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Passing On Luck Would Be Foolish


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As much as people want Manning to play for 5 years (me included) we just have to face the facts hes getting old and his health is an issue. There are many people on here who want to draft a different QB or not one at all but there wont be a player who is like Luck for years. Luck is the most pro ready prospect in the draft, he is one of the best college prospects next to Elway, and his intagibles are just something you cant pass on. His accuracy is great, he is very intelligent, calls his own plays, very athletic, keeps his eyes down feild, can sense pressure, and his throw on the run is crazy good. Also how lucky (no pun intended) are we to have Luck stay in school and the next year we tank and go 2-14.

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As much as people want Manning to play for 5 years (me included) we just have to face the facts hes getting old and his health is an issue. There are many people on here who want to draft a different QB or not one at all but there wont be a player who is like Luck for years. Luck is the most pro ready prospect in the draft, he is one of the best college prospects next to Elway, and his intagibles are just something you cant pass on. His accuracy is great, he is very intelligent, calls his own plays, very athletic, keeps his eyes down feild, can sense pressure, and his throw on the run is crazy good. Also how lucky (no pun intended) are we to have Luck stay in school and the next year we tank and go 2-14.

Trust me, there will be another "greatest college prospect ever" in two years or four years just like there always is.

Just ask "pro ready" quarterbacks Jimmy Clausen and Brady Quinn

http://www.clanram.c...-history-40326/

http://www.fantasyfo...t/us/508?id=508

http://www.reddit.co...s_that_so_many/

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Trust me, there will be another "greatest college prospect ever" in two years or four years just like there always is.

Just ask "pro ready" quarterbacks Jimmy Clausen and Brady Quinn

http://www.clanram.c...-history-40326/

http://www.fantasyfo...t/us/508?id=508

http://www.reddit.co...s_that_so_many/

There is a difference between being pro ready and being compared to John Elway coming out of college. The only QB that has even been close to elway is manning and look how those 2 came out. Luck is pro ready and has great intagibles similar to what elway and manning possessed. Every year there is a pro ready prospect but there is a great prospect every decade.

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Trust me, there will be another "greatest college prospect ever" in two years or four years just like there always is.

Just ask "pro ready" quarterbacks Jimmy Clausen and Brady Quinn

http://www.clanram.c...-history-40326/

http://www.fantasyfo...t/us/508?id=508

http://www.reddit.co...s_that_so_many/

I don't know if you're being sarcastic or if you are actually saying Clausen and Quinn are even in the same ballpark as Luck. If its the latter you have just proved exactly why the Colts shouldn't pass on Luck.

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Drafting someone else at #1 overall would indeed be foolish. But not listening to offers for that pick would be at least equally foolish. Sure, Luck could be nice insurance that we maintain an elite presence at the most important position in the game for 15 more years. But there's no guarantee of success even for such a well regarded prospect.

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Trade the No,.1 pick overall to Cleveland for their two No.1 (#4 and 26) and their No. 2 (#37)

Enter the draft with No. 4, No. 26, No. 33 (ours) and No. 37..

..with No. 26. No. 33 and No. 37 address our needs at O-line, cornerback and wide receiver (assuming that Wayne & Garcon cant both be resigned)

..and with the No.4 pick in the draft..take Robert Griffin III..

/////problems solved...

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The talent level is a big drop off after Luck in this draft. Thats why i would rather just take luck first overall. But trading down does have its perks with more picks. I really like that LB coming out of NC Zach Brown i think is his name he would be perfect for our team and be a playmaker in our defense, but i just don't know if the front office would consider LB a big need at this point.

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The talent level is a big drop off after Luck in this draft. Thats why i would rather just take luck first overall. But trading down does have its perks with more picks. I really like that LB coming out of NC Zach Brown i think is his name he would be perfect for our team and be a playmaker in our defense, but i just don't know if the front office would consider LB a big need at this point.

I question that the talent level drops off after Luck..

We've discussed several boys who will start right away...OSU's Blackmom, for example

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Trade the No,.1 pick overall to Cleveland for their two No.1 (#4 and 26) and their No. 2 (#37)

Enter the draft with No. 4, No. 26, No. 33 (ours) and No. 37..

