Trading The #1 Overall Pick.

[JTcardscolts]

Unless you get an absolutely amazing deal you have to take Luck.

An amazing deal?

First........ Manning must be proven to be 100 percent. Not 95%

He must be able to make any and all the throws at the same velocity as before

Second........ Manning MUST Give a commitment to play a minimum of 4 more years.

Third.........Cleveland is the logical partner to trade with... BUT 2 first round picks isnt nearly

Enough.

For the pick I would ask

1) Joe Thomas ..... (this guy is a mile ahead of our current OT)

2) Both first round picks

3) A conditional pick for 2013. (if Luck plays 50% or more, a first round pick)

We could move one of our current rookie OTs to Guard to replace Diem, and move the other to RT

This would solidify our OL for many years to come.

We would STILL draft Luck in this fantasy world, and would only pull the trade if RGIII

(or Blackmon) is still available at 4

This is probably not going to happen, but If Manning can play, this makes some sense.

But understand....... Fans in fantasy land, is sort of like two fleas argueing over which one owns the dog they sit on.

First off i like your analogy at the end, I will be using that one. But to your post, yes Peyton must be healthy and even sign a career contract with the colts like green bay wanted to do with Frave.

And that would be crazy awesome if we could get JT, maybe if we gave them one of our OT. but the Trade would be for two 1st tthis year a 2nd this year, and then a 1st and 2nd next year and maybe a 3rd this year, and if they want to swap some players too, it be even sweeter.

But this is what I've been saying the whole time, I'm not a luck hater and don't think he's a bad QB either. I'm just throwing another perspective out there. Of course if Peyton wasn't healthy I would want to get Luck, altho it'd be a rough couple years. But back to what I was saying if someone is gonna offer their house(some say kings ransom) I say it's to good to pass up.

[JTcardscolts]

luck is so way overhyped. remember the past three years? what has those top qb's done. nothing really. has any one of them won a superbowl yet? nope. and they were supposed to be the next great "elway, marino, manning, etc" they do this every year and hype up the top qb of the class. look at the ones that have won a superbowl the past few years were they picked #1 besides manning? eli wasn technicaly 1, big ben was lower, brady much later, brad johnson wasnt a 1, drew brees wasnt a 1. so yes trade the pick and if it is cleveland and blackmon is sitting there at 4 take him then pick up the qb from oklahoma at 22.

sorry man I agree with you for the most part. but Eli was a number 1 he was traded after he was picked, and the OU QB is heading back to school.

[BmoreColt]

Unless you get an absolutely amazing deal you have to take Luck.

An amazing deal?

First........ Manning must be proven to be 100 percent. Not 95%

He must be able to make any and all the throws at the same velocity as before

Second........ Manning MUST Give a commitment to play a minimum of 4 more years.

Third.........Cleveland is the logical partner to trade with... BUT 2 first round picks isnt nearly

Enough.

For the pick I would ask

1) Joe Thomas ..... (this guy is a mile ahead of our current OT)

2) Both first round picks

3) A conditional pick for 2013. (if Luck plays 50% or more, a first round pick)

We could move one of our current rookie OTs to Guard to replace Diem, and move the other to RT

This would solidify our OL for many years to come.

We would STILL draft Luck in this fantasy world, and would only pull the trade if RGIII

(or Blackmon) is still available at 4

This is probably not going to happen, but If Manning can play, this makes some sense.

But understand....... Fans in fantasy land, is sort of like two fleas argueing over which one owns the dog they sit on.

If Manning is healthy.. wouldn't you expect him to at least finish out the four years on his contract? He was after all the Iron Man of the NFL on pace to break Brett Favre's streak, so if healthy, he should without question play out his contract!

[Jaric]

If Manning is healthy.. wouldn't you expect him to at least finish out the four years on his contract? He was after all the Iron Man of the NFL on pace to break Brett Favre's streak, so if healthy, he should without question play out his contract!

Not really.

If you look at the way the contract is structured, after the next two years, the salary drops off dramatically. That usually indicates years of a contract added for window dressing to inflate the numbers of the deal but are never intended to be played under.

Now, I don't know how many years Manning wants or is able to play. We don't even know if he'll be back next season, and if so, at what capacity.

