Trading The #1 Overall Pick.

[scorptile]

sorry man I agree with you for the most part. but Eli was a number 1 he was traded after he was picked, and the OU QB is heading back to school.

i didnt know this thanks but there is the fact if the colts still trade down and pick up another pick next year whos to say we cant get him next year? who knows what happends year to year. for all i know is we pick luck and then trade manning and then luck is a bust then what were picking the top pick for the next 5 years easy. but trade dwon and get like blackmon or a high end RB and keeping peyton we are looking at making the playoffs for the next 3-5 years. its only logical to trade down to get the best value for your entire team.

[scorptile]

Apparently you are not familiar with a man named Mel Kiper Jr. None of those "past few years" picks were as hyped as Luck, and for good reason-- none of them are as GOOD as Luck. Kiper puts Luck just under John Elway as the greatest QB prospect he has EVER seen. ELWAY-- not Manning. Kiper has been doing this since the late 70s if you still doubt.

http://articles.busi...draft-nfl-draft

so wait sam bradford, mathew stafford, cam newton, vince young, matt leinart, mark sanchez were all mentioned to be "as good as elway, montana, manning, etc etc" he gets paid to say that about the top qb's every single year. its a hype machine and it happends ever single year.

[JTcardscolts]

i didnt know this thanks but there is the fact if the colts still trade down and pick up another pick next year whos to say we cant get him next year? who knows what happends year to year. for all i know is we pick luck and then trade manning and then luck is a bust then what were picking the top pick for the next 5 years easy. but trade dwon and get like blackmon or a high end RB and keeping peyton we are looking at making the playoffs for the next 3-5 years. its only logical to trade down to get the best value for your entire team.

Yes I'm with you, who's to say there's not a better QB in next years draft.....just like u said the draft is year to year and hit and miss, or like a box of chocolates you never know what ur gonna get....

[Coffeedrinker]

And if luck turns out to be average and indeed overhyped, the colts will be thanking the football gods. That's thing about the draft its hit and miss, sure there are "sure things" declared by the experts, but even then it's chance.

But that's just it. The Colts don't depend on the media to do the scouting, they do that themselves, they watch film, interview the player, the player's coaches from college and high school, relatives, teammates, old next door neighbors. The only reason they pay attention to which players are being hyped and by whom is so they know how to set their draft board. But I can guarantee that the "expert" media opinions and player hype play no role in who the Colts will draft.

[Coffeedrinker]

so wait sam bradford, mathew stafford, cam newton, vince young, matt leinart, mark sanchez were all mentioned to be "as good as elway, montana, manning, etc etc" he gets paid to say that about the top qb's every single year. its a hype machine and it happends ever single year.

No they weren't.

[JWF]

so wait sam bradford, mathew stafford, cam newton, vince young, matt leinart, mark sanchez were all mentioned to be "as good as elway, montana, manning, etc etc" he gets paid to say that about the top qb's every single year. its a hype machine and it happends ever single year.

Lol. Nice fantasy land you live in. I dont ever remember Kiper saying that about most of those QBs.

Stafford is actually a very good QB. Newton looks like he is the real deal and Bradford (who looked very good as a rookie) was hurt the entire year and probably has the worst offesnive talent around him of any QB in the league.

[ConBro]

If we were to trade the pick, I think Cleveland would be the perfect trade partner. They pick at #4 and #22 in the 1st round. I'm quite sure we would have no problem getting those picks, plus some, in return for the rights to draft Luck. Then, take Claiborne, Kalil, or Blackmon with the 4th pick (whichever is available or whichever position is most needed), and the best available player with the #22 pick. Plus, we have the #33 pick. That's a lot of quality picks to enrich the roster. As long as Peyton is healthy and ready to turn that lazer, rocket arm loose on the league, we need to trade the pick and load up on young, talented playmakers.

[BmoreColt]

But that's just it. The Colts don't depend on the media to do the scouting, they do that themselves, they watch film, interview the player, the player's coaches from college and high school, relatives, teammates, old next door neighbors. The only reason they pay attention to which players are being hyped and by whom is so they know how to set their draft board. But I can guarantee that the "expert" media opinions and player hype play no role in who the Colts will draft.

So you are saying Jim Irsay has an "eye" for talent and did scouting of Andrew Luck himself? What are Irsay's credentials and track record of success? Mort and Schefter have said Irsay is "Sold" on Luck, either to increase trade value, or he is flat out buying into everyone else's opinion. If I remember correct the Colts were a two win team, Irsay had more things to evaluate within then a QB prospect in college.... AND again, how did Jim do when he was GM?