..with No. 26. No. 33 and No. 37 address our needs at O-line, cornerback and wide receiver (assuming that Wayne & Garcon cant both be resigned)

..and with the No.4 pick in the draft..take Robert Griffin III..

/////problems solved...

If Manning is healthy, I agree completely this is what we should do. We should trade down only to the 4th overall spot so we still have a shot at RGIII and Justin Blackmon. We could get both of their 1sts and 2nd probably the Browns 1st next year. Id do that trade in a heartbeat if we could still get RGIII.

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I question that the talent level drops off after Luck..

We've discussed several boys who will start right away...OSU's Blackmom, for example

Blackmon is not a Deep Threat though and that may hurt him, he will start right away but he reminds me of Boldin of the ravens. Is real physical WR but does not have the speed to be a Deep Threat. I just can't see taking a WR that high who can not stretch the field like other top picks that high up have to be able to do.

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If Manning is healthy, I agree completely this is what we should do. We should trade down only to the 4th overall spot so we still have a shot at RGIII and Justin Blackmon. We could get both of their 1sts and 2nd probably the Browns 1st next year. Id do that trade in a heartbeat if we could still get RGIII.

The thing people forget about RGIII is he is most likely the second pick, expect the rams to raffle off their pick to the highest bidder for someone that wants RGIII. So by the 4th pick he will most likely be gone by then.

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I agree passing on Luck would be foolish. An era is ending in Indianapolis. Era's are built around Quarterbacks, and Luck is the best guy in my opinion to build the next era around.

However, I do think that Irsay needs to have a Manning to Luck transitionary period in place. A 2 year transition would be perfect. Here's how I see this happening.

1. Rework Manning's contract to a 2 year cap friendly deal - also encourage other Colts vets to do the same. Once that contract is ended, Manning has the personal freedom to retire, pursue options in free agency. Or return to the Colts as a back-up or a player-coach type. But at this point it will be Luck's offense.

2. Draft Luck - Inform him that he will be sitting for 2 years at most, and that he will be getting the majority of snaps in pre-season, and some snaps when possible in the regular season.

3. Any offensive players drafted need to fit the mold for how the offense would be structured around Luck.

4. In training camp and practices, Manning can take his snaps with the old vets, like Wayne, Clark, Saturday, etc. Luck can take snaps with newly drafted WR, RB, TE, and OL. Players like Garcon, Collie, Tamme, and Brown who may still be with the Colts when the Luck era begins can split their practice snaps between Manning and Luck.

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Trade the No,.1 pick overall to Cleveland for their two No.1 (#4 and 26) and their No. 2 (#37)

Enter the draft with No. 4, No. 26, No. 33 (ours) and No. 37..

..with No. 26. No. 33 and No. 37 address our needs at O-line, cornerback and wide receiver (assuming that Wayne & Garcon cant both be resigned)

..and with the No.4 pick in the draft..take Robert Griffin III..

/////problems solved...

What about the other QB needy teams who might be interested in getting to # 2 or # 3 and taking RG3 there?

Problem not solved,

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I agree passing on Luck would be foolish. An era is ending in Indianapolis. Era's are built around Quarterbacks, and Luck is the best guy in my opinion to build the next era around.

However, I do think that Irsay needs to have a Manning to Luck transitionary period in place. A 2 year transition would be perfect. Here's how I see this happening.

1. Rework Manning's contract to a 2 year cap friendly deal - also encourage other Colts vets to do the same. Once that contract is ended, Manning has the personal freedom to retire, pursue options in free agency. Or return to the Colts as a back-up or a player-coach type. But at this point it will be Luck's offense.

2. Draft Luck - Inform him that he will be sitting for 2 years at most, and that he will be getting the majority of snaps in pre-season, and some snaps when possible in the regular season.

3. Any offensive players drafted need to fit the mold for how the offense would be structured around Luck.

4. In training camp and practices, Manning can take his snaps with the old vets, like Wayne, Clark, Saturday, etc. Luck can take snaps with newly drafted WR, RB, TE, and OL. Players like Garcon, Collie, Tamme, and Brown who may still be with the Colts when the Luck era begins can split their practice snaps between Manning and Luck.

I like the idea, definitely need to do something if Manning comes back to make the transition a smooth one. The Colts organization does not need a situation like Green Bay had with Favre/Rodgers.

