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What's behind Lucks decision making?


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He was simply trying to force plays that weren't there.  As a QB, you win some of those risks.  You lose more of them.

 

The turnovers on forced balls tend to happen more when the QB is under intense pressure/durress.

 

If you give Luck a clean pocket and 4-5 seconds to throw, he's not going to force anything; he's going to pick you apart.  If you allow Luck to get rid of the ball quickly with a clean pocket (see the entirety of the 4th quarter), he's going to pick you apart. 

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I believe he has zero faith in the defense so he tries to do too much and feels like he HAS to come back to the bench with points or else his D will be out there giving up a nice long slow drive so he forces things, makes dumb decision, and turnovers happen. Heck, the throw to Dorsett today was insane dangerous

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I think part of it is lack of timing, game-experience with his new WRs.  Last week, either Luck just made really bad throws when Dorsett was the target or he and Dorsett were just off.  Today, they seemed to be much more in sync (though, small sample size with 2 of 3 targets for completion).  I don't think he and A. Johnson are totally in sync yet, either.  Luck has looked best when targeting TY and Moncrief, which would make sense as he has been with them the longest of his WRs.

 

I think part of it is Pep trying to figure out how to use his weaponry.  We have not utilized our TEs very much, and have (IMO) done a poor job of switching things up throughout the game.  If this team could figure out how to sub on the fly, and mix 2-3 TE packages with 4 WR packages and combinations between on the same drive, I don't know how defenses would be able to keep up.

 

I think part of it is the OL play.  Luck's 2nd pick today, he should have been sacked 1.8 seconds after hiking the ball because Thornton got beaten so badly.

 

I think part of it is Luck just being rusty -- in the first 2 games he threw a lot of balls too high or underthrew them -- he seemed to struggle more with underthrows than too high throws today.

 

I think part of it may be the WRs/TEs/RBs getting used to playing with eachother (we have an entirely new set of RBs and 2 new WRs playing major roles).  For example, the first pick Luck threw vs. NYJ (shown in this video http://www.newyorkjets.com/videos/videos/Calvin-Pryor-Intercepts-Andrew-Luck/68a17a3a-591b-49e7-b281-d77df6c543bc) -- I cannot tell for the life of me if he threw that ball behind Andre Johnson, or if he was intending to hit Dwayne Allen -- it looks like it would have been right on the money if Allen was the intended target.  

 

I think part of it is a lack of balance, it seems like (as has been the case to some extent in the past with Pep), we are very predictable or we don't mix things up well within drives.  For example, I think Luck threw 18 or 19 straight passes in week 1 vs. Buffalo.  Then there will be drives where it seems very predictable when they run the ball.  I think we need to balance our offense a little more, or at least do better at mixing things up so we can disguise our plays -- it seems to me as if other teams know pretty well when we'll pass vs. when we'll rush.

 

Finally, I think part of it may be Luck trying to do too much.  Our secondary has been depleted, other teams have been able to move the ball on our D and sustain fairly long drives (we have lost the time of possession battle each of our first 3 games -- I am pretty sure we were the best in the league in terms of winning this battle last year).  Luck, IMO, threw a lot of picks in his first 3 years for the same reason Manning threw a lot of his picks when he was there -- that is, there is lack of trust in the defense, forcing the QB to feel the need to score on every drive.  To me, the 2nd pick Luck threw today was just a forced ball that should not have been thrown, but at that point in the game, he might have felt like everything was on his shoulder and he had to take the risk to force a ball in there to keep our defense off the field.

 

Hopefully, none of these poorly thrown balls are due to a hidden injury. 

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I believe he has zero faith in the defense so he tries to do too much and feels like he HAS to come back to the bench with points or else his D will be out there giving up a nice long slow drive so he forces things, makes dumb decision, and turnovers happen. Heck, the throw to Dorsett today was insane dangerous

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000540029/Colts-Andrew-Luck-finds-Phillip-Dorsett-for-35-yard-TD

 

I, personally, thought that was one heck of a throw.  Dorsett was past his man with a safety in pursuit.  If Luck put that ball 5 yards deep in the endzone, Dorsett would have either gotten crushed or that safety would have had a play on the ball.  Luck, instead, put it right where Dorsett was protected and he put enough touch on it where only Dorsett was in position to make a play.