[Gonzo]

so wait sam bradford, mathew stafford, cam newton, vince young, matt leinart, mark sanchez were all mentioned to be "as good as elway, montana, manning, etc etc" he gets paid to say that about the top qb's every single year. its a hype machine and it happends ever single year.

You're dead wrong here. Kiper said that Jimmy Clausen was the top QB in that draft.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/04/19/mcshay-kiper-draw-their-final-battle-lines-on-jimmy-clausen/

[UKCOLT17]

You're dead wrong here. Kiper said that Jimmy Clausen was the top QB in that draft. you can say that bout every player in the draft no ones a definitive success so it dont matter what the experts say most of the best players dint even get drafted in the 1st round

[cgi4life]

If Manning is healthy, the best thing to do is to trade the pick for as many draft pics we can get. Just think, if we can build a team through the draft with a real running game and defense we will be a more balance team. So no matter who we use at QB, if Manning go down, we will still have a chance at winning. I love the colts but they have been too centered around Manning for years, this is the reason we have only one Super Bowl Ring. I don't want to draft Luck and become the same team again centered around the QB. Let's use this draft to build a well balanced team, maybe draft a QB in a later round or next year so when it's the new QB time to start, we will have balance team and all the pressure won't be on him. We have to admit, Manning is a special breed that don't don't come along often that can carry a whole franchise on is back and still produce...that's a lot of pressure and a lot to ask of one man. Please Mr Irsay, keep Manning (if he's healthy) and trade the pick so we can bring more talent to this team.

[Coffeedrinker]

So you are saying Jim Irsay has an "eye" for talent and did scouting of Andrew Luck himself? What are Irsay's credentials and track record of success?

No, 27 of the 32 teams NFL pay a scouting service and those teams all get the same reports on the same guys and then they have some of their own scouts who do further evaluation on the players they are interested in. The Colts are not one of those 27 teams. The Colts have their own extensive scouting department. They do not get the same reports other teams get. Grigson may change that, I don't know but as it stands right now they don't. Guess what a lot of media places contract with that scouting service as well and therefore get the same information. I am really amazed by how many people claim to follow the Colts and claim to understand how the NFL works yet so few know about that.

Mort and Schefter have said Irsay is "Sold" on Luck,

And Irsay denies saying that.

either to increase trade value, or he is flat out buying into everyone else's opinion. If I remember correct the Colts were a two win team, Irsay had more things to evaluate within then a QB prospect in college.... AND again, how did Jim do when he was GM?

I don't care how Irsay did as GM, he's not the GM now and he stays totally out of it now, other than hiring the GM.

[Ramblinwreck7]

Why comment then?

[Ramblinwreck7]

No, 27 of the 32 teams NFL pay a scouting service and those teams all get the same reports on the same guys and then they have some of their own scouts who do further evaluation on the players they are interested in. The Colts are not one of those 27 teams. The Colts have their own extensive scouting department. They do not get the same reports other teams get. Grigson may change that, I don't know but as it stands right now they don't. Guess what a lot of media places contract with that scouting service as well and therefore get the same information. I am really amazed by how many people claim to follow the Colts and claim to understand how the NFL works yet so few know about that.

And Irsay denies saying that.

I don't care how Irsay did as GM, he's not the GM now and he stays totally out of it now, other than hiring the GM.

Irsay doesn't stay totally out of it, he, Bill Polian, and Tony Dungy used to pick the players they were drafting as a group.

[Coffeedrinker]

Irsay doesn't stay totally out of it, he, Bill Polian, and Tony Dungy used to pick the players they were drafting as a group.

Umm, no. Irsay is around because he loves football and loves the draft but he has not been part of the decision making since he hired Polian. And also stated at the Grigson PC that he would be a traditional GM, the decision maker for all personnel decisions (I'm sure I can find the exact quote if need be). Also there were a lot more people involved in the draft than Polian and Dungy. The coordinators and position coaches are heavily involved as well.

[Ramblinwreck7]

Umm, no. Irsay is around because he loves football and loves the draft but he has not been part of the decision making since he hired Polian. And also stated at the Grigson PC that he would be a traditional GM, the decision maker for all personnel decisions (I'm sure I can find the exact quote if need be). Also there were a lot more people involved in the draft than Polian and Dungy. The coordinators and position coaches are heavily involved as well.

