Jump to content
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts Fan Forum

Colts 2016 Draft Approach/Team Needs


Recommended Posts

How do you guys feel like the Colts should approach the 2016 draft? I'm thinking pass rusher in the 1st round and O-line in the 2nd and 3rd. Maybe we get a running back early to be our long term bell cow with Frank nearing retirement? What are you guys' thoughts?

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm pretty much in agreement with this. I'd ideally like a pass rusher and 2 OLine in the first 3 rounds. Obviously it depends on how the draft plays out, as we have definite needs in the secondary as well so if there's a stud available there, we shouldn't pass just to get an OLB/OL.  We have to try and cover these areas in FA as well so that we aren't forced in any one direction in the draft.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, 12isthenew18 said:

See free agency first. Plus If we don't make the playoffs I wanna lose out for a better pick

I could see them picking top 15 and if they lose out possibly top 10. Great opportunity to get a defensive star like Jaylon Smith or Vernon Hargreaves. Jalen Ramsey, Myles Jack, and trading down for more picks are other good options as well. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

We have needs on the O-line and every level of the defense. We should have enough cash to do at least a few things in free  agency. This year's draft looks strong for centers and cornerbacks, I'd like us to keep our eyes open for those in rounds 2-4 especially. The defense needs more explosive play makers and the offense needs another road-grader or two.

Link to post
Share on other sites

 

From my perspective,  this steam still has lots and lots of needs.    So, some will be addressed in FA and the rest in the draft.... 

 

For me,  the need is this....

 

1.    OLB    (need pass rush)

 

2.    OT      (need a right tackle)

 

3.   CB      (Can't have enough of these)

 

4.   DL      (need to be bigger and stronger here)

 

5.  S         (need to get younger here)

 

But,  we have other needs....   C & G....  and those two I'd like addressed in FA.    And I think we need another quality corner to upgrade from Toler.    I don't see us getting one in the 3rd round.     And more help needed at Inside linebacker.     And perhaps another running back where we lack depth.

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Really, really agree that rush OLB is our #1 need going into the off-season.  I see us paying up for one in FA (though everyone needs to get Von Miller out of their heads, 'cause he ain't goin' anywhere) and using our 1st rounder on the position.  Say, we pay Bruce Irvin a ton to come over to us and we draft Leonard Floyd.  Irvin can play SAM after next year if Floyd is a hit.

 

As far as OL goes, I really want Brandon Brooks of the Texans in FA as the new RG, and I'm leaning towards a FA placeholder at center too.  Even though it's a good draft year at center, maybe I'd want to bring in someone like 32-y.o. Lyle Sendlein from the Cardinals, and let Harrison and Holmes battle it out to show who is the more versatile back-up.  This would give us immediate improvement, and push center-of-the-future out until next year as a draft need.  As far as RT goes, I think the Reitz/Good combo works for now.

 

After the 1st, draft priorities go: CB, RB, S, OT (swing guy to develop).

Link to post
Share on other sites

I feel like we need to go after veteran starter O-lineman in Free Agency. We likely wont draft high enough to select one of the top tackles and there is not a guard/center worth drafting in the first round and maybe not even the top of the second. Relying on rookies along the O-line is risky. I'm of the approach that we get at least two starters for line via FA and draft the best defensive playmaker available. Pass rusher/Corner or just a flat out stud like Jaylon Smith if available.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, DougDew said:

1. Pass rusher/OLB

2. CB

3. Pass rusher/OLB

4. Interior OL

1. Pass rush all day long at #1. This is a desperate need for this team and they likely cannot afford a top pass rusher in free agency. The draft is where they have to look.

2. CB. Eventual Davis running mate but for now, a slot replacement for Butler.

3. Center or Guard.

4. Guard or Center.

Link to post
Share on other sites

This roster is void of talent that you've got to take the best player available approach. I've never understood the people who say "We need to take THIS POSITION in the 1st round, THESE POSITIONS in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, etc." You cannot map out a draft like that. Would you really have the 6th or 7th best player available at some position over the best player at another position? I don't think so.

Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Pagano's Realtor said:

This roster is void of talent that you've got to take the best player available approach. I've never understood the people who say "We need to take THIS POSITION in the 1st round, THESE POSITIONS in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, etc." You cannot map out a draft like that. Would you really have the 6th or 7th best player available at some position over the best player at another position? I don't think so.