But IMO assuming he's going to play into his 40s with no dropoff in production isn't a leap of faith I'm willing to take

[oldunclemark]

This a new topic.

Take luck is best bet in my opinion

He has to agree to sit on the bench for a long time. he may not

[jskinnz]

And if luck turns out to be average and indeed overhyped, the colts will be thanking the football gods. That's thing about the draft its hit and miss, sure there are "sure things" declared by the experts, but even then it's chance.

If in doing their homework on Luck, the information comes back that this guy is indeed expected to be a franchise QB, the Colts take him no matter what. There is no such thing as a sure thing, but it the scouting that they do tells them he has as good a chance at succeeding as they believe, you take him and don't look back.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Unless you get an absolutely amazing deal you have to take Luck.

An amazing deal?

First........ Manning must be proven to be 100 percent. Not 95%

He must be able to make any and all the throws at the same velocity as before

Second........ Manning MUST Give a commitment to play a minimum of 4 more years.

Third.........Cleveland is the logical partner to trade with... BUT 2 first round picks isnt nearly

Enough.

For the pick I would ask

1) Joe Thomas ..... (this guy is a mile ahead of our current OT)

2) Both first round picks

3) A conditional pick for 2013. (if Luck plays 50% or more, a first round pick)

We could move one of our current rookie OTs to Guard to replace Diem, and move the other to RT

This would solidify our OL for many years to come.

We would STILL draft Luck in this fantasy world, and would only pull the trade if RGIII

(or Blackmon) is still available at 4

This is probably not going to happen, but If Manning can play, this makes some sense.

But understand....... Fans in fantasy land, is sort of like two fleas argueing over which one owns the dog they sit on.

Nice thought but impossible. Joe Thomas 8/22/2011: Signed an eight-year, $92 million contract. The deal contains $44 million guaranteed.

Translation isn't going anywhere because trading him would cripple their salary cap. Trading valued players is extremely hard due to the salary cap issues it creates for the trading team. If we make a trade with Cleveland it will be for a package of draft picks this coming year and future years.

[FireJimCaldwell]

Not really.

If you look at the way the contract is structured, after the next two years, the salary drops off dramatically. That usually indicates years of a contract added for window dressing to inflate the numbers of the deal but are never intended to be played under.

Now, I don't know how many years Manning wants or is able to play. We don't even know if he'll be back next season, and if so, at what capacity.

But IMO assuming he's going to play into his 40s with no dropoff in production isn't a leap of faith I'm willing to take

I'm not sure where you are getting your information. His base salary increases each year, his salary cap # increases 1 million each year. This will be the last year any bonus money is applied, but if his option bonus is picked up, then he will need to play at least 3 years before the cap hit of him retiring/being released/traded becomes manageable.

Assuming the Option Bonus of 28 million is Paid

Base Salaries
$3,400,000.00 2011
$7,400,000.00  2012
$8,400,000.00 2013
$9,400,000.00 2014
$10,400,000.00 2015

Cap Hits
$16,000,000.00  2011
$17,000,000.00  2012
$18,000,000.00  2013
$19,000,000.00  2014
$20,000,000.00  2015

Dollars Paid out
2011  $26,400,000.00
2012  $35,400,000.00
2013  $8,400,000.00
2014  $9,400,000.00
2015  $10,400,000.00
Total  $90,000,000.00

[oldunclemark]

Nice thought but impossible. Joe Thomas 8/22/2011: Signed an eight-year, $92 million contract. The deal contains $44 million guaranteed.

Translation isn't going anywhere because trading him would cripple their salary cap. Trading valued players is extremely hard due to the salary cap issues it creates for the trading team. If we make a trade with Cleveland it will be for a package of draft picks this coming year and future years.

You will never know about the 95% 100% thing...Id take 95% of Manning...because we know what that is.

Manning's committment is not in question. He has a 4-year contract...and he costs less as the years go on..as FJC says.

All you are going to get from Cleveland is their two No.1s. and their No. 2 this year..

You wont get next year's No.1.

..and you draft RG3 to replace Manning in four years..because unlike Luck..he's wiling to sit on the bench that long.

Both have great value..but under your 95-100% scenario, Manning is the sure thing. Luck and RG3 are the gamble.