I read an article a few months ago that said that Irsay, Polian, and Dungy used to make a mutual decision on who to draft. The example was in 2003, Tony Dungy wanted to draft Tyler Brayton in the 1st round. Bill Polian and Jim Irsay both wanted to draft Dallas Clark so that's who they drafted. I don't know if they each had an equal vote, but saying Jim Irsay wasn't involved isn't true.

[Coffeedrinker]

I read an article a few months ago that said that Irsay, Polian, and Dungy used to make a mutual decision on who to draft. The example was in 2003, Tony Dungy wanted to draft Tyler Brayton in the 1st round. Bill Polian and Jim Irsay both wanted to draft Dallas Clark so that's who they drafted. I don't know if they each had an equal vote, but saying Jim Irsay wasn't involved isn't true.

Could be. Everything I have read though indicates Irsay is involved only so far as writing the checks, that he let's the war room come to a consensus on who to pick.

[BmoreColt]

No, 27 of the 32 teams NFL pay a scouting service and those teams all get the same reports on the same guys and then they have some of their own scouts who do further evaluation on the players they are interested in. The Colts are not one of those 27 teams. The Colts have their own extensive scouting department. They do not get the same reports other teams get. Grigson may change that, I don't know but as it stands right now they don't. Guess what a lot of media places contract with that scouting service as well and therefore get the same information. I am really amazed by how many people claim to follow the Colts and claim to understand how the NFL works yet so few know about that.

And Irsay denies saying that.

I don't care how Irsay did as GM, he's not the GM now and he stays totally out of it now, other than hiring the GM.

I am not sure what your response is...? I think you are deeply reading into what I said to you

[Deano1818]

I don't care how Irsay did as GM, he's not the GM now and he stays totally out of it now, other than hiring the GM.

Coffee...... you are usually logical in your posts....... Do you REALLY think Irsay isnt going to have ANY input on their potential franchise type pick?

[Coffeedrinker]

Coffee...... you are usually logical in your posts....... Do you REALLY think Irsay isnt going to have ANY input on their potential franchise type pick?

Any input? With the first overall pick he may have more of a say but in general terms not... "take this player". I think Irsay learned that he has very little skill in determining quality players during his time as VP and GM and has enough love of the game to stay out of player decision

[Malakai432]

so wait sam bradford, mathew stafford, cam newton, vince young, matt leinart, mark sanchez were all mentioned to be "as good as elway, montana, manning, etc etc" he gets paid to say that about the top qb's every single year. its a hype machine and it happends ever single year.

Really? I never heard Cam Newton is supposed to be the next great thing. I heard much of the opposite actually. Even so, none of those guys were remotely as hyped as Luck is currently.

[CCF]

While I don't think Luck is not going to be a success, there are some things that scare me. #1 The knee brace, I dont like the idea of drafting a pillar of the franchise if he has a bad knee. I will plead ignorance on this since I do not know why he wears it. #2 For every Peyton Manning there is a Ryan Leaf, and say what you will noone in the '98 draft predicted how that would turn out, people said the same things (sure fire can't miss).

Call me blind or whatever you want, but I won't hide the fact that I am loyal to Peyton, the thought of him playing anywhere else makes me gut wrench. IF he has 4 years left in him, I would trade the pick and restock the team for 2012 and get back to competing.

Chances are that Luck will be a great QB for years to come, is he the next coming? Noone knows that yet. But the reality is in 5 years from now when or if he reaches his peak I will be able to look at him in a diferent uniform and have minimal regrets. Looking at Peyton in a Jets uniform on the sideline talking strategy with Rex Ryan would prevent me from sleeping. I'd trade the pick and throw my support at Peyton IF he gets clearance march 8, or at least very promising news. If that doesnt come I draft Luck.

[UndecidedFrog]

Luck's left knee brace is an artifact from Jim Harbaugh. All QBs under his coaching wear plant leg knee braces as a prevention, as well as additional support and stability. Check out Alex Smith and Colin Kapernick when they play.

[UndecidedFrog]

This is from http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2011/08/training-camp/jim-harbaugh-on-alex-smith/

An interview with Jim Harbaugh back in August 2011

On whether the braces that both Smith and fellow Colin Kaepernick wear on their left knees were his idea:

“Yes. Yes, it’s like a seatbelt. You can’t fight the odds, on wearing it on the plant leg, that leg that strides out and it’s something that can prevent MCLs. That’s the thing that it’s there to prevent, the impact from the side of the leg. Even if you were to get a shot that would be a grade three [sprain], the brace could make it a grade two or a grade one or eliminate it all together. We’re trying to find ways to dodge bullets out here and give ourselves the advantage over the bullets.”