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Two of the interceptions in the Jets game were caused by pressure from an untouched rusher.  The third was also from pressure when his arm was hit as he was deliverying the ball.   The fumble in the Jets game was a nice strip by the defender after Andrew was once again escaping from pressure.

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http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000540029/Colts-Andrew-Luck-finds-Phillip-Dorsett-for-35-yard-TD

I, personally, thought that was one heck of a throw. Dorsett was past his man with a safety in pursuit. If Luck put that ball 5 yards deep in the endzone, Dorsett would have either gotten crushed or that safety would have had a play on the ball. Luck, instead, put it right where Dorsett was protected and he put enough touch on it where only Dorsett was in position to make a play.

That's a nice way of saying he under threw it lol. But regardless I'm glad it was a td

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http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000540029/Colts-Andrew-Luck-finds-Phillip-Dorsett-for-35-yard-TD

 

I, personally, thought that was one heck of a throw.  Dorsett was past his man with a safety in pursuit.  If Luck put that ball 5 yards deep in the endzone, Dorsett would have either gotten crushed or that safety would have had a play on the ball.  Luck, instead, put it right where Dorsett was protected and he put enough touch on it where only Dorsett was in position to make a play.

 

Totally agree.

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A lot of Luck's turnovers come from forcing balls into windows where it should not be forced..

 

The first couple years he had a problem throwing high.. Which isn't a bad thing, but he went through learning curve from College to Pros. 

 

However the one on one balls that get intercepted are not always on the QB. They're taught to put it where their guy can go make a play, and I haven't seen a whole lot of fierce competition from our WRs getting open much less trying to catch it. 

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Its the line

Agreed. Luck is having to accelerate everything and is not relaxed due to the frenzy on the OL right now.

 

At the same time, Indy showed much more positives when they switched to a fast paced short passing game which allowed Luck to get rid of the ball quickly.

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Agreed. Luck is having to accelerate everything and is not relaxed due to the frenzy on the OL right now.

 

At the same time, Indy showed much more positives when they switched to a fast paced short passing game which allowed Luck to get rid of the ball quickly.

Now the question is, does Pep see this and adjust accordingly.....Not sure I have faith in him to do that

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That's a nice way of saying he under threw it lol. But regardless I'm glad it was a td

 

No it isn't.  It is an honest way of me saying I think Luck put that ball in a perfect place for Dorsett to make a catch without giving the defenders a chance to make a play or without putting Dorsett in position to get crushed.

 

Dorsett had his man beat by several yards, to the point where his man wasn't able to turn around and make a play on the ball, but there was a safety pursuing fast -- if Luck throws that ball without having to make Dorsett come back to it (i.e., 5-7 yards into the endzone, there is a good chance the safety has a chance to make a play on the ball or that the safety has a chance to knock Dorsett's clock clean).

 

You see it a lot in the NFL, where balls are perfectly thrown to put only the WR in place to make a play on the ball.  That ball was thrown to the perfect place, not underthrown.

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Question is, would he with a Tom Brady O-line? I think not

 

Its the line

 

Probably still get blitzed and hit. Difference? Brady knows how to play the blitz, and their offensive scheme is designed to protect Brady - short passing game. Really the only way to get Brady is to get coverage sacks. You may be able to get him here and there on coverage sacks, but it's rare. He absolutely shredded the Bills last week by guess what? GETTING RID OF THE BALL..

 

Until Luck gets this figured out, which he did the last 9 minutes of the game, he's going to continue to get hit over and over. Luck is staring at undisguised blitzers, and is still wanting to hold onto the ball. That's on HIM. As I've said before him nor Pep is helping this OL, and is making them look much worse than they are.

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Now the question is, does Pep see this and adjust accordingly.....Not sure I have faith in him to do that

 

Luck is the one seeing it first hand. He has to see the blitz coming, we all do, yet he's not taking the check down, nor does he seem to be able to get in and out of the right play calls. I mean seriously, he's seeing 6 guys coming at him and he's still looking way down field. Screen? Hot route? Good lord, get rid of the damn football....

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Luck is the one seeing it first hand. He has to see the blitz coming, we all do, yet he's not taking the check down, nor does he seem to be able to get in and out of the right play calls. I mean seriously, he's seeing 6 guys coming at him and he's still looking way down field. Screen? Hot route? Good lord, get rid of the damn football....