[sfergson727]

It was a first pick in the draft that brought Indy over a decade of success. Now we are in the unique position to draft first again, for yet another player that could very well usher in the next decade of winning. You don't look a gift horse in the mouth, and you don't trade away a chance at another Peyton Manning.

[Jaric]

I'm not sure where you are getting your information. His base salary increases each year, his salary cap # increases 1 million each year. This will be the last year any bonus money is applied, but if his option bonus is picked up, then he will need to play at least 3 years before the cap hit of him retiring/being released/traded becomes manageable.

Assuming the Option Bonus of 28 million is Paid

Base Salaries
$3,400,000.00 2011
$7,400,000.00  2012
$8,400,000.00 2013
$9,400,000.00 2014
$10,400,000.00 2015

Cap Hits
$16,000,000.00  2011
$17,000,000.00  2012
$18,000,000.00  2013
$19,000,000.00  2014
$20,000,000.00  2015

Dollars Paid out
2011  $26,400,000.00
2012  $35,400,000.00
2013  $8,400,000.00
2014  $9,400,000.00
2015  $10,400,000.00
Total  $90,000,000.00

When he signed the deal, it was reported he was making 23 mil the first three years, then 16 mil the remaining two years.

[hawkeyes]

Its the only option for a team with aging veterans ... get the most bang for our bucks and be quicker to the competitive edge by filling as many holes as possible. If they settle on Luck and Manning does not return - this team will not be in the playoffs any time soon.

[JTcardscolts]

If in doing their homework on Luck, the information comes back that this guy is indeed expected to be a franchise QB, the Colts take him no matter what. There is no such thing as a sure thing, but it the scouting that they do tells them he has as good a chance at succeeding as they believe, you take him and don't look back.

if this were the case there would be no need to look back, just look to the endzone cause Peyton just threw 400 yards and 6 TDs on our defense. See your wrong, if Peyton is healthy this is a sure thing, infact Peytons been a sure thing is entire career, of course with the exception of this year.

[JTcardscolts]

It was a first pick in the draft that brought Indy over a decade of success. Now we are in the unique position to draft first again, for yet another player that could very well usher in the next decade of winning. You don't look a gift horse in the mouth, and you don't trade away a chance at another Peyton Manning.

So you trade Peyton for a chance?

[sfergson727]

So you trade Peyton for a chance?

Only if you absolutely must, but preferrably not. We don't need to trade Peyton to take Luck. On a personal level, I still am very doubtful that Peyton will ever play again.

[JTcardscolts]

Only if you absolutely must, but preferrably not. We don't need to trade Peyton to take Luck. On a personal level, I still am very doubtful that Peyton will ever play again.

It would be a shame not to see 18 throw the ole pigskin again, and IMO even worse if its not in blue.

Let's both hope ur wrong.

[FireJimCaldwell]

So you trade Peyton for a chance?

It is impossible to trade him.

When he signed the deal, it was reported he was making 23 mil the first three years, then 16 mil the remaining two years.

If you look at a combination of what is posted above, that is close to how it plays out. Actual dollars spent first 3 years 70.2 million or 23.2 per year. The #'s above are the actual dollar figures involved in his contract if the option bonus is picked up. If he makes the 69 million in 3 years as reported, it is 21 in the final 2, but again, the information above are the actual #'s.

You will never know about the 95% 100% thing...Id take 95% of Manning...because we know what that is.

Manning's committment is not in question. He has a 4-year contract...and he costs less as the years go on..as FJC says.

All you are going to get from Cleveland is their two No.1s. and their No. 2 this year..

You wont get next year's No.1.

..and you draft RG3 to replace Manning in four years..because unlike Luck..he's wiling to sit on the bench that long.

Both have great value..but under your 95-100% scenario, Manning is the sure thing. Luck and RG3 are the gamble.

It will involve 3-4 #1 picks or it won't be worth it. I also see a 2 or a 3 thrown in as well.

[Jaric]

If you look at a combination of what is posted above, that is close to how it plays out. Actual dollars spent first 3 years 70.2 million or 23.2 per year. The #'s above are the actual dollar figures involved in his contract if the option bonus is picked up. If he makes the 69 million in 3 years as reported, it is 21 in the final 2, but again, the information above are the actual #'s.