On whether the braces helps with technique at all:

“No, it’s strictly to prevent those shots from the side, or from either side, when the quarterback strides and puts all his weight on that plant foot.”

On whether the knee brace might be something the quarterbacks use in a game:

“Yes, yes.”

On whether he wore one in his playing days:

“I did, yeah. I did in college and then I didn’t until I got an MCL.”

[CCF]

This is from http://49ers.pressde...-on-alex-smith/

An interview with Jim Harbaugh back in August 2011

Thanks for the info, it is comferting to know there is no damage to the leg. Im surprised a brace doesnt restrict mobility at all, I'm guessing it is a non factor judging by some of the runs I have seen Luck pull off.

It is funny, at about week 8 when #1 pick became a realistic posibility I was so excited., then the closer it got and the more real it became I started to feel like a traitor. I became a Colts fan when Jim Harbaugh was a Colt, the season of all the amazing comeback wins, I can vividly remember watching the '98 draft praying we took Ryan Leaf first overall. But the day Peyton played that first game as a Colt I was behind him 100%, and have argued and debated 100's of times his place in history. Maybe one day I will say the same about Andrew Luck, but for now I'm not sure how you all feel... But me for one, I'm having a real hard time with even the idea of Peyton leaving for another team, a big part of me wants to hold onto Peyton and trade the pick and try to fast track the rebuild. Sorry if I hijacked the thread or changed topic.

[UndecidedFrog]

It is funny, at about week 8 when #1 pick became a realistic posibility I was so excited., then the closer it got and the more real it became I started to feel like a traitor. I became a Colts fan when Jim Harbaugh was a Colt, the season of all the amazing comeback wins, I can vividly remember watching the '98 draft praying we took Ryan Leaf first overall. But the day Peyton played that first game as a Colt I was behind him 100%, and have argued and debated 100's of times his place in history. Maybe one day I will say the same about Andrew Luck, but for now I'm not sure how you all feel... But me for one, I'm having a real hard time with even the idea of Peyton leaving for another team, a big part of me wants to hold onto Peyton and trade the pick and try to fast track the rebuild. Sorry if I hijacked the thread or changed topic.

Andrew Luck is a Jim Harbaugh-developed product. While I think he may be over-hyped, I think he may also be under-rated. I have seen most of his games these past 2 years, as I follow Stanford football. I also follow other NCAA teams. I think Luck is head and shoulders above any of the QBs in college, by the way he approaches the game, how he reads the defenses, and throws into very small windows for his receivers who often, do not have much separation from defenders. I am not a professional scout. I am just providing my observation from a layman's perspective. I see Luck do what I do not see other college QBs do. As simple as that analysis is, I am not surprised that many professional appraisers of football talent rank him highly. While there are no guarantees, I do not think there is a high probability that Luck will be a bust. He may not become an HOF QB, but I think he will likely become a PB QB.

I agree with some posters in this forum, that the Colts cannot have both Peyton and Luck on the same team together for any protracted period of time. Any #1 overall pick is expected to play. That was true for Peyton himself. It isn't so much an issue about finances (although there are ramifications) as it is for the professional approach to the game. You either:

1) trade the #1 overall pick for multiple picks, or

2) you pick a non-QB with your #1 overall pick, or

3) you pick a QB with your #1, and release/cut Peyton. Paying Peyton to trade him does not make sense.

Scenario 1)

Downsides: Peyton may be healthy enough to play for another 5 years, at which time there may not be another highly rated prospect like Luck to draft. Or if there was, the Colts will most likely not be in a position to draft him at #1 overall. The team will then be faced with a future much like how the Dolphins and the Broncos are still dealing with losing Marino and Elway to retirement, wallowing around for the QB of the future for more than a decade (I don't think Moore or Tebow are the QBs of the future for either team). Peyton may get injured and not be able to play any more, and the Colts will experience seasons like this past year. Of the multiple picks received from the trade, most of them will be development projects, and will not be ready to contribute right away. Some or all of them may be busts.

Upsides: Maybe Peyton can lead the Colts to another SB within those 5 years. Maybe the multiple picks received turn out to be bona-fide contributors that help the SB run.

Scenario 2)

Downsides: Not the BPA. Potential to bypass the QB of the future. Not getting full value for this particular 2012 #1 pick (i.e. in a trade for the #2 pick+other picks).

Upsides: Get a high level prospect that will fill a hole that needs to be filled.