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I like the idea, definitely need to do something if Manning comes back to make the transition a smooth one. The Colts organization does not need a situation like Green Bay had with Favre/Rodgers.

I agree strongly with avoiding a Favre/Rodger like drama. In fact Ted Thompson, the GM of the Packers said that when he traded Favre, that he knew he had a few elite years left, but that he understood that for good of the Packers long term future, Rodgers had to take over.

I believe the Colts and Jim Irsay will be in a similar position with Manning/Luck. If Manning gets healthy does he have maybe 4 or 5 years of elite play left? I fully believe so. But the best option for the Colts longterm future is two trade away Peyton after 2 more years.

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Trade the No,.1 pick overall to Cleveland for their two No.1 (#4 and 26) and their No. 2 (#37)

Enter the draft with No. 4, No. 26, No. 33 (ours) and No. 37..

..with No. 26. No. 33 and No. 37 address our needs at O-line, cornerback and wide receiver (assuming that Wayne & Garcon cant both be resigned)

..and with the No.4 pick in the draft..take Robert Griffin III..

/////problems solved...

Recognizing the fallacy in doing so (but doing it anyway),

This trade in 1998 nets Charles Woodson, Alan Faneca, Corey Chavous, and Robert Holcomne for Peyton Manning.

Aside from Flozell Adams being drafted immediately after Robert Holcombe, each player picked is probably the best of themselves and the four players picked after them, so you've got good quality being picked.

I don't think those four players, who all had productive careers, would make us better for the next 15 years than Luck could (and that's assuming Luck never reaches Manning's level).

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As much as people want Manning to play for 5 years (me included) we just have to face the facts hes getting old and his health is an issue. There are many people on here who want to draft a different QB or not one at all but there wont be a player who is like Luck for years.

Yes, there will be. There will always be college players who are the next big thing and will be the most highly touted prospect since ___________. It is absolutely baffling to me how many of you seem to genuinely believe that Luck has no peers. That's just ridiculous. Why do you believe that? Because his name is all over ESPN? Are any of you pro football scouts who are trained to evaluate players' potential?

Oh, also, to all you who keep spouting that he's the "best since Elway"... Do you know how old Elway was when he won his first Super Bowl? 37. If he had been your QB, you would have already given him up as "over the hill."

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Other teams go to the playoffs and win Super Bowls without a "once-in-a-generation" QB. The Ravens do pretty well with Joe Flacco and he's not even the best player on their team.

But it's foolish to freak out and dump a guy who legitimately is legendary (Peyton) in favor of a guy who might be (Luck). Assuming Peyton heals up, he's not at a greater risk for neck injury than he was before the surgery. We can still expect him to play like Peyton for the next four years. If in four years we can't get a Luck but instead have to settle for a Rodgers or a Brees, I'm okay with that.

If Peyton is healthy, they have to trade the pick.

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Yes, there will be. There will always be college players who are the next big thing and will be the most highly touted prospect since ___________. It is absolutely baffling to me how many of you seem to genuinely believe that Luck has no peers. That's just ridiculous. Why do you believe that? Because his name is all over ESPN? Are any of you pro football scouts who are trained to evaluate players' potential?

Oh, also, to all you who keep spouting that he's the "best since Elway"... Do you know how old Elway was when he won his first Super Bowl? 37. If he had been your QB, you would have already given him up as "over the hill."

Best prospect since elway. Not saying he is going to have the same exact career as elway.

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Recognizing the fallacy in doing so (but doing it anyway),

This trade in 1998 nets Charles Woodson, Alan Faneca, Corey Chavous, and Robert Holcomne for Peyton Manning.

Aside from Flozell Adams being drafted immediately after Robert Holcombe, each player picked is probably the best of themselves and the four players picked after them, so you've got good quality being picked.

I don't think those four players, who all had productive careers, would make us better for the next 15 years than Luck could (and that's assuming Luck never reaches Manning's level).

Agreed. If there is a guy that you think is a franchise level QB, as most who have scouted Luck suggest he is, there is almost no possible way to get a comparable return in a trade for him. No matter how many players you get back, you virtually have to take Luck.

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There is no guarantee those draft picks become great players. Same goes for luck.