There hardly ever is one player that stands out over three or four others at the same pick.  If similarly valued players are at, say; OLB, LT, TE, or RB, you take the player that fills a hole in the roster more than the others.  In my example, I would take the OLB over any of the other players, even if the other players are graded SLIGHTLY higher.  Its BPA within a range.

 

If you draft strictly BPA at every pick, you might end up with 7 TEs.

Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, DougDew said:

There hardly ever is one player that stands out over three or four others at the same pick.  If similarly valued players are at, say; OLB, LT, TE, or RB, you take the player that fills a hole in the roster more than the others.  In my example, I would take the OLB over any of the other players, even if the other players are graded SLIGHTLY higher.  Its BPA within a range.

 

If you draft strictly BPA at every pick, you might end up with 7 TEs.

 

Clearly I'm not saying take someone every round regardless of position, but it is asinine to go into the draft thinking "We should draft this position, regardless of what is available." I think we both agree that it's about finding who players who fit the scheme and fill a need but you certainly have to be flexible.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Pagano's Realtor said:

 

Clearly I'm not saying take someone every round regardless of position, but it is asinine to go into the draft thinking "We should draft this position, regardless of what is available." I think we both agree that it's about finding who players who fit the scheme and fill a need but you certainly have to be flexible.

I think the biggest need is pass rushing OLB.  I agree with you, but there are usually several available with good value every draft in the top 20,  so I would have no hesitation in saying that the Colts should draft one in round one.  It would be surprising if one with good value isn't there when the Colts pick. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Pagano's Realtor said:

This roster is void of talent that you've got to take the best player available approach. I've never understood the people who say "We need to take THIS POSITION in the 1st round, THESE POSITIONS in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, etc." You cannot map out a draft like that. Would you really have the 6th or 7th best player available at some position over the best player at another position? I don't think so.

 

47 minutes ago, Pagano's Realtor said:

 

Clearly I'm not saying take someone every round regardless of position, but it is asinine to go into the draft thinking "We should draft this position, regardless of what is available." I think we both agree that it's about finding who players who fit the scheme and fill a need but you certainly have to be flexible.

 

+2

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Pagano's Realtor said:

 

Clearly I'm not saying take someone every round regardless of position, but it is asinine to go into the draft thinking "We should draft this position, regardless of what is available." I think we both agree that it's about finding who players who fit the scheme and fill a need but you certainly have to be flexible.

 

Certainly you can't do what some posters here are trying to do, with the whole "pass rusher in round 1, corner back in round 2, o-lineman in round 3" etc. 

 

You can (and probably should) go into a draft planning on keeping your eyes open for someone who will help you in a particular phase of the game. But you can't force it like that. You never know who is going to be on the board, you can't really make it a habit of passing up impact players to fill needs. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

As others have said, give up whatever you have to in order to get Jaylon Smith. He's gonna be an absolute star. Walden is the only semi-athletic linebacker we have. We're way too slow at LB. Smith is an increible athlete and fantastic tackler too. #1 priority imo.

Link to post
Share on other sites
On December 22, 2015 at 7:36 PM, DougDew said:

I think the biggest need is pass rushing OLB.  I agree with you, but there are usually several available with good value every draft in the top 20,  so I would have no hesitation in saying that the Colts should draft one in round one.  It would be surprising if one with good value isn't there when the Colts pick. 

There is?

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/21/2015 at 11:52 AM, DougDew said:

1. Pass rusher/OLB

2. CB

3. Pass rusher/OLB

4. Interior OL

I must be missing something here. We have had 2 QBs hurt multiple times this year( one being the face of our franchise) because our OL sucks and you rate OL fourth in area of need? I would agree with Pass Rusher as #1 because a good PR is an impact player and they would more than likely rate higher on the board than an OL in the first. After that i would definitely prioritize OL in round 2 and 3 unless someone outstanding fell to us. We have more holes to fill than we have draft choices so I would rather shore up the OL first and foremost and then concentrate on other positions later in the draft or FA or next year. We can't solve all our problems at once.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, hoosierhawk said:

I must be missing something here. We have had 2 QBs hurt multiple times this year( one being the face of our franchise) because our OL sucks and you rate OL fourth in area of need? I would agree with Pass Rusher as #1 because a good PR is an impact player and they would more than likely rate higher on the board than an OL in the first. After that i would definitely prioritize OL in round 2 and 3 unless someone outstanding fell to us. We have more holes to fill than we have draft choices so I would rather shore up the OL first and foremost and then concentrate on other positions later in the draft or FA or next year. We can't solve all our problems at once.