Scenario 3)

Downsides: The pain in seeing Peyton potentially playing for another team, and being successful at it, while you rebuild a team around your new young QB.

Upsides: You build a team to compete for the future, beyond the next 5 years.

I winced when in 1983, the Baltimore Colts wanted to draft Stanford quarterback John Elway #1, and the fiasco that followed that necessitated a trade with Denver. I was happy that the Colts got Peyton Manning with the #1 pick in 1998. Now the Colts have the opportunity to draft another Stanford quarterback with the #1 overall pick. I can understand how you and many feel about your loyalty to Peyton, for what he has accomplished for the Colts over the years, such that his face is the face of the team. However, I think it is a good thing to better define your fan status....is it to the team or is it to Peyton? Despite arguments that Peyton is the team, they are separate. Peyton has a limited football career. The Colts, as an organization, will continue long after Peyton is in the HOF.

I think if you are a Peyton fan, you will choose scenario 1.

I think if you are a Colts fan, you will choose scenario 3.

I do not recommend scenario 2.

What do you think?

[BmoreColt]

Andrew Luck is a Jim Harbaugh-developed product. While I think he may be over-hyped, I think he may also be under-rated. I have seen most of his games these past 2 years, as I follow Stanford football. I also follow other NCAA teams. I think Luck is head and shoulders above any of the QBs in college, by the way he approaches the game, how he reads the defenses, and throws into very small windows for his receivers who often, do not have much separation from defenders. I am not a professional scout. I am just providing my observation from a layman's perspective. I see Luck do what I do not see other college QBs do. As simple as that analysis is, I am not surprised that many professional appraisers of football talent rank him highly. While there are no guarantees, I do not think there is a high probability that Luck will be a bust. He may not become an HOF QB, but I think he will likely become a PB QB.

I agree with some posters in this forum, that the Colts cannot have both Peyton and Luck on the same team together for any protracted period of time. Any #1 overall pick is expected to play. That was true for Peyton himself. It isn't so much an issue about finances (although there are ramifications) as it is for the professional approach to the game. You either:

1) trade the #1 overall pick for multiple picks, or

2) you pick a non-QB with your #1 overall pick, or

3) you pick a QB with your #1, and release/cut Peyton. Paying Peyton to trade him does not make sense.

Scenario 1)

Downsides: Peyton may be healthy enough to play for another 5 years, at which time there may not be another highly rated prospect like Luck to draft. Or if there was, the Colts will most likely not be in a position to draft him at #1 overall. The team will then be faced with a future much like how the Dolphins and the Broncos are still dealing with losing Marino and Elway to retirement, wallowing around for the QB of the future for more than a decade (I don't think Moore or Tebow are the QBs of the future for either team). Peyton may get injured and not be able to play any more, and the Colts will experience seasons like this past year. Of the multiple picks received from the trade, most of them will be development projects, and will not be ready to contribute right away. Some or all of them may be busts.

Upsides: Maybe Peyton can lead the Colts to another SB within those 5 years. Maybe the multiple picks received turn out to be bona-fide contributors that help the SB run.

Scenario 2)

Downsides: Not the BPA. Potential to bypass the QB of the future. Not getting full value for this particular 2012 #1 pick (i.e. in a trade for the #2 pick+other picks).

Upsides: Get a high level prospect that will fill a hole that needs to be filled.

Scenario 3)

Downsides: The pain in seeing Peyton potentially playing for another team, and being successful at it, while you rebuild a team around your new young QB.

Upsides: You build a team to compete for the future, beyond the next 5 years.

I winced when in 1983, the Baltimore Colts wanted to draft Stanford quarterback John Elway #1, and the fiasco that followed that necessitated a trade with Denver. I was happy that the Colts got Peyton Manning with the #1 pick in 1998. Now the Colts have the opportunity to draft another Stanford quarterback with the #1 overall pick. I can understand how you and many feel about your loyalty to Peyton, for what he has accomplished for the Colts over the years, such that his face is the face of the team. However, I think it is a good thing to better define your fan status....is it to the team or is it to Peyton? Despite arguments that Peyton is the team, they are separate. Peyton has a limited football career. The Colts, as an organization, will continue long after Peyton is in the HOF.

I think if you are a Peyton fan, you will choose scenario 1.

I think if you are a Colts fan, you will choose scenario 3.

I do not recommend scenario 2.

What do you think?

I think that is a solid interpretation, but your downside for Scenario 3 leave out many other cons. As well as forgetting pros in option one... but I think you are more of a Scenario 3 guy and I am hands down a Scenario 1 guy, so we would slant our interpretation maybe slightly..