Kurt Warner illustrated this perfectly during pregame. I've got some gripes with Peps situational play calling but as Warner illustrated on many of these blitzes that appear as if we only have a deep option it's just not true. There is a short to midrange check down built in. Warner illustrated on 3 different occasions between the Bills and Jets games that Luck ignores the checkdown choosing to go for the jugular. And what is funny is people call AJ washed up but he has been open to wide open a number of times on these check downs and the ball is not delivered to him. Got to show more patience and hit that check down more often. Hit it a couple times and then mix things up and strike deep.

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Kurt Warner illustrated this perfectly during pregame. I've got some gripes with Peps situational play calling but as Warner illustrated on many of these blitzes that appear as if we only have a deep option it's just not true. There is a short to midrange check down built in. Warner illustrated on 3 different occasions between the Bills and Jets games that Luck ignores the checkdown choosing to go for the jugular. And what is funny is people call AJ washed up but he has been open to wide open a number of times on these check downs and the ball is not delivered to him. Got to show more patience and hit that check down more often. Hit it a couple times and then mix things up and strike deep.

 

It happened a handful of times today. There was one play where Luck went deep downfield, incomplete out of the end zone. Well Gore came out of the backfield and was wide open, with two potential blockers in front of him. There were no rushers near him, he just never came to the check down. It's happened several times in each game so far.

 

I don't get why we can't just say "Luck isn't playing well" without having to shift the blame to someone else. There's plenty of blame to go around; the OL isn't playing well, etc. But a big part of it is Luck just being off, all on his own. 

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Can the Grigs/Pags issues and media be influencing Luck's play?

 

He did go out of his way to compliment Pagano in his post-game presser and say how much he loves playing for him.

 

I'm just reading this article: http://thebiglead.com/2015/09/22/andrew-luck-chuck-pagano-vs-ryan-grigson/

 

It's titled "Andrew Luck is Collateral Damage in Chuck Pagano vs. Ryan Grigson."

 

It compares our situation to the one in San Fran last year -- with Harbaugh and the FO having beef before and during the season and Kaepernick folding under the pressure to play for his coach's job.  I think Luck is far superior to Kaepernick, but I could definitely see him feeling the weight of the world on his shoulders with both he and Chuck being in contract years.  Luck has shown himself to be a professional, and has carried himself as such throughout his career so far, but being put in the middle of a fight between your coach (on-the-field boss) and your owner/GM (financial bosses) must not be easy for a young player.

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Kurt Warner illustrated this perfectly during pregame. I've got some gripes with Peps situational play calling but as Warner illustrated on many of these blitzes that appear as if we only have a deep option it's just not true. There is a short to midrange check down built in. Warner illustrated on 3 different occasions between the Bills and Jets games that Luck ignores the checkdown choosing to go for the jugular. And what is funny is people call AJ washed up but he has been open to wide open a number of times on these check downs and the ball is not delivered to him. Got to show more patience and hit that check down more often. Hit it a couple times and then mix things up and strike deep.

 

The last 9 minutes of the game by Luck was beautiful. He would take the snap, quickly scan the field, and the underneath route was wide open (Fleener). It's been there, as you said, the 2 games prior, but for whatever reason Luck has decided to make the most difficult throw out of his progressions. I DO NOT understand our lack of screens with our RB trio. All 3 are very good in space and would absolutely negate any pass rush by opposing defenses if ran a good handful of times a game.

 

As I stated in another post, people are so enamored with the Patriots and how much time Brady has, but are completely incompetent to the fact that Brady is rarely ever blitzed and if he is he knows immediately where to go and the ball is gone before he's touched. After a handful of times of getting burnt teams back off, sit 6-7 in coverage, and all of a sudden Brady "looks" like he has all the time in the world. Luck AND Pep aren't oblivious to making this work, especially with better skill position players than what Brady has, with the exception of Gronk. Again, I still can't believe Luck or Pep isn't saying "hey we need to shorten this up a bit and get these guys off us". We've got the running game figured out FINALLY but once the O (Pep and Luck) gets this - short game - teams will start backing off and Luck will be able to sit comfortably and pick them apart.

 

It happened a handful of times today. There was one play where Luck went deep downfield, incomplete out of the end zone. Well Gore came out of the backfield and was wide open, with two potential blockers in front of him. There were no rushers near him, he just never came to the check down. It's happened several times in each game so far.

