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Patriots favored over Broncos by 3.5 points


chad72

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52 minutes ago, 12to13 said:

I don't see how the broncos can win honestly. Peyton didn't look too hot.

 

Here is the thing I did not realize till after the game. It was mighty windy, with winds gusting up to 30 mph. That is why I have to commend McManus to be able to kick in those winds and for Peyton to grind it out. We all know how Peyton's throws wobble when it is windy. That is why, to me, it was a good performance from Peyton given the windy conditions, how patient he was and did not commit any turnovers.

 

If the conditions are not windy in the AFCCG, I think the Patriots and some fans might end up being surprised if Peyton hits 30 points, which I think he will.

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45 minutes ago, freedomfighter said:

Not a surprise. You have to favor NE in this game with their full offense on the field and Manning unable to score TDs. This is maybe one of the biggest mis-matches in a champ game that I can remember. 

the Colts vs the Pats in last year's Championship game was a bigger mis-match then this one.

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I actually thought Peyton played Good. I would Grade him out as a B performance. It wasn't a Great performance as in an A performance because the Broncos did stall on too many drives but a lot of that had to do with his WR drops. I counted at least 7 and others on here were saying there were 9 dropped passes that should've been caught. If Peyton plays the way he played last week and his WR's make a couple more plays to turn drive's into 7's instead of 3's then the Broncos have a decent shot to win. The Broncos have Great Defense and SPteams as well. Having HFA is huge too. It doesn't bother me that the Broncos are underdogs, it's only 3.5 so Vegas isn't too confident that the Pats will run away with this. If they were than the Pats would be favored by 7 or more. I honestly think this will even motivate the Broncos more, this and the fact I have yet to see 1 person on ESPN or the NFL Channel pick them to win. So far the people picking the Pats are Skip and Stephen A, Darren Woodson, Teddy Bruschi, Mike Greenberg, Mike Golic = all ESPN people. Deion, Marshall, Irvin, Jones-Drew = all NFC Channel people. People picking the Broncos = NONE.

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25 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

Here is the thing I did not realize till after the game. It was mighty windy, with winds gusting up to 30 mph. That is why I have to commend McManus to be able to kick in those winds and for Peyton to grind it out. We all know how Peyton's throws wobble when it is windy. That is why, to me, it was a good performance from Peyton given the windy conditions, how patient he was and did not commit any turnovers.

 

If the conditions are not windy in the AFCCG, I think the Patriots and some fans might end up being surprised if Peyton hits 30 points, which I think he will.

 

 30?! Denver has scored 30 in regulation time once all year (2nd game of the season). The Pats have allowed 30 in regulation twice all year. If Denver is going to win this game, it's going to take holding the Pats to under 20. If Chris Harris is as banged up as he appeared the other day, that's going to be a tall order. If the Pats get up into the mid 20's Denver is in trouble.

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38 minutes ago, Bad Morty said:

 

 30?! Denver has scored 30 in regulation time once all year (2nd game of the season). The Pats have allowed 30 in regulation twice all year. If Denver is going to win this game, it's going to take holding the Pats to under 20. If Chris Harris is as banged up as he appeared the other day, that's going to be a tall order. If the Pats get up into the mid 20's Denver is in trouble.

 

I agree with that, it is hard to beat Brady when he scores 30 in a playoff game, only game he has lost is the 34-38 2006 AFCCG vs Peyton, I think. But I just don't think they have to be mutually exclusive. Besides, Pats did allow 30 to Denver the last time they met (though you will tell me they were banged up and I understand that, not going to deny).

 

That is why they play the game. We will see how things play out on Sunday.

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I think Vegas looked at this past weekend games and feels that the Pats will be in similar form that they were pre-Thanksgiving.  This is basically the most healthy we have been since that time.  Time will tell if BB's apparent theory of treating the last two games of the season like preseason games for health reason will pay off.

 

Denver did win on Sunday but their ability to move the ball is not great.  Surely Denver can turn it on this weekend and the story will be different.  Should be a fun game on Sunday.  :popcorn:

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47 minutes ago, Bad Morty said:

 

 30?! Denver has scored 30 in regulation time once all year (2nd game of the season). The Pats have allowed 30 in regulation twice all year. If Denver is going to win this game, it's going to take holding the Pats to under 20. If Chris Harris is as banged up as he appeared the other day, that's going to be a tall order. If the Pats get up into the mid 20's Denver is in trouble.

What was the score to first game between Denver and New England again?