I must confess, I'm fairly ignorant about the details of how contracts work, especially once the salary cap gets involved.

I was just going off media reports, so I'm sure this info is more accurate.

Contract details aside though, I still think it's the height of optimism to think he's going to play into his 40s at the same level we've grown accustomed to.

[oldunclemark]

It is impossible to trade him.

If you look at a combination of what is posted above, that is close to how it plays out. Actual dollars spent first 3 years 70.2 million or 23.2 per year. The #'s above are the actual dollar figures involved in his contract if the option bonus is picked up. If he makes the 69 million in 3 years as reported, it is 21 in the final 2, but again, the information above are the actual #'s.

It will involve 3-4 #1 picks or it won't be worth it. I also see a 2 or a 3 thrown in as well.

We have no chance of getting four No.1 picks from the same team.

If Cleveland trades with us and Takes Andrew Luck....why would they also give away their future to build around him.?

The offer wont be more than Cleveland's 1st 3 picks (#4, #26 and No. 37 ) THIS year..

I would take that.....those 4 selections (we'd retain No, 33) would fill all our needs.

..we'd look for our QB of the future in the future

[FireJimCaldwell]

I must confess, I'm fairly ignorant about the details of how contracts work, especially once the salary cap gets involved.

I was just going off media reports, so I'm sure this info is more accurate.

Contract details aside though, I still think it's the height of optimism to think he's going to play into his 40s at the same level we've grown accustomed to.

I agree that there should be some gradual decline, but I'm also wondering how limited he's been over the past 4 years since that Washington game, so part of me thinks he could come back better than the past 4 years, and then decline from there. We also do not exactly what effect this season has had on him mentally. He may have enjoyed the time away with his family/twins, etc, it may have given him a preview of life without football and he might hate that part of it and wish to play as long as he can. We just don't know at this point.

[FireJimCaldwell]

We have no chance of getting four No.1 picks from the same team.

If Cleveland trades with us and Takes Andrew Luck....why would they also give away their future to build around him.?

The offer wont be more than Cleveland's 1st 3 picks (#4, #26 and No. 37 ) THIS year..

I would take that.....those 4 selections (we'd retain No, 33) would fill all our needs.

..we'd look for our QB of the future in the future

I don't even think that offer gets the Colts on the phone to talk about it. That isn't even much better than what they got out of Atlanta for the rights to Julius Jones. If they are interested in moving up to select Luck it will cost them more than that, and in the very least next year's # 1.

[Bond Shane]

The fairytale story for all Peyton fans and in many ways would make life easier for the management would be Luck wanting himself out of Colts. Then we can trade and draft all the good players we need.

Of course the premise is Peyton being fully healthy.

[Jaric]

I agree that there should be some gradual decline, but I'm also wondering how limited he's been over the past 4 years since that Washington game, so part of me thinks he could come back better than the past 4 years, and then decline from there. We also do not exactly what effect this season has had on him mentally. He may have enjoyed the time away with his family/twins, etc, it may have given him a preview of life without football and he might hate that part of it and wish to play as long as he can. We just don't know at this point.

All true. If it were me, and I just had twins, neck surgery, and more money than I could count I wouldn't even have to think twice about what to do.

But then again, I'm not Peyton Manning (as far as you people know...)

[Esquire59]

I thought the title of the thread was sort of a call for "finish this sentence..."

Mine would be "Trading the first pick...would be the dumbest thing our organization has ever done."

Luck's coming to Indy folks and leading this team for 15 years, accept it, embrace it.

[jskinnz]

if this were the case there would be no need to look back, just look to the endzone cause Peyton just threw 400 yards and 6 TDs on our defense. See your wrong, if Peyton is healthy this is a sure thing, infact Peytons been a sure thing is entire career, of course with the exception of this year.

Please do not tell me I am wrong.

Manning was a sure thing. Is he any more? Who knows? Even if he is still a sure thing, do we know how much longer that will be the case?

[icf]

I would take that.....those 4 selections (we'd retain No, 33) would fill all our needs. ..we'd look for our QB of the future in the future

They've got a lot more holes then what those 4 selections are going to fill......This teams needs a lot -- especially depending on what they do with Mathis & Wayne.