Odds say differently.If you do the math,then the choice is easy.You must follow all the calculations and various angles.The safe thing to do is trade down and collect other top tier future draft selections.The odds of luck busting out are greater than that scenario,which i just mentioned.WE MUST TAKE THE PICKS!

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Odds say differently.If you do the math,then the choice is easy.You must follow all the calculations and various angles.The safe thing to do is trade down and collect other top tier future draft selections.The odds of luck busting out are greater than that scenario,which i just mentioned.WE MUST TAKE THE PICKS!

It's the law of averages you're looking for. It's why investors always tell you to diversify. It's the "safe" way to go.

But if you look at the risk behind Luck and compare it to the perceived reward, he is the safest SINGLE PICK in a while.

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Yes, there will be. There will always be college players who are the next big thing and will be the most highly touted prospect since ___________. It is absolutely baffling to me how many of you seem to genuinely believe that Luck has no peers. That's just ridiculous. Why do you believe that? Because his name is all over ESPN? Are any of you pro football scouts who are trained to evaluate players' potential?

Oh, also, to all you who keep spouting that he's the "best since Elway"... Do you know how old Elway was when he won his first Super Bowl? 37. If he had been your QB, you would have already given him up as "over the hill."

There may be another highly touted QB to come out since _________, as you have mentioned. The odds are that he would be the first ick in the draft. What are the odds that we would have that pick?
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It's the law of averages you're looking for. It's why investors always tell you to diversify. It's the "safe" way to go.

But if you look at the risk behind Luck and compare it to the perceived reward, he is the safest SINGLE PICK in a while.

I'm currently watching JC- 'THE THING' on baidu.I'm starting to think that the thing(luck supporters)got to you too~.I don't think that's something the real 'THAT GUY' would say! :lol:

I'll quote 'MAC' from the movie:"I know that i'm human(manning supporter),and i'm guessing some of you must still be human too,because if all of you were those THINGS(luck supporters),then you would just attack me right now.Those THINGS(luck supporters)just wanna hide until draft day and blend in,but once we get our new 'GM' we're gonna' find out who's the 'THING' once and for all. :lol:

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Odds say differently.If you do the math,then the choice is easy.You must follow all the calculations and various angles.The safe thing to do is trade down and collect other top tier future draft selections.The odds of luck busting out are greater than that scenario,which i just mentioned.WE MUST TAKE THE PICKS!

What if Luck turns out to be exactly who he has been projected to be and you passed on him? The Colts would be the Portland Trailblazers of the NFL.

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I'm currently watching JC- 'THE THING' on baidu.I'm starting to think that the thing(luck supporters)got to you too~.I don't think that's something the real 'THAT GUY' would say! :lol:

I'll quote 'MAC' from the movie:"I know that i'm human(manning supporter),and i'm guessing some of you must still be human too,because if all of you were those THINGS(luck supporters),then you would just attack me right now.Those THINGS(luck supporters)just wanna hide until draft day and blend in,but once we get our new 'GM' we're gonna' find out who's the 'THING' once and for all. :lol:

Ha!

If you look at my post history, you'll see I've actually followed a pro-Luck agenda. I wouldn't mind a trade down, but Luck is a solid choice, in my opinion.

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I'm currently watching JC- 'THE THING' on baidu.I'm starting to think that the thing(luck supporters)got to you too~.I don't think that's something the real 'THAT GUY' would say!

I'll quote 'MAC' from the movie:"I know that i'm human(manning supporter),and i'm guessing some of you must still be human too,because if all of you were those THINGS(luck supporters),then you would just attack me right now.Those THINGS(luck supporters)just wanna hide until draft day and blend in,but once we get our new 'GM' we're gonna' find out who's the 'THING' once and for all.

............ Fail

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I disagree with the OP only by the fact that it wouldn't be foolish not to take Luck, it would be the worst decision of our franchise's proud history. We're taking Luck in the draft, don't know why some people argue we won't. I can empathize with folks that can't face reality that, at best, Manning's career is in serious decline. Even generally healed and nerve regenerated, you can't expect a 36 year old to come back and not experience decline in skills as time goes on. See Marino's last few average at best years. We're so lucky to have Luck fall into our hands. No decade of 6-10 to 8-8 seasons praying someday our legend (GOAT) QB is replaced.