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1 hour ago, freedomfighter said:

Not a surprise. You have to favor NE in this game with their full offense on the field and Manning unable to score TDs. This is maybe one of the biggest mis-matches in a champ game that I can remember. 

You must not have a very good memory. Patriots actually lost in Denver earlier this season. If anything last year was the biggest mismatch.

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8 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

I agree with that, it is hard to beat Brady when he scores 30 in a playoff game, only game he has lost is the 34-38 2006 AFCCG vs Peyton, I think. But I just don't think they have to be mutually exclusive. Besides, Pats did allow 30 to Denver the last time they met (though you will tell me they were banged up and I understand that, not going to deny).

 

That is why they play the game. We will see how things play out on Sunday.

I think if Denver can hold the Patriots to less than 24 they can win. If they give up more than 24 they will be in trouble. I think Peyton can put up 24 points, Denver scored 23 last week and was held to FG's for the most part. To me 24 is the number, If Tom goes for 30 in this one, it's over IMO.

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2 minutes ago, jvan1973 said:

Really,   the score hasn't been determined yet has it? 

 

I thought you were talking about last year's game as you were responding to the poster's comment about last year's game and were not specific in your post which game you were talking about.  

 

I agree with respect to this up coming game that there have been games that have ended more lopsided than what this up coming games appears to be on Sunday.  

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3 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

To add to that Denver isn't overmatched here despite how many seem to think. I think whoever wins the game will win by less than 7 points.

 

The game can go in a number of directions to be honest, imo.   Pats could make boo-boos like they have in the past in Denver, Peyton could play like he did against GB, along with the D, on one hand.

 

On the other hand if the Pats can play like pre-Thanksgiving and do not turn the ball over and Denver has some of the struggles like this past Sunday (drops, not moving the ball well with given field position, D allowing opponent to move the ball), then things could swing the other way.

 

And of course we could get a combination of those things and have a closer game.  gotta be fun.

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3 minutes ago, Yehoodi said:

 

The game can go in a number of directions to be honest, imo.   Pats could make boo-boos like they have in the past in Denver, Peyton could play like he did against GB, along with the D, on one hand.

 

On the other hand if the Pats can play like pre-Thanksgiving and do not turn the ball over and Denver has some of the struggles like this past Sunday (drops, not moving the ball well with given field position, D allowing opponent to move the ball), then things could swing the other way.

 

And of course we could get a combination of those things and have a closer game.  gotta be fun.

Yeah it can go either way I agree. I see something like 27-24 in either direction. Of course I am rolling with Denver because I cant give up on my before season SB pick and I like Peyton but this game here could go in 100 different directions depending on how Peyton plays, Turnovers by both teams, and lucky breaks as well. The weather forecast looks to be good so far. It is showing around 50 before gametime with little wind and no rain.

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30 minutes ago, chad72 said:

 

I agree with that, it is hard to beat Brady when he scores 30 in a playoff game, only game he has lost is the 34-38 2006 AFCCG vs Peyton, I think. But I just don't think they have to be mutually exclusive. Besides, Pats did allow 30 to Denver the last time they met (though you will tell me they were banged up and I understand that, not going to deny).

 

That is why they play the game. We will see how things play out on Sunday.

not just that they were banged up, but that they only scored 24 in regulation. Believe me...I'm not one of these "Pas are going to DESTROY Denver!!" types...I just think based on what I've seen of both teams that the Pats are better than Denver and the better team usually wins. Not always, but usually. My only question about the Pats was answered Sunday, and that is "could they just flip the switch with guys coming back who hadn't played in a while"...they did, and now those guys have game reps under their belts, so I expect the Pats will look like they did in the midst of the 10-0 start.

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The Patriots are Superbowl champs; it makes sense that a Superbowl winner would be favored the next year., no matter who they are.

 

I'm not sure if this is good news or bad for the Broncos. Being underdogs could get them more fired up. but it could also provide some adversity in that they aren't considered as talented overall as New England.

 

I haven't figured out if homefield advantage means much. The Wildcard round proved that it doesn't really matter, but the Divisional round showed that the home teams do have an advantage. It's not consistent, so I have nothing to go on in that sense. I guess it comes down to which team wants it more and makes less mistakes.