 

I don't get why we can't just say "Luck isn't playing well" without having to shift the blame to someone else. There's plenty of blame to go around; the OL isn't playing well, etc. But a big part of it is Luck just being off, all on his own. 

 

To the bolded...

 

Because its blasphemy haha

 

It's really no different than when Manning was here, the guy could absolutely do no wrong. Everything has just sort of carried over.

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I think part of it is lack of timing, game-experience with his new WRs. Last week, either Luck just made really bad throws when Dorsett was the target or he and Dorsett were just off. Today, they seemed to be much more in sync (though, small sample size with 2 of 3 targets for completion). I don't think he and A. Johnson are totally in sync yet, either. Luck has looked best when targeting TY and Moncrief, which would make sense as he has been with them the longest of his WRs.

I think part of it is Pep trying to figure out how to use his weaponry. We have not utilized our TEs very much, and have (IMO) done a poor job of switching things up throughout the game. If this team could figure out how to sub on the fly, and mix 2-3 TE packages with 4 WR packages and combinations between on the same drive, I don't know how defenses would be able to keep up.

I think part of it is the OL play. Luck's 2nd pick today, he should have been sacked 1.8 seconds after hiking the ball because Thornton got beaten so badly.

I think part of it is Luck just being rusty -- in the first 2 games he threw a lot of balls too high or underthrew them -- he seemed to struggle more with underthrows than too high throws today.

I think part of it may be the WRs/TEs/RBs getting used to playing with eachother (we have an entirely new set of RBs and 2 new WRs playing major roles). For example, the first pick Luck threw vs. NYJ (shown in this video http://www.newyorkjets.com/videos/videos/Calvin-Pryor-Intercepts-Andrew-Luck/68a17a3a-591b-49e7-b281-d77df6c543bc) -- I cannot tell for the life of me if he threw that ball behind Andre Johnson, or if he was intending to hit Dwayne Allen -- it looks like it would have been right on the money if Allen was the intended target.

I think part of it is a lack of balance, it seems like (as has been the case to some extent in the past with Pep), we are very predictable or we don't mix things up well within drives. For example, I think Luck threw 18 or 19 straight passes in week 1 vs. Buffalo. Then there will be drives where it seems very predictable when they run the ball. I think we need to balance our offense a little more, or at least do better at mixing things up so we can disguise our plays -- it seems to me as if other teams know pretty well when we'll pass vs. when we'll rush.

Finally, I think part of it may be Luck trying to do too much. Our secondary has been depleted, other teams have been able to move the ball on our D and sustain fairly long drives (we have lost the time of possession battle each of our first 3 games -- I am pretty sure we were the best in the league in terms of winning this battle last year). Luck, IMO, threw a lot of picks in his first 3 years for the same reason Manning threw a lot of his picks when he was there -- that is, there is lack of trust in the defense, forcing the QB to feel the need to score on every drive. To me, the 2nd pick Luck threw today was just a forced ball that should not have been thrown, but at that point in the game, he might have felt like everything was on his shoulder and he had to take the risk to force a ball in there to keep our defense off the field.

Hopefully, none of these poorly thrown balls are due to a hidden injury.

I don't think that him and dorsett aren't on the same page he just was throwing against the best corner in the game and assumed speed would be revis especially while being blitzed
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http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000540029/Colts-Andrew-Luck-finds-Phillip-Dorsett-for-35-yard-TD

I, personally, thought that was one heck of a throw. Dorsett was past his man with a safety in pursuit. If Luck put that ball 5 yards deep in the endzone, Dorsett would have either gotten crushed or that safety would have had a play on the ball. Luck, instead, put it right where Dorsett was protected and he put enough touch on it where only Dorsett was in position to make a play.

I think if dorsett doesn't score that they call PI cuz he never played the ball
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A lot of Luck's turnovers come from forcing balls into windows where it should not be forced..

The first couple years he had a problem throwing high.. Which isn't a bad thing, but he went through learning curve from College to Pros.

However the one on one balls that get intercepted are not always on the QB. They're taught to put it where their guy can go make a play, and I haven't seen a whole lot of fierce competition from our WRs getting open much less trying to catch it.

unforutnately he doesn't throw jump balls often he throws very fast high passes that are too hard to be caught with fingertips..he doesn't lob passes often like he did on the fade with moncrief..I think on the sideline Andre comes down with that 95% of the time like he did when he owned Davis on them with perfect coverage
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