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The thing people forget about RGIII is he is most likely the second pick, expect the rams to raffle off their pick to the highest bidder for someone that wants RGIII. So by the 4th pick he will most likely be gone by then.

This.

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I disagree with the OP only by the fact that it wouldn't be foolish not to take Luck, it would be the worst decision of our franchise's proud history. We're taking Luck in the draft, don't know why some people argue we won't. I can empathize with folks that can't face reality that, at best, Manning's career is in serious decline. Even generally healed and nerve regenerated, you can't expect a 36 year old to come back and not experience decline in skills as time goes on. See Marino's last few average at best years. We're so lucky to have Luck fall into our hands. No decade of 6-10 to 8-8 seasons praying someday our legend (GOAT) QB is replaced.

This is exactly right. I want to pull my hair out and SCREAM at some people's logic on these boards at times.... You listen to people like Mel Kiper and the rest, then watch the kid play in a bowl game, throwing over 300 yeards with 4 incompletions all night, but then you get on this board and someone says "he could be a BUST". Apparently people on this board know more about scouting players than MEL KIPER does. Kiper's only been doing it since 1978, and projects Luck to be JUST UNDER Elway in QB skills. But people on this board know more about it than Kiper, so I don't know WHO to trust.

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This is exactly right. I want to pull my hair out and SCREAM at some people's logic on these boards at times.... You listen to people like Mel Kiper and the rest, then watch the kid play in a bowl game, throwing over 300 yeards with 4 incompletions all night, but then you get on this board and someone says "he could be a BUST". Apparently people on this board know more about scouting players than MEL KIPER does. Kiper's only been doing it since 1978, and projects Luck to be JUST UNDER Elway in QB skills. But people on this board know more about it than Kiper, so I don't know WHO to trust.

We are Lucky to have the chance to get Luck..true

But this is not the best scenario for Andrew Luck...

..we're drafting him to replace a proven performer..not to fill a vacancy...where he cant lose

I've seen him riddle Notre Dame and Oklahoma State..but college football is badly watered down..

If he bumpes Mannng to the street..

He's got to come in and play very well or this is a disaster.....for us and for him

I dont know how even Mel Kiper is sure

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We are Lucky to have the chance to get Luck..true

But this is not the best scenario for Andrew Luck...

..we're drafting him to replace a proven performer..not to fill a vacancy...where he cant lose

I've seen him riddle Notre Dame and Oklahoma State..but college football is badly watered down..

If he bumpes Mannng to the street..

He's got to come in and play very well or this is a disaster.....for us and for him

I dont know how even Mel Kiper is sure

Just a respectful retort, I don't believe Luck needs to be Peyton Manning immediately. There will never, ever be another Peyton Manning. Luck has to be an elite level QB for our Colts. Peyton's time in the NFL is, sadly, either over now or at its final stage. Expecting Luck to be a bust is about as risky as expecting Peyton Manning to come back at 37 and play like he did in 2003-2009 (my opinion of the height of his excellence). Neither are likely to happen. But, even if Manning comes back and plays at an elite level, we HAVE to look at the next 15 years. We can address the next 15 years with Luck. Or we can gamble on Peyton's health and skill-level for 2, 3, 4 years then pray that another "elite" level QB prospect is available. The clear, safe path is to address the issue now before we're stymied in mediocrity like the Dolphins, Broncos, and (before Harbaugh) 49'ers, all of who spent more than a decade trying to replace a legendary, elite QB. I use the term "elite" because that's the only way you consistently threaten to win super bowls in the NFL. You have to have an elite-level QB to do so. You'll have outliers who make it with average QBs (Bucs with Johnson, Ravens wih Dilfer). But this is a QB league. The rules even further favor the pocket-passing, intellectual QB that Luck is.

I feel so strongly about this because I lived in the heck hole of South Florida when Marino's skills declined sharply over the last few years of his career (to the point fans were calling for change). Then I saw, and still see today, the Dolphins trying to replace Marino. They tried to draft. They tried free agency. They tried strong defense/average QB approach. All have failed, heck the 'fins have been largely abysmal as opposed to mediocre. By sheer, ahem, Luck, it appears very likely we in Indy and our nation of fans won't have to suffer through the misery I saw my 'fin-fan friends suffer through when I lived among them. You must draft Luck.