If you read the forum regularly, it has been pretty much concluded that Luck was hurt by his own scrambling...and before that, by holding on to the ball too long.  The OL did not get him killed.  The OL was good enough after Herremans and Louis were replaced (and the Colts stopped facing the Bills and the Jets). 

 

With the same OL as Luck, MH barely got touched in his first few games because he got rid of the ball quickly, something that defenses were not prepared for after watching Luck's film. (Watt did nothing against our OL the first Texans game...nothing).  Then as defenses figured out MH provides no deep ball threat, they sat on the short routes.  That's when he started to take a beating...when not enough WRs could get open on the shorter routes. 

 

But his most recent big hit was due to Harrison whiffing his block on a three man rush.  Any C on any other pro roster could have probably made the block that he missed. The problems with the interior OL is primarily at C.  Most teams can find a good C in the 3rd round or later.  Holmes is a decent C...but with bad ankles apparently.

 

OTOH, the Colts have no pass rusher.  None.  You cannot win in this league if you cannot rush the passer.  Cole, Werner, Walden, Mathis and Newsome ALL stink as pass rushers.  The Colts need to find at least two pass rushers that are better than the best one they have now (probably Mathis...still).  Newsome was a 5th rounder.  Can't find a decent pass rusher past the third round, IMO.

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, DougDew said:

If you read the forum regularly, it has been pretty much concluded that Luck was hurt by his own scrambling...and before that, by holding on to the ball too long.  The OL did not get him killed.  The OL was good enough after Herremans and Louis were replaced (and the Colts stopped facing the Bills and the Jets). 

 

With the same OL as Luck, MH barely got touched in his first few games because he got rid of the ball quickly, something that defenses were not prepared for after watching Luck's film. (Watt did nothing against our OL the first Texans game...nothing).  Then as defenses figured out MH provides no deep ball threat, they sat on the short routes.  That's when he started to take a beating...when not enough WRs could get open on the shorter routes. 

 

But his most recent big hit was due to Harrison whiffing his block on a three man rush.  Any C on any other pro roster could have probably made the block that he missed. The problems with the interior OL is primarily at C.  Most teams can find a good C in the 3rd round or later.  Holmes is a decent C...but with bad ankles apparently.

 

OTOH, the Colts have no pass rusher.  None.  You cannot win in this league if you cannot rush the passer.  Cole, Werner, Walden, Mathis and Newsome ALL stink as pass rushers.  The Colts need to find at least two pass rushers that are better than the best one they have now (probably Mathis...still).  Newsome was a 5th rounder.  Can't find a decent pass rusher past the third round, IMO.

Keep telling yourself that the OL is fine.

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, hoosierhawk said:

Keep telling yourself that the OL is fine.

Well, it was fine when it was AC,JM,KH,HT, and JR....but  C can certainly be upgraded. 

 

But the thread is about priorities.  Neither Mathis, Cole, Walden, Newsome, and Werner can win any battle one on one.  That's pathetic for pass rushing.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not sure the O-line was fine with those 5 you mention but it was certainly better than the current rag tag bunch.  

As for justifying a pass rushing OLB,.....a team can mask a few deficiencies in the defensive backfield if they can muster some pressure on the QB. The Colts are terrible at that, and therefore their less than stellar CBs, Toler and Butler, are getting killed. So I agree with you on priorities; pass rush. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

DD, I do read this regularly but sorry, I don't base my conclusions from opinions on this site only. i make my conclusions from watching games and film, reading newspapers and other articles and listening to and reading NFL analysts and reporters and also draft projections. i have seldom heard any say our OL is fine. i hear on a regular basis that Grigson has failed totally in protecting Luck even though he supposedly has the note on his desk that "Protect 12". i guess we can agree to disagree on this.

I did say i would go for a difference maker pass rusher in the 1st as there are very few OL that would deserve

1st round grades that would still be around when the Colts draft.

Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, hoosierhawk said:

DD, I do read this regularly but sorry, I don't base my conclusions from opinions on this site only. i make my conclusions from watching games and film, reading newspapers and other articles and listening to and reading NFL analysts and reporters and also draft projections. i have seldom heard any say our OL is fine. i hear on a regular basis that Grigson has failed totally in protecting Luck even though he supposedly has the note on his desk that "Protect 12". i guess we can agree to disagree on this.

I did say i would go for a difference maker pass rusher in the 1st as there are very few OL that would deserve

1st round grades that would still be around when the Colts draft.

 

Would like to add to the OL situation. 

1. our QBs have been hit over 100 times this year. Most in NFL.

2. Have ranked top four in QB hits last four years.

3. Have not had a 1,000 rusher since 2007. 

4. Have not had a 100 yd rusher last 54 games.

5. T Richardson had better per rush attempt last year than Gore has this year.

6. Gore averaging almost a yard less per carry this year than career average.

 

Just sayn!

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
On December 23, 2015 at 1:03 PM, DougDew said:

If you read the forum regularly, it has been pretty much concluded that Luck was hurt by his own scrambling...and before that, by holding on to the ball too long.  The OL did not get him killed.  The OL was good enough after Herremans and Louis were replaced (and the Colts stopped facing the Bills and the Jets). 

 

With the same OL as Luck, MH barely got touched in his first few games because he got rid of the ball quickly, something that defenses were not prepared for after watching Luck's film. (Watt did nothing against our OL the first Texans game...nothing).  Then as defenses figured out MH provides no deep ball threat, they sat on the short routes.  That's when he started to take a beating...when not enough WRs could get open on the shorter routes. 

 

But his most recent big hit was due to Harrison whiffing his block on a three man rush.  Any C on any other pro roster could have probably made the block that he missed. The problems with the interior OL is primarily at C.  Most teams can find a good C in the 3rd round or later.  Holmes is a decent C...but with bad ankles apparently.

 

OTOH, the Colts have no pass rusher.  None.  You cannot win in this league if you cannot rush the passer.  Cole, Werner, Walden, Mathis and Newsome ALL stink as pass rushers.  The Colts need to find at least two pass rushers that are better than the best one they have now (probably Mathis...still).  Newsome was a 5th rounder.  Can't find a decent pass rusher past the third round, IMO.

Can't find a decent pass rusher after the 3rd?! We found Mathis in the 5th, and I thought Newsome did pretty well last year. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Doesn't usually work like that. Mathis is the exception, not the rule. The best pass rushers in the league now are 1st-3rd round picks. Houston and Watt are 1st rounders. Khalil Mack and Von Miller are 1st rounders. Demarcus Ware, etc...

 

4 hours ago, nerukamo said:

Can't find a decent pass rusher after the 3rd?! We found Mathis in the 5th, and I thought Newsome did pretty well last year. 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, nerukamo said:

Can't find a decent pass rusher after the 3rd?! We found Mathis in the 5th, and I thought Newsome did pretty well last year. 

I should have said..."unless you get lucky".  Hoping to get lucky is not a good offseason strategy.  And frankly, Newsome is one of those guys that needs to be upgraded this offseason, IMO (hopefully along with 2 or 3 more of the currently rostered OLBs)

Link to post
Share on other sites

Austin Blythe

Position C School Iowa

Height6' 3"Weight290 lbs

Class RS Senior Number

63

 

Jason Spriggs

Position OT School Indiana

Height6' 7"Weight305 lbs

Class Senior Number

78

 

 

 

Joshua Garnett

Position OG School  Stanford

Height6' 5"Weight325 lbs

ClassSeniorNumber51

Quote

 

need protect  luck first.