Somehow people want to play the "Luck might be a bust" card -- when talking about him being #1....but picks @ 4, 22, 33 & 37 are going to all come in and fill the Colts needs?!?! That logic makes no sense at all.

If the Colts were to trade that #1 pick -- they would get a lot more than Cleveland's 2 1st round and their 2nd round picks. That offer would likely generate one funny Tweet from Irsay. Now if Cleveland wants to have that as a starting point and then throw in a couple of #1's down the road (say 2013 & 2015) that's another story.

[JoKeR]

And the fact is no one knows if luck well be able to play at all.

We have a pretty good idea.

[jedi.creech]

Some people have a problem understanding this, so maybe this will help. Imagine a piece of Swiss Cheese (the Colts)... now putting your finger through just one of those holes, does not really help the fact there are many holes still there.... Okay now put 4 fingers in the piece of cheese... Yes you still have a few holes left, but not as many as before.... If this is a "rebuilding" year, I would like to have as many pieces of building blocks to build with as possible, having one block just isn't that "constructive".. now sit that one block aside, and well thats even less tools to build with

[JoKeR]

Some people have a problem understanding this, so maybe this will help. Imagine a piece of Swiss Cheese (the Colts)... now putting your finger through just one of those holes, does not really help the fact there are many holes still there.... Okay now put 4 fingers in the piece of cheese... Yes you still have a few holes left, but not as many as before.... If this is a "rebuilding" year, I would like to have as many pieces of building blocks to build with as possible, having one block just isn't that "constructive".. now sit that one block aside, and well thats even less tools to build with

Picks 2 through 7 don't build the practice squad.

[CR91]

Do some research this surgery would make it stronger when he comes back, so Peytons been playin hurt for so long, now that he's healthy sounds even more scary. but like I said if we used 8 picks(1st and 2nd rd) over the next 2 years on a olinemen, maybe a WR, then rest on defense, I would be willing to take my chances.

you must be a gambler if your willing to accept a 36 year old qb with 3 neck surgeries and a whole year of rust without a backup plan. dont get me wrong, i love peyton and what hes meant to the colts and i would love to see him still playing for us, but im also a colts fan and i dont want to see this franchise fall again because peyton cant play.

[Jaric]

Some people have a problem understanding this, so maybe this will help. Imagine a piece of Swiss Cheese (the Colts)... now putting your finger through just one of those holes, does not really help the fact there are many holes still there.... Okay now put 4 fingers in the piece of cheese... Yes you still have a few holes left, but not as many as before.... If this is a "rebuilding" year, I would like to have as many pieces of building blocks to build with as possible, having one block just isn't that "constructive".. now sit that one block aside, and well thats even less tools to build with

Those holes are where the flavor comes from.

[OldSchoolColt]

People who want to trade the pick think that we could just get an almost as good quarter back in a couple years. Most people say that another QB has not come along since that last Peyton Manning or Elway, man I hate Elway. Good enough QB? If we had traded down on Peyton and got Ryan Leaf, he would have been "good enough" right? How many QBs have been drafted that would have been "good enough" as Peyton? Few to none. This team is built around a top passer and needs Luck period. It is not sound logic to build around an iffy QB for 0 - 3 years and be forced to take what ever QB the draft offers us in the later first round down the road. Without Manning, we can afford to keep the proven talent you are looking for in the draft over the next several years.

[jedi.creech]

Those holes are where the flavor comes from.

LOL nice

[stubley1]

I am completely with you. I think we can get a lot more from trading Andrew Luck than drafting him and losing potential All-Stars. I think Luck will be a solid quarterback, but we all ready have one. Why not bring up another quarterback under Peyton Manning and give him a defense to help. I think we trade the pick and look after a solid defensive front or even a consistent secondary. We need to look at other options instead of putting all of our eggs in one basket, even though it's a couple years down the road.

[Blueblazes]

I would not do this, but it's interesting. We get a competent QB through free agency (no great QBs would be available but competent QBs may be-just very average). We trade the #1 pick for Cleveland's #4 and their #22 and their very high 2nd round pick. If Peyton proves to be healthy, we trade Peyton for a team's top ten pick this year and their top pick in next year's draft. We then take Blackmon, Khalil, the best LB coming out of college with the first Peyton pick and 2 DL this year in the early 2nd round. Next year, with our first rounder we get a shot possibly at the #2 QB in next year's draft with the 2nd Peyton pick and another good player in the first round with our normal 1st round pick.

