it throughout the way to the SB.

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