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17 minutes ago, Bad Morty said:

not just that they were banged up, but that they only scored 24 in regulation. Believe me...I'm not one of these "Pas are going to DESTROY Denver!!" types...I just think based on what I've seen of both teams that the Pats are better than Denver and the better team usually wins. Not always, but usually. My only question about the Pats was answered Sunday, and that is "could they just flip the switch with guys coming back who hadn't played in a while"...they did, and now those guys have game reps under their belts, so I expect the Pats will look like they did in the midst of the 10-0 start.

 

Yeah, that is the thing. You never know how an offensive rhythm is going to look any given Sunday.

 

One week, it might be great and the next week mediocre and vice versa. We will just have to see how it plays out. Peyton is a rhythm kind of guy, IMO, and explains why he has so many 1-and-dones with his offense underachieving in divisional rounds. He takes a while to get rhythm. We will find out if there is more rhythm to work off now.

 

In home AFCCG, he has scored 38, 30 and 26 points for a 3-0 AFCCG home record in 2006, 2009 and 2013 respectively. 

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1 minute ago, Bad Morty said:

 

I said in my original post that the Broncos had only scored 30 IN REGULATION TIME once. They did NOT score 30 in regulation time in that Pats game.

You also said that Denver must hold the Pats to under 20 in order to win.  Clearly, you weren't paying attention.

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Just now, OffensivelyPC said:

You also said that Denver must hold the Pats to under 20 in order to win.  Clearly, you weren't paying attention.

 

ok fair point. I thought you were trying to say that they scored 30 versus the Pats. Yes - they did score 24 on them in that game. My larger point is simply this...Denver is clearly a team that is built to win on defense. They aren't likely to win a high scoring game. I said if the Pats get into the mid-twenties, that's trouble for Denver.

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Just now, Bad Morty said:

 

ok fair point. I thought you were trying to say that they scored 30 versus the Pats. Yes - they did score 24 on them in that game. My larger point is simply this...Denver is clearly a team that is built to win on defense. They aren't likely to win a high scoring game. I said if the Pats get into the mid-twenties, that's trouble for Denver.

Eh, both these teams are fully capable of winning a shootout.  If you think 24 points is going to win you this game, I'd say you're underestimating your opponent.

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2 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

Eh, both these teams are fully capable of winning a shootout.  If you think 24 points is going to win you this game, I'd say you're underestimating your opponent.

Most Pats fans seem to think Peyton is really washed up and done. Denver just scored 23 last week and was held to 5 FG's without a Defensive TD in doing so. The media seems to think the same thing about Peyton. I wonder if any of these people watched the Steelers game where Peyton threw at least 4 or 5 lasers for 1st down's and had no Turnovers with poor wind conditions even.

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1 minute ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Most Pats fans seem to think Peyton is really washed up and done. Denver just scored 23 last week and was held to 5 FG's without a Defensive TD in doing so. The media seems to think the same thing about Peyton. I wonder if any of these people watched the Steelers game where Peyton threw at least 4 or 5 lasers for 1st down's and had no Turnovers with poor wind conditions even.

It wasn't just the weather and cold (which are almost low scoring affairs anyway, i.e. seahawks/vikings the week before), but his receivers were dropping passes on 3rd and long and at the most crucial times.  I mean drops are always bad, but these drops were some of the most ill timed drive killing drops.  

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2 minutes ago, OffensivelyPC said:

It wasn't just the weather and cold (which are almost low scoring affairs anyway, i.e. seahawks/vikings the week before), but his receivers were dropping passes on 3rd and long and at the most crucial times.  I mean drops are always bad, but these drops were some of the most ill timed drive killing drops.  

I think Denver can put up 27, I wont stretch it past that but their Defense is definitely capable of holding the Pats to around 24 even if Tom plays well. If Tom plays great that is a different story but he generally doesn't in Denver.

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4 minutes ago, 2006Coltsbestever said:

Most Pats fans seem to think Peyton is really washed up and done. Denver just scored 23 last week and was held to 5 FG's without a Defensive TD in doing so. The media seems to think the same thing about Peyton. I wonder if any of these people watched the Steelers game where Peyton threw at least 4 or 5 lasers for 1st down's and had no Turnovers with poor wind conditions even.

The Steelers defense was arguably the worst of the 12 playoff teams. I recall them having a couple of drops as well on what should have been easy picks. The opinion people have of where Manning is at right now is backed up by stats. He was statistically the worst QB in football this year. He had a 67.6 QBR, he threw 17 picks and only 9 TD's. Can he summon the past and have a great game sunday? Sure...I suppose. But don't make it out like the people who think he's done are coming out of left field. http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/byposition?*=QB

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