Wouldn't do this, but it's interesting.

[ConBro]

luck is so way overhyped. remember the past three years? what has those top qb's done. nothing really. has any one of them won a superbowl yet? nope. and they were supposed to be the next great "elway, marino, manning, etc" they do this every year and hype up the top qb of the class. look at the ones that have won a superbowl the past few years were they picked #1 besides manning? eli wasn technicaly 1, big ben was lower, brady much later, brad johnson wasnt a 1, drew brees wasnt a 1. so yes trade the pick and if it is cleveland and blackmon is sitting there at 4 take him then pick up the qb from oklahoma at 22.

Apparently you are not familiar with a man named Mel Kiper Jr. None of those "past few years" picks were as hyped as Luck, and for good reason-- none of them are as GOOD as Luck. Kiper puts Luck just under John Elway as the greatest QB prospect he has EVER seen. ELWAY-- not Manning. Kiper has been doing this since the late 70s if you still doubt.

http://articles.businessinsider.com/2011-10-07/sports/30253484_1_andrew-luck-espn-draft-nfl-draft

[JoKeR]

Not to worry. There will be another "Greatest prospect since Red Grange" available next year and the year after that and the year after that and ...

No there wont. Barkley will be eligible but that's about it.

[rollman31]

If we trade with the Browns, we'll need to get them to sweeten the deal. While two first rounders looks generous on paper, the Browns come out ahead in value on the draft pick chart (Colts = 2,580 vs. Browns = 3,000). Since we're in a position to assist a cursed franchise that may be in desperation, we should negotiate for more--maybe their first round picks from 2012 (at #4, not #22) and 2013 (very likely to be somewhere between #1 & #8 next year)?

Also, factor in the Redskins who have two QB's (Grossman and Beck) and neither are good. Daniel Snyder loves the "unknown" and may be willing to give us a king's ransom, or at least start a bidding war.

[kalev]

Bottom line is that QB was only 1 of the positions the Colts were weak at this year

The desperately need to fill some holes in their O-line, Defense and Special Teams

Even if they take Luck and he turns out to be amazing, they will still be lacking in those areas

The old adage of "defense wins championships" has been tested this year, but I think it can be said with some certainly, that it at least plays a major role in winning a championship regardless of who is in the QB spot

[T.j. Moyer]

Yes if Peyton is not fully healthy u must draft Luck. However, if Peyton's healthy u trade pick for these reasons:

1. Irsay has already said if Manning is healthy he will be QB, Luck would sit and that trading pick would generate 3 to 4 more possible starters at other positions just in this years draft alone. Not to mention picks that would b for next year that would generate another 2 to 3 starters. With our own picks and picks from trade you could practically replace all starters on offense or defense within two years.

2. If we draft Luck, and cut Manning what r we truly guaranteeing. Nothing but full blown rebuilding stage which means we lose for the next three to four years since we will not have a strong enough team around Luck.

3. Cutting manning still has cap ramifications and cutting other veterans doesn't save much cap space for their signing bonuses being escalated. Cap savings would not happen till Lucks second year. Then what try to fill holes through FA. We saw how that worked for Philly and Washington.

4. Most of the premier QBs in league right now were not highly regarded as Luck, but we're developed within their respective organizations. Luck is the most ready right now,but that doesn't mean another QB is not going to be able to be developed up to Lucks caliber or even surpassing it.

5. Luck has had the benefit of a great OL and running game as well that most of his passes have been off of play action we currently r nowhere near that with our team.

6. Every fan has complained about colts being too conservative for the previous 12 years. With coaching and schemes we play. Luck may be the safe bet but why not trade and build the team around manning in a different way with a strong defense and enable the defense to be young through the rest of mannings playing years and then his eventual replacement will not have to burden the load he carries. heck the Steelers and big Ben have 1 more SB win and more deep playoff runs then we have had. I think with the change in management coming that a thinking and the way the team is built needs to change with it. With Luck most likely we would be the same kind of team we are now offense extremely talented but not good enough on defense to make to playoff runs and Super Bowl wins.