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There is a difference between being pro ready and being compared to John Elway coming out of college. The only QB that has even been close to elway is manning and look how those 2 came out. Luck is pro ready and has great intagibles similar to what elway and manning possessed. Every year there is a pro ready prospect but there is a great prospect every decade.

He's being compared to Elway only in terms of the hype surrounding him, not ability or play-style.

His play style has been compared to the likes of Bradshaw, Romo, and Matt Ryan. Bradshaw was the worst QB to ever win rings, and the latter two have arguably the most talented teams in the NFC but can never get out of the first round of the playoffs.

There are also "busts" like Cam Newton who turn out to post the greatest rookie QB stats of all-time.

There have been hotter prospects than Luck since Manning was drafted, but they are dismissed or simply forgotten because of how they turned out. What I do know is, every time Luck landed on a big stage, he lost. (His wins against USC are basically trivial, as they were on probation during that stretch.) Oh, and he's terrible on a microphone, as he sounds like he's trying to swallow peanut butter and talk at the same time.

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Trade the No,.1 pick overall to Cleveland for their two No.1 (#4 and 26) and their No. 2 (#37)

Enter the draft with No. 4, No. 26, No. 33 (ours) and No. 37..

..with No. 26. No. 33 and No. 37 address our needs at O-line, cornerback and wide receiver (assuming that Wayne & Garcon cant both be resigned)

..and with the No.4 pick in the draft..take Robert Griffin III..

/////problems solved...

I don't agree with the trade you put out there. In addition to the picks, I'd insist upon getting a need player from them as well ... DT Phil Taylor and backup QB Colt McCoy. If you go for just the picks, keep in mind that the odds are only 2 of 4 of those picks are likely to become solid key contributors. With Phil Taylor you would be filling one of the Colts most pressing areas of need with a known quantity that is looking to be a beastly good player.

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This is exactly right. I want to pull my hair out and SCREAM at some people's logic on these boards at times.... You listen to people like Mel Kiper and the rest, then watch the kid play in a bowl game, throwing over 300 yeards with 4 incompletions all night, but then you get on this board and someone says "he could be a BUST".

People who keep saying Luck could be a bust also fail to mention the fact that the guys the Colts would take with acquired picks have an equal bust risk and have a much lower potential return (except maybe RG3...who may not be there in a trade down).

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He's being compared to Elway only in terms of the hype surrounding him, not ability or play-style.

His play style has been compared to the likes of Bradshaw, Romo, and Matt Ryan. Bradshaw was the worst QB to ever win rings, and the latter two have arguably the most talented teams in the NFC but can never get out of the first round of the playoffs.

There are also "busts" like Cam Newton who turn out to post the greatest rookie QB stats of all-time.

There have been hotter prospects than Luck since Manning was drafted, but they are dismissed or simply forgotten because of how they turned out. What I do know is, every time Luck landed on a big stage, he lost. (His wins against USC are basically trivial, as they were on probation during that stretch.) Oh, and he's terrible on a microphone, as he sounds like he's trying to swallow peanut butter and talk at the same time.

I know!This dude losses every big game in competes in.I think an unlucky(PUN INTENDED) team will soon find out about his limited skillset and choke mentality.He has an weak arm(moderate at best),can't make all the big throws,and likely to get seriously hurt with his scrambling once he reaches where the big boys play(NFL).I just don't see this GREAT QUARTERBACK everyone else sees.

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This is exactly right. I want to pull my hair out and SCREAM at some people's logic on these boards at times.... You listen to people like Mel Kiper and the rest, then watch the kid play in a bowl game, throwing over 300 yeards with 4 incompletions all night, but then you get on this board and someone says "he could be a BUST". Apparently people on this board know more about scouting players than MEL KIPER does. Kiper's only been doing it since 1978, and projects Luck to be JUST UNDER Elway in QB skills. But people on this board know more about it than Kiper, so I don't know WHO to trust.

So logic states that we should pass on multiple high draft picks for the next three years,just for this one questionable player?You are aware that there's other ways to build a championship caliber team other selecting a quarterback,right?If we trade this pick,it will be a historical draft day event.The biggest in history.The type of trade that will have an immediate impact on our franchise.BTW:Since when did mel kiper's opinions matter?The 'LOGICAL' choice is to trade down and recieve picks to rebuild our franchise from the gound up.

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