[UndecidedFrog]

I think that is a solid interpretation, but your downside for Scenario 3 leave out many other cons. As well as forgetting pros in option one... but I think you are more of a Scenario 3 guy and I am hands down a Scenario 1 guy, so we would slant our interpretation maybe slightly..

Please feel free to add any upsides and/or downsides to any scenario you feel I left off.

I tried to be even-handed. I do not lean one way or the other.

[CCF]

Andrew Luck is a Jim Harbaugh-developed product. While I think he may be over-hyped, I think he may also be under-rated. I have seen most of his games these past 2 years, as I follow Stanford football. I also follow other NCAA teams. I think Luck is head and shoulders above any of the QBs in college, by the way he approaches the game, how he reads the defenses, and throws into very small windows for his receivers who often, do not have much separation from defenders. I am not a professional scout. I am just providing my observation from a layman's perspective. I see Luck do what I do not see other college QBs do. As simple as that analysis is, I am not surprised that many professional appraisers of football talent rank him highly. While there are no guarantees, I do not think there is a high probability that Luck will be a bust. He may not become an HOF QB, but I think he will likely become a PB QB.

I agree with some posters in this forum, that the Colts cannot have both Peyton and Luck on the same team together for any protracted period of time. Any #1 overall pick is expected to play. That was true for Peyton himself. It isn't so much an issue about finances (although there are ramifications) as it is for the professional approach to the game. You either:

1) trade the #1 overall pick for multiple picks, or

2) you pick a non-QB with your #1 overall pick, or

3) you pick a QB with your #1, and release/cut Peyton. Paying Peyton to trade him does not make sense.

Scenario 1)

Downsides: Peyton may be healthy enough to play for another 5 years, at which time there may not be another highly rated prospect like Luck to draft. Or if there was, the Colts will most likely not be in a position to draft him at #1 overall. The team will then be faced with a future much like how the Dolphins and the Broncos are still dealing with losing Marino and Elway to retirement, wallowing around for the QB of the future for more than a decade (I don't think Moore or Tebow are the QBs of the future for either team). Peyton may get injured and not be able to play any more, and the Colts will experience seasons like this past year. Of the multiple picks received from the trade, most of them will be development projects, and will not be ready to contribute right away. Some or all of them may be busts.

Upsides: Maybe Peyton can lead the Colts to another SB within those 5 years. Maybe the multiple picks received turn out to be bona-fide contributors that help the SB run.

Scenario 2)

Downsides: Not the BPA. Potential to bypass the QB of the future. Not getting full value for this particular 2012 #1 pick (i.e. in a trade for the #2 pick+other picks).

Upsides: Get a high level prospect that will fill a hole that needs to be filled.

Scenario 3)

Downsides: The pain in seeing Peyton potentially playing for another team, and being successful at it, while you rebuild a team around your new young QB.

Upsides: You build a team to compete for the future, beyond the next 5 years.

I winced when in 1983, the Baltimore Colts wanted to draft Stanford quarterback John Elway #1, and the fiasco that followed that necessitated a trade with Denver. I was happy that the Colts got Peyton Manning with the #1 pick in 1998. Now the Colts have the opportunity to draft another Stanford quarterback with the #1 overall pick. I can understand how you and many feel about your loyalty to Peyton, for what he has accomplished for the Colts over the years, such that his face is the face of the team. However, I think it is a good thing to better define your fan status....is it to the team or is it to Peyton? Despite arguments that Peyton is the team, they are separate. Peyton has a limited football career. The Colts, as an organization, will continue long after Peyton is in the HOF.

I think if you are a Peyton fan, you will choose scenario 1.

I think if you are a Colts fan, you will choose scenario 3.

I do not recommend scenario 2.

What do you think?

I was a Colts fan before Peyton arrived and no matter what happens, I will be one when he leaves. Your post had some great points, Scenario 3 is a little more complicated to me. Because for me I am loyal to both the Colts and Peyton, he is different than most players to me. The way I see it is if Peyton doesn't come along, the new building isn't there and the Colts are attatched to every LA rumor like Jax and SD.

So what I am saying is while my loyalty is to the Colts, what Peyton has meant to this team and the city of Indianapolis can never be overlooked. Which in turn makes my loyalty to him just as high. In a perferct world Peyton is a Colt until he retires, and becomes a member of the organization in another capacity when it is over.

[BmoreColt]

Please feel free to add any upsides and/or downsides to any scenario you feel I left off.