 

 

 

 

then defence

Edit

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Thread of the Week

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Here's a statistical analysis for return on investment of our draft picks done by PFF: https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-historical-draft-success-for-all-32-nfl-teams   The analysis is based on PFF's WAR metric(wins above replacement).    I won't quote the whole thing, but if you are interested, it's worth checking out the whole article with all explanations about their graphs. I will just post the main graphs with what they show...    First... Total WAR added by those 4 classes since 2017:     Colts are at no. 11 in the league and the Chiefs are no. 1 thanks mainly to Mahomes. It's interesting to see that ALL of the teams with good young QBs drafted in that period are in the top 10 - Chiefs(Mahomes), Ravens(Lamar), Texans(Watson), Bills(Allen), Browns(Mayfield).   Also worth pointing out that the top 2 teams are the 2 teams in this year's Superbowl, which underlines the importance of the draft towards building a winning team. And the Texans' value is derived almost single-handedly by Watson - the picks other than Watson have contributed negative WAR combined for the Texans.    The next graph is what PFF calls "draft consistency". It includes not just the WAR, but it weighs it based on draft position and on-field position. Here's where the Colts do very very well:     The Colts are the best team at draft consistency in the last 4 years. An interesting tidbit from the discussion in the article here is that Mahomes has had total WAR of 11 for those 4 years(best QB - 99.99 percentile drafted at no. 10), while the projected WAR for Nelson(best guard drafted in top 10 - 99.99 percentile) is just 1.6WAR. This just comes to show just how much more valuable QB is than even a generational guard. Here's what PFF writes about Colts' draft consistency and why they come 1st in that metric:     The third graph is weighing the WAR production by round(the example given - top 10 pick succeeding in the 90th percentile usually gives you about 2.0 WAR, while 90th percentile success for a 7th round pick gives you just about 0.2WAR.). Dot's size indicates the weight(round) of each pick :     Colts again rank very well at no. 2 in the league here.     And here's the last graph in which they take into account positional value:     Still the Colts rank in the top 5.    And finally they ask the question - does that mean that certain GMs are better than others at evaluating draft eligible players and the answer is interesting...    You can read the rationale on the link above... 
    • quick update, wife is doing much better and while some side effects still linger, she's up and moving and even voluntarily went back to work after her doctor approved it.
    • Charles / Christian whoever Mr C. Darrisaw ftw lol guess I need more coffee myself.  Then again I did leave my reading glasses elsewhere last night...   Bengals draft history of #1 picks and ending up on IR or out for long periods of time was the storyline here within 6 of the past years.  Odds don't look good for year #7 if you are superstitious. The Bengals already have a QB and LT they draft and the could really use a TE but really need a RT and upgraded guards.  Sewell projections never made sense to us here in Ohio.  Lesson learned in the NFL is to protect the QB.  Guess they could stay put and draft that TE then a center early in the 2nd would solve some of the Bengals issues.   To keep the masses happy and get that franchise LT and reduce that cost of overpaying 4 OL at least this mock would help take care of that and then some while also resetting our Edges plus backfilling players lost in FA for OL depth.
    • Turay has had 2 good games against bad OTs in his career.  All other games he's been avaerage.  No more "raw" DEs with upside please.  At least not before the 4th or 5th round.  Take players who can actually play in rounds 1 through 3.   All of the DEs and DTs Ballard has drafted should not have been taken before round 4, with Grover being the best, and who was taken in round 4 (Or 5).    And he did not draft Buckner, he traded for a known quantity.
    • you all need some coffee and try reading over the whole thread again.   Offer is to trade Kelly and our 2nd round pick...post was updated not giving away our 5th   Rest of you all need to go back a year or so and look over the Colts beat writer and value of trading away our top players and what it would command for each for Leonard, Kelly, and Nelson as the top 3 and he broke it down even farther per trades for rest of Colts top players. Again I have Darrisaw going before Sewell so really not a big shocker but yes one trade could lead to another if the Colts wanted to purse a QB.   At least this scenario allows the Colts, again in my opinion to draft the best LT available early, and again we took Nelson 6th overall so no a stretch of imagination.  Then trade back with the Packers and select the best center available who is a Kelly clone if not better younger version.   Sounds like the Colts hit two home runs if this is baseball in the first.  Remind who's on second of that's right we won't have a second round pick under this assumption.
  • Members

    • cdgacoltsfan

      cdgacoltsfan 563

      Senior Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • chad72

      chad72 7,120

      Senior Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • HoosierHero

      HoosierHero 54

      New Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • tvturner

      tvturner 275

      Senior Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • lincolndefan

      lincolndefan 67

      Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • ColtsGermany

      ColtsGermany 306

      Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • stitches

      stitches 7,987

      Senior Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • fatboy

      fatboy 69

      Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • Hark

      Hark 352

      Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
    • Myles

      Myles 4,044

      Senior Member
      Joined:
      Last active:
×
×
  • Create New...