I tried to be even-handed. I do not lean one way or the other.

Well in this particular case there should be four scenarios.

1. Keep Peyton Trade the pick.

2. Keep Peyton Take another player.

3. Cut Peyton Draft Luck.

4. Keep Peyton and still Select Luck.

Obviously as you have acknowledged Scenario 2 is a terrible option, I would have to also say our new Scenario 4 is also a very bad decision.

Scenario 1-

Pros: Colts fans get to enjoy Mannings final years on the team, this is their best chance of winning a SB in the immediate future. Players from all the draft picks help this team in the future and make the transition smoother for the next QB.

Cons: Colts could potentially miss out on what they are calling a “sure thing” prospect and may potentially face years of being unsuccessful, post Manning, or if he were to suffer another injury.

Scenario 2-

Pros: You are filling a void on the team with one of the other top players, Kalil, Blackmon, Claiborne.

Cons: You are passing on the BPA and are passing on the bounty for that player.

Scenario 3-

Pros: You are in full out rebuild mode, and are taking that “sure thing” prospect, with the hopes he will be exactly that. You are building for the future.

Cons: Watching Manning play and win on another team for the next four years. Suffering through multiple losing seasons, and potentially a substantial time without a playoff berth, Luck doesn’t pan out and you are right back where you started.

Scenario 4-

Pros: You have Manning and you have that “sure thing’ prospect behind him. You are playing for now, while hoping you have your future.

Cons: Being stuck in the middle between rebuild mode and compete now mode. The lack of talent because of not ascertaining the bounty for Luck, especially with the cap implications the Colts face, would keep the team from probably ever winning again. Potentially stunting Luck’s growth as he hold a clipboard for four years.

My Opinion on Irsay- He will choose Scenario 4, which is hands down a foolish idea. As you have stated and I agree it’s all in on one or the other.

I would choose- Scenario 1, I think the bounty for Luck could re-stock this team with plenty of fresh talent, talent that this team is currently lacking. It will make this team more complete and better in the long run, it will keep the organization from making the same mistake by building around just one player. Peyton is my favorite player ever to play the game, I want to see him win SB’s and go down as the greatest of all the time. If he were to accomplish that here over his final years, I think the cement would be poured and that’s exactly how he would go down. I would rather they compete now with the guy who can take us to the playoffs every year and have a real shot at winning, then to suffer through rebuild mode which doesn’t have a guarantee on it. We know what we have in Peyton, the excitement to compete now over his final years, would make it all the easier to forget about the time of transition post Manning. Plus the bounty players will help make that transition a smoother one and will keep this team from falling into the same mistake again, building around one player, in this case, Luck.

[UndecidedFrog]

My Opinion on Irsay- He will choose Scenario 4, which is hands down a foolish idea. As you have stated and I agree it’s all in on one or the other.

I would choose- Scenario 1, I think the bounty for Luck could re-stock this team with plenty of fresh talent, talent that this team is currently lacking. It will make this team more complete and better in the long run, it will keep the organization from making the same mistake by building around just one player. Peyton is my favorite player ever to play the game, I want to see him win SB’s and go down as the greatest of all the time. If he were to accomplish that here over his final years, I think the cement would be poured and that’s exactly how he would go down. I would rather they compete now with the guy who can take us to the playoffs every year and have a real shot at winning, then to suffer through rebuild mode which doesn’t have a guarantee on it. We know what we have in Peyton, the excitement to compete now over his final years, would make it all the easier to forget about the time of transition post Manning. Plus the bounty players will help make that transition a smoother one and will keep this team from falling into the same mistake again, building around one player, in this case, Luck.

Thanks for your thoughtful response. I agree there is the additional scenario 4, which we both agree is also not recommended, but may be the way Irsay decides to go. I wonder where Grigson (and the new HC) comes out on this.

I also take your additional pros and cons as additions to the ones I have previously listed into consideration.

[BmoreColt]

Thanks for your thoughtful response. I agree there is the additional scenario 4, which we both agree is also not recommended, but may be the way Irsay decides to go. I wonder where Grigson (and the new HC) comes out on this.

I also take your additional pros and cons as additions to the ones I have previously listed into consideration.

That's a really good question. I think if they go offesnive minded, then chances are they intend to proceed without Manning, if someone like say Zimmer, my favorite for HC, then the Colts intend to Keep Manning, as Zimmer has the ability to work with what he is given and schematically improve a defense. I think with Zimmer it would be a toss up if the Colts trade the pick or take Manning and Luck. Also it depends on if CC keeps his job or not, there are many variables and even then, who really knows? Irsay and Grigson, not any of us. I just hope they are smart enough to go all in on one or the other, but I fear they will try to have both on the team, which is not a wise idea.

[UndecidedFrog]

That's a really good question. I think if they go offesnive minded, then chances are they intend to proceed without Manning, if someone like say Zimmer, my favorite for HC, then the Colts intend to Keep Manning, as Zimmer has the ability to work with what he is given and schematically improve a defense. I think with Zimmer it would be a toss up if the Colts trade the pick or take Manning and Luck. Also it depends on if CC keeps his job or not, there are many variables and even then, who really knows? Irsay and Grigson, not any of us. I just hope they are smart enough to go all in on one or the other, but I fear they will try to have both on the team, which is not a wise idea.

I guess time will tell how all this plays out. From my readings, I understand these will be important decision dates:

Floating : Hire new HC

March 8 : To pay or not to pay Peyton his bonus.

April 6 : Draft Day round 1.

Hopefully Irsay, Grigson and the new HC make the right decisions. I think I would use the following criteria when judging if they did:

Team gets to the SB within next 5 years if they choose to trade the #1 overall pick, and Peyton remains the Colt QB.

Team gets to the SB within next 5 years if they choose to use the #1 overall pick on something other than a QB, and Peyton remains the Colt QB.

Team gets to the SB within next 10 years if they choose to use the #1 overall pick and pick a QB, and Peyton is no longer a Colt QB.

Team gets to the SB within next 5 years if they choose to use the #1 overall pick and pick a QB, and Peyton remains the Colt QB.

Would you have different criteria to judge success?

[Ramblinwreck7]

I guess time will tell how all this plays out. From my readings, I understand these will be important decision dates:

Floating : Hire new HC

March 8 : To pay or not to pay Peyton his bonus.

April 6 : Draft Day round 1.

Hopefully Irsay, Grigson and the new HC make the right decisions. I think I would use the following criteria when judging if they did:

Team gets to the SB within next 5 years if they choose to trade the #1 overall pick, and Peyton remains the Colt QB.

Team gets to the SB within next 5 years if they choose to use the #1 overall pick on something other than a QB, and Peyton remains the Colt QB.

Team gets to the SB within next 10 years if they choose to use the #1 overall pick and pick a QB, and Peyton is no longer a Colt QB.

Team gets to the SB within next 5 years if they choose to use the #1 overall pick and pick a QB, and Peyton remains the Colt QB.

Would you have different criteria to judge success?

Yes, winning the Super Bowl, not just getting there.

[BmoreColt]

I guess time will tell how all this plays out. From my readings, I understand these will be important decision dates:

Floating : Hire new HC

March 8 : To pay or not to pay Peyton his bonus.

April 6 : Draft Day round 1.

Hopefully Irsay, Grigson and the new HC make the right decisions. I think I would use the following criteria when judging if they did:

Team gets to the SB within next 5 years if they choose to trade the #1 overall pick, and Peyton remains the Colt QB.

Team gets to the SB within next 5 years if they choose to use the #1 overall pick on something other than a QB, and Peyton remains the Colt QB.

Team gets to the SB within next 10 years if they choose to use the #1 overall pick and pick a QB, and Peyton is no longer a Colt QB.

Team gets to the SB within next 5 years if they choose to use the #1 overall pick and pick a QB, and Peyton remains the Colt QB.

Would you have different criteria to judge success?

I am sure there are tons of intangibles that we couldn't possibly fathom, because we aren't on the inside, and aren't the owners of the Colts. I think you are on the right track of thinking, in the NFL and sports, success is measured my championships. The Colts make the playoffs 9 consecutive years, and only have one SB to show for it. I think as an owner Irsay has to consider Short term and Long term success. With Peyton on the team, it has to be about Short term, but there are ways to consider long term within the short term. Consider of the Colts trade the pick and get the bounty for Luck. Most or at the very worse some of these palyers are going to be contributors and possibly key players for the Colts in the future. If the Colts get 4 picks this year alone, that could be easily 2-3 instant contributors for the team, that will help with and post Manning. The salary cap has to come in to play, there are soo many variables, Manning's health, coaching staff, I think if you only consider long term, you take Luck, Short term you keep Manning draft another player, Short and Long term are Trade the pick keep Manning, and somewhat short term but more long term you take Luck and keep Manning.

[BmoreColt]

Yes, winning the Super Bowl, not just getting there.

... I just